Stevie's Playbook

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Steven_Burt, Oct 30, 2016.

  1. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Hi Guys! I'm gonna give this thing a try here. Obviously I don't suggest anyone blindly follow anything I
    post and I would add if you follow anyone blindly you will probably blow up your account very quickly.

    I am a part time day trader with a full time job at UPS. I go through hot streaks and draw downs like every other trader I know. I consider my skills to be a little better than a complete newbie, but I am in no way a seasoned professional in this game..... YET :D

    The general idea is to Journal my watch list, progress, studies, etc. I think for now I will just be posting on the weekends but after the first of the year I may post up entries and exits during the trading day.

    Almost everything I trade will have a good daily chart imo, and I will be looking for specific intra day entries. Most stocks I trade will have at least 500k average daily volume, ATR over .75, price between $15 and $150 and a float of under 150m. At the open I tend to trade opening range break outs and red-to-green or green-to -red setups. After the open I am looking for trending names that flag.
     
  2. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    10/30 Entry

    HRTX
    Industry: Major Drug MFG
    Bias - Long
    14.90 stop
    Earnings on 11/7
    Fundamentals: they have cash and low debt. no profits
    Analyst: 1.6
    Strategy: Long on ORB or R/G, below 14.90 short.

    hrtx.png

    ************************************************************************************************

    ACAD
    Bias - Long
    Industry: Bio-Tech
    14.90 stop
    Earnings on 11/3
    Fundamentals: they have cash and low debt. no profits
    Analyst: 2.4
    Strategy: Long on ORB or R/G.

    acad.png



    ************************************************************************************************

    JUNO
    Bias - Long
    Industry: Bio-Tech
    24.50 stop
    Earnings on 11/8
    Fundamentals: they have a ton of cash and low debt. and profits
    Analyst: 2.2
    Strategy: Double Bottom, Long on ORB or R/G. This could be a strong swing candidate.

    juno.png



    ************************************************************************************************

    FOSL
    Bias - Long
    Industry: Retail
    25.95 stop
    Earnings on 11/3
    Fundamentals: they have a ton of cash and low debt. and profits, large short float.
    Analyst: 3.3
    Strategy: High risk trade, multiple taps on support. If they beat this will explode imo. could be an options set up.

    fosl.png
     
  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Bookmarked!

    This is awesome thank you starting your journal here Steve. I have personally been following you on this community since dating back to our years on HSM going back to at least since 2010 when I remember you first joined up there. So, I think this is going to be a real special treat for all of us to follow along in your own personal thread here. I'm going to make sure to check up into this thread routinely throughout the week. Thank you for sharing! :cool:
     
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  4. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    10/30 entry continued
    ************************************************************************************************
    CLVS
    Bias - Long
    Industry: Bio-Tech
    29.85 stop
    Earnings on 11/3
    Fundamentals: nothing good to say.
    Analyst: 2.7
    Strategy:
    Really nice Doji right at the ma50, moving up from oversold. Long on ORB or R/G.

    clvs.png

    ************************************************************************************************
    OPHT
    Bias - Long
    Industry: Bio-Tech
    31.49 stop
    Earnings on 11/8
    Fundamentals: No debt, lots of cash.
    Analyst: 1.8
    Strategy:
    Really nice Doji and extremely oversold . Long on ORB or R/G.

    opht.png
     
  5. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Finally a short:

    ************************************************************************************************
    LULU
    Bias - Short
    Industry: Retail
    59.10 stop
    Earnings on 12/1
    Fundamentals: No debt, some cash.
    Analyst: 2.5
    Strategy: Pull back to the ma20 and price resistance, near over bought. looking for a good intra day short.

    lulu.png
     
  6. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I'm still trying to figure what the best way is to do this, so if you guys have any comments or suggestions on what I should post or not post please let me know. Next weekend I think I will start off with my basic market analysis and sector analysis.. maybe??
     
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  7. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Good thread. Looking forward to following it. Best of luck!
     
