Stock Market Today: January 2nd - 6th

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Dec 30, 2016.

  1. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    9,524
    Likes Received:
    3,526
    When does the big sell off of 2017 begin?
     
  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    8,448
    Likes Received:
    3,268
    Next week, week after at the latest.
     
  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    my crystal ball is pointing to around the inauguration ... but we'll see

    vix approaching that 10-handle again o_O
     
  4. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,319
    Likes Received:
    3,375
    With the strength in Bitcoin, I wonder if we've seen the low in gold. GDX/GLD ratio testing the 200-day average.
     
  5. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    9,524
    Likes Received:
    3,526
    Retail not looking good, bad xmas sales

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSKBN14P1G9

    Thu Jan 5, 2017 | 12:01 PM EST
    Dismal holiday sales at Macy's, Kohl's spell gloom for sector


    Disappointing holiday season sales at Macy's Inc (M.N) and Kohl's Corp (KSS.N) underscored the uphill task department stores face in winning back shoppers, who are increasingly turning to online retailers and spending less on apparel.

    Macy's shares were down 14.4 percent in morning trading on Thursday and Kohl's 18.3 percent after both reported lower-than-expected sales for November and December and cut their full-year profit forecasts.

    Shares of other department store operators, including J.C. Penney Co Inc (JCP.N) and Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N), also fell as the dismal showing came as a shock to investors, given heightened expectations of a bump in holiday spending this year.

     
  6. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    9,524
    Likes Received:
    3,526

    You know.. A market with no QE supporting it something an entire massive group of new investors have never known. I suspect this market come back to equilibrium this year.
     
  7. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2016
    Messages:
    719
    Likes Received:
    151
    How long has there been no QE?

    Seems like that was over awhile ago.
     
  8. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,584
    Likes Received:
    4,619
    Bonds and gold up big today while the dollar is down pretty big :eek:
     
  9. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    9,524
    Likes Received:
    3,526
    I guess I should rephrase. Im interested in to see normalization in the sense that there are rising rates back to what ever is considered normal these days.

    Remember when owning bonds was an actual way to earn income in the old days?
     
  10. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    8,448
    Likes Received:
    3,268
    I'm 28, what's a bond?
     
  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    Since you guys bring it up, I thought I would whip up a chart showing all of the QE's.

    Ever since QE3 ended in late 2014, we've essentially been going sideways really up until the Presidential Election.

    Also note how after the end of each QE we went through a pretty serious market correction.

    I suppose one could say we went through a correction "through time" once QE3 ended as well.

    This is now the first time that we're moving meaningfully higher w/o QE. Albeit, most of it coming on a post-election move though. How long does this last?

    [​IMG]
     
    #91 Stockaholic, Jan 5, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2017
  12. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,584
    Likes Received:
    4,619
    Trump needs to deliver on fiscal spending and tax cut or this market gonna selloff hard :p
     
  13. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    9,524
    Likes Received:
    3,526
    Here is my analogy, QE was the Fed putting flooring the pedal and spinning the wheels hard to get us out of the hole and start the uphill climb.

    We shifted into 2nd gear, 3rd and 4th gear, now we took our foot off the pedal, but the momentum is still carrying the vehicle foward.

    Gravity is still fighting us, we are going to see the effects this year.
     
    Baggi and Stockaholic like this.
  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,584
    Likes Received:
    4,619
    Chinese stocks having a pretty good day, BIDU and BABA up pretty nicely
     
  15. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2016
    Messages:
    719
    Likes Received:
    151

    Add to this that you won't have a media covering up or spinning negative economic news, but rather, highlighting it, and we are in for quite the correction/recession.
     
  16. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    9,524
    Likes Received:
    3,526
    Depends who you mean by "media".

    Fox News being the biggest player on the field will not be spinning negative economic news, Im pretty sure they will blame every bad tick on Obama :D
     
  17. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2016
    Messages:
    719
    Likes Received:
    151
    Fox news is small compared to ABC, NBC, CBS, The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, etc, etc.
     
  18. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2016
    Messages:
    719
    Likes Received:
    151
    Based off of this chart, I'm currently bullish on the overall market.

    Bullish.jpg

    This is an hourly chart. We have touched that short term trend line 3 times (Green circles) and we have an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming here.

    Each time we touch the upper trend line chances of pushing through it get stronger and stronger. Plus, we haven't been able to move below the long term monthly trend line (Dotted yellow line) going back 15 years with any sort of conviction.

    So, this is looking mighty bullish in the short term.
     
  19. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2016
    Messages:
    719
    Likes Received:
    151
    I'm looking for a pullback tonight to the SMA, a little dip below it, to go long. My stop will be below today's low if that happens.

    I may also cap my upside and mitigate my risk some by selling a call option out of the money.
     
  20. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    1,039
    Likes Received:
    723
    is gdx having a repeat of last year?
     

Share This Page