Stock Market Today: February 20th - 24th

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Feb 17, 2017.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of February 20th!


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]


    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    U.S. markets closed

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Medtronic, Macy's, Advance Auto Parts, Genuine Parts, Cracker Barrel, Lumber Liquidators, First Solar, Papa John's, Extra Space Storage, Newmont Mining, FirstEnergy, Morningstar, Newfield Exploration

    8:30 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

    8:45 a.m. Manufacturing PM

    12:00 p.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker

    1:00 p.m. 2-year note auction

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Tesla Motors, L Brands, HP, Cheesecake Factory, Boston Beer, Fitbit, Iamgold, Bayer, TJX Cos, Host Hotels, Norwegian Cruise Lines, Toll Brothers, Garmin, Chico's FAS, Southern Co, Six Flags

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    1:00 p.m. 5-year note auction

    2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Barclays, Kohl's, Gap, Nordstrom, Chesapeake Energy, Hormel Foods, Seadrill, Cinemark, AMC Networks, Kate Spade, Baidu, Splunk Imax, Intuit, Axa, NovoCure, Pinnacle Foods, Wayfair, Canadian Imperial Bank

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart

    9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

    9:45 a.m. Service PMI

    1:00 p.m. 7-year note auction

    • Friday

    Earnings: JC Penney, Royal Bank of Canada, Foot Locker, Public Service, Rowan Cos

    10:00 a.m. New home sales

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
     
    #1 Stockaholic, Feb 17, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2017
  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Dow, VIX, Gold All Up As Yet Another Ratio Screams "Record High"
    This market reminds us of this..."none shall fall"


    Gold remains 2017's biggest gainer, oil is down, bonds flat and the panic bid this week dragged The Dow higher...

    [​IMG]



    After 6 straight intraday ramps in the S&P 500, the last two days - since Catalyst stopped its forced covering - have seen the character of the market shift notably...

    [​IMG]



    On the week, Nasdaq was the big winner, followed by The Dow (as GS, JPM offset UNH)...NOTE the panic buying into the close...

    [​IMG]



    The S&P Tech sector is up 13 days in a row - every day in Feb -the longest streak in its 28 year history

    [​IMG]



    Just look at the panic in VIX crushing to spike The Dow green...

    [​IMG]



    This is easy...

    View image on Twitter
    [​IMG]


    Financials were the week's best performer (best week for banks in over 2 months) and Energy the biggest loser (worst week in over 3 months)...

    [​IMG]



    VIX was up and stocks were up...

    [​IMG]



    This was the largest divergence week between VIX and S&P in years... (S&P +1.3%, VIX +6.5%)

    [​IMG]



    Notable decoupling between stocks and bonds this week...

    [​IMG]



    Bonds end the week marginally higher in yield (2Y unch)... 4 days in a row of strong buying pressure during the US day session

    [​IMG]



    The USD limped higher to end the week green led by Cable weakness...

    [​IMG]



    Crude broke a 4-week winning streak and closed red (as the dollar rose for the second week), but PMs managed to eke out a gain...

    [​IMG]



    Stocks don;t care about oil anymore...

    [​IMG]



    NOTE: Hedge funds boost bullish WTI crude bets by 30,951 net longs to 390,338, new record high

    Finally, as Bloomberg's Cameron 'macroman' Crise notes, if you’re looking for another reason to get bearish US equities, try this: the ratio of equity to bond returns is approaching all-time highs in data going back 29 years.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    As discussed yesterday, the exuberance in the markets, as witnessed by the net positioning of large speculators, has reached records on both ends of the spectrum. Those extremes, combined with spiking levels of “hope” in both the financial and economic data is all too reminiscent of the past.

    I personally don’t like chart comparisons. Over the last couple of weeks, there have been numerous comparisons between the current market and that of the 1920’s, the 1980’s and just about everything else in between. The problem with similarities in market price patterns is that it fails to take into account the underlying factors such as employment, inflation, interest rates, and economic growth.

    When looking at those variables along with some technical indicators, we find similarities to past bull market peaks.

    “But Lance, all the economic data is improving. So the bull market still has room to go.”

    Let’s take a look at the chart below.

