Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of May 30th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Bird's Eye view of the Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Memorial Day holiday Tuesday 8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending 9 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI 10 a.m. Consumer confidence Wednesday May vehicle sales 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10 a.m. ISM manufacturing, construction spending 2 p.m. Beige book Read MoreSummer rate hike odds pop after Yellen comments Thursday 7:45 a.m. European Central Bank rate decision 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 8:30 a.m. Initial claims; ECB President Mario Draghi press briefing 1 p.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan Friday 3:45 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in London 8:30 a.m. Employment report; international trade 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing, factory orders 12:30 p.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard at Council on Foreign Relations, DC Saturday 3 a.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
Spoiler: Stocks Soar On Hawkish Fed As Gold Suffers Worst Week In 6 Months Must.Stay.Green.In.May... So despite weaker than expected GDP, and tumbling GDP expectations... Yellen has jawboned rate hike expectations up to record highs for July... And stocks loved it!?? Stocks had their best week in over 3 months - mainly driven by a panic bid on Tuesday as Fed speakers went full hawktard... And here are futures this week... just unreal... As S&P cash was squeezed up toward 2,100 and VIX near a 12 handle once again... #FAIL 2098.87, and 13.10 So to be clear, The Fed signals as loud as possible that rate hikes are coming to ensure it has ammo "in case of a shock," everyone proclaims that The Fed is stirring up volatility...and VIX collapses?! For now it looks like the short-squeeze has stalled... Volume was non-existent.. even for a pre-Memorial Day market... Yen plunged on the stronger dollar inferred by Yellen's hawkishness - catching up to stocks... Treasury yields ended the week (early) 1-3bps higher with the short-end underperforming... As 2s30s plunged after Yellen's comments to end the week 2bps flatter... So Buy Banks!!?? Stocks and bonds decoupled from the close of Europe on Tuesday... one wonders if Yellen called Draghi again? The USD Index managed to scramble back into the green for the week after Yellen spoke as EURUSD tumbled to 1.1100 - 2 month lows... Commodities were mixed despite the gains in the dollar with crude and copper strong and PMs weak... Gold fell for the 4th week in a row (for the first time since Nov 2015) and dropped over 3% on the week (the worst week since October)... Charts: Bloomberg Bonus Chart: For all those claiming there is money on the sidelines or that this is the most-hated rally... Net Longs in S&P Futs and minis are at their highest in 18 months... h/t @DonDraperClone how the major indices have fared wtd, mtd, qtd, ytd up to this point: s&p sectors for the week:
ER in the holiday-shortened week ahead: $KORS $MDT $AVGO $AMBA $LPG $BNS $CBRL $TIVO $WDAY $ZOES $SFL $FRO $VRA
ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5.29.16 - Why June Should Move Higher Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Pivot points usually work a treat on the FTSE 100 when the US is closed. Typically, it's a national holiday here in UK on Monday also
Shortened Memorial Day Week Not So Hot Recently Next week’s shortened trading week has a mixed record going back to 1971. Back in the May/June Disaster Area days when DJIA and S&P 500 were down 10 of 17 Mays from 1971-1987, the week after Memorial Day was a poor performer. DJIA, S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 all declined more frequently than not with average losses ranging from .22% to .39%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 performed slightly better. Beginning in 1984 and lasting until 1995, Memorial Day week performed exactly the opposite (shaded in grey below). With the exception of three individual losing weeks by different indices, gains were as prevalent as Memorial Day BBQ’s. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 all enjoyed average gains of 1.78% to 2.02%. However, during this period NASDAQ and Russell 2000 underperformed. Since 1995, the overall record is mixed. There was a four-year span of respectable gains from 2006 to 2009, but since 2010 losses have dominated. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have all been down in five of the last six Memorial Day weeks. If post-Memorial Day strength fails to buoy the market, then it would we susceptible to profit taken especially now that it is near resistance once again.
when I was in the Army, we were doing our duty but were more interested in beer + women after work...lol
morning traders! hope y'alls had a very nice long holiday weekend! gl to you all in this new trading week ahead!
