Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 23rd! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: McDonald's, Yahoo, Halliburton, Brown and Brown, Zions Bancorp Tuesday Earnings: 3M, Johnson and Johnson, DuPont, Alibaba, SAP, Travelers, Verizon, Corning, DR Horton, Kimberly-Clark, Lockheed Martin, AK Steel, Janus, Samsung Electronics, Texas Instruments, Alcoa, Capitol One, Seagate 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed non manufacturing 9:45 a.m. Markit manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. Existing home sales Wednesday Earnings: Boeing, United Technologies, Abbott Labs, Freeport McMorRan, Hess, Illinois Tool Works, Textron, AT&T, eBay, Qualcomm, Citrix, WW Grainger, Las Vegas Sands, Cullen/Frost Bankers, Murphy Oil, McKesson, Norfolk Southern 9:00 a.m. FHFA home price index Thursday Earnings: Intel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Caterpillar, Comcast, Dow Chemical, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Unilever, Biogen, Northrop Grumman, Blackstone, Praxair, Potash, Alaska Air, PulteGroup, LM Ericsson, LVMH,Raytheon, Southwest Air, Stanley Black & Decker 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 9:45 a.m. Markit services PMI 10:00 a.m. New home sales Friday Earnings: Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Honeywell, American Airlines, General Dynamics, Air Products 8:30 a.m. Durable goods 8:30 a.m. Q4 Real GDP 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
Gold Pops; Banks, Bonds, & Greenback Drop As Trump Takes Office Quite a week... this seemed appropriate... Gold remains 2017's big winner with bonds and stocks close to unch... Trump's actual swearing in (and speech) sparked a notable drop in stocks and pop in VIX...But in a desperat attempt to keep The Dow green, VIX was monkey-hammered But VIX ended the week higher... On the week, Nasdaq and Trannies desperately tried to get back to green but Dow, S&P and Small Caps lost ground (Russell 2000's worst week in the last 7)... The Dow managed to get back into the green for 2017 US Financials suffered their worst week since September 9th 2016... (Goldman Sachs' worst week since April 2016) Treasuries had their worst week in six weeks...(notably 2Y ended the week best - unch) The USD Index fell for the 4th consecutive week (longest losing streak since Feb 2016).. The Loonie was the worst on the week and cable best... The Mexican Peso was lower on the week again (6th week on a row) but ripped higher today by the most since the election!! And as The Dollar slides, so Gold is up 4 weeks in a row (longest win streak since July)... Crude managed to scramble back to unchanged on the week...
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Trump - The Best (Or Worst) Of Times Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Today is the day. It’s inauguration day for Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States. For half of you – it is the beginning of an economic resurgence last seen during the Reagan administration. It is the “best of times.” For the other half – it is the beginning of the “dark ages.” So goes politics. But politics and investing are poor bedfellows. As investors, it is in our best interest that Trump is successful in his plans to “Make America Great Again.” After all, if you have been enjoying the rally that began in November, that lift has come specifically based on expectations of lower taxes, fewer regulations and increased infrastructure spending. But this is also the day “it gets real.” While the markets have lifted on “expectations,” the market will now start to focus on actual “actions.” Of course, what was talked about during “campaign mode” and what actually comes to fruition are always two very different things. This is not only because proposals and promises will be met by stiff opposition from the opposite side of the aisle, but push-back will come from Trump’s own party as well. Increases in the national debt, the deficit and reforms to health care, taxes, immigration and social welfare programs are not going to be easy negotiations. In many cases, the promises made will never come to fruition, and in others, the end result could be very different than currently envisioned. Then there are simply the headwinds that currently face the economy from demographics to structural issues as well as the age of the current economic cycle. Economics and political policies don’t exist in a vacuum. While Trump has many ideas to promote growth in the economy, the debt, tighter monetary policies, and budget constraints will provide some offsets. While there are many hopes from Wall Street, economists and analysts the current bull market is only in the midst of a long-term run higher, there are many conditions which currently suggest caution; particularly if you are close to retirement. I can only surmise how this eventually turns out. In the meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend. Trump Trump, South China Sea & Potential For War by James Rickards via Daily Reckoning Yellen: We Are Close To Goals & Set To Hike by Akin Oyedele via BI Gundlach: Trump, Fed & Stocks by Bob Bryan via Business Insider Trump FAQ For Davos by Rob Cox via Reuters America’s Growth Depends On The Trump We Get by Alexis Christoforous via Yahoo Hayek Warning For Trump by Cass Sunstein via Bloomberg No, The Dollar Isn’t Too Strong by John Tamny via RCM Trump Vs. The U.S. Dollar by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times Will Trump’s Hiring Freeze Test Regulators Independence by Aaron Klein via RCM Trump, Corporatism & Dearth Of Innovation by Edmund Phelps via Project Syndicate Will Trump Be Pro-Monopoly? by Justin Talbot-Zorn via RCM The Coming Corporate Tax Reform by Milton Ezrati via City Journal Economists Are The Barrier To An America That Is Great by Jeffrey Snider via RCM Mapping Trumps 100-Day Executive Action by Clyde Crews via Forbes Markets / Fed Yellen Explains Monetary Policy – Seriously by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge What Happens To Stocks After Inauguration by Greg Guenthner via Daily Reckoning Illusions Driving Up U.S. Asset Prices by Robert Shiller