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FIT - FitBit Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Cy McCaffrey, Mar 31, 2016.

  1. Cy McCaffrey

    Cy McCaffrey Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

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    Fitbit Inc. (FIT) is an American company headquartered in San Francisco, California. Founded and managed by James Park and Eric Friedman, the company is known for its products of the same name, which are activity trackers, wireless-enabled wearable technology devices that measure data such as the number of steps walked, heart rate, quality of sleep, steps climbed, and other personal metrics. The first of these was the Fitbit Tracker.

    On May 7, 2015, Fitbit announced it had filed for IPO with a NYSE listing. The IPO was filed for $358 million. The company's stock began trading with the symbol "FIT" on June 18, 2015.
     
  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Fitbit Blaze is beating Apple Watch on Amazon

    Fitbit Inc.’s new smart fitness watch is selling better than Apple Watch on Amazon.com.

    Fitbit said it shipped more than 1 million $199.95 Fitbit Blaze devices in March, exceeding the company’s internal expectations, in what was the first full month of the product’s availability following its CES debut earlier this year.

    The Blaze currently ranks as the No. 1 best-selling device in the smartwatch category of Amazon , nudging ahead of the $349.99 Apple Watch Sport.

    Separately, Longbow Research analyst Joe Wittine initiated coverage on Fitbit’s stock last week with a buy rating and $20 price target, which implies 32% upside to Tuesday’s closing price of $15.10. In a note to clients, he said checks with retailers indicate the Blaze had a huge first day in the U.S. “Short-term, Fitbit’s 2016 product cycle is off to a great start,” he said.

    Shares of Fitbit have surged 7.8% over the past week. The stock has plunged 38% over the last three months, however, on concerns over slowing growth, and high activity from short sellers, who have been betting against the stock. However, the average rating on the stock is the equivalent to buy, while the average price target is $23.17, according to a FactSet survey of 20 analysts.

    The Blaze is Fitbit’s attempt to compete with smart health wearables. While Blaze doesn’t have all the capabilities of full-service smartwatches, it can interact with apps on third-party mobile devices and has a significantly longer battery life—five days versus just 18 hours for Apple Watch. It is also a much more fashionable device than the Fitbit Surge, the company’s $249.99 running watch.

    Investors were initially skeptical of the Blaze and how it would compete in a space dominated by Apple Watch. Shares of Fitbit tumbled more than 18% in a single day on Jan. 5 when the Blaze was announced at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. In a statement on last Thursday, Fitbit Chief Business Officer Woody Scal said the Blaze’s stronger-than-expected debut demonstrates the company’s ability to innovate.

    Apple has yet to provide specific sales data for Apple Watch, but overall sales from the first quarter of the Apple Watch debut in 2015 indicated that initial sales may have underperformed expectations. Sales in the “Other” category on Apple’s income statement, which includes the watch, Apple TV and Apple Pay, grew by less than $1 billion that quarter, when analysts had been expecting $1.8 billion from initial sales from the watch alone, according to FactSet.

    Apple is still the clear leader in the smartwatch market. It captured more than 50% market share in 2015 with less than a year of sales, according to Juniper Research. On Thursday, Longbow’s Wittine said the Blaze doesn’t appear to be “bumping against” Apple Watch.

    LINK - http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tech...e-is-beating-apple-watch-on-amazon/ar-BBrbvOk
     
  3. DoveJohns

    DoveJohns Active Member

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    Since the beginning of March I bought and sold this multiple times all for gain. But soon after I sold, it went even higher to make me regretful for selling. I bought it again couple days ago and this time I want to stay in. I will probably be regretful after ER for not owning more shares as I expect a pretty clear beat. Please feel to chime in if you guys disagree or if I am missing anything. I can surely use some other views as I don't like to be overly bullish on any stock.

    Here are some facts that makes me bullish with FIT:
    - Down 65% from 52 week high
    - After last ER it dropped around 20-25% mainly based on soft outlook (saying it will be a transition Q for new products (i.e: Blaze) ).
    - It has a forward P/E of less than 13 which is based on a soft/pessimistic outlook... Really? For a fast growing company? Looks pretty CHEAP.
    - $0 debt
    - Potential buy out target
    - In March, they announced they actually ended up shipping more than one million units for EACH of their new products, Blaze and Alta, and customer response was good
    - Couple rating companies upgraded it since then

    - AAPL reported yesterday and we were told apple watch met expectations even though other parts of the business were disappointing.
    - Today GRMN reported and its results were good too.

    Long story short, in a market where Fitbit's competitors AAPL and GRMN can come up with good results, I dont think it will be hard for FIT to beat its overly pessimistic February outlook.

    I might actually add more tomorrow but I will see how things will look in the morning.


