Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of October 31st! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: T.BA. Bird's Eye view of the Major Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Honda, Cardinal Health, Anadarko Petroleum, Diamond Offshore, Tesoro, Tesoro Logistics, Embraer, Public Service, Check Point Software, CNA Financial, Southern Co, Williams Cos, Tenet Healthcare, NextEra Energy, General Growth Properties, Lumber Liquidators 8:30 a.m. Personal Income 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI Tuesday Fed meeting begins Earnings:BP PLC BP, Occidental Petroleum, Pfizer, Royal Dutch Shell, Archer Daniels Midland, Coach, Cummins, Discovery Comm. Kellogg,LyondellBasell Inds, Martin Marietta Materials, Molson Coors Brewing, Sony, Thomson Reuters, Noble Energy, Molson Coors, Electronic Arts, Pioneer Natural Resources, Western Union, Tableau Software, Western Union, Gilead Sciences, Etsy, Zillow, U.S. Steel, Newfield Exploration,Owens and Minor, Papa John's, Square, Wingstop Monthly vehicle sales 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending Wednesday Earnings: Facebook, AIG, Qualcomm, MetLife, Allstate, Continental Resources, Avis Budget, 21st Century Fox, Allergan, Time Warner,Anthem, Clorox, Alibaba, Fitbit, Estee Lauder, Delphi Automotive, TransCanada, Zoetis, Yelp, NY Times, Och-Ziff Capial Management, Kate Spade, Whole Foods, TransOcean, Plains All American, Marathon Oil, First Solar, La Quinta, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, LPL Financial 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 2:00 p.m. FOMC statement Thursday Earnings:Kraft Heinz Co Kraft Heinz, CBS, Starbucks, Las Vegas Sands, Activision Blizzard, Credit Suisse, Cigna, Encana, Adidas, AMC Networks, Church and Dwight, Chesapeake Energy, Fortress Investments, S&P Global, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Hyatt, Pinnacle West, Time Inc,G FireEye, GoPro, Fossil, Ambac, Twilio, Weight Watchers,Noodles and Co, Lions Gate, TrueCar, TiVo, Skyworks, El Pollo Loco 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing 10:00 a.m. Factory orders Friday Earnings: Humana, Duke Energy, Madison Square Garden, Shutterstock, Centerpoint, AES, NRG Energy, Regeneron, Virtu Financial 8:30 a.m. Employment report 8:30 a.m. International trade 4:00 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer at IMF on policy changes after great recession
Markets 'Turmoil' After Comey Crashes Clinton Party Mainstream media today... Betting markets saw Hillary odds slide... Here is the reaction across asset classes to the FBI headline... And of course, there is the Peso... VIX spiked above 17 on the headlines... Another day with no closing ramp... US Stocks markets dumped en masse at the FBI headline... S&P 500 cash closed near a very critical level... On the week, Small Caps were the worst as Trannies and The Dow clung to gains... (worst week for Russell 2000 since Feb 2016 to lowest in almost 4 months) With one day left in the month, Small Caps are the ugliest (set for the worst month since January!) Healthcare was slugged after MCK's comments to 7 month lows... The USD Index tumbled on the FBI headlines today, dragging it back into the red for the year... Treasury yields were mixed today (short-end rallied down 2-3bps, long-end unch) with a notable 10bps steepening on the week in 2s30s... Copper was the week's biggest winner and crude crumbled to a $48 handle close... Copper was up 5 days in a row this week for the best week in almost 8 months... And crude dropped to near one-month lows... Charts: Bloomberg
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Stuck In The Middle - Again Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, I have written previously about being stuck in a trading range. “Over the past couple of months, we have continued to drift from one economic report, or Central Bank meeting, to the next. Each report and meeting have continued to leave market participants confused as to what is going to happen next. Is the economy improving? Or not? Will the Fed hike rates? Not? The bulls and the bears have met at the crossroad. However, neither is ready to commit capital towards their inherent convictions. So, for 43-days, and counting, we remain range bound waiting for what is going to happen next.” Chart updated to present: The problem with going nowhere is that it makes managing money much more difficult. With the market having broken the bullish trend line from the February lows, as shown below, along with remaining overbought with a sell signal in place, the risk to the downside outweighs the potential for a further advance currently. With downtrend resistance from the previous highs pushing prices lower, the risk of a break below 2125 is elevated. Being a bit more cautious given the current technical backdrop will likely be prudent. While there are many simply suggesting just to buy into passive indexes and hold them, the brutal reality to such strategies have destroyed the ability for many to ever actually reach their investment goals. However, despite the weight of evidence suggesting the markets are currently in a third bubble since the turn of the century, the commentary to ignore the outcomes related to such asset inflations is actually quite astonishing. Such is the result of a market seemingly immune to declines due to continued support, or at least belief thereof, from Central Banks. But, just as was witnessed following “The Great Depression,” the bursting of the next asset bubble will likely once again drive participants away from the market for an entire generation, or longer. The problem for individual investors is the “trap” that is currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. Ignoring the last two to chase the former has historically not worked out well. Alas, that is a story for another day, for now, we remain “stuck in the middle” waiting on an election outcome. In the meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend. Fed / Economy 5 Biggest Global Economic Challenges by Anthony Fensom via National Interest One Thing The Next Pres. Needs To Know by Joseph Stiglitz via Vanity Fair World In A Major Cyclical