Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 28th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Shoe Carnival, ZTO Express, Thor Industries Tuesday Earnings: Tiffany, Splunk, Autodesk, Malinckrodt, Bank of Nova Scotia, Nutanix 8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q3 second 9:00 a.m. S&P/Case Shiller home prices 9:15 a.m. New York Fed President William Dudley 10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence Wednesday Earnings: American Eagle Outfitters, La-Z-Boy, Box, Synopsys, Royal Bank of Canada, Guess, Pure Storage, Semtech, PVH 8:00 a.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 8:30 a.m. Personal income 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI 10:00 a.m. Pending home sales 12:35 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester 2:00 p.m. Beige book Thursday Monthly vehicle sales Earnings: Toronto-Dominion Bank, Dollar General, Ulta Salon, Lands' End, Kroger, Express, Canadian Imperial Bank, Ambarella, Workday, Smith & Wesson, Five Below, Ascena Retail 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Cleveland Fed's Mester 9:00 a.m. Dallas Fed's Kaplan 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending Friday Earnings: Big Lots 8:30 a.m. Employment report 12:30 p.m. Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo 12:30 p.m. Cleveland Fed's Mester
Trump Unleashes Best Rally In Stocks Since 1996 Seriously...Must keep it together thru the Black Friday weekend! 15 Straight days up... The longest winning streak since 1996. Nothing to see here, move along... (the last time Small Caps rose for a longer streak was March 1988) (best 3 week gains since March 2009) The week was.. well easy.. Even after 3 weeks of incessant buying there was nothing to stop the panic bid into the close... The long-end of the Treasury curve rallied this week, with the 30Y Yield ending down 1bps (short-end up 7bps)... As the Treasury yield curve collapses to near 3-month flats... Yen and Yuan led the weakness that sent the USD higher once again... The Onshore Yuan has gone 16 days without a notable gain against the USD (weakening for 6 of the last 7 weeks), seemingly catching down to the trade-weighted basket's drop... Gold and Silver suffered as safe-havens were abandoned (as USD surged) and India gold import bans weighed them down...Gold's worst 3-week run since July 2013 (taper tantrum) Crude gave the week's gains back as hopes of a deal floundered...
Typically Strong December Slightly Weaker in Election Years December is the number one S&P 500 month and the second best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.6% on each index. It’s also the top Russell 2000 month and third best for Russell 1000 (1979). December is NASDAQ’s second best month. Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. When it does it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback. Conversely if the market has been through the ringer of late and December is down as well, then expect a rally to ensue shortly. In the last sixteen election years, December’s ranking slip modestly to #3 S&P 500, #5 NASDAQ, but DJIA remains #2. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have had a field day in election-year Decembers. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just once in nine election years in December. The average small cap gain in all nine years is a solid 3.0%. The Russell 2000’s single loss was in 1980 when the Prime Rate was 21.5%. Market trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. Regardless, December is laden with market seasonality and important events.
Equities + Presidents = Potential Gains (Except During Recessions) Posted by lplresearch 53 years ago today, on one of the darkest days in our country’s history, President John F. Kennedy was assassinated. A disruptive event that scarred the nation, over the coming weeks and months people still went to work and corporate America continued to function even as the nation mourned. Our economy and stock can be incredibly resilient, in this case the S&P 500 gaining more than 24% the next 15 months. Markets continue to be driven, above all else, by corporate fundamentals and just yesterday the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closed at new highs for the first time since December 31, 1999. Some will hear that date and immediately think this is a bearish signal, as that date was very close to the end of an 18-year bull market. Here’s the catch: We saw all four major indexes also make a new high a total of 47 times during the 1990s. In fact, the first time it happened was on December 31, 1991, when the S&P 500 closed at 417.28. In other words, it went on to gain approximately 252% from the first signal in 1991 to that fateful signal in late 1999. According to Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “We might hear a lot how the last time we saw various indexes all making a new high was December 31, 1999, and that was a very ominous time to be long equities. That is true, but what you might not hear is how this signal also happened dozens of times during the 1990s, and none of those times suggested anything other than a broad-based market rally.” With the election and past returns still a very popular question, in honor of JFK, today we decided to break down the S&P 500 returns by president. We’ve already looked at it by four year cycle recently, but this is a slight twist and goes by each president’s actual term in office. The bottom line is the majority of the time you’ll see equity gains while a president is in office, unless the economy has a recession. The Great Depression, the recession in the early 1970s, and both recent recessions all pushed equity prices lower while the various presidents were in office. We’ve said this before and we’ll say it again: the current economy is the strongest any new president has walked into since Bill Clinton in the early 1990s. This could bode well for continued gains into at least next year. Please note: The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Prior performance incorporates data of the predecessor index, the S&P 90.
