Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of September 5th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: T.B.A.
Worst US Macro Slump In 6 Months Sparks Stock, Bond, Silver Buying Spree We hope this helps... Before we start, this... This was the worst 2 weeks for US Macro data in 6 months... This is just peddling cynical fiction... Data-dependent Fed... And this is probably nothing... But given all of that Stocks rallied on the week... because that's what they are supposed to do, no matter what... Financials led the week, energy lagged... When Nasdaq dared to turn red, an invisible vol-crushing buying panic took off... But we note that S&P and Dow stalled at resistance around the Stan Fischer ledge from J-Hole... VIX flash-crashed to an 11 handle briefly this morning on the payrolls print, bounced, then faded all day back to an 11 handle close!! Financials stalled a little today but remain decoupled from their underlying commodity... While investors bought stocks on the week, they also piled into bonds - especially the short-end - suggesting less belief in The Fed's rate hike rhetoric... The USD Index oscillated in a relatively narrow band all week with cable and yen the most chaotic (yen's biggest drop since Brexit, down 2% on the week after direct intervention chatter) The USD's relative quietness was evident in copper and gold this week but crude was crushed and silver surged... While gold flatlined on the week, Silver had its best week since Brexit - driven by a spike today on weak payrolls... Despite crude's best day in 2 weeks today (thanks to Putin comments), WTI had its worst week since January... Finally this is probably nothing also... Charts: Bloomberg
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Intriguing Eruditions Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, On Tuesday, I noted the end of summer and the entrance into one of the weakest months of the year statistically speaking. “We can confirm BofAML’s point by looking at the analysis of each month of September going back to 1960 as shown in the chart below.” “As shown, the average return for all months of September is -.70% with a median return of -.42%. More importantly, the statistics for September are universally negative. The number of losing months outweighs winning months by 31 to 25 which gives September a 55% chance of being negative historically speaking. While the “average and median” losses are less than 1%, this analysis obscures the fact that many September months registered losses of greater than 3%.” As Donald Trump would say: “Not so good. Not so good.” This past week has failed to break the current consolidation process that started over a month ago. As shown in the chart below, however, the “bulls” are currently facing a very important test. The GREEN dots at the bottom denote when the market is oversold AND on a momentum buy signal. The combination of these factors has subsequently led to a rise in the markets. However, the RED dots denoted when the markets were on a momentum sell signal and oversold. This combination of factors has generally led to further declines. The second situation currently exists at a time when we are entering into a seasonally weak period of the year AND ahead of a Presidential election. For the “bulls” it is critically important for the markets to find their footing at the current “bullish trend line” which is in conjunction with the 50-day moving average. A violation of that level will like witness a further decline in the month ahead. I have updated the previous target levels below. The problem for individual investors is the “trap” currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. There will be a collision between the fantasy of asset prices and the reality of the underlying fundamentals. This will particularly be the case if the much-anticipated rebound of economic growth and earnings fails to materialize as has been suggested by recent economic reports. However, as my colleague Dana Lyons penned yesterday: “The S&P 500 is on a rare streak of closes near a 52-week high; can this bull run continue or will gravity take over? The recent, and ongoing, historically tight range in the stock market has been well documented. Over a month ago, we mentioned that the S&P 500 traded in its smallest 2-week range in history. A month later, the index has incredibly barely seen an expansion of that range. One aspect of this recent action that we detected, however, may be even more astonishing. It deals with the S&P 500′s streak of closing near a 52-week high. Specifically, every close since July 8 has been within 1% of a 52-week high. That streak of 39 days is the 2nd longest in the past 50 years.” “How long will the current streak last? It’s impossible to say. Only 3 have ever lasted longer, with just 1 of them going past 48 days. What will happen to stocks once the streak ends? Obviously, that is impossible to know as well. However, the general pattern has been for the streak to end somewhat violently on the first day, then recover in the weeks following. Time will tell how long this bull can