Hi Guys! I'm gonna give this thing a try here. Obviously I don't suggest anyone blindly follow anything I post and I would add if you follow anyone blindly you will probably blow up your account very quickly. I am a part time day trader with a full time job at UPS. I go through hot streaks and draw downs like every other trader I know. I consider my skills to be a little better than a complete newbie, but I am in no way a seasoned professional in this game..... YET The general idea is to Journal my watch list, progress, studies, etc. I think for now I will just be posting on the weekends but after the first of the year I may post up entries and exits during the trading day. Almost everything I trade will have a good daily chart imo, and I will be looking for specific intra day entries. Most stocks I trade will have at least 500k average daily volume, ATR over .75, price between $15 and $150 and a float of under 150m. At the open I tend to trade opening range break outs and red-to-green or green-to -red setups. After the open I am looking for trending names that flag.
10/30 Entry HRTX Industry: Major Drug MFG Bias - Long 14.90 stop Earnings on 11/7 Fundamentals: they have cash and low debt. no profits Analyst: 1.6 Strategy: Long on ORB or R/G, below 14.90 short. ************************************************************************************************ ACAD Bias - Long Industry: Bio-Tech 14.90 stop Earnings on 11/3 Fundamentals: they have cash and low debt. no profits Analyst: 2.4 Strategy: Long on ORB or R/G. ************************************************************************************************ JUNO Bias - Long Industry: Bio-Tech 24.50 stop Earnings on 11/8 Fundamentals: they have a ton of cash and low debt. and profits Analyst: 2.2 Strategy: Double Bottom, Long on ORB or R/G. This could be a strong swing candidate. ************************************************************************************************ FOSL Bias - Long Industry: Retail 25.95 stop Earnings on 11/3 Fundamentals: they have a ton of cash and low debt. and profits, large short float. Analyst: 3.3 Strategy: High risk trade, multiple taps on support. If they beat this will explode imo. could be an options set up.
Bookmarked! This is awesome thank you starting your journal here Steve. I have personally been following you on this community since dating back to our years on HSM going back to at least since 2010 when I remember you first joined up there. So, I think this is going to be a real special treat for all of us to follow along in your own personal thread here. I'm going to make sure to check up into this thread routinely throughout the week. Thank you for sharing!
10/30 entry continued ************************************************************************************************ CLVS Bias - Long Industry: Bio-Tech 29.85 stop Earnings on 11/3 Fundamentals: nothing good to say. Analyst: 2.7 Strategy: Really nice Doji right at the ma50, moving up from oversold. Long on ORB or R/G. ************************************************************************************************ OPHT Bias - Long Industry: Bio-Tech 31.49 stop Earnings on 11/8 Fundamentals: No debt, lots of cash. Analyst: 1.8 Strategy: Really nice Doji and extremely oversold . Long on ORB or R/G.
Finally a short: ************************************************************************************************ LULU Bias - Short Industry: Retail 59.10 stop Earnings on 12/1 Fundamentals: No debt, some cash. Analyst: 2.5 Strategy: Pull back to the ma20 and price resistance, near over bought. looking for a good intra day short.
I'm still trying to figure what the best way is to do this, so if you guys have any comments or suggestions on what I should post or not post please let me know. Next weekend I think I will start off with my basic market analysis and sector analysis.. maybe??
Last weeks watch list was pretty much dead on arrival as they were mostly longs and bio's. I made a mistake to be looking at so many bio's with the current political environment surrounding drug prices. Most charts broke down pretty much on Monday so I ended up trading momentum charts all week. There was one really good trade from the list on Monday that was a 6:1 risk/reward. It was also a good example of the red to green trade I like. Basically I am looking for a stock with a charts that I think is long biased. In this case it was OPHT and I had a short term long bias on it due to it being extremely oversold. The previous days close was 32.44 and it opened below that price. I entered as the price crossed back above 32.44. One strategy I use for exits is to move my stops in increments of risk:reward. The trade had a .50/share stop loss on it (just below the break out candle) so I had .50 risk. as the stock rises I trail the stop at increments of risk. At 32.94 I move my stop to entry, at 33.44 I move my stop to 32.94 (R1), at R3 I move the stop to R2, etc, etc.
