Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of May 20th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Ryanair, Nordson, Qudian 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker 1:05 p.m. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida 7:00 p.m. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on assessing risk at Altanta Fed conference Tuesday Earnings: Home Depot, JC Penney, Nordstrom, AutoZone, Kohl’s, TJX, Urban Outfitters, Toll Brothers 10:00 a.m. Existing home sales 10:45 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at Atlanta Fed conference 12:00 p.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at Economics Club of New York Wednesday Earnings: Target, Lowe’s, Advance Auto Parts, L Brands, Analog Devices, NetApp, VF Corp, Canadian Imperial Bank 1:00 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard in Hong Kong 10:10 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic at Dallas Fed tech enabled disruption conference 2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes Thursday Earnings: BJ’s Wholesale, Best Buy, Autodesk, HP, Intuit, Ross Stores, Splunk, Medtronic, Hormel Foods 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. New home sales 1:00 p.m. Fed panel with Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly; Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin at Dallas Fed’s Tech enabled disruption conference Friday Earnings: Foot Locker, The Buckle 8:30 a.m. Durable goods
Dow Suffers Worst Streak Since 2016 Despite Best Dip-Buying In A Decade Quite a week... China was ugly overnight after defending any dip all week - have to make sure the stock market does not reflect weakness after the trade deal fell apart!! But Europe soared this week as US delayed auto tariffs... The late-day headlines from CNBC that "trade talks have stalled" - merely repeating what was said overnight numerous times - triggered the algos to dump after early gains (thanks to op-ex gamma hedging and US-Canada tariff headlines)...Small Caps were the week's biggest laggard... The Dow is down four weeks in a row - something it has not done since May 2016!! The midweek ramp was all one big short-squeeze and the machines ran out of ammo today... Another failed IPO today... Trade deal hope was dashed this week... The ratio between Morgan Stanley's China Trade Sensitive Basket and the S&P 500 has dropped to the lowest since U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi announced a truce at the G-20 meeting in Argentina in December. Credit ended the week wider (despite ripping back midweek from Monday's gap wider)...VIX was around unch... Stocks and bonds decoupled this week (as stocks short-squeezed higher midweek)... Treasury yields were bid on the week and accelerated lower in the last hour as repeated headlines of trade talks being stalled sparked more bond buying... 10Y Yields fell back close to YTD lows this week Notably crude and inflation breakevens decoupled late in the week... The yield curve closed the week just above inversion... But before we leave bond-land, both US and Europe priced in more dovishness from their respective central banks this week (41bps of cuts in 2019 for the Fed and 35bps of cuts for the ECB)... The Dollar Index rose on the week - its best week in over 2 months... The last two weeks have seen offshore yuan collapse over 3.1% getting closer to 7.00 - the biggest 2-week plunge since Aug 2015's devaluation Cable was a disaster this week with GBPEUR down 10 days in a row - the longest losing streak in 19 years The Loonie rallied on the day after US dropped steel tariffs... Emerging-market stocks fell for a second day and a gauge of EM currencies erased 2019 gains as China signaled its reluctance to resume trade talks with the United States Cryptos had a violent week but ended significantly higher, led by a 33% rise in ethereum... With Bitcoin reaching almost $8500 before crashing Friday... The dramatic outperformance of Ethereum in the last few days has erased all of Bitcoin's outperformance over the last 6 weeks... WTI rallied on the week (copper did not) despite a strong dollar and trade talks breakdown but silver was the biggest loser... Finally, in case you thought something had change in recent days - despite the collapsing fun-durr-mentals and the death of trade talks - you were right. Bloomberg's Luke Kawa notes that over the past 10 sessions (or since the trade war resurfaced) the S&P 500 has averaged a drop of 0.5% overnight and a gain of 0.3% during the day. That 0.8 percentage point average gap over the two-week stretch constitutes the biggest disparity between poor overnight retreats and intraday advances since July 2009. In other words, as the US-China trade deal began to collapse confidence in the markets, 'someone' was panic-buying US equities during the day after 'someone else' was dumping them overnight at historically high levels. With global money supply now collapsing, stock markets are gonna need more dip-buying to support this debacle...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
