If you look at the chart weekly, you see Tesla Motors moving in a downtrend. Now the rebound from the Kijun line is being formed. Stochastic is above the level of 80, coming out of the overbought zone. I think Tesla Motors will keep moving down. But for the final conclusions you have to wait for the closing of the weekly candle.
Tesla has just introduced the "Megapack". It's a new energy storage product that is positioned above the Powerpack. Judging by the configuration of the battery modules, this could be the first product based on pouch batteries. https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/29/20746170/tesla-megapack-battery-pge-storage-announced
Ford EV F-150 is two+ years out, according to Chief Development Officer. Ford hopes to deliver a hybrid F-150 next year.
The Ford EV F-150 was mentioned a week ago (see my post on page 52). I doubt many people read my posts. I'm aware that I pump a lot of text into this site with few followers. The reason I continue is that one person has made me aware they read it and appreciate the perspective. I wish that person would also share their perspective, since that is what collaboration is all about. My previous comments on the start of Tesla truck production should be ignored. It is scheduled to enter production in 2021. And onto batteries.... Tesla is part of a joint venture, primarily with VW, LG Chem, and many others, to mine minerals in Indonesia. I believe this will be a primary source of cobalt for the partners of Tesla. Tesla is two generations ahead so they will soon not require any cobalt at all. This will also be a source of nickel for all partners. There is also speculation of Tesla buying part or all of a lithium producer based in Nevada. Two names have been discussed, both reasonably close to GF1. Consider this: If Tesla's RoboTaxi fleet should come into existence, it could be a singularity for auto manufacturing. If a fleet of taxis can provide transport that is more convenient than owning a car for less cost, it would be profound. This is what is being discussed with plenty of technology to make it plausible. The rest of the EV industry pays about 2.5 times Tesla's cost to build a battery pack. The only way they will be able to get this cost down is with scale. If one RoboTaxi can service 20~30 households, that is a massive cut in market demand. Even if this is only partly achieved, it would end the ability of other manufacturers from being able to bring their vehicle cost inline. I call it a singularity because it's a case of the first one there winning all or almost all.
Perhaps this piece of information, more than any other, ought to bring perspective on a Tesla investment. June 8, 2019 -> Jim Chanos creates an attack piece on Tesla -> https://interestingengineering.com/teslas-are-poorly-made-jim-chanos - cars poorly made - Musk making the same mistakes other manufacturers made a long time ago (doesn't learn from history) - cars hard to insure - high corporate damage if Musk quits 5 business days later..... June 15, 2019 -> An SEC filing reveals Jim Chanos is long on Tesla by $420K -> https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-short-jim-chanos-expects-tsla-rally-sec-filing/ How is that legal? Jim Chanos has a group of 6 known writers authoring attack pieces on Tesla and he has the leverage to publish them. Despite being wrong an astounding percentage of the time and loosing a huge chunk of money in a rising market, he was on CNBC on July 26, presenting his ideas. This tie in between Chanos and CNBC is a prosecution of ideas, not any form of objective analysis. Look at how aggressively CNBC attacks any pro-Tesla guest. Cathie Wood and other bulls are cut off and treated shoddily in attempt to counter every positive point of view presented and it is universal among the entire CNBC staff. Something dishonest is going on there. I don't respect the fan boys. I've lost count of how many claims of Tesla hitting $4000 within 6 months have floated through Stock Twits. I don't respect the bears who are literally confounded about why other manufacturers don't just produce a ton of cars and out-sell Tesla. Every new EV announcement is a Tesla killer. lol! Tesla is a company for independent thinkers and it's a company that is not certain to succeed. Tesla has no known predators. If Tesla fails, it will be because it has made some terrible decisions. The history of amazing decision making doesn't mean much going into the future. Tesla is far from a dead lock but there is no question in my mind Tesla will succeed if it continues to work hard and make good decision. The game is theirs to lose.
Tesla Model 3 Gets 5-Star Safety Rating After Several Crash Tests 07/31/19 AT 11:18 PM The Australasian New Car Assessment Program (ANCAP), a car safety performance assessment program for Australia and New Zealand, said the Model 3 scored a perfect 5-Star ANCAP safety rating for its excellent performance in the areas of occupant protection and active collision avoidance. https://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-model...ood&utm_medium=Site&utm_campaign=Partnerships
There is a ton of stuff going on at GF3 and yet not much visible. - paint equipment being installed - they have been working on automation robots for nearly a month - lots more HVAC (it looks done, externally. There are a *lot* of chillers on the roof of those buildings.) - all doors appear to be installed except one overhead door - the windows are nearly all done, also The only visible items left for completion of the main building are: - one large door (either big double doors or an overhead door) - a small amount of cladding on the side of one of the tall sections (probably left off to bring in equipment) - some steel frame, loading dock, vestibules are being installed on one side of the building The substation is not as far along as I previously thought. I was under the impression the walls were formed and poured. They are not. In fact, there basically are no walls. They have a freestanding roof, held up by scaffolding. It makes no sense to me. I speculate they will clad the substation in steel because they would pour the walls first, if they were using concrete. I have no idea how far away they are from installing the cladding but there is a wild amount of scaffolding to remove so it won't be soon. Overall: I don't see how they can start testing production processes in September, although I wouldn't bet against them.
Speaking of Model Y. I originally stated I expected the Model Y to start production in January 2020. Then Elon stated the end of 2020, so I corrected that. I'm going back to the January prediction. It may not be volume but I expect samples to be rolling off the assembly line within 6 months, at the latest.