via Project Syndicate Dimon: Like The Trump Rally, Just Wait by Matthew Belvedere via CNBC Hedge Funds Making Extreme Bets On Trump by Matt Turner via BI Bond Bear Already Looks Shaky by Scott Dorf via Bloomberg Trump Will Volatility Great Again by Doug Kass via Real Clear Markets U.S. Markets: Alarm Bells Are Ringing by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man blog 4-Risks For 2017 by Jeffrey Kleintop via Charles Schwab Here’s How To Play The Trump Presidency by Rachael Levy via BI Why Goldman Is Pessimistic On Stocks In 2017 by Sara Sjolin via MarketWatch How The Trump Rally Stacks Up by William Watts via MarketWatch Interesting Reads Retailing In America: Bricks & Torture by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong Davos Thinks It Runs The World by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch 25-34 Year Olds – Now & Then by Linette Lopez via BI Why Is the Pre & Post-Market Trading by Neil Irwin via NYT Student Debt Walloping Mom & Grandma by Abha Bhattarai via Washington Post Presidents Have Less Economic Power Than You Think by Neil Irwin via NYT Deci: Relationship Between Need & Motivation by Shane Parrish via Farnam Street 4-Words You Are Supposed To Hate by Richard Rosso via RIA Student Debt Payback Far Worse Than Believed by Andrea Fuller via WSJ These Are The Top 10 Infrastructure Projects For Trump by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge 14 Experts Give Their Best Advice by R.J. Weiss, CFP via The Ways To Wealth Why I Sing Cassandra’s Song by John Hussman via Hussman Funds Potential Tailwind For Bonds by Dana Lyons via Tumblr Single Greatest Mistake Investors Make by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report ““In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” – Ronald Reagan, First Inaugural Address, Jan. 20, 1981
Multiple Seasonal Patterns Converge at 6-8% Full Year Gains This Friday, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States and a new administration will be in place. The market’s rally since Election Day has been one of this best in records going back to 1952 at various points along the way and remains near the top today even after some mild losses. The pace of gains has slowed as an increasing number of traders and investors ponder whether or not the rally can continue. Based upon the following seasonal pattern charts, the rally has a reasonably good chance of lasting, but gains are likely to be limited to around 6-8% at yearend for DJIA and S&P 500 and around 10% for NASDAQ. In the above charts, four different seasonal patterns are plotted alongside 2017 year-to-date as of today’s close. The baseline is “All Years” and includes every year of data. DJIA data begins in 1901, S&P 500 in 1930 and NASDAQ is since 1971. 2017 is a post-election year and a comparison to “All Post-Election Years” is included. This year will also be the first year of a new administration which is represented by “1st Year of New Administration.” Lastly, “7th Years of Decades” is included. 7th Years of Decades have a rather nasty history and are the second worst performing year for DJIA going back to 1881 (page 129 of Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017). Zero years have the worst record however; we don’t place much emphasis on the decennial cycle currently as the four-year presidential cycle exhibits more influence. Sunset on the Obama Presidency Jan 19, 2017 The sun is literally setting for the last time on the Presidency of Barack Obama, and despite what can only be characterized as the worst start for the stock market under a President’s term in office, equities rebounded early on in Obama’s tenure staging one of the longest and strongest bull markets in US history. Through Thursday, the DJIA is up over 148% (not including dividends) since the close on Inauguration Day 2009, and that ranks as the fourth best return for the DJIA under any President since 1900. The title of best ‘stock market President God ever created’ belongs to Calvin Coolidge who presided over a gain of 251.7% during his time in office. Coolidge was followed by Clinton (227%), and FDR (197%). Outside of these four Presidents, the only others who saw triple-digit returns under their watch were Reagan (135%) and Eisenhower (120%). On the other side of the coin, Herbert Hoover presided over a decline of over 80% under his watch, while the second George Bush saw the DJIA fall 22% under his watch. Recent Asset Class Performance — International Markets Bounce Jan 17, 2017 Below is a look at the recent performance of various asset classes using key ETFs that we track on a daily basis. For each ETF, we show its performance year-to-date, since the Fed hiked rates on December 14th, and since the close on Election Day 2016 (11/8/16). Most US equity ETFs (left side of matrix) are up between 0-2% so far year-to-date, but the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been a standout to the upside with a 2017 gain of 3.95%. The Dow 30 (DIA) has lagged with a gain of just 0.60%. Looking at sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Telecom (IYZ) are up the most YTD, while Energy (XLE) and Consumer Staples (XLP) are down the most. Since the Fed hiked rates in mid-December, the Energy sector is the only area of the US market that has felt any kind of pain (-2.48%), while Consumer Staples is down less than 1%. Since the election, the Financial (XLF) and Telecom (IYZ) sectors are the only ones up more than 10%. Outside of the US, many countries have already posted nice gains in 2017. Brazil (EWZ) is up 7.8% YTD after posting a big gain in 2016 as well. Hong Kong (EWH) and Australia (EWA) are both up more than 5%, while Canada (EWC), China (ASHR), India (PIN), and Japan (EWJ) are all up more than 3%. Mexico (EWW) is the only country on our matrix that is down year-to-date, and that follows a very weak Q4 as well. Looking at commodities, gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have both gotten off to good starts to 2017, while oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) are in the red. Treasury ETFs are up both YTD and since the Fed hiked rates, but they’re all still down since the election.