levitate – and how far its riders will get tossed once it succumbs to gravity.” With longer-term combined sell signals currently in place, and the market still processing a broadening topping pattern, the extremely high levels of “complacency” are likely misplaced. But then again…I worry a lot. Here is what I will be reading this weekend. Fed / Economy US Economy: Bad Moon Rising by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong Fed’s Fascination With Unreliable Data by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch Fed Has Mastered Market Manipulation by Jeff Cox via CNBC Yellen Sees Strong Case For Rate Hike by Binyamin Appelbaum via NY Times Crutch Holding Up Economy Is Failing by Bob Bryan via BI Chart Shows Central Banks Driving Markets by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge What Yellen May Have Said by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners El-Erian: 5 Things Post-Jackon Hole by Mohamed El-Erian via Yahoo Fed’s Bad Timing For Rate Hike via Investors Business Daily Fed Shouldn’t Expect Trust by Larry Summers via The Washington Post The Monster In The Mirror by Scott Sumner via EconoLib Fed Myths vs. Reality by Wade Slome via Investing Caffeine A Failure To Communicate by Alexandra Scaggs via FT Why The Fed Might Need To Go To (-2%) by Leslie Shaffer via CNBC Markets Apocalypse Never by Eric Parnell via Seeking Alpha One Chart Shows Investor’s Greatest Wish by Mark Gilbert via Bloomberg View Jackson Hole Changed The Stock Market Game by Jim Collins via TheStreet What Is Dow Theory Saying Now by Chris Ciovacco via Ciovacco Capital Corrective Action Could Be Developing by Doug Kass via Real Clear Markets Long Term Sell Signal For Stocks? by Chris Ciovacco via Ciovacco Capital UBS: Low-Vol Risk Event Is Coming by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge Crowded Trades by Ellie Ismailidou via MarketWatch Quiet August Could Give September Wakeup by Patti Domm via CNBC Investors Treading On Thin Ice by Bill Gross via Janus Capital 38-Days Of Silence by Matt Egan via CNN Money The Stocks Millennials Love To Buy via Evelyn Cheng via CNBC Could This Be 1987? by Chris Matthews via Fortune No One Knows Why September Sucks by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch Update On The Stock Buyback Binge by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times Just Great Reads Is The Oil Industry Dying? by Richard Heinberg via Pacific Standard Ignoring Fundamentals: Speculation Driving Oil by Rakesh Upadhyay via Yahoo Millennials Face Wage/Debt Serfdom by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds Magical Thinking by Ben Hunt via Financial Sense Unraveling The Secular Stagnation Story by Steve Hanke via CATO Inst. Inequality Today, Catastrophe Tomorrow by Dr. Robert Shiller via NYTimes Why ObamaCare Failed by Shikha Dalmia via The Week Behind The Massive Debt Binge by Norman Mogil via Financial Sense 3 Charts Behind The Pension Short Fall by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times “Bogle’s Folly” Turns 40 by Jason Zweig via MoneyBeat 10-Things A Trader Needs To Give Up by Steve Burns via See It Market Optimism Bias And Investor Denial by Samantha Debbie via InvestmentWatch The Apotheosis Of Bubble Finance by David Stockman via Contra Corner Reasons For & Against The Bull Market by Dana Lyons via Tumblr Buybacks Blew Another Financial Bubble by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report “The interests Of The Financial Media And Wall Street Are Not Aligned With The Individual Investor.” ? Larry Swedroe
Day after Labor Day Bullish In the last 21 years, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have all registered average gains of around 0.5% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up four years in a row however, DJIA and S&P 500 have been down in four of the last six years. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.14%. NASDAQ is worst, up only 47.6% of the time with an average loss of 0.13%. End-of-Quarter Portfolio Restructuring Contributes to September Volatility Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble madness. Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance over the same timeframe. September’s performance does improve slightly in election years, but it is still negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have been able to escape negative territory and post modest 0.2% and 0.7% average gains respectively in the last nine election year Septembers. Although the month has opened strong 13 of the last 21 years, once tans begin to fade and the new school year begins, fund managers tend to clean house as the end of the third quarter approaches, causing some nasty selloffs near month-end over the years. Recent substantial declines occurred following the terrorist attacks in 2001 (Dow: -11.1%) and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 (Dow: -6.0%). Solid September gains in 2010; DJIA’s 7.7%, S&P 500’s 8.8% were the best since 1939, but the month suffered nearly the same magnitude declines in 2011, confirming that September can be a volatile month.