In terms of the product path, it is becoming clear the plan is absolutely brilliant. - They sold about 1200 v1 roadsters; a lot more than I expected. - Brief lag until the Model S came out and they sold a ton of those. - Model X came out, supposed to be a niche product, but is now selling about as many as the Model S - Model 3 has been setting sales records all over the world Future: It appears the Model 3 has reached sales saturation in North America. It will still sell well but they can make enough to satisfy demand. The Model Y is expected to sell twice as well as the Model 3. I expect they are right. Assuming this is true, they couldn't have made enough Y, anyway. They did a good job of the 3. By mid 2020, they will have the production capacity to drive a lot of Model Y into the market. By the time the Y is cranking big numbers, they will have the pickup truck ready for a production ramp and they will have a bunch of new production capacity at GF1. I don't see how Tesla could have done it any better. No wonder there are so many anti-Tesla lies and smears. The fossil fuel industry needs to step it up a lot or they are going to be crushed under a jack booted Tesla foot.
Tesla Energy. The second phase of the Virtual Power Plant initiative in South Australia is nearing completion. It involves 1100 homes, each with a power wall and 5KW of solar. Phase 1 + 2 Storage = 14,.85 MWh of storage Phase 1 + 2 Generation = 5.5 MW of generation That's pretty good for an 1100 house initial test. They have announced phase 3 which could involve another 49,000 homes. https://virtualpowerplant.sa.gov.au/virtual-power-plant 49,000 homes would bring: Storage = 661MWh Generation = 245MW For a few years now, it's been crystal clear there is a lot more money to be made in generation and storage than there is in vehicles.
I just watched a Chinese news segment on Tesla that featured some video of the interior of GF3. It's *way* further along than I expected. They have a stamping press that looks ready to do work, the paint shop looks done (difficult to know if it is), and a lot of robots installed (look unconfigured, possibly not connected to control systems). They are currently working on a supercharging station, just outside the factory but within the compound. I would think they are waiting on the substation. I expect to know by EOD tomorrow if the scaffolding and acros have been removed. I'm starting to believe there will be production samples rolling out of GF3 in September with the production ramp beginning in October, bringing the original predictions to reality. Keep in mind, the first steel column was erected on March 18.
Sorry, I'm back with a technical analysis. Tesla Motors seems to be turning upstairs. The red line of Tenkan turned up, indicating a change in trend. The price has fallen below Tenkan, which is bad for the bulls. Stochastic has reached level 20, but maybe this is not the end of the correction down. I think it’s early to buy now, on the contrary, it’s necessary to sell. Weekly.
Porsche is now walking back their 350KW charge rate for the Taycan. They are now saying they will start at 250KW. I still predict fires in some cases, until they understand how to pre-condition their batteries for such a rapid charge.
No question that Tesla owns the EV market and has just less than 0.50% of the car market as a whole, but they have to be stopped. If they are allowed to grow to some tipping point where EV's are readily accepted, the world-wide economic dislocations would be unbelievable. Many large corporations in, and surrounding the oil industry and conventional automobile industry would go bankrupt and no government could bail them out. It is akin to the digital camera taking out the behemoth Eastman Kodak, on a tremendously larger scale. Just looking at the oil business which sells 100 million barrels worldwide each day (20 million in the US). At $55/bbl that's $5.5 billion per day, over $2 trillion per year. 50% of that is for transportation, or $2.75 billion per day. For each day that the adoption of the EV can be delayed there are billions of dollars at stake for the oil companies not to mention the auto industry. They've managed to delay EV adoption in the past, e.g., Texaco buyout of the entire Ovonics nickel-metal hydride battery business from GM thence allowing its use in laptops and cameras but with specific refusal to license for larger sizes suitable for EVs. Of course it didn't matter with the advent of Lithium-ion but it is just one example of EVs being delayed. So, with the potential to continue a revenue flow of $2.75 billion for each day of delaying TSLA, is it any small wonder that the oil companies, not to mention other related industries and Russia, and Saudi Arabia, etc., would want/need to short TSLA into the ground? Not to make money on the trade, but as a minor expense of doing business? The bottom line is that you can follow the company fundamentals and believe as hard as you can in the dream, build a Musk hero shrine, but it's not enough and there is more going on here than meets the eye. Read the chart, follow the money.
I have never looked at it that way, but it makes perfect sense. $2.5B per day sure sounds like great incentive to delay EV's from catching on too quickly.
The $2.75 billion per day revenue stream of the oil companies is just the tip of the ice berg. There is the petro-dollar system and all the pension funds and 401k plans of retired and soon-to-be-retired boomers, heavily invested in oil, autos, and related businesses to consider. There is no doubt a political incentive to stop Elon. He's a dangerous man that can screw up everything and he doesn't play well with others...he doesn't play ball. Sure, the Chinese want him on their team, it fits with their game plan to end the petro-dollar and the USD reserve currency system, but no one likes a traitor, not even the Chinese. Just like his company's namesake, Nickola Tesla, he and TSLA may be destined to become only a footnote in history.
Well yes, the cat is out of the bag, but with 99%-plus of passenger vehicles and 100% of planes, trains, and trucks still using fossil fuels, I wouldn't characterize the situation as "going back". EVs are still a fringe novelty and my point is there are big market and political forces that have an interest in keeping it that way and may actually enjoy crushing the boy wonder.