Just How Boring Have Things Been? (Part 1) Posted by lplresearch A funny thing happened after the third-largest rally, since 1900, for the Dow from the U.S. election until year-end (+7.8%)—it is now in the midst of the smallest monthly range ever. That’s right, with the Dow flirting with the big 20,000 level, it has simply stopped moving, up or down, and the daily ranges have been historically small. Going clear back to 1900, using closing prices, the Dow has traded in a range of only 1.07% over the past month (21 trading days), for the smallest monthly range ever in history. The bottom line is tight ranges don’t stay that way forever, and higher volatility sometime later this year is very likely. Let’s consider another way to look at this: the intraday high-to-low range over the past month (21 trading days) has come in at an all-time low of only 1.42% over the past month (using intraday highs and lows). Going back to 1970, using reliable intraday data, only the summers of 2014 and 2005 were the other times to even see a range less than 2%. What makes the monthly range so rare for the Dow is it is also happening right near all-time highs. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Incredibly, the Dow has now traded 45 straight days within 1.5% of the all-time high. When you consider the past month has also been the smallest monthly range ever, we have an index that climbed right up to 20,000 and simply froze.” Just How Boring Have Things Been? (Part 2) Posted by lplresearch After 10 days of the year, the S&P 500 is up 1.3%, which might not sound like much, but it is a lot better than the down 8.0% after the first 10 days of 2016. As we mentioned yesterday, the Dow is in a historically tight trading range over the past month, and today we will take a look at some interesting stats from the S&P 500 recently. Since Thanksgiving 2016, the S&P 500 has alternated between higher and lower for the week for eight consecutive weeks—for only the tenth time since 1928.* There was a record streak of 11 alternating weeks back in 2015. The S&P 500 hasn’t closed more than 1.5% away from an all-time high for 46 consecutive days, the longest streak since 72 in a row in summer 2014 and early 1995. On an intraday basis, the S&P 500 hasn’t had a 1% intraday move for 21 consecutive days—the longest streak since 25 in a row in late 2014. Over the past month (21 trading days), the S&P 500 has traded in a range of only 1.7% (using closing prices). Other times we’ve seen ranges like this were September 2016, September 2014, January 2014, April 2013, September 2012, and January 2007. In other words, what we’ve seen over the past month is very rare, and usually we see surges in volatility over the coming months after periods like now. The S&P 500 has now gone 66 consecutive days without a 1% drop, tying the 66 days from summer 2014. Last, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was beneath its long-term average of 19.7 for the fifth consecutive year in 2016. As this chart shows, volatility rarely stays this low for this long. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Of course, it doesn’t mean volatility can’t be beneath the long-term average for another year or two, but be aware this period of a lull in volatility is getting long in the tooth. Coupled with economic uncertainty, despite some upside to growth prospects with the new administration, this further increases the chances of much more volatility later this year.”
Here are where the major indices stand since the Nov. 8th Presidential Election and Inauguration Day as of market close 1/20/17-
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!- Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (1/23-1/27) <-- click there to open! In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!- Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (1/23-1/27) <-- click there to open! We also now have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!- Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (1/23) <-- click there to open! Lastly, we have the monthly market poll & monthly stock picking challenge threads now open as well!- First the monthly market sentiment poll for February- Monthly SPX Poll - February 2017 Sentiment <-- click there to open! And here is the monthly stock picking challenge for February- Stockaholics February 2017 Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to open! It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join us and participate on these. Have a fantastic weekend everyone!