Upturn by Eric Bush via GaveKal American Job Recovery Is A Global Laggard by Narayana Kocherlakota via Bloomberg The Blind Ally Of Monetary Populism by Jeffrey Frankel via Project Syndicate What Could Go Wrong In America by Martin Feldstein via Project Syndicate For The Fed, The Dollar May Be A Problem by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners The Fed Could Pull A November Surprise by Patti Domm via CNBC Fed Is On A Collision Course by Financial Sense Recession Risk Is Rising by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge Many Americans Balancing 2 or 3 Jobs by Paul Davidson via USA Today Yellen Has Many Questions, Few Answers by Dr. Ed Yardeni via Yardeni Research Markets Globalization Fading To Black by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong Time To Move Past The Election by John Tobey via Forbes Next Year’s Ticking Time Bomb by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard via The Telegraph Stock Market Stuck In Danger Zone by Michael Sincere via MarketWatch Chasing Yield Is Not A Good Plan Now by Michael Kahn via Barron’s A Chart To Help You Find Market Direction by Adam Koos via MarketWatch Next 10-Years Will Be Ugly For Your 401k by Suzanne Woolley via Bloomberg All Signs Are Flashing Market Is At Risk by David Rosenberg via Financial Post Most Of What You Think About Investing Is Wrong by L. Hamtil via Fortune Financial Charts That Scare WallStreet by Kawa, Verma, Verhage and Kim via Bloomberg Interesting Reads September New Home Sales: Let Revisions Begin by Aaron Layman via AaronLayman.com Are Our Magazine Covers A Contrarian Indicator by Buttonwood via The Economist Who Will Pay For Clinton’s Tax Code Social Engineering by Alex Brill via RCM When You Should Claim Social Security Early by Sharon Epperson via CNBC Is US QE More Toxic Than Japan’s QE by Paul Murphy via FT Corporate America’s Bogus Election Excuse by Paul La Monica via CNN Money The Story Behind The Story Of Home Resales by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners Our Deplorable Ruling Class by John Stossel via Reason Failure Likely Regardless Of Who Wins by Mike “Mish” Shedlock via MishTalk.com Losses Hurt More Than Gains by Adam Taggart via Peak Prosperity The End Of Stock Buybacks by Bryan Borzykowski via Morningstar Future Of Investment Management via The Thought Factory Chasing Stocks At Levels To Beget Lousy Returns by John Hussman via Hussman Funds Small Stocks Threaten Breakdown by Dana Lyons via Tumblr A Real Conversation About The Markets by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report “There are two hedges I know of; one is cash and the other is knowledge.” — Bruce Berkowitz
November Top Performing DJIA Month in Election Year November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-three DJIA and number-two S&P 500 month since 1950. Since 1971, November ranks third for NASDAQ. November is best for Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 second best since 1979. November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse. November’s is a mixed bag in presidential election years. DJIA has advanced in 9 of the last 16 election years since 1952 with an average gain of 1.5%. Significant DJIA declines occurred in 2008 (-5.3%) and 2000 (-5.1%). For S&P 500 November ranks second with a similar record to DJIA. NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 are not as strong ranking #8, #6 and #8 respectively. Fewer years of data (11 for NASDAQ and 9 for Russell indices) combined with sizable losses in 2000 and 2008 drag down rankings and average gains. Not a subscriber? Sign up today for a Free 7-Day Trial to Almanac Investor to continue reading our latest market analysis and trading recommendations. Get a full run down of seasonal tendencies that occur throughout each month of the year in an easy-to-read calendar graphic with important economic release dates highlighted, Daily Market Probability Index bullish and bearish days, market trends around options expiration and holidays. In addition, the Monthly Vital Statistics Table combines stats for the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and puts them all in a single location available at the click of a mouse. Last five trading days of Election Year October’s modestly bullish Last week we looked at the markets weekly performance before, during and after Election Day. Two weeks before the election has historically been the worst performing week. This year, that week actually lines up rather closely with the last five trading days of October. The last five trading days are modestly bullish, up 56.3% of the time since 1952 with an average gain of 1.1%. The average gain is heavily influenced by a 10.5% advance in 2008. Excluding 2008, the average gain is just 0.4%. This is better than the S&P 500’s weekly performance two weeks before the election. So which is correct? Technically both are correct. The weekly performance results are weekly performance before, during and after Election Day while the last five days of October are the last five days of October. Because weekly performance is relative only to Election Day it does not consider end-of-month market tendencies which are more likely to repeat. Election Day: Bullish Day Before, Less So on Actual Day Looking back at the last sixteen presidential elections since 1950, the day before Election Day has a clear bullish bias. DJIA and S&P 500 have declined just three times and average gains of 0.41% and 0.33% respectively. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are slightly weaker, but still bullish. Election Day (or the day after prior to 1980) leans bullish, but with a greater frequency of losses. Incumbent party victories are shaded in light grey. NASDAQ performs best on November’s First Trading Day Based upon data in the now available 50th Anniversary Stock Trader’s Almanac for 2017on page 86, the first trading day of November is the sixth weakest of all monthly first trading days since September 1997 based upon total DJIA point gained. DJIA and S&P 500 have been up 12 of the last 21 years on the first trading day of November. NASDAQ has the best record, up 15 times with an average gain of 0.37%.