    [​IMG]

    In both previous bull market peaks we find, as measured as a percentage change from the previous bottom to current level, the following:

    • CORE INFLATION rose 11.7% and 7.1% just prior to the recession. Currently, Core CPI is up 11.1%
    • GDP GROWTH picked up by 7.5% and 5.1% just prior to the recession. Currently, GDP is up 6.8%
    • EMPLOYMENT was up from lows by 9.1% and 8.6%. Currently, Employment is up 19.0%
    • INTEREST RATES rose 50.8% and 51% from lows. Currently, Rates are up 87.9%
    As we saw just prior to the beginning of the previous two recessions, such a bump is not uncommon as the impact of rising inflation and interest rates trip of the economy. Given the extreme speculative positioning in oil longs, short bonds, and short VIX, as discussed yesterday, it won’t take much to send market participants scrambling for the exits.

    While I am NOT suggesting that we are about to have the next great market crash tomorrow, the current sensation of “Deja Vu” might just be worth paying attention to.

    In the meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend.

    Fed/Economy
    Markets
    Research / Interesting Reads


    “Better to be out of a bull market than fully invested in a bear market” – Bill Henry
     
  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here's how the major indices have fared WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017:
    [​IMG]

    Here are where the major indices stand since the Nov. 8th Presidential Election and Inauguration Day as of market close 2.17.17:
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the week:
    [​IMG]
     
  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    No need to fear protracted periods of subdued volatility
    [​IMG]
    Today the S&P 500 extended its daily streak of trading days without a 1% or greater decline to 89. Since 1950, there are only 15 other S&P 500 streaks of this duration or longer. The longest streak was 184 trading days in 1963. The average gain during the past 15 streaks was 12.67%. Compared to S&P 500 streaks lasting 79 trading days or longer this list has five fewer and is showing further improvement in post-streak performance. The chart above is the average performance of these past 15 streaks 30 trading days before the streak ended and 60 trading days after comparing 79 trading day and longer streaks to 89 day and longer streaks. The following table has S&P 500 returns over the next 1-, 3-, 6-months and 1-year after the streak ended.
    [​IMG]

    Presidents’ Day: Historically Bearish Day Before & After
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    Page 88 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017, points out Presidents’ Day as the poorest performing holiday of the eight holidays that are tracked. Unlike the others, the trading day before and the trading day after this three-day holiday weekend are both down on average over the past 34 years.

    Depending on how February lays out in a monthly calendar, the Tuesday after Presidents’ Day is either the first trading day of option expiration week or the week after options expiration week. In the tables below, the years when Presidents’ Day occurs in the week after option expiration are highlighted. This year, Presidents’ Day falls in the week after options expiration.

    Since 2011, the market’s performance around before and after the long holiday weekend has improved, most notably during the last three years. Some of this recent improvement could have been the result of sizable losses in January and the ensuing rebound rally. January was positive this year and the market has been storming higher into record territory, a long holiday weekend could be just the excuse traders need to trim long positions and book some profits.

    [​IMG]
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    New All-time Highs Confirm Bull Market Alive and Well
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    Once again the bull market has entered an extended period of strength that for some appears to defy logic and reason. S&P 500 has not experienced a daily loss in excess of 1% since October 11, 2016. Nor has it had a 5% correction since last June. Both are protracted time spans, but historically both have been exceeded before and by sizable amounts. The current bull market also managed to go nearly four years without a 10% correction. The brutal bear market that preceded it was unusual within historical context so it is not out of the question that the following recovery and associated bull market would be accompanied with some atypical behavior.

    Using a 20% decline as the definition of a bear market, there have been 11 bull markets including the current one and 10 bear markets since 1949. The previous ten bull markets lasted an average of 1770 calendar days and produced gains of 161.4%. Within these 11 bull markets there were 23 corrections ranging from 10% to 19.9% for an average of just slightly more than two corrections per bull market. The current bull market, at 2898 days old and 244.1% gain is above average in duration, magnitude and number of corrections. However, there have been longer bull markets with even more corrections.

    In the following table, each bull market has been broken down and includes the corrections that occurred within it. The bull markets beginning and end dates and closing prices are included and are used to calculate the “Days Between Corrections.” In each row labeled “Bull End,” that bull market’s duration and gain is calculated.

