Key yield curve inverts to worst level since 2007, 30-year rate under 2% Long-term Treasury rates added to their monthlong slide on Tuesday, aggravating a key yield-curve inversion and sending the 10-year yield to its lowest level against the 2-year rate since 2007. The yield on the benchmark2-year Treasury note, more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy, fell to 1.526%, 4.7 basis points above the10-year note's rateof 1.479%. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was the one that began in December 2005, two years before the financial crisis and subsequent recession. The spread between the 3-month Treasury yield and that of the 10-year note — the Fed's preferred inversion metric — slumped to -50 basis points, its lowest since March 2007. The30-year bond yielded1.961% and was poised to close below the 3-month bill yield for the first time since 2007. A10-year rate below the 2-year yieldis viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, marking an unusual phenomenon as bond holders receive better compensation in the short term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced a 155-point gain on Tuesday as bond yields fell. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/08/27/us-treasurys-investors-monitor-trade-developments.html
The problem of profit taking at SPX 2900 or 2940 is that the price could head towards another test of the 3000 level. You have to know your trading strategy to figure out what to do
I entered at a meaningful level long but I don't care which way the price goes. More collapse--I buy more. Rally--I profit take. But I want volatility. That's my milk, baby
Boom. Off we go, into... [At least, it seems that way momentarily]. But, my theory says the SPX definitely shall retest the 2900 level, so I can at least exit at break even for some of my positions and at a profit with the rest
Key yield curve inverts to worst level since 2007 The crash happened in 2008, so we have a whole year before the crash?.... whoohoo!!
Yeah I think I have heard from CNBC that stocks usually don't go down immediately right after the curve inverts, usually takes 12 months or whatever before we see some significant downturn
The stock market peak is on average 3 months after the yield curve inversion -- but that is in instances where a recession follows. Kinda makes sense? I'm thinking a recession is defined by 2 quarters of negative growth, so keep riding that bull until you see that first quarter of negative growth. Another implication is that the curve inverts when the market is near ATH.
