Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of July 8th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 3:00 p.m. Consumer credit Tuesday Earnings: Pepsi, Levi Strauss, Helen of Troy 6:00 a.m. NFIB 10:00 a.m. JOLTS Wednesday Earnings: Bed, Bath and Beyond, MSC Industrial 10:00 a.m. Fed Chair Jerome Powell at House Financial Services 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade 2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes Thursday Earnings: Fastenal, Delta Air Lines 8:30 a.m. CPI (June) 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 10:00 a.m. Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Senate Banking commitee 2:00 p.m. Federal budget Friday Earnings: Infosys 8:30 a.m. PPI
"Good" News On Jobs Sparks Selling In Stocks, Bonds, & Gold; Dollar Surged Trade-Truce 'good' news was good news for stocks, 'bad' news in macro data this week was good for stocks, and jobs 'good' news today was bad news for stocks (initially)... But only stocks rebounded from the hawkish-tilt from the payrolls print On the week, Trannies barely managed to hold on to post-trade-truce gains, while Nasdaq surged followed by the S&P and Dow... Volume was well below average (though somewhat expected given the holiday) But on the day, good news on jobs was initially dumped and then pumped back to unchanged... once it ran out of ammo, stocks faded into the close...Small Caps were the only major US index in the green on the day... Defensive stocks dominated cyclicals on the week... VIX mini-flash-crashed on the payrolls print, spiked higher then faded from the european close... Treasury yields screamed higher today, erasing the week's bond price gains and erasing yield's drop since The FOMC for the short-end... As good-ish jobs data ruined the Fed's 50bps rate-cut party, crashing the odds to just 2.5%!... The spike in yields stalled at critical resistance once again... And the yield curve collapsed, erasing the post-FOMC steepening... 3m10Y spreads are inverted for the 30 straight days... The Dollar index had the best week since February, spiking today after the good payrolls data... The Dollar spike stalled at critical resistance... Yuan gave up all its trade truce gains and ended at the lows of the range... As the dollar rallied, cryptos stumbled with Bitcoin and Ripple down 8% on the week (and Litecoin unch)... Bitcoin remains above $11,000... Commodities were all lower on the week not helped by the dollar strength... Gold suffered its first losing week in seven weeks, but ended back above $1400... Ugly week for oil after OPEC's deal and the trade-truce... Finally, we note the recent collapse in UK, China, and US macro data... As bonds agree with the data, but stocks only know one thing... Until it all ends badly...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
Jumbo First Half Gains Usually Continue After a Pause The market just put on its best first half performance for the Dow since 1999, the S&P 500 since 1997 and NASDAQ since 2003 – and that’s a pretty decent omen that market will tack on additional gains. Performance below following first-half Dow and S&P 500 gains greater than 7% and NASDAQ Composite gains greater than 10% shows a solid history of gains for the second half – after a tepid market action in Q3. Modest gains of about 1% continue into July, but gains little ground during the rest of Q3, which should come as no surprise given the infamous negative history of August and September. On average the market was unable to match first half gains during the second, though the across-the-board 7+% gains over from July to December is still solid. The Dow’s second half win ratio following jumbo gains like 2019 is a rather impressive 85.3% – S&P’s win ration is 80.0%, NAS 73.9%. Full-year gains are virtual lock. S&P 500 Sector Weightings: Mid-Year 2019 Tue, Jul 2, 2019 Below is an updated snapshot of S&P 500 sector weightings as of mid-year 2019. As shown, the Technology sector makes up the largest slice of the pie with a weighting of 21.48%. Health Care ranks as the second largest sector of the market at 14.20%, followed by Financials at 13.07%. The fact that technology and two service-oriented sectors making up nearly 50% of the index shows how much the US economy has shifted over the years. After the "big three" of Tech, Health Care, and Financials, we move down to Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Industrials, which are all right around 10%. Consumer Staples has a weighting of 7.27%, and Energy is all the way down to 5.05% after years of losing share. Utilities, Real Estate, and Materials combine to add up to roughly 9% of the index, so these three sectors are basically immaterial at this point. Below is a chart showing how much weightings changed in the first half of 2019. The Technology sector gained 1.33 percentage points while Health Care lost 1.23 percentage points, so the gap between the biggest sector (Tech) and the 2nd biggest sector (Health Care) widened by more than 2.5. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Real Estate, Materials, and Communication Services all gained share in the first half as well, while Energy, Financials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities all lost share along with Health Care. Most Heavily Shorted S&P 500 Stocks Tue, Jul 2, 2019 Below is a list of the 29 stocks in the S&P 500 that have more than 10% of their share float sold short. Luxury retailer Nordstrom (JWN) currently tops the list with 22% of its float sold short. The stock is down 33.86% YTD and 55% from levels seen last November. Tax-prep company H&R Block (HRB) is the second most heavily shorted stock with 20.55% of its float sold short. HRB is followed by sports retailer Under Armour (UAA), Snap-On (SNA), and Kohl's (KSS). While JWN and KSS are both down big YTD, HRB, UAA, and SNA are all up nicely on the year. There are plenty of other notables on the list, including Macy's (M), Campbell Soup (CPB), TripAdvisor (TRIP), Gap (GPS), Western Union (WU), and Foot Locker (FL), but one common characteristic among many of them is that they are retailers. On average, these stocks with 10%+ short interest