11/6 Watch List: ************************************************************************************************ SPLK Bias - Long Industry: Software 57.50ish stop (long term trend line) Earnings on 11/17 Fundamentals: No debt, lots of cash. Analyst: 2.0 Strategy: At support and extremely oversold. Look for low risk entry above price support and the long term trend line, short below. Red to Green or Opening range type of trade. ************************************************************************************************ SVXY Bias - Long Industry: n/a Stop: $1 below entry Earnings: n/a Fundamentals: n/a Analyst: n/a Strategy: The VIX rarely stays outside the Bollinger Bands for very long. SVXY is the leveraged inverse VIX etf. I suspect the markets this week to move up into the election and sell off on the news Wednesday morning, but the general idea is to short the VIX as the opportunity presents itself. Use a wide stop for levered etf's as they can be wild. ************************************************************************************************ RGLD Bias - Short Industry: Gold Stop: just above Fridays close of 75.82 Earnings: 11/3 Fundamentals: no cash no debt Analyst: 2.0 Strategy: Outside the Bolloinger Bands and at resistance near the ma(100) Looking for a green to red low risk trade. ************************************************************************************************ FSLR Bias - Long Industry: Solar Stop: depending on entry Earnings: 11/2 Fundamentals: imo this is one of the strongest stocks I have seen Analyst: 2.5 Strategy: Way outside the Bolloinger Bands oversold and looking for a bounce. I think FSLR could be a great swing as well here.
11/13 Update Looking at last week's watch list my bias was 3 for 4 and SVXY and RGLD offered several intra-day opportunities all week. For me personally I had my best ever trading week and hit 3 1/2 times my weekly goal. My bias for the overall markets this week is that we see a pullback. My simple short term take on this is that the SPY failed at the long term trend line test and we are at the top of the range. My longer bias of the markets is that we have been in distribution phase for a several months and I am watching for a blow off top or some other topping pattern scenario. 11/13 Watch List: ************************************************************************************************ AGIO Bias - Short Industry: Bio-Tech Stop: At break out Earnings: past Fundamentals: cash and no debt Analyst: 2.3 Strategy: Insiders are bailing on this stock and it's a double top. looking for a green to red or ORB to the downside on this near break out level. ************************************************************************************************ ACAD Bias - Short Industry: Bio-Tech Stop: depending on entry Earnings: past Fundamentals: cash and no debt Analyst: 2.2 Strategy: Failed price channel break, enter below the ma(50) on the daily or perfect for green to red or ORB plays. ************************************************************************************************ TPX Bias - Short Industry: Retail Stop: depending on entry Earnings: past Fundamentals: cash and no debt Analyst: 2.3 Strategy: Outside the BB's and failed at the price resistance and ma(50), looking for green to red, ORB or intra-day flags. ************************************************************************************************ PRGO Bias - Looking for resolution Industry: Health Care Stop: depending on entry Earnings: past Fundamentals: cash and no debt Analyst: 2.8 Strategy: Right at a long term trend line and the ma(50). Long above both short on failure. ************************************************************************************************ TRIP Bias - Long Industry: Tech Stop: depending on entry Earnings: past Fundamentals: some cash and no debt Analyst: 3.0 Strategy: well outside the bb's and volume declining, looking for a dead cat bounce.
11-20 Update: Really nothing at all from last weeks watch list produced any trades this week. There was one exception. I remember telling my partners on Wednesday morning pre market that it was the day for AGIO to fall, It went green at the open and as soon as it went red it was a nice all day trender. I was wrong on my SPY take as well last week. It seems that the Trump trade is still strong. Being the gluten for punishment that I am, I am still thinking we get a pull back in SPY this week. We are coming into some pretty stiff price resistance and long term trend line resistance. Some charts I like: ALGN: Failed break out and watching for more downside. SWHC: Is a break down pull back on lower volume. Right at long term trend line resistance and price resistance. IMAX: Double top, extended and overbought(Sto starting to curl down) Short week this week guys, lots of the pro's will be gone and day traders will be pushing low float stocks around on low volume. Don't chase and stay safe.
11/27 Man I put a lot into this weekly watch list this week. It's pretty big, I have some longs and shorts. Longs: *********************************************************************************************** RCL: I like this flag a lot, we have resistance at 84.56 and above that we could really get going. Stop is just below 81.87 and it's off the list there until it remounts or provides a valid short setup. *********************************************************************************************** HTLD: There are two close support area's so depending on your entry you can adjust for better R:R Targets are 22.28 and 23.50. *********************************************************************************************** CME: This stock has a slightly higher float than I normally like but I love the chart. Nice pull back on lower volume and over sold. *********************************************************************************************** AKAM: I would prefer a pull back to the ma(20) on this one but if it breaks the trend line I will take a low risk shot at it.
11/27 SHORTS *********************************************************************************************** SAFM: Break down pull back with exhaustion candles at resistance. *********************************************************************************************** MOH: Break down pull back with exhaustion candles at ma(20) resistance. *********************************************************************************************** LULU: Break down pul;l back, over bought at the ma(50) and price resistance. *********************************************************************************************** GPOR: Break down pull back over bought and at price resistance and the ma(50)
12/18 Hey guys, just a quick note. I don't hardly ever trade in December. I'm still around and I'll continue with this thread in probably the 2nd week of January. Planning on trying some changes and some way for alerts at entry and exits.