Sorry if I am in the wrong section of the forum. I am a newbie. Please feel free to reassign my post to the proper zone. So, I am interested to make my first move in the stock market, I have zero knowledge but I would like to hold my investment for more than 5 years and have a good return. What I am most interested with is entertainment. I believe online streaming is the future and could eventually replace the exclusive content found in theater. Netflix is getting huge. But one expert has made a strange call lastly: Netflix will need a miracle before November 2019 because Disney will launch its own online streaming service. Argument was: Disney owns exclusive content like Star Wars and many more, price will start at only $6.99. Here are my questions: Does one necessarily work to the detriment of the other? I believe Netflix and Disney+ can coexist, perhaps Netflix could focus on more adult oriented content and keep developing. Personally, I do not use Netflix to watch Disney movies. Those who think Netflix stock will dive or crash, please feel free to elaborate. Also, I am curious how Disney stock will increase if Disney only takes what they own and make it available online? What I mean is, Disney is already making money with, let's say, Star Wars. If Star Wars is now available exclusively on their platform online, that's great and all, but will that generate more profit? Thanks for discussing.
We saw some good moves in DIS already based upon their announced release of the streaming service coming in Nov. How popular will the service be? I think extremely! I already have Netflix, I am enjoying their original content, but my kids love Star Wars, so I will be getting Disney too. There are millions more people like me that are going to do this.
Hi, Thank you for discussing. I have read that it costs Netflix a lot - hundred of millions to keep licensed content - and that Netflix would be happy to use that money to create more original content instead. But I try to understand, if I can watch all Disney content online for $6.99 a month, and that Disney stop selling its content to Netflix and other online service, how will Disney generate profit? I have no doubt that this service will be popular, millions will subcribe, but will that translate with an increased stock value for Disney? That is something I am a bit confused about.
My question was for long term investment of course. The announcement about their upcoming online service seems to give investors confidence but that graph doesn't reflect the true value yet. I mean, Disney must generate profit with their online service otherwise, if I am not mistaken, the value will drop back. I am still confuse.
I am interested too. I look at TV streaming, and try to draw from what I've seen with audio media (CDs, radio, streaming such as Spotify/Apple). The future you talk about is pretty much here albeit in small doses. There have been movies that released simultaneously theater/DVD/streaming. And Netflix is looking to buy a single theater so they can show their movies for a week in a theater, and have it qualify for Oscar awards. Eventually, people will give up going to movie theaters like they gave up going to Blockbuster video, and like they gave up going to Tower Records. Now for my opinion: I wonder if Disney is ready for how much money they will (imo) lose with the demise of theaters. They get billions of dollars (well, Disney and the movie theater companies) from these movies in the theater. But once these movies go full streaming, there is a scenario where Disney's revenues decline drastically: if I want to watch the Star Wars/Avengers/whatever movie on Disney+, I just need to sign up for Disney+ for a month and binge watch all the movies. So I just watched several big budget movies and Disney got $6.99. Currently, Disney and the movie theaters would get $60-$100 (hard to say the price of a movie ticket, depends on time and size of your city) if you watched 6 movies in the theater. So possibly a 90% loss of revenue there, although this number has many assumptions. I think they clearly can for now. There can be several streaming services, and people can be happy. Just binge watch what you want, and rotate your services month by month (this month I'll have Disney+, next month I'll drop it and go to Prime Video, then the month after I'll drop that and move to Apple TV, etc.). But keep in mind that Netflix has not been able to generate free cash flow. https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NFLX/cash-flow-statement (go down to bottom) So the competition will get cut-throat. I think right now we look at Netflix as being more encompassing, versus Disney being solely for children and blockbuster movies. But that consensus is/could be wrong. Disney could make a move to be more encompassing...in fact they own a lot of other content, that you can find on Hulu, on ESPN, etc. So eventually we may look at Disney and Netflix being the same thing, and then I wonder if they will be able to coexist.