    [​IMG]
    The quickest correction was 18 calendar days in 1955 while the longest was 531 from September 1976 to March 1978. The longest the S&P 500 went without a 10% correction was 2553 calendar days from October 1990 until October 1997. The second longest streak without a correction occurred in the last bull market that ended in 2007 when the S&P 500 went 1673 days. The fewest number of days between corrections was 35 in 1974.

    The S&P 500’s current streak of 368 days is less than the average amount of time between corrections and is not of major concern. The previous streak lasted 1326 calendar days and ended with the S&P 500 sliding 14.2% over 266 days. Past bullish periods were often devoid of corrections. Low volatility and extended age do not kill bull markets, crumbling economic data and/or geopolitical/exogenous events do.
     
  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Where Does The Trump Rally Rank?
    Posted by lplresearch

    In honor of President’s Day this Monday, we’ll look at how the S&P 500 has done the first month after various presidents took office. Going back to 1950,* there have been 12 presidents, and using only their first-term returns, the best first month ever for the S&P 500 was a 6.8% bounce after President Johnson took office in November 1963. This is extremely surprising, given this rally took place after President Kennedy was assassinated. The worst first-month return was a 14.4% drop after President Ford took office in August 1974.

    Where does President Trump rank? Take note that he won’t be in office one full trading month until Tuesday’s close, so there are still two full days to go, but as of now the S&P 500 is up an impressive 3.3%.

    [​IMG]

    Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Equities had a big bounce after President Trump won the election and have continued to add after the inauguration. Although there are many questions about the new president’s policies (many of which we analyzed here), equities markets are clearly taking the mounting questions in stride and looking ahead to better times.”

    Have a great three day weekend everyone!

    A Year Since The Lows, What Have We Learned?
    Posted by lplresearch

    Happy anniversary 2016 S&P 500 lows! A year ago on February 11, the S&P 500 closed at 1829.08, some 14% off the all-time highs and a fresh new 52-week low. It was a scary time, as we saw high-profile calls to “sell everything,” while many other firms cut their year-end targets. With the S&P 500 down more than 10% year to date after 28 trading days, it was the worst start to a year ever—so calls like that might sound senseless today, but at the time it didn’t seem so outrageous.

    We noted at the time that the amount of fear we were seeing after a 14% correction was more in line with previous 50% market crashes, so there was a chance things were overdone. Also, bad starts to a year historically weren’t a reason to sell. Things are never that black and white, and we too were concerned events could quickly spiral out of control. However, looking at past history and sentiment helped us to expect the bull market to continue and equities to finish the year up mid-single digits (although the S&P 500 managed to exceed our target and gain 9.5% for 2016, we are happy with our call to stand pat a year ago).

    Now the big question is: How do you know things have officially turned around? Was there a clear signal a year ago that the worst was indeed over? We noted one signal at the time as potentially very positive, and it stood out over all the others from 2016. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “The S&P 500 closed higher at least 1.5% for three consecutive days off the February 2016 lows, but this also took place coming off a 52-week low. This incredibly rare combo had only happened three other times since 1950,* and the S&P 500 was up 23.9% a year later on average and higher all three times. Sure enough, the S&P 500 has been up 20.1% since the signal last February.”

    Not to be outdone, during the previous eight times when the S&P 500 was up 1.5% for three consecutive days (so not necessarily off a 52-week low, but anytime), the index was higher a year later all eight times, with an average return a year later of 20.1%.

    [​IMG]

    This is just one signal, and a sample of only three is very tough to put our full faith into it. However, when other factors like sentiment, fundamentals, and valuations all supported the bullish case (like they did a year ago), a rare signal like this could be what we are looking for to support the bullish case and suggest the worst is indeed over.

    We will leave with some of the impressive returns over the past year; what a 12 months it has been!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The Nasdaq Just Did Something It Last Did In 1999 – Time To Worry?
    Posted by lplresearch


    With equity markets breaking out across the board, the real winner so far early in 2017 has been the Nasdaq. In fact, it has made new all-time highs on six consecutive days for the first time since December 1999. Anytime we see “December 1999,” it brings back bad memories of what was right around the corner for tech stocks (about a 90% drop) and the first three-year bear market for equities since the Great Depression.