    Personal Note: I bought FITBIT Blaze Mid March. Even though, I was initially skeptical of FITBIT products I think these products are just spot on. I always thought, their products were mainly for women due to shape (thin, looks like bracelet etc.) and the nature of the product. I think this was also evident from my fitbit friends list where probably %80 were ladies. However, with the introduction of actual watch shape blaze and thicker alta, I think they are slowly attracting males too. 5 days of battery life is just amazing when you compare it to apple or any other competitors. The fact that you can easily change the bands is the best part. That way you can change it the way you want based on occasion or place you are wearing it to (sporty or professional). However, one thing they need to change is pricing of certain bands. Not many people will be willing to pay $130 for a metal band when the original price of the watch is $200 and there are already off brand alternative models all over the internet for much cheaper prices
     
    #3 DoveJohns, Apr 27, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2016
  4. DoveJohns

    DoveJohns Active Member

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    Lol I guess fitbit just can't win. As usual they beat their own and analysts estimates with flying colors ( estimates that caused SP to drop significantly after last ER)

    On top of that they even raised the full year guidance... But it drops just because Q2 guidance is lower than expected because they wanted to spend more on R&D? :eek:

    Hopefully it can go back down to $12-13 area again so I can buy some more :D
     
  5. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Reported after close yesterday (5/4/16)
    Earnings: EPS $0.10 Revenue $505.4M
    Estimates: EPS $0.03 Revenue $444.3M

    Down 11.63% in pre-market
     
  6. fidelgeorge

    fidelgeorge Active Member

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    If this goes to $13.5 I may close my entire position and buy $13 Calls. Define my potential loss and re-enter if it dips to $10
     
  7. DoveJohns

    DoveJohns Active Member

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    Seems like this stock will finally be able to get some fresh air. It is +7% premarket...

    It will be on a short squeeze watch with the market open. I believe more than 40-45% of shares are short (according to finviz it is 55%), might be an interesting day
     
    Andy Cannon likes this.
  8. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    How can you not like the below guidance? FIT has a history of guiding down while the street guided up, but not this time. From Q2 to Q3 they're predicting a possible 7 cent bump in EPS and over a 1.00 heading into the EOY.

    With 37% of the float short prior today, there is going to be a ton of covering. The gap down from May 4th's close of 17.10 still hasn't been filled yet.

    https://www.earningswhispers.com/epsdetails/fit

    Fitbit (FIT) reported 2nd Quarter June 2016 earnings of $0.12 per share on revenue of $586.5 million. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.11 per share on revenue of $580.2 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.15 per share. Revenue grew 46.5% on a year-over-year basis.

    The company said it expects third quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.17 to $0.19 per share on revenue of $490.0 million to $510.0 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $510.7 million for the quarter ending September 30, 2016. The company also said it continues to expect 2016 earnings of $1.12 to $1.24 per share on revenue of $2.50 billion to $2.60 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $2.57 billion for the year ending December 31, 2016.
     
    #8 Rock Sexton, Aug 3, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2016
  9. DoveJohns

    DoveJohns Active Member

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    Yup, short covering frenzy started. It broke over $15 (+15%) around lunch time and didn't really go back down except for some EOD profit taking. It seems as if it is currently consolidating around $15 level. I took some profits at 14.95 earlier today but I suspect this rally will continue tomorrow as well. Shorts will need to give up at some point due to consistent beats this stock has been coming with. They also don't seem to stop anytime soon as they have been consistently investing on R&D and M&A.

    Even though I like the company I still don't plan to hold it for long term. Good for swing trade

    Closed @ 14.94 (+13.53%)
     
  10. Lonnie Ray

    Lonnie Ray Member

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    Nice run lately. Looking at how far it has descended, I hope to see it get back to at least half of the IPO price.
     
  11. bigbull

    bigbull Active Member

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    These massively over shorted stocks can move and quickly. Take a look at other heavily shorted names -- GME, HLF, TPX or even OSTK.

    There is a small window of opportunity when they let some of these names move up in multiples as everyone that got comfortable shorting every extension of the rally is forced to cover at a higher price.

    These are the type of names you have to monitor each day, for when it moves, you'll get a relatively small window to make any money.

    There has been a lot of volume exchanged between $12 - $16. I am not too sure they'll let this trade below $13.50 - $14 unless the story changes.



     
  12. fidelgeorge

    fidelgeorge Active Member

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    11% drop in one day is not a joke with heavy volume, now next possible and attractive will be at and around $13. No position now
     
  13. Lonnie Ray

    Lonnie Ray Member

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    HUGE drop in AH on earnings miss.
     
  14. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Analyst Upgrade/Downgrade Update

    Brokerage firm: Pacific Crest
    Change: Upgrade
    Previous Rating: Underweight
    Current Rating: Sector weight
    Previous Price Target: N/A
    Current Price Target: N/A
     
  15. fidelgeorge

    fidelgeorge Active Member

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    Whoever held this long, why sell. I have no position, yet, but glad to buy from weak hands. Mark my words, going much higher.
     
  16. Gambit

    Gambit Member

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    Fitbit Inc. (FIT) shares got off to a good start in 2017 after a bevy of announcements at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas gave investors reason to be hopeful. But the optimism didn’t last long, with shares closing down nearly 6% to $7.33 Tuesday.
     

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