.25 priced in - has been for weeks. Everyone was looking for .50 cut. Think we either trade sideways or start down
Looks like a sell the news moment here: https://www.npr.org/2019/07/31/734060292/fed-cuts-interest-rates-for-1st-time-since-2008 The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates for the first time in over a decade — a preemptive move aimed at extending the already record-long economic expansion. The Fed on Wednesday lowered its target for the key federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point. The move should decrease the cost of borrowing, including for credit cards, auto loans and mortgages. The rate cut — the first since the Great Recession — had been widely expected, but it marks a turnaround for the Fed. As of late last year, the central bank was expecting to continue raising rates in 2019.
ding ding ding! and that's a wrap to july. i'm seriously amazed how swiftly this month went by. holy crap.
Interesting stats I guess Yellen had a better records than Powell on FOMC days then although I don't have any stats for Yellen
Americans Still Not All In on Equities Maybe they're still feeling the sting of January 2018 when they basically went 'all-in' on stocks (and bitcoin for that matter) and then saw prices crater for two months, but despite more new highs for equities, US consumers haven't been really quick to embrace the market. In Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Report, for the question which asks consumers for their views on the direction of US equities, 41.6% expect prices to continue rising, while only 22.4% expect lower prices. Granted, the 41.6% reading is a relatively big increase from June when the reading was at 33.5%, but it's still below the 42.1% reading from May and the peak reading of 51.0% from January 2018. As shown in the green line of the chart, ever since the peak reading in January 2018, we have been seeing lower highs in the percentage of consumers expecting higher stock prices. Consumers are also asked to give their views on interest rates in each month's Consumer Confidence Report, and here we've seen some interesting moves over the last few months. Ever since the Fed started to pivot towards lower rates at the start of the year, the percentage of consumers expecting higher interest rates has declined rapidly. From a recent high of over 70% in late 2018, less than half of consumers now expect higher interest rates. Meanwhile, the percentage of investors expecting lower rates has risen from near historic lows up to 15.7%. For both of these series, July's readings were the most extreme since late 2012. Keep in mind too, that this comes as long-term treasury yields are close to historic lows.
It is a pretty wild day for the market Volatility has been pretty much non existent during this summer, now it will be interesting to see whether the market will root for good economic news or bad economic news
Might see some pressure on equities without the rate cutting future everyone envisioned. At least until papa Trump tweets it was just a glitch and stocks shoot to the moon again.
I will short retraces. SPY puts paid off nicely for me today. Bought some August 9 $300 SPY puts at $1.98 before they took off today. I do regret selling them a bit too early though