Next Week's Economic Indicators - 5/17/19 Fri, May 17, 2019 Similar to equity price action, the first half of the week was a bit rough but things finished on much more solid ground for economic data. Small business optimism kicked things off on Monday stronger than both expectations and March’s reading, coming in at 103.5. Other Monday releases weren’t as lucky as they broadly came in weaker. Export and import price inflation worsened in April and mortgage delinquencies rose. Fortunately, foreclosures fell 3 basis points down to 0.92%. Empire Manufacturing started Wednesday with a bang coming in at 17.8, more than double estimates of 8.0. But it wasn’t all good as retail figures for the month of April were weaker across the board and Industrial and Manufacturing Production fell 0.5% alongside weaker Capacity Utilization. Things turned much more positive on Thursday, though, as every release beat expectations. Claims were stronger, the Philly Fed crushed estimates, and Housing Starts and Permits both rose while also beating forecasts. On Friday, Michigan Confidence rose to 102.4 versus expectations of staying at 97.2, ending the week on a very high note. Turning to next week, it will be a light data slate with only 14 releases all week. The Chicago Fed releases their National Activity Index Monday morning; the only release that day. Similarly, Existing Home Sales is the sole release Tuesday. Meeting Minutes for the May 1st FOMC meeting will be out Wednesday afternoon. In addition to the standard weekly releases, we will get preliminary Markit PMIs, New Home Sales, and the Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Activity Index on Thursday. Preliminary Durable goods for April rounds things off on Friday with weaker data anticipated. The Bespoke Report -- Trade Tenor Typically Trying Fri, May 17, 2019 Stocks started the week poorly but found excuses to rally midweek, just not enough to get all the way up to breakeven since last Friday. Global economic data continued to look mostly soggy, though not across the board. There was a lot of US data this week, but also important releases from China, Japan, and the Eurozone that we discuss in detail. We also take a look at recent earnings in Europe which have exceeded expectations modestly. One piece of positive economic data we focus on in the week's report is the ratio of Leading to Coincident indicators published each month by the Conference Board. As shown below, the ratio is rising again after bottoming out in January. While not at a new high, its behavior is looking distinctly different from the typical pre-recession backdrop. Ahead of recessions, the ratio plunges very consistently, a marked difference to the current sideways range. We discuss further in the report. 0 to 55 in Seven Days Fri, May 17, 2019 In a post last Friday, we noted that based on our Stock Seasonality tool, the S&P 500 was entering what has historically been its weakest seven-day stretch of the calendar year. That's right, over the last ten years, the S&P 500 has been down in the one week period from the close on 5/10 through 5/17 by a median of 1.78% with declines eight out of ten times. The image below is from the post last Friday and shows how in the one-week period, our gauge of performance for the S&P 500 was all the way down to zero, meaning it doesn't get any worse than that! When the market opened on Monday morning it was looking like another mid-May week from hell as the S&P 500 gapped down sharply on trade fears. In a pretty impressive turnaround, though, bulls clawed their way back and the S&P 500 was only down modestly on the week as of Friday afternoon. So now that we have gotten through 'hell week' for the market, what can we expect next week? Below we show the updated gauges for the S&P 500's historical performance over the next week, month, and three months (from the close on 5/17). While the week of 5/10 through 5/17 has typically been horrible, the week that follows has historically been slightly above average with the S&P 500 posting a median gain of 0.37%, which ranks in the 55th percentile of all 7-day periods throughout the year. Looking further out than a week, returns improve from there. The S&P 500's median return one month after the close on 5/17 is a gain of 1.84% (71st percentile), and the median three-month return is a gain of 3.86%, which is better than 75% of all other one week periods throughout the calendar year. Now, if you want to find the stocks that have historically performed best during this period of the year, head on over to the Stock Seasonality tool for more info. Consumer Expectations Surge Fri, May 17, 2019 After a strong slate of economic data on Thursday, today's data continued the positive trend with a much stronger than expected sentiment report from the University of Michigan where the headline index came in at its highest level since January 2004. While economists were forecasting the index to come in at a level of 97.2, the actual reading was much stronger at 102.4. That beat relative to expectations was the biggest since October 2017. The big driver of this month's strength was the fact that the expectations component surged 8.6 points to 96.0 from 87.4. Over the last few years, the expectations component of the UMich Sentiment report has tried unsuccessfully to break