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  8. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Last weeks watch list was pretty much dead on arrival as they were mostly longs and bio's. I made a mistake to be looking at so many bio's with the current political environment surrounding drug prices. Most charts broke down pretty much on Monday so I ended up trading momentum charts all week.

    There was one really good trade from the list on Monday that was a 6:1 risk/reward. It was also a good example of the red to green trade I like.

    Basically I am looking for a stock with a charts that I think is long biased. In this case it was OPHT and I had a short term long bias on it due to it being extremely oversold. The previous days close was 32.44 and it opened below that price. I entered as the price crossed back above 32.44.

    One strategy I use for exits is to move my stops in increments of risk:reward. The trade had a .50/share stop loss on it (just below the break out candle) so I had .50 risk. as the stock rises I trail the stop at increments of risk. At 32.94 I move my stop to entry, at 33.44 I move my stop to 32.94 (R1), at R3 I move the stop to R2, etc, etc.

    MON-OPHT.png
     
  9. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    11/6 Watch List:

    ************************************************************************************************
    SPLK
    Bias - Long
    Industry: Software
    57.50ish stop (long term trend line)
    Earnings on 11/17
    Fundamentals: No debt, lots of cash.
    Analyst: 2.0
    Strategy: At support and extremely oversold. Look for low risk entry above price support and the long term trend line, short below. Red to Green or Opening range type of trade.

    splk.png


    ************************************************************************************************
    SVXY
    Bias - Long
    Industry: n/a
    Stop: $1 below entry
    Earnings: n/a
    Fundamentals: n/a
    Analyst: n/a
    Strategy: The VIX rarely stays outside the Bollinger Bands for very long. SVXY is the leveraged inverse VIX etf. I suspect the markets this week to move up into the election and sell off on the news Wednesday morning, but the general idea is to short the VIX as the opportunity presents itself. Use a wide stop for levered etf's as they can be wild.

    1.png

    ************************************************************************************************
    RGLD
    Bias - Short
    Industry: Gold
    Stop: just above Fridays close of 75.82
    Earnings: 11/3
    Fundamentals: no cash no debt
    Analyst: 2.0
    Strategy: Outside the Bolloinger Bands and at resistance near the ma(100) Looking for a green to red low risk trade.

    rgld.png


    ************************************************************************************************
    FSLR
    Bias - Long
    Industry: Solar
    Stop: depending on entry
    Earnings: 11/2
    Fundamentals: imo this is one of the strongest stocks I have seen
    Analyst: 2.5
    Strategy: Way outside the Bolloinger Bands oversold and looking for a bounce. I think FSLR could be a great swing as well here.

    fslr.png
     
  10. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    11/13 Update

    Looking at last week's watch list my bias was 3 for 4 and SVXY and RGLD offered several intra-day opportunities all week. For me personally I had my best ever trading week and hit 3 1/2 times my weekly goal. :D

    11-13.png

    My bias for the overall markets this week is that we see a pullback. My simple short term take on this is that the SPY failed at the long term trend line test and we are at the top of the range. My longer bias of the markets is that we have been in distribution phase for a several months and I am watching for a blow off top or some other topping pattern scenario.

    spy_001.png

    11/13 Watch List:

    ************************************************************************************************
    AGIO
    Bias - Short
    Industry: Bio-Tech
    Stop: At break out
    Earnings: past
    Fundamentals: cash and no debt
    Analyst: 2.3
    Strategy: Insiders are bailing on this stock and it's a double top. looking for a green to red or ORB to the downside on this near break out level.

    agio.png

    ************************************************************************************************
    ACAD
    Bias - Short
    Industry: Bio-Tech
    Stop: depending on entry
    Earnings: past
    Fundamentals: cash and no debt
    Analyst: 2.2
    Strategy: Failed price channel break, enter below the ma(50) on the daily or perfect for green to red or ORB plays.

    acad002.png
    ************************************************************************************************
    TPX
    Bias - Short
    Industry: Retail
    Stop: depending on entry
    Earnings: past
    Fundamentals: cash and no debt
    Analyst: 2.3
    Strategy: Outside the BB's and failed at the price resistance and ma(50), looking for green to red, ORB or intra-day flags.