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 1.23.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Monday 1.23.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Tuesday 1.24.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Tuesday 1.24.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Wednesday 1.25.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Wednesday 1.25.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Thursday 1.26.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Thursday 1.26.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Friday 1.27.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: (CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS RELEASES!) Friday 1.27.17 After Market Close: NONE.
Just putting this in here for anyone who might find this interesting. Wanted to share with y'alls a spreadsheet that I generated a few weeks back but had added a few new things to it last night. This spreadsheet is absolutely ginormous as it literally has the entire stock market on it lol. It's a real-time updating stock spreadsheet that I created on Google Sheets (similar to what I use for all of our weekly stock picking challenges here at Stockaholics). What that basically means is that this spreadsheet literally updates prices on the fly automatically (no need for the user of hitting a refresh button or anything like that). Obviously it only updates when the markets are open. This spreadsheet has most every common company that is listed on the 3 major U.S. exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX) with all the stocks listed in their respective exchange (which I have separated in the tabs). As I said this spreadsheet is gargantuan. If you're using an older model computer it is possible that this spreadsheet will be extremely laggy and slow to load for you. The nice thing about google sheets is that you guys are able to temporarily sort by whatever columns you wish to sort by w/o completely wrecking my spreadsheet lol. In addition, I believe you guys should be able to pull up any ticker directly by simply hitting "CTRL+F" on your keypad within the spreadsheet and then just typing in the stock symbol of the company you're looking for. Hopefully the lag/freeze isn't too bad for you all. I use a relatively new machine myself and even that take a few seconds to get the data to populate initially. But, once it goes through that initial start up process then all is fine. Anyway, just wanted to quickly share this in here. This spreadsheet is sort of like a "scanner" if you will. Obviously there are sites & services for this kind of stuff like FinViz offers. The only difference here is that with my sheet the data updates in real-time. Unlike on FinViz which is delayed about 15 minutes. Unless you have the Elite pay service which not everyone does. Anyway, w/o getting into further ado, here's my full stock market spreadsheet. Let me know what you all think! Click the button below to view my real-time stock market spreadsheet- <-- Click there to open!
Earnings releases due out for this upcoming week ahead: ($BABA $MCD $MSFT $HAL $GOOGL $AKS $T $LMT $F $FCX $VZ $AAL $JNJ $INTC $BMY $GLW $MMM $AA $CELG $BA)
Oh man I just noticed I crossed 4K posts! Just want to say a big thx to all who make this community what it is. The greatest on the 'net.
You're beasting this weekend @Cy McCaffrey yikes! A Google spread of the entire stock market?! Holy hell man! Congrats on topping 4K I just noticed that I'm official an "Active Member" now -- catching up to ya...riiiiiiight!!! Hope you're getting some time in to enjoy your weekend! Thanks for all you do here!
Goodness Cy! With all those posts here, perhaps you could tell me which way the market will go this coming week? I'd sure like to make some money.
We have a busy week ahead for earnings and that could determine which way the market heads in the near term. Technically we still look constructive for the bulls but earnings could change that. Shippers, Agriculture, Gold, Semis, Communication equipment are sectors that look strong while Financial's and the oil sector should also be watched closely. on the flip side small caps could be weakening and biotech's continue to struggle. Have a great week trading everyone
I think the RUT is starting to show some weakness -- but with none of the RUT's moves being confirmed yet -- I remain neutral. Thursday, we saw an actual close below the RUT's chop area floor @ 1355. Friday AM, the RUT had a strong pop to that level, but immediately pulled back below, with the rest of the day chopping where it pulled back to...but not once did it re-test that level. The RUT really needs a confirmed move above 1355 in order for the Bulls to retain control, otherwise... That orange STL might be coming into play. That STL is currently below the 200 MA on the 2-hour and the 50 DMA...the latter being the MA that RUT kissed on its close below the chop one on Thursday. Might be a telling day tomorrow...tough to say...so much negativity over the weekend...but still, I think the RUT re-enters the chop zone above 1355. Hope everyone had a great weekend! Here we go again...
Wow thanks for that @Value543 coming from you that means a lot to me. Weekend was awesome. Hope you had a great one as well! I just gotta say it again here man but it is seriously members like yourself who make this coming community happen in a big way IMHO. I really cannot stress this enough but it's such a great honor to have you back posting on here regularly again. It had been hugely missed around here. Keep 'em coming as it is greatly appreciated! I really enjoy reading your daily market insights. EDIT: Oh and congrats on the "Active Member" title here finally haha. Speaking of "titles" what do you guys think about us bringing back the analyst titles here on Stockaholics again? Eg, for example if you all remembered, we used to have analyst titles back on the old HSM boards like: Junior Analyst Senior Analyst Stock God etc... But perhaps this time we could do a bit differently on the names here on Stockaholics. Hmm... Thoughts? Perhaps I should bring this over to the Stockaholics Suggestion Box thread though...