above 90, but this month it blew right through that level to the highest levels of the current economic cycle. Not only did the expectations component make new highs relative to the last few years, but it's also at levels not seen in over 15 years. The fact that this index is making new highs is an encouraging one as it indicates confidence about the future, and with the number of Americans feeling like they are living 'paycheck to paycheck' at multi-year lows, how can you blame them? The one head-scratcher? It's a bit counter-intuitive to see consumer sentiment and the probability of rate cuts from the FOMC so high at the same time! Stocks Stand Tall Against Headwinds Posted by lplresearch Renewed trade tensions have led to this latest bout of volatility. The recent drop in the S&P 500 Index felt worse because of how quickly it happened—from new highs to down nearly 5% in less than two weeks. Keep in mind stocks have come pretty far pretty fast, beginning with the strong rally at the first of the year that put the S&P 500 back at record highs. Swift rallies like this have also tended to lead to drawdowns as stocks typically have lost some steam midyear—hence sparking the well-known market adage “Sell in May.” The stock market was probably due for some volatility. The S&P 500 has averaged more than three pullbacks of 5% or more each year since 1990, and we’re still waiting for our first one this year. “Even though volatility has picked up, and may be with us for a while as risk of a bigger trade war lingers, a pullback or two in the coming months would be totally normal, even with fundamentals still in solid shape,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. The U.S. economy continues to grow at a solid pace, it’s steadily creating jobs, wages are broadly rising, and some benefits of tax reform and other fiscal spending are still flowing through. We expect a pickup in business investment to help extend this economic cycle. Key risks beyond a full-blown trade war include lackluster growth in Europe, a messy U.K. divorce from the Europe Union, and rising geopolitical risk in the Mideast. According to the U.S. Treasury, China has cut its holding of U.S. Treasury securities to a 22-month low, potentially in retaliation as the trade dispute lingers. “What isn’t discussed as much, though, is that global demand remains strong, with foreign ownership of U.S. debt hitting a record high last month,” added Detrick. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, China has been decreasing how much U.S. debt it holds, while Japan has silently increased its holdings for five consecutive months. Last, we remain hopeful that the United States and China will reach some kind of a trade agreement—or at least a trade truce—in the next few months. President Trump cares about the stock market and the economy, and considers both part of his path to re-election. Both sides have a lot to lose from further escalation. And the two sides already came very close to a deal, which suggests the remaining sticking points can be worked out. Pullbacks Happen Posted by lplresearch As we noted yesterday, the recent bout of volatility has caught many investors off guard. However, we’ve been saying since late March that some type of normal correction could happen, and we’ve taken a more cautious stance. This was one of the best starts to a year ever for equities, which historically has led to modest returns the next six months, with an above average chance of a large correction. The S&P 500 Index fell nearly 5% before bouncing back yesterday. Here’s the catch: 5% pullbacks are actually perfectly normal parts of investing. “After a 25% bounce since the lows of December and a near 5% decline, it might feel scary and uncomfortable to investors, but it is important to remember that pullbacks are part of investing,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Trees don’t grow forever, and neither do bull runs. A break is usually needed before the eventual resumption of higher returns.” For more on why we think a pullback could take place, listen to our latest LPL Market Signals podcast. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, there has been an average of more than three separate 5% declines for the S&P 500 per year going back to 1990. Given there hasn’t been a 5% pullback yet this year, we think the odds are quite strong that we see multiple 5% drops the rest of this year as the economic cycle ages and volatility picks up. Uncomfortable, but Expected Posted by lplresearch Trade tensions have flared up again, and they’ve caught the stock market off guard. The S&P 500 Index has dropped 2.1% over the past two days amid a slew of trade-related headlines. On May 6, the United States announced it would implement additional tariffs on Chinese imports at the end of the week if no trade agreement is reached. In response, China threatened its own retaliatory measures. China and U.S. officials are still scheduled to continue trade talks in Washington, D.C. May 9, but the threat of escalation looms large in investors’ minds. Recent market volatility has been uncomfortable, but not particularly surprising given the lack of turbulence year to date. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500’s largest pullback this year has been unusually small relative to previous years. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has made it through the first five months of the year without at least a 2.5% pullback only once—in 1995. On average, the S&P 500 has endured an 8.5% pullback from January to May each year. This year, stocks haven’t come close to that. The largest S&P 500 pullback this year has been a one-day slide of 2.48%. “Given the recent run we’ve had, we believe conditions are ripe for an increase in volatility,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Though we remain optimistic about U.S. stocks’ longer-term prospects, stocks recently reached overbought levels.” While volatility could take over in the near term, we see the resurgence in trade risk as a temporary obstacle to new S&P 500 highs later this year. In our view, current trade headwinds will have a negligible impact on economic growth, and the U.S. economy has emerged relatively unscathed from what is traditionally the weakest quarter of the year. Economic fundamentals also point to higher prices: The labor market is steadily improving, corporate profits are at all-time highs, and inflation is healthy. In the meanwhile, we look for S&P 500 support in the 2,775 range, the index’s 200-day moving average. If this level were to be reached, it would represent a 6% slide from record levels, and at the low range of a typical 6-10% market correction. Solid fundamentals and technical support may provide investors with potential for relief from the recent bout of market volatility. On Again/Off Again Tariffs & It’s a Pre-Election Year Even though it has only been a handful of weeks since these charts were last updated and presented, they do put the last few weeks of trading into a broader view. As of today’s close, DJIA is up 9.9% year-to-date. S&P 500 is even better at 13.7% while NASDAQ is still best at 17.9%. Yes, this is down from late-April/early-May highs, but still solid numbers when compared to this point in past pre-election years and especially all years. The recent pullback and the nascent recovery rally could gather further steam and run until early-July (and perhaps challenge old highs again), but from around mid-July until October seasonality becomes a headwind and more backing and filling is likely again. Fed & Tariffs Kick Off “Sell(ing) in May” Compared to typical May trading over the recent 21-year period, this May has veered off course earlier than usual. On the first trading day of the month, the Fed harshly squashed budding hopes of an interest rate cut and the viewed was confirmed on the second trading day leading to DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ losses on the first and second instead of typical mild average gains. The market did enjoy a brief rally on the third, but it came to a crashing halt as attentions shifted back to trade negations with China. The implementation of 25% tariffs last Friday was initially overlooked, but the realities of the increasing probability of an extended and tumultuous negation process with China (not to mention another flare-up in the Mideast tensions) are hitting the market today. Should the S&P 500 finish the day down more than 1.9%, it will be the second worst day of the year. Only January 3, 2019 was worse, off 2.5%. If mid-May strength fails to materialize, the second half of May could be worse than the first half.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 5.17.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (5/20) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (5/20-5/24) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Weekly T/A Charting Challenge (5/20-5/24) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Stock Market Analysis Video for May 17th, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon (VIDEO NOT YET UP!) ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5.19.19 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (Global Economic & Policy Calendar Not Yet Out!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 5.20.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 5.20.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 5.21.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 5.21.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 5.22.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 5.22.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 5.23.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 5.23.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 5.24.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 5.24.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($HD $AZZ $TGT $JCP $KSS $LOW $AZO $BBY $SPLK $WB $IGT $TJX $FL $MDT $QD $TRNX $PDD $AAP $ONVO $CAAP $ADSK $INTU $NTAP $SPTN $ADI $VFC $TD $TTM $VIPS $ITRN $CGEN $HPE $URBN $SE $CTRP $SNPS $RY $QTT $SINA $HRL $JWN $BJ $NDSN $HPQ) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning May 20th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
first 4 week losing streak on the dj30 in 3 years. worth noting that it hasn't done 5 weeks in a row down in 8 years.