Monday morning ER's: ($LL $CAH $WMB $CTB $DO $BSFT $ZBH $ERJ $CHKP $LPX $SO $ROP $EURN $L $TECH $MCY $CNHI $AMG $D $PEG)
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!- Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (10/31-11/4) <-- click there Here is the monthly poll for month of November- Monthly SPX Poll - November 2016 Sentiment <-- click there In addition we have our weekly stock picking contest now up and running as well!- Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (10/31-11/4) <-- click there Here is the monthly contest for the month of November- Stockaholics November 2016 Stock Picking Contest <-- click there We also now have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!- Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (10/31) <-- click there And lastly we have a Fed poll...will they hike, will they stand pat? Vote!- Fed Poll: Will the FOMC raise rates to <0.75% on Wednesday November 2nd @ 2:00PM EST? <-- click there It would be awesome to see some of you regulars here at Stockaholics join us and participate on these sentiment polls & challenges! Have a fantastic weekend everyone!
Market Wrap and Sector Watch Oct 28th 2016 Even with some good earnings the markets are struggling. It appears as though we are stuck until after the election. almost every index and sector currently looks guilty till proven innocent.
ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.30.16 - Election Day Can't Come Soon Enough Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
How's this for a ridiculous stat- Fact: Since the Wednesday after Brexit, the S&P 500 has closed within 3% of its ATH every single day. That comes out to about 4 months or 85 trading days! Evidently we haven’t seen anything like that since the first half of 1995! At the same time, the thing that makes this streak strange is that in 1995, 34 of those 85 days made new ATHs, versus just 10 new highs during this recent streak. Here’s another way to look at things: The S&P 500 has now gone 52 straight days without a new high, yet every single day it closed within 3% of the highs. This is the longest such streak since 1928, topping the previous record of 48 straight days in late 1993. Yowza! In other words -- NOTHING has happened for the indices essentially since June haha. Historically, October has been the most volatile month, but that has not held true at all in 2016. With just 1 trading day left to go in October, only one day this entire month has closed up or down 1%. You have to go back at least 10 years to find the last time October was that tame. Coming into this month, who thought that would happen? Seriously. But wait! There's more lol ... Did you also know that the DJIA is doing something extremely rare. For 35 consecutive trading days now it has closed above its daily 200sma, but under its daily 50sma. You have to go back at least 41 years for the last time we saw something like this. Here’s what makes this recent action strange though: The DJIA is currently 2.2% away from ATHs. Back in 1975, the last time this happened, it was more than 20% away from an ATH. And this is only the 10th time since 1900 the DJIA has ever closed 35 straight days between its 50- and 200-sma's. Taking a closer look at the 10 times the DJIA went 35 trading days or more between the 50- and 200-sma, the current streak is the closest to the ATH, with many of the other instances taking place in bear markets. In other words -- it's tough to compare now versus then, as the market is behaving much more differently. I think we can all agree that this lack of volatility will eventually come to an end at some point and we would expect some much higher volatility before the year is out. Of course, the presidential election is the big wildcard and should there be any unexpected outcomes for either Hillary or Trump, a spike in volatility is more likely.
ER's for this upcoming week ahead: ($FB $BABA $GILD $SBUX $GPRO $FIT $PFE $TWLO $CHK $X $ATVI $SWKS $FSLR $LVS $QCOM $LL $AMRS $ONVO $YELP $EA)
My retirement went to cash in June or July with only my paydays accumulating in the Govt. TSP international, large and small cap funds. In other words, this year for the most part has been flat for me. Volatility earlier in the year accounted for my gains keeping me green but otherwise, this has been a very boring year. Get this election over with and maybe we'll see some direction into 2017.
#ES_F#Futures levels to watch 2139.50 // 2128 // 2116.50 #Crudeoil#futures levels to watch 49.06 // 48.19 // 47.32 #Gold#futures levels to watch 1287.5 // 1278.5 // 1269.6
Thanks for posting the earnings stuff cy. And great analysis on the S&P and DOW being near all time highs. Time to long some volitility. Anyone know when uvxy is set to split again?
Man I'm swamped with work like crazy today ... doesn't look like I'm missing too much though ... how are you all doing in here today?