ER due out in the holiday-shortened week ahead: $KR $HPE $PLAY $MRVL $HQY $HDS $VAL $RH $BKS $HOFT $NX $MBUU $SAIC $FRAN
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead! Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (9/5-9/9) <-- click there! in addition we have our weekly stock picking contest for this upcoming week! Stockaholics Weekly Big Board Contest for the Week of (9/5-9/9) <-- click there it would be awesome to see all of you regulars here at Stockaholics join in and participate on these polls & contests!
happy labor day long weekend to everyone here at Stockaholics! i hope you guys get to enjoy this last unofficial week of the summer! i cannot believe how quickly this summer has come come and gone man! enjoy it! here is the globex labor day holiday schedule-
This week's market wrap video Still in consolidation mode for many sectors. No Fear whatsoever could be an omen Have a fantastic holiday weekend everyone > be safe and have fun!
thx @Vegastrader66 ! great stuff there with the vid there as always man! i hope you have an awesome holiday as well! i may not be able to make it to your live stream on sunday, but i'll def. be sure to check out it on the archive!
so, i was meaning to post this chart update in here at month's end august on wednesday but today will do as we're approaching the end of the summer doldrums finally... it has been a pretty wild year for these markets thus far to say the least... from the very beginning of the year correction (which was one of the worst starts to any year in the markets in history!) to the brexit panic lows that we saw back in late june, here we are having entered the month of septembmer (which btw is notoriously known as being the worst month for markets all year...) still flirting with ATHs for the major averages ... thus far we are still contained within august's unprecedented narrow trading range, albeit the month has just only gotten underway here ... interestingly the vix closed back with an 11-handle for the week i am wondering if we are just going to continue this horrific chop fest in this very tight range that we saw much of last month, leading up into the FOMC meeting which is scheduled for september 21st @2pm i had conducted a fed rate hike poll on the stock market subreddit the other week ... in fact here were the final results even before yesterday's NFP's -- CLICK ME! pretty interesting how it was overwhelmingly in the favor of "no" even well before that payroll # yesterday ... and now that we got that meaningless # out of the way, has anything really changed? anyway, for the sake of the markets let's hope for some much needed volatility this month! personally, i will be shocked if we are to continue to chop it up in this range for much more longer than this ... esepcially with the u.s. presidential elections on the horizon (we're literally just 8 weeks away!) i think once we've gotten this next fed meeting out of the way in a few weeks, markets will start taking notice of the elections which could stir up some volatility, especially if the markets start sensing a comeback by the republican candidate imo we'll see what happens! i hope you guys had a terrific summer trading, albeit kinda boring, but hey, that isn't to say there ain't any $$$ to be made in a boring market! lol hope you all have an awesome long holiday weekend in the states! last unofficial week of summer ... it's amazing to me how quickly this summer has come and gone! admittedly, i will be a little sad to see it go lol ... but on the flip side i will welcome much needed cooler temps! this was one of the hottest summers on records i heard from one source the other week. catch you all next week! edit: again don't forget markets in the states are closed on monday! edit 2: there is also an AAPL event on sept. 7th i think?
Sept 7th is the event date. I think this one may be an interesting event to watch because the iphone is said to have no headphone jack which will force users to get wireless headphones to use it.
if i recall, the headphone jack is the only reason smartphones today arent almost paper thin. so i guess the iphone 7 about to be super thin