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!- Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (11/28-12/2) <-- click there! In addition we have our weekly stock picking contest now up and running as well!- Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (11/28-12/2) <-- click there! We also now have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!- Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (11/28) <-- click there! And lastly we have a Fed poll...will they hike, will they stand pat? Vote!- Fed Poll: Will the FOMC raise rates to <0.75% on Wednesday December 14th @ 2:00PM ET? <-- click there! Oh and we also have a newly created Santa Claus Rally poll! Will Santa deliver a market rally this year or not? Vote!- Santa Claus Rally in 2016? Yes or Not? Vote! <-- click there! It would be pretty awesome to see some of you regulars here at Stockaholics join us and participate on these sentiment polls & challenges! Have a fantastic weekend everyone!
Oh and I almost forgot to post these in here as well ... but these are our upcoming monthly stock picking contest & sentiment poll threads for December in case any of you missed them earlier- Monthly SPX Poll - December 2016 Sentiment <-- click there! Stockaholics December 2016 Stock Picking Contest <-- click there! In addition as we're coming up to the new year 2017 we've got a handful of new market polls for you folks to vote on- SPX - 2250 or 2150? Which one comes first from here? Vote! <-- click there! Dow Poll: Will the DJIA cross 20K in 2017? Vote! <-- click there! /GC Gold Futures - $1000 or $1400 next? Vote! <-- click there! /CL Crude Oil Futures - $30 or $60 next? Vote! <-- click there! /DX US Dollar Index Futures - $105 or $95 next? Vote! <-- click there! 10-Year Treasury Note Yields - 3% or 1.75% next? Vote! <-- click there! Will the Euro hit parity against the USD in 2017? Yes or No? Vote! <-- click there! U/J - 130 or 100 next? Vote! <-- click there!
So, going into this week here's what we've got going: Nearly all of the major U.S. indices are into new ATH territory. Most of the "offensive" sectors of the S&P 500 outperforming since the U.S. presidential election -- in particular Financials which continue ripping a new one. The U.S. Dollar just going gangbusters hitting yet another fresh 14 year high this past week. Commodities getting crushed largely in part due to the strong dollar. However, Copper very strong which might be suggesting the potential for global growth ahead. Treasuries continuing to sell off and hitting fresh lows for the year. VIX still hovering near post-election lows. How about them small caps index Russell 2K? Now up ... get this ... for 15 days in a row! We haven't seen a streak quite like that in 20 years! This thing has officially gone full retard! Incredible. And don't look now but the Dow Transports are now less than 3% away from their respective ATHs as well ... who woulda thunkit after the way the Transports were demolished during last year's and the beginning of this year's correction! Not too shabby at all. Dow Theorists with a raised eyebrow on this one!
This week's most anticipated earnings releases: ($ULTA $SWHC $KR $DG $AMBA $MNK $TIF $AEO $SFUN $BERY $LEJU $BOX $SPLK $BNS $ADSK $FRO $WDAY $PVH $SOL $TNP)
Nov 25 - Dec 2 2016 Market Wrap and Sector watch Technically the Bulls remain in control and we are breaking out of ranges in several indexes and sectors. We could grind higher right into the end of the year
I'm pretty short this market right now. Been losing a small percentage just about every day as the market grinds higher. Thankfully I'm still about 75% cash. So, I'm about to get even shorter. Although I'm content to wait until my target prices are hit. For example, right now I'm short the /ES with one 2210 long call and 2 2220 short calls. This means I break even at 2230. If we reach 2230, I'll close the long spread. Then I'll buy back the 2220 short call and sell a January 2250 call. I've also got an oil spread that I'd like to see make some money. It was up about $120 and now it's down after our down day the other day. If the next two weeks we can stay about $38 I'll be a happy camper.
I'm not sure anyone is going to care unless it starts to look like things may change. Seems like right now everyone assumes it's just a way for Jill Stein to make money and Clinton to remain relevant for awhile longer.
