BMY - Bristol-Myers Squibb Company

There may be an opportunity on a trade down to $59.18 back up to $61.78.

The engulfing candlestick is evident of more side-ways action in the interim as institutions gobble up positions and sell calls to finance trades. They are in no need to price this back at the highs.

 

68 calls?

weekly:

 

tempting to pick up some calls.

 

I just picked up some more AMD JAN 20 $8 calls instead, thus I will let you guys have all the fun.

 

Calls and puts are cheap, but their cheap for a reason -- no one is expecting a major move one way or another.
With volatility getting cheaper with each passing day, I think its best to buy some long dated calls if you trust BMY will bounce back at some point. In fact, long dated calls is were your seeing the bulk of the activity.

If this can trade down to $58 - $59, I would buy some for a longer term hold. Otherwise, I would stick with the stock as unattractive of an alternative as it may seem.

$58 - $60 likely represents a good spot to go long the stock long term, but

 

Anyone in? I picked up a few AUG 19 $61 calls before the closing yesterday.

 

Bristol-Myers stock drops nearly 9% after Merck announces positive lung cancer drug results
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/br...-cancer-drug-results-2016-10-10?siteid=yhoof2

 

funny, it is actually down becuz of Merck's results today...man, this will bounce right back quicker than backerball

 

We've got a huge gap to fill. BMY is long established and more than capable. Clinical trial setbacks happen. Undervalued. Long hold.

 

Up on Q3 beat

 

Bristol-Myers shares fall on lung cancer timeline setback

 

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently acknowledged Bristol Myers Squibb's application for deucravacitinib to treat moderate-to-severe psoriasis.

Key Points

• An FDA approval would open up deucravacitinib to a market of several hundred thousand psoriasis patients.
• This indication could generate nearly $700 million in annual sales for Bristol Myers Squibb.
• The company can provide income investors with a market-smashing 3.5% dividend yield.

In late November, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that it accepted Bristol Myers Squibb's (NYSE:BMY) New Drug Application for deucravacitinib as a treatment for patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis.

With the FDA targeting a decision on deucravacitinib in September 2022, let's dive into the drug's efficacy and sales potential if approved.

Clinical results that beat out Otezla
Paraphrasing the Mayo Clinic, psoriasis is a skin disease that results in red and itchy patches, especially on the knees, elbows, and scalp. The symptoms of psoriasis can include swollen and stiff joints, dry and cracked skin, and itching and burning skin.

Psoriasis can range from mild to severe in nature. Using the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI), the extent of the disease is measured by the surface area and severity for six regions of the body. PASI scores range from 0 to 72, according to WebMD. A PASI score greater than 10 is generally a moderate-to-severe case of psoriasis.

The first-line treatment for psoriasis is usually topical treatments. However, patients don't often comply for various reasons, which is evidenced by 50% to 70% compliance rates for topical treatments. If patients don't adequately respond to topical treatments, those medications are often discontinued or another treatment is added.


Deucravacitinib is one investigational drug that could soon become a part of many treatment regimens for patients struggling to manage their psoriasis. Bristol Myers Squibb enrolled nearly 1,700 moderate-to-severe psoriasis patients into two phase 3 clinical trials to examine the efficacy of deucravacitinib against placebo and Amgen's (NASDAQ:AMGN) blockbuster psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis drug Otezla. Half of the patients enrolled in the studies were randomized to receive 6 milligrams of deucravacitinib once daily, whereas the other half received either a placebo or 30 milligrams of Otezla twice daily.

Up to 59% of patients taking deucravacitinib achieved PASI 75 at week 16. This was significantly higher than the 40% rate for those receiving Otezla and nearly 13% of those taking a placebo. For context, PASI 75 means that a psoriasis patient's PASI score was reduced by at least 75%. The PASI score is calculated by accounting for a patient's PASI score both before and during treatment.

Significant sales potential
Deucravacitinib demonstrated itself to be a highly effective treatment for moderate-to-severe psoriasis patients. But how much would a potential moderate-to-severe psoriasis indication mean for pharma stock Bristol Myers Squibb in terms of annual revenue if approved?

First, there are roughly 7.4 million adults in the U.S. with psoriasis. What's more, it's estimated that about 20% of those patients have moderate-to-severe disease, which works out to nearly 1.5 million patients. Next, I'll assume that 30% of patients with moderate to severe disease aren't adequately controlling their condition. So, Bristol Myers Squibb's potential patient population is realistically around 450,000.


Because the market is flush with psoriasis treatments like Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) Tremfya, AbbVie's (NYSE:ABBV) Humira, and Amgen's Otezla, I expect that deucravacitinib will achieve a 6% patient share. This equates to 27,000 patients.

While pricing information for deucravacitinib won't be available until after it is likely approved by the FDA, I'll use Otezla's $47,000 annual list price as a guide. Because health insurers negotiate this amount significantly lower, I'll assume an annual net price of $25,000 per patient.

