VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Stockaholic, Mar 31, 2016.

  1. kthanx

    kthanx Member

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    Have over $50k in this one. This company has been too battered as of late and investors are seeming to forget that all of this debt was used to BUY ASSETS.

    These assets have value. Key upcoming catalysts include.

    1. Potential Asset Sales
    2. Brodulumab approval and launch
    3. Addyi marketing and sales uptick
    4. Stabilization and return to growth of eye business and GI
    5. De-leveraging

    For patient investors this one will be good in the next 12-24 months. In that period the bankruptcy risk is 0% (though this is trading at BK levels).
     
  2. Bishop

    Bishop New Member

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    The problem with the debt to buy assets argument is that some of the latter acquisitions (some of the largest ones) were overpaid. Further, the slash & burn mentality of gutting R&D has left these underlying businesses a shell of what was once something entirely different.
     
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  3. kthanx

    kthanx Member

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    Fair point, I still think this is in oversold territory though.

    With annual revenues of over 10B$ and FCF in the billions coupled with the fact that all 2017 debt is paid and that 2018 debt will also be paid shortly (with the asset sales and revenue) this company should be trading at a higher market capitalization that $4.5 Billion.

    Lets assume that by end of year 2017 there is $25B left in debt (keeping B+L, Salix, and Dermatology). With the Wal-Greens and Rite-Aid merger, Valeant will have a strong partnership with the largest pharmacy chain in the US with higher margins than when working through a middleman.

    Salix revenue and that of Xilafaxin is continuing to grow at double digits plus there are likely indications for this medicine with Crohn's disease etc.

    Brodulumab has higher efficacy than market leading Stelara in the $5B++ Psoriasis market, even if it can capture a 10% share that is adding a lot of revenue for an asset that was purchased for around $100M.

    Bill Miller was recently on CNBC twice saying that as long as FCF for Valeant remains high there are many things management can do to right the ship, he expects the stock to return 200-300% in the next 2-3 years.

    This is a high risk/reward play, however it is trading at bankruptcy levels with no imminent risk of Bankruptcy in the next few years.
     
  4. kthanx

    kthanx Member

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    Good video here from Professor Aswath Damodaran about VRX and sentiment around the stock.
     
  5. kthanx

    kthanx Member

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  6. fidelgeorge

    fidelgeorge Well-Known Member

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    Daily basis, the bearish harami could lead more sell off but who cares if you are a long term trader but another buying opportunity.
     
  7. fidelgeorge

    fidelgeorge Well-Known Member

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    This type of price action is what the brutally punished bulls need to see higher highs and higher lows from recent bottom process.
     
  8. Gambit

    Gambit Active Member

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  9. LloydWCoutee

    LloydWCoutee Active Member

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    oh how nice that 15 handle looks
     
  10. Gambit

    Gambit Active Member

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    $VRX getting a lot of social media attention
    [​IMG]
     
  11. LloydWCoutee

    LloydWCoutee Active Member

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    Valeant show us some love today
     
  12. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Its listening to you!
     
  13. kthanx

    kthanx Member

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    My LEAP options are in the money now - stock is continuing to climb.

    Buy when there is blood on the streets.
     
  14. fireopal

    fireopal Well-Known Member

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  15. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Watching for a breakout over Jan highs!
     
  16. Gambit

    Gambit Active Member

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    $VRX If the recent pattern from CLVS, SGYP etc are any indication there should be a dip and shake out before it heads higher. Let's see.
     
  17. Gambit

    Gambit Active Member

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    Check out $VRX on ChartMill
    [​IMG]
     
  18. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  19. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Head up here, looking for a bounce play soon!
     
  20. Wolfy

    Wolfy Active Member

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    One thing many equity buyers are overlooking is the debt market.
    The unsecured bonds for VRX has been rallying in the last few days. That signals the creditors are putting more faith in VRX's upcoming debt restructuring.
     

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