    So, is this another major warning sign for tech and maybe even the equity markets as a whole? Fortunately, we don’t think so, and here are some reasons why. For starters, when you hear Nasdaq, you think of tech stocks. Here’s the catch: Tech stocks don’t make up nearly as much of the Nasdaq as they once did. Incredibly, tech is less than half of the Nasdaq today. This could be a positive sign, as this influential group isn’t seeing the type of love it did 18 years ago, and the Nasdaq isn’t so top heavy in one group.

    [​IMG]

    Earnings season has gone very well for technology, as earnings have jumped nearly 11% year over year, with only financials sporting a larger gain. Given these two groups are also the largest components of the S&P 500, we like what we are seeing on the earnings front.

    Last, let’s take a look at just tech—not the Nasdaq. Doing this shows a much different picture, as tech is nowhere near the relative strength leader it once was. In fact, the Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index isn’t even above its peak from 2000 yet! Hard to say something is in a bubble if it isn’t even at new highs yet.

    Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Tech has lagged the overall S&P 500 for nearly 17 years now. When you compare the tech group versus the S&P 500 on a relative basis, a potentially bullish saucer bottom* appears to be forming. Should tech continue to outperform in 2017, this will confirm the breakout and tech could have substantial room to run.”

    [​IMG]

    There’s a popular old technical analysis saying that “the longer the base, the higher in space,” meaning the longer something bases, the more significant the move higher might be when the eventual breakout takes place. Above is one of the better looking examples of this pattern that you’ll ever see**.
     
  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Leading/Coincident Indicator Rises In January
    Feb 17, 2017

    In January, the Conference Board’s Leading Indicator for the US economy rose 0.6% MoM versus 0.5% MoM expected. While the absolute change in the Leading Indicator was certainly positive, we prefer to look at how the Leading Indicator performs relative to the coincident indicator index. The level of this reading isn’t particularly important but its direction is a very good advance warning of approaching recessions. As shown in the chart below, the ratio between the Leading and Coincident Indicators tends to drop sharply immediately before and during a recession. Over the last few months, the ratio has started to turn upwards again after a period of stagnation since the post-recession high print of 1.098 in June 2015. A new high print, which looks quite likely after the 1.097 level printed this month, would be an indicator that recession isn’t likely in the near term. With a number of other pieces of economic data suggesting a ramp up in business activity and consumer spending, the Leading/Coincident Indicator ratio adds to the case that a recession in US economic activity is still nowhere close.

    [​IMG]

    One Down, 47 (or 95) Left to Go
    Feb 17, 2017

    Given Monday’s holiday for President’s Day, today’s close will mark the end of President Trump’s first month in terms of stock market returns. Based on where the DJIA is currently trading, it was a very good first month. As shown in the table below, the DJIA has gained nearly 4% during President Trump’s first month in office. Somewhat surprisingly, relative to the 19 other Presidents that have assumed office since 1900, the DJIA’s return during Trump’s first month ranks as number six behind Johnson, Coolidge, Taft, FDR, and Bush I. Perhaps the most surprising performance of the Presidents shown is Johnson and Coolidge, who saw gains of 7.11% and 5.69%, respectively. The first month of Johnson’s tenure was the month that followed the assassination of a sitting US President (JFK), while Coolidge’s first month followed the sudden death of another sitting President (Harding). Apparently, the stock market’s ability to shake off shocking political news isn’t just a phenomenon confined to the last 12 months.

    [​IMG]

    The First 100 Days: An Accessible Rally
    Feb 17, 2017

    It has now been 100 days since President Trump was elected last November and contrasting the headlines and appearance of turmoil in Washington, US equities have seen one of the steadiest and strongest rallies for a newly elected President on record. Since Election Day last November, the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) is up just under 10%, but what is really interesting about the rally is where the gains have taken place. The chart below breaks down the returns of SPY between market hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM) and overnight returns (4:00 PM through the 9:30 opening bell). Often, when you see a big market rally, a lot of the gains come from ‘gaps’ where overnight news or events cause the market to open significantly higher, and unless you were long overnight, you miss out on the move.