    TPX.png

    ************************************************************************************************
    PRGO
    Bias - Looking for resolution
    Industry: Health Care
    Stop: depending on entry
    Earnings: past
    Fundamentals: cash and no debt
    Analyst: 2.8
    Strategy: Right at a long term trend line and the ma(50). Long above both short on failure.

    PRGO.png

    ************************************************************************************************
    TRIP
    Bias - Long
    Industry: Tech
    Stop: depending on entry
    Earnings: past
    Fundamentals: some cash and no debt
    Analyst: 3.0
    Strategy: well outside the bb's and volume declining, looking for a dead cat bounce.

    trip.png
     

    Attached Files:

    #10 Steven_Burt, Nov 13, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2016
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  11. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    11-20 Update:

    Really nothing at all from last weeks watch list produced any trades this week. There was one exception. I remember telling my partners on Wednesday morning pre market that it was the day for AGIO to fall, It went green at the open and as soon as it went red it was a nice all day trender.

    I was wrong on my SPY take as well last week. It seems that the Trump trade is still strong. Being the gluten for punishment that I am, I am still thinking we get a pull back in SPY this week. We are coming into some pretty stiff price resistance and long term trend line resistance.

    spy20.png

    Some charts I like:

    ALGN: Failed break out and watching for more downside.

    algn.png

    SWHC: Is a break down pull back on lower volume. Right at long term trend line resistance and price resistance.

    swhc.png

    IMAX: Double top, extended and overbought(Sto starting to curl down)

    imax.png

    Short week this week guys, lots of the pro's will be gone and day traders will be pushing low float stocks around on low volume. Don't chase and stay safe.
     
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  12. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    That IMAX looks like a decent short opportunity, especially if the market heads south. Good stuff.
     
    #12 T0rm3nted, Nov 20, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2016
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  13. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    11/27

    Man I put a lot into this weekly watch list this week. It's pretty big, I have some longs and shorts.

    Longs:
    ***********************************************************************************************
    RCL: I like this flag a lot, we have resistance at 84.56 and above that we could really get going. Stop is just below 81.87 and it's off the list there until it remounts or provides a valid short setup.

    rcl.png
    ***********************************************************************************************
    HTLD: There are two close support area's so depending on your entry you can adjust for better R:R Targets are 22.28 and 23.50.

    htld_001.png

    ***********************************************************************************************
    CME: This stock has a slightly higher float than I normally like but I love the chart. Nice pull back on lower volume and over sold.

    cme.png
    ***********************************************************************************************
    AKAM: I would prefer a pull back to the ma(20) on this one but if it breaks the trend line I will take a low risk shot at it.

    akam.png
     
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  14. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    11/27

    SHORTS
    ***********************************************************************************************
    SAFM: Break down pull back with exhaustion candles at resistance.

    safm.png

    ***********************************************************************************************
    MOH: Break down pull back with exhaustion candles at ma(20) resistance.

    moh.png
    ***********************************************************************************************
    LULU: Break down pul;l back, over bought at the ma(50) and price resistance.

    lulu.png
    ***********************************************************************************************
    GPOR: Break down pull back over bought and at price resistance and the ma(50)

    gpor.png
     
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  15. Vegastrader66

    Vegastrader66 Member

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    Excellent List Stevie > Some great looking setups on both sides
     
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  16. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Thanks for the look and the response Tim! I really appreciate it man.
     
  17. Jazz007

    Jazz007 New Member

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    Nice picks Steven!
     
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  18. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Uh-Oh!! That's my girl! Team FB representing. :cool:
     
  19. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Guy's I trade with Jazz almost every day, she is an awesome trader!!
     
    #19 Steven_Burt, Nov 27, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
  20. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    12/18 Hey guys, just a quick note. I don't hardly ever trade in December. I'm still around and I'll continue with this thread in probably the 2nd week of January. Planning on trying some changes and some way for alerts at entry and exits.
     
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