Disney owns ESPN, right? I wonder if they will start putting sporting events exclusively on their streaming service? That could be a big moneymaker for them possibly?
Correct, Disney owns ESPN. It's usually the one thing holding them back and losing them money. At least before they announced this streaming service. I remember like 2-3 years ago watching their earnings reports always make the stock dip because of ESPN. It would be interesting for them to offer a package that includes LIVE ESPN plus recorded ESPN for something like $11.99 a month or something like that. Possibilities are endless.
I have a question relative to the negative cash flow of Netflix. Does that mean that if I had invested money, let's say, last year, I would have had a return of 0% ?
No, if you had invested let's say $10K in NFLX last year, we'll say the beginning of June last year, you'd be up over 100%. See the weekly chart below. You'd have over $20K right now.
Hi, Thanks for discussing. I am very lost here. I only know about dividend and plus value. I did not find any info about Netflix paying dividend (with negative cash flow I understand it is impossible), the plus value have not increased at all in one year according to what I can read on the graph. Two years ago yes, I think the value was about $160 in June 2017 and now it is over $350. If I am missing something please let me know. Also, if Netflix never pay dividend, what exactly motivate the investors? Why the title is increasing? Is it based on projection of future dividend?
Good Thread! My thoughts... i think all the streaming services suck, and i don't see Disney+ being any better... But im clearly in the minority, im still watching tv on satellite Whats interesting to me is a quote from the Netflix ceo a couple years ago where he said their biggest competition, in terms of eyeball hours, was sleep... SLEEP!... think about that... i had Netflix for one month, i dug the hell out of Stranger Things, but i found their movie selection severely lacking.. page after page of low budget flicks that nobody has ever heard of.. same with ROKU for that matter, but at least its free... idk about HULU, never tried that one, but DIS owns a majority stake in it now anyway So, since im the odd ball out and people actually do like paying for that junk, then i think Disney, as a $250 billion media juggernaut, will take command in this space... they have a ton of content, including movies that people actually like, a news network (ABC), a sports network (ESPN) and the kind of brand loyalty rivaled by no one, with the possible exception of Apple
Netflix is a growth stock, different from the value stocks you're use to.... value stocks return capital to shareholders via dividends and stock buy backs... growth stocks return capital to share holders by, well, growing To borrow an analogy from Investopedia, imagine you owned shares of Tims flower shop... business is booming for Tim, everyone loves his flowers, the company (ie you) is seeing exquisite earnings growth... so what does Tim do with all your extra cash flow?... he has two options.. distribute it to investors, or reinvest it into the company... if he takes the second option, he could open three or four new flower shops and tripple or quadruple the company's (ie your) earnings Thats what companies like NFLX do when they have so much growth potential... capital is better spent expanding the enterprise (and thereby share price) than handing out directly to investors
This is interesting. How can I be sure that the title is not over appreciated or too popular? And I would like to know for example if Netflix stops growing and puts everything on automatic pilot, what is the projected dividend per share? In other words, is there a way to find out let's say, Netflix stops investing to grow but do just what is needed to keep its current customers and prices, would today Netflix be able to pay a dividend to its shareholders?
"Sure" is a word that doesn't hold much water in financial markets As for your question.. i guess you could look at the EPS and derive an estimated dividend amount based on different payout ratios and err to the lower end
Missed subscriber growth estimates. I think we see some more of that as people choose between Disney or Netflix, but if Netflix keeps making great original content, there will be a base that will remain for that.
netflix -> too much liberal left wing content....they need to stop playing politics and go back to their roots of being a simple entertainment company. Obama show? AOC show? Gimme a break.... Been watching more Amazon prime lately due to the liberal agenda @ netflix...almost ready to cancel our netflix sub.
Huh? It's not like they make you watch any "liberal left wing garbage" if they make it available... Do you have cable? You know they got the evil CNN available on cable, so you should probably cancel that too