    What is notable about the rally since the election is that the majority of the gains have come during market hours. As shown in the chart, the cumulative gain of SPY during market hours since Election Day has been a gain of 6.74%. In other words, if you bought at the open and sold at the close every day, you would be up 6.74% and eliminated any possible risk of holding equities overnight. Conversely, if you bought at the close and sold at the open every day since the election, your cumulative gain would be 2.7%, which is less than half of the gain from being long during the trading day. In addition to being one of the strongest and steadiest rallies following the election of a newly elected president, the rally of the last 100 days has also been one of the most accessible too!

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 2.17.17
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
     
  9. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-
    In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-
    We also now have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-
    Lastly, we have the monthly market poll & monthly stock picking challenge threads now open as well!-

    First the monthly market sentiment poll for March-
    And here is the monthly stock picking challenge for March-
    And finally we have an SPX price target poll up and running as well-
    It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join us and participate on these.

    Hope you all have a fantastic long 3-day weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  10. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Also, just a reminder in here -- the markets will be closed on Monday for President's Day.

    Here is the CME Globex holiday schedule:
    [​IMG]

    Have a nice long 3-day weekend everyone! :)
     
  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 2.20.17 Before Market Open:
    NONE. (MARKETS CLOSED FOR PRESIDENT'S DAY)

    Monday 2.20.17 After Market Close:
    NONE. (MARKETS CLOSED FOR PRESIDENT'S DAY)

    Tuesday 2.21.17 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 2.21.17 After Market Close:
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    Wednesday 2.22.17 Before Market Open:
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    Wednesday 2.22.17 After Market Close:
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    Thursday 2.23.17 Before Market Open:
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    Thursday 2.23.17 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
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    Friday 2.24.17 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.24.17 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
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  12. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  13. Vegastrader66

    Vegastrader66 Member

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    Happy Saturday everyone,
    Here is this weeks market wrap and sector watch video.

    The markets had another impressive week for the bulls and took a well deserved pause towards the end of the week but still managed to close higher on Friday with a late day bounce. Retail and consumer discretionary will be the main focus next week as we get a plethora of earnings from the sectors next week.
     
  14. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

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    Do we get any down ticks this week, or is it still the superman market? Up up and away?!
     
  15. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

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    I was going to add to my short position here:

    Short.jpg

    But I'm bothered by what I'm seeing on the bid ask. Usually, the bid ask at this time of night is in the 50-100 range. A large amount gets to the 200 range.

    But sitting at 2353.50 was an order for over 1.3k buying.

    That's huge. I've watched it drop down into the 700's but it's back up into the 800's now. While the order size at 2353.75 is a normal 100.

    I so want to go short here, but man, that's a huge number for this time of night. Can't see how the after hours folks can eat through that.
     
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  16. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Gonna be a long, slow day with the market being closed.
     
  17. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Howdy y'all! Been a crazy couple of week...and I mean at work..but oh yea, the Markets too! Looks like the RUT broke out to the upside this past week -- clearly! Maybe I'm becoming blinded by my own wants / desires here, but I don't know...YES it broke out & made a new ATH...but is it REALLY breaking out for a continuation of the trend? I have to say that it is, trying to be objective here because I still have some BCS positions on the SPX which are freaking me out right now (help!)

    So..being objective...the RUT broke out of what did turn out to be a bull flag / consolidation. Nice, multi-day confirmation with a new ATH set. Might see a little cool off here, so what I am looking at now is that 1386 - 1392 level (depicted with the thin orange lines) which, so far, is forming a nice support area. This is off the previous intraday ATH & the close that same day, i.e. where the ceiling used to be. Pretty nice 20ish point range for the RUT to float in if it wants to. If this area holds up during the short week, then despite my personal wants & desires, I have to be a big Bull for the RUT.

    We'll see...

    Daily RUT.jpg

    In other news, hope everyone o the East Cost is enjoying this heat wave. Guess Mother Earth dying isn't so bad after all -- feels pretty nice, actually!
     
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  18. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Hope everyone had a nice long weekend and are ready for a new week, fresh start! :D
     
  19. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    FOMC minutes come out on Wednesday. That might be the thing to slow this run.
     
  20. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

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    Seems like a long run since the election back in November. If we end this month up, that's 4 months of upward movement. That means only 3 more months to go of up, up and up!
     

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