as a percentage of float are up 8.5% on the year, which is well below the 17% gain that the S&P 500 has seen. Below we have input the list of heavily shorted stocks into a custom portfolio that Bespoke members can create when they're logged into our website. We've sorted the list by our algo-driven "Trend" and "Timing" scores. There are currently four stocks on the list that are in Bespoke "uptrends" with "good" timing scores -- Under Armour (UAA), Intl Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Campbell Soup (CPB), and Coty (COTY). Yield Curve Craters Tue, Jul 2, 2019 With the 10-year plummeting below 2% again and the 3-month yield spiking up by over 7 basis points (bps), which is its biggest one day gain since December 2017, the yield curve is cratering today. Today's 11 bps move further into inverted territory is the biggest one-day move since January 2nd (see second chart). While not back at new lows, today marks the 29th day that the curve has now been inverted. In Fedspeak news, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (who leans hawkish but isn't a voter) just noted in a speech that she's in no hurry to cut. She argues that "Cutting rates at this juncture could reinforce negative sentiment about a deterioration in the outlook even if this is not the baseline view, and could encourage financial imbalances given the current level of interest rates, which would be counterproductive." What would cause her to change her stance? “If I see a few weak job reports, further declines in manufacturing activity, indicators pointing to weaker business investment and consumption, and declines in readings of longer-term inflation expectations, I would view this as evidence that the base case is shifting to the weak-growth scenario.” A few weak job reports? In other words, she is in no hurry to take any action. Keep in mind, though, that as recently as late February, Mester was still of the view that the FOMC would need to be raising rates later on this year. Happy Birthday, And Another Record Goes Down “If you’re looking for something to discuss at your barbecue while watching fireworks, be sure to mention this is now the oldest economic cycle in history at 121 months old,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. That’s right, this cycle just topped the previous record of 120 months from the 1990s technology boom. Although 10 years might sound old, keep in mind that developed markets tend to have longer cycles of economic growth. “Is 10 years really that old for an expansion? Maybe not, as Australia hasn’t had a recession for nearly 28 years,” according to Detrick. “Not to mention Canada, the U.K., Spain, and Sweden, which all have had at least 15 years of growth starting in the early 1990s and ending in 2008. Going even further back we see that France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, South Korea, Ireland, and China have all had at least 15-year-plus expansions since World War II.” Emerging countries tend to see more of a boom-and-bust type of cycle while more developed nations can have longer-lasting periods of growth. In fact, it’s plausible that the United States could have avoided a recession in 2001 if the 9/11 attacks had not happened, which would have produced a nearly 17-year expansion. So maybe 10 years isn’t so old? As our LPL Chart of the Day, This Is Now The Longest Expansion Ever, shows, this is now the longest expansion ever. Additionally, over the decades as the United States turned into a developed nation, the cycles of growth tended to last longer. Thanks to the dual benefits of fiscal and monetary policy, we continue to expect this current cycle to have potentially years of growth left.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 7.5.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
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Stock Market Analysis Video for July 5th, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon (VIDEO NOT YET UP!) ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.7.19 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET UP!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 7.8.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 7.8.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 7.9.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 7.9.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 7.10.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 7.10.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 7.11.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 7.11.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 7.12.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 7.12.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($PEP $DAL $AZZ $BBBY $LEVI $FAST $MSM $INFY $LNN $ANGO $WDFC $HELE $NTIC $PSMT $AIR $EXFO $SLP $SAR $ASPU $YRD) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning July 8th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
ETFs on my radar today: either UWT or DWT short - today should be the deciding factor either GUSH or Drip short - today should be the deciding factor TZA Short
Our top suggestions for holding long is $SCHW. Our new top suggestions are $CAT $CMCSA for selling short. $SPY $DIA $XLB $XLP are our ETFs opportunities for selling short. $KHC $WDC $BAC $ABBV $UTX $APD are our stock opportunities for buying long, but with higher risk than our top suggestions. $SHW $COST $MSFT $KMI $V $AMGN $GE are our stock opportunities for selling short, but with higher risk than our top suggestions. More information about sell price range, charts and expected sell returns are given in our Closing Bell video (7/5/2019), only on JusTrading YouTube channel, check it out. Remember to subscribe and click the bell to be up to date with our daily stock analysis and suggestions that we give it for free! Thanks.
short is probably a good play, i want to see how it reacts if/when it hits the 84 level. been on vacation, just got back friday and went straight back to work saturday lol, so been pretty busy.
I guess the Powell testimony will be the big event this week and the earnings season will kick off next week