^^ thx as always oldie! you rock you know i gotta be honest here, but it’s crazy i was even able to get any of these thread updates posted over this past weekend. i was afraid this was going to be our first week without a weekly thread. that’s like never happened for me, even dating back to the HSM days! truth be told here but i was bedridden all weekend long with flu-like symptoms...got checked out, however all the tests came in negative on the flu or strep throat. weird stuff. i seemed to have caught it from the nephew who got it from school...shit always seems to happen the little guy wants to cuddle around and shit like a freaking dog and sometimes it’s just hard to say no lol. he’s such a good kiddo. i have like no immune system...but oddly it’s not from having a poor diet or anything. i eat right and workout daily. anyway, glad to be recovering from that nasty shit, whatever the hell it was. that was about as brutal of a couple of days as i have experienced in a really long while
YTD Total Returns Across Asset Classes With the S&P 500 set to open lower by 0.70% to start the new trading week, below is an updated look at recent asset class performance using our key ETF matrx. For each ETF, we show its performance (total return %) last week, quarter-to-date, and year-to-date. As shown, SPY is currently up 1.19% in Q2, but it's still up 14.87% year-to-date. The Dow 30 (DIA) is underperforming SPY by more than 3 percentage points on a YTD basis, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is outperforming SPY by 4 percentage points. Small-caps and mid-caps are in the midst of a rough patch with declines of 2%+ last week. However, the Russell 2,000 (IWM) is up nearly the same amount as the large-cap S&P 500 (SPY) for the entirety of 2019 so far. Defensive sectors like Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) have seen buying lately as investors rotate out of cyclicals a bit. Quarter-to-date, Communication Services and Financials are up the most with gains of more than 4%, while Health Care (XLV) and Energy (XLE) have been the biggest losers with declines of 3.5%+. Year-to-date, however, Technology is up the most with a 22% gain, followed by Communication Services (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Health Care is lagging badly in 2019 with a gain of just over 2%. Outside of the US, we've seen quite a bit of divergence lately. Quarter-to-date, both Brazil (EWZ) and China (ASHR) are down more than 9%, while Hong Kong (EWH) and India (PIN) are pretty deep in the red as well. On the flip side, Germany (EWG) is up 4.2%, while Russia (RSX) is up 2.6% and Canada (EWC) is up 1.6%. Oil (USO) is up the most of any asset class on a year-to-date basis with a gain of 35.4%, but natural gas (UNG), gold (GLD), and silver (SLV) are all in the red on the year. Fixed income ETFs rallied last week, leaving them all up roughly 3-4% year-to-date. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive equity market tools and much more.
Here Comes Summer! With Memorial Day right around the corner, we wanted to look at how the S&P 500 has historically performed leading up to the first unofficial weekend of summer. While the day to honor the sacrifice of Americans who have died while in service of the US military was historically observed on May 30th, beginning in 1971, Memorial Day was moved to the last Monday of May. With Memorial Day falling on the 27th of May this year, it's on the earlier side (earliest it can be is May 25th while the latest is the 31st). Also, as an added bonus, because of the way the calendar falls this year, there are 15 weeks between Memorial Day and Labor Day versus the traditional 14. So while it may have been a lousy spring for many areas of the country this year, look on the bright side: at least we'll get an extra week of summer! In terms of market returns, the S&P has tended to see modestly positive returns in the week leading up to Memorial Day, averaging a gain of 0.15% (median: 0.23%) with positive returns 62.5% of the time. Relative to all one week periods, those returns are slightly better than average but nothing to a significant degree. More recently, though, the returns have been a bit better. In the ten years since the lows of the Financial Crisis, the S&P 500 has seen an average gain of 0.65% (median: 0.39%) during the week leading up to Memorial Day weekend with positive returns in all but two years.
Good to hear you are recovering Cy. I used to get flu like symptoms a few times a year, but now I get a flu shot annually and it seems to work ok for me since I am not getting those flu like symptoms nearly as often. Anyway, hope you will be fully recovered soon