This works out to almost $700 million in additional annual sales for Bristol Myers Squibb. By itself, this is less than 2% of the company's projected $46.5 billion in sales. But with deucravacitinib in clinical trials for inflammatory bowel disease and psoriatic arthritis, Bristol Myers Squibb anticipates that the drug will reach peak annual sales of $4 billion.

A top-notch income stock at an attractive valuation
Bristol Myers Squibb is up 14% in the past month, which raises the following question: Should income investors buy the stock?


The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of only 7.9, which appears to be an appealing price considering that analysts are forecasting 6% annual non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next five years.

And the stock offers investors a well-covered, market-topping 3.5% dividend yield. Bristol Myers Squibb's high yield, decent growth prospects, and cheap valuation make it a stock that income investors should consider buying for their portfolios.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022...hoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

Bristol Myers Squibb is rewarding its shareholders with a huge dividend hike and a massive share-buyback program.

Kody Kester
(TMFkodyk123)
Jan 4, 2022 at 6:15AM
Key Points

• The pharma stock's capital return program is funded by its remarkable ability to mint free cash flow.
• Bristol Myers Squibb's balance sheet is in decent condition.
• The stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of just under 8.

Two signs that a company is focused on creating significant value for its shareholders are when the company boosts its dividend and when it repurchases its shares at attractive valuations.

Pharma stock Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) recently announced a 10.2% hike in its quarterly dividend to $0.54 per share. And if that wasn't enough to please shareholders, the company also authorized an additional $15 billion in share buybacks -- or nearly 11% of its $139 billion market capitalization.

This ambitious capital return plan raises two questions: Can the company afford it? And is the stock currently a buy? Let's dig into Bristol Myers Squibb's cash flow capabilities, balance sheet, and valuation to try to answer these questions.


Bristol Myers Squibb is a cash flow machine
At the heart of Bristol Myers Squibb's tremendous capital return program for shareholders is the company's anticipated production of between $45 billion and $50 billion in cumulative free cash flow (FCF) for shareholders from 2021 through 2023. That's approximately a third of its market cap in free cash flow in just three years, which would be amazing. But because some companies tend to overpromise and underdeliver, let's delve into whether this forecast is grounded in reality, or the management team has been wearing rose-colored glasses.

For the first three quarters, Bristol Myers Squibb had generated $12.1 billion in operating cash flow against $653 million in capital expenditures. In just nine months, the company has provided $11.5 billion in free cash flow for shareholders. At the rate it's going, this would work out to $46 billion in free cash flow between 2021 and 2023. Bristol Myers Squibb is positioned to hit the low end of its FCF target before even considering another important lever that it can use to bump its free cash flow even higher.


That lever is its $13.5 billion cash position as of the most recent quarter. This gives Bristol Myers Squibb flexibility to execute the purchase of a medium-sized company if it believed such an acquisition target could fit well within its existing drug portfolio.

Bristol Myers Squibb's 2021 free cash flow easily covered its $3.5 billion in share buybacks executed and $3.3 billion in dividends paid during that time. Simply put, the company is a free cash flow monster capable of affording its market-beating 3.5% dividend yield and significant share repurchases.

The balance sheet is solid
Bristol Myers Squibb is throwing off more than enough free cash flow to fund its dividend and share repurchases. But could the state of its balance sheet force the stock to cut back on the dividend or on share repurchases?

The company's ratio of debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is 2.2. Note that the company's EBITDA has varied wildly for more than a decade but the Q3 results are in line with its 13-year median of 2.2. While Bristol Myers Squibb's debt-to-EBITDA ratio is weaker than Johnson & Johnson's of 1.5, it's stronger than AbbVie's of 3.2.


Despite its generous capital allocation, Bristol Myers Squibb was able to reduce its long-term debt by $8.7 billion year-to-date (through Sep. 30, 2021), to $39.7 billion in the quarter. This indicates that the company can take a balanced approach to its dividend and share-repurchase activity, as well as to debt repayment.

Quality at a reasonable valuation
Bristol Myers Squibb appears to be a financially healthy business. But is it worth buying at the current valuation? Well, its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.9 is considerably lower than the drug manufacturing industry average of 11.4. This implies that the stock could be an undervalued dividend growth stock for income investors.

Let's also weigh its growth prospects against its industry. The company's forecast 6% annual earnings growth over the next five years is moderately lower than the industry average of 10%. This justifies a somewhat lower valuation multiple until the company proves that it can overcome looming patent cliffs on its top three drugs -- Revlimid, Eliquis, and Opdivo.

However, if you're an income investor who believes Bristol Myers Squibb's pipeline will be sufficient to move past its current top-selling drugs, the current $63 share price would seem to provide a nice buying opportunity.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022...hoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

$ 64.93

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY?p=BMY