Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of September 30th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI Tuesday Monthly vehicle sales 9:15 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending 4:15 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Wednesday 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment 10:50 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams 9:15 p.m. Philly Fed President Patrick Harker Thursday 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing 10:00 a.m. Factory orders 12:10 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester 3:45 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Friday 8:30 a.m. Employment report 8:30 a.m. International trade 10:15 a.m. Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren 10:25 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic 1:00 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
Stocks Sink As Trade Tensions Trump Fed's Open-Mouth (And Market) Operations President Trump started the week with a well-timed "sooner than you think" comment on the proximity of a China trade deal, then continued to lambast China in his UN speech, raises prospect of more Huawei sanctions, and floats the idea of capital controls on China inflows. All of which prompted a response from China's Wang, warning that "China does not cower to threats." A few well-timed Fed headlines (mainly Bullard's uber-dovish job interview comments) and selectively picking US data to meet the narrative helped stocks; but in the end it was an ugly week for US, China, and European stocks... Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg China stocks all ended lower on the week, led by the tech-heavy Shenzhen and ChiNext indices... Source: Bloomberg But China stocks were hit even harder today (after the cash markets above were closed) on the investment flows headlines.. European stocks ended the week lower but Spain's IBEX managed to get back to unch by the close... Source: Bloomberg US stocks tumbled on the week with Small Caps leading the plunge (worst week for Russell 2000 since May)... Source: Bloomberg All the major indices tested or broke below key technical levels...Nasdaq below 50, 100DMA; Russell 2000 below 200DMA; S&P testing 50DMA... Source: Bloomberg FANG Stocks were battered this week, back to their lowest since January... Source: Bloomberg Quant funds oscillated flows all week - Momo was down, up, down, up, and down... Source: Bloomberg Cyclicals dramatically underperformed this week (but selling was broad-based today)... Source: Bloomberg This week's move should not be a total surprise as it was the downside pin from options gamma... Source: Bloomberg VIX surged almost 3 vols this week - the most in 2 months -back above 18 Source: Bloomberg And just what triggered the biggest relative selling of Alternative Asset Managers to the S&P since Feb 2016... Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields ended a volatile week lower... Source: Bloomberg 10Y Yields fell back below 1.70%... Source: Bloomberg The week did see take-up for The Fed's liquidity spigot drop, but we still have the actual month-end day (Monday) to go... Source: Bloomberg Before we leave bondland, here's WeWork's 2025 bond collapsing to record lows (and thus record high yields at 11% - quite a cost of funds!!) Source: Bloomberg The DXY Dollar Index roared higher this week... Source: Bloomberg Soaring to its highest since May 2017... Source: Bloomberg Offshore Yuan fell for the second week in a row as China heads into Golden Week... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos had their worst week since Thanksgiving 2018... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin tumbled (on heavy volume) back to find support around $8,000 (trying to hold around its 200DMA)... Source: Bloomberg Commodities were broadly lower on the week in the face of USD strength... Source: Bloomberg Gold seems to have known where global rates would end up as negative-yielding debt accelerated once again... Source: Bloomberg Finally, we wonder if the ascent of Warren in the prediction markets is starting to affect stocks... Source: Bloomberg For now it seems like the Q3 surge in global economic data has ended abruptly (biggest weekly drop since June)... Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
October’s First Trading Day Mixed Over Last 21 years Based upon data in the soon to be available Stock Trader’s Almanac for 2020 on page 88, the first trading day of October is DJIA’s fourth weakest of all monthly first trading days since September 1997 based upon total DJIA points gained. June, August and September have been weaker. S&P 500 has been down 10 of the last 21 years on the first trading day of October. DJIA’s record is slightly softer with 11 declines and NASDAQ’s performance has been the worst of the group, down 12 times with an average loss of 0.36%. Fruitful to Sell Rosh Hashanah Happy Jewish New Year to you all! I took the above picture of pomegranates last year in Tel Aviv’s Carmel Market during my adventure through Israel with my family in celebration of my eldest son’s bar mitzvah. As the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.” It gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement. The basis for this, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Even in the age of algorithmic, computer, and high frequency trading these seasonal patterns persist as humans still need to turn the machines on and off and feed them money or take it away – and these algorithms and trading programs are written by people so the human influence is still there. Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 88 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months. Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced 59% more advances, half as many losses and average gains of 7.0%. This year the high holidays commence on Sunday eve, September 29, and end October 9 with Yom Kippur right in time for Octoberphobia. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, setting up the market for further declines in notoriously volatile October. What If September Is Up? Well, when the worst month of the year is up, it’s not so bad. October is slightly better when September is up. But Q4 and the rest of the year are generally more positive. In the tables below September is ranked by largest gain for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1949 and NASDAQ since 1971. Q4 remains about average, but full year gains are above average. So if September can eke out a gain then watch out for Octoberphobia, but fear not the full year. Financials Hold on to Broad Gains in September Thu, Sep 26, 2019 In spite of the relative weakness we have seen in equities over the last week, US stocks are still poised to finish off September and the entirety of Q3 in the black. While overall breadth among industries was more positive several days ago, there are still four sectors where every industry is still in the black on a month to date basis. As shown in the graphic below, all of the industries within the Energy, Financials, Real Estate, and Utilities sectors remain in the black for the month of September. To be fair, Energy and Real Estate each only have two industries in their respective sectors, so for these two sectors, it isn't quite as impressive. Within the Financials sector, though, all five are still up on the month while all three industries in the Utilities sector are also up MTD. In the Energy sector, even with this month's gains of over 4%, both industries in the sector are poised to finish Q3 with a decline. Utilities have been big winners so far this quarter, but Electric Utilities have been the clear leader with an eye-popping gain of 10.2% this quarter. Looking for Action? S&P 1500 Most Volatile Stocks Thu, Sep 26, 2019 For traders with a short-term time horizon who are looking for big moves, we have updated our list of the S&P 1500 stocks trading above $10 that have the largest intraday high-low ranges (based on the average percent spread between the intraday high and low over the last 50 days). The stocks are grouped based on whether they have a rising or falling 50-day moving average (DMA). While the VIX remains relatively low, in recent months we have started to see some big moves in individual stocks and that can be seen in the fact that a number of stocks in the table below currently have average intraday ranges of more than 5%. The most volatile stock in the S&P 1500 is Lennox International (LII), which has had an average intraday high-low range of 9.5% over the last 50 trading days. Granted, it's only an $11 stock, so the 9.5% average range works out to just about a dollar per day, but it is still volatile nonetheless. Behind LII, there are another three stocks with average daily moves of over 8%, but here again, they are all relatively low priced stocks trading at less than $20 per share. The highest-priced stock on the current list is Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR). With a share price of $91 and an average daily move of over 5%, IIPR typically sees an intraday swing of over $5. That's a trader's dream if you trade it right, but a nightmare if you get it wrong! In terms of sector representation on this month's list, Consumer Discretionary is the most prevalent with 17 different stocks. Behind Discretionary, the next closest sector is Energy at eleven. Finally, with regards to the breakdown between stocks with rising and falling moving averages, there are modestly more stocks with falling moving averages (29) than rising moving averages (21), suggesting some underlying weakness even with the broader S&P 500 trading not far from new highs. Manufacturing: Doing Okay or In Collapse? It Depends Who You Ask. Wed, Sep 25, 2019 Last night in The Closer, we discussed the huge divergence between regional Fed manufacturing activity indices and the ISM Manufacturing Index. In the chart below, we've created a proxy for the ISM Manufacturing Index by averaging sub-indices from various regional Fed manufacturing surveys. The result is generally well-correlated to ISM, but over the last few months the two have diverged wildly. While the Five Fed indices from the New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond Fed districts would indicate an ISM reading in the mid-50s, the actual readings have been deteriorating dramatically. Of course, these three Fed districts are a relatively small snapshot of the overall national economy, but collectively their sample size is similar to the ISM's. It's hard to say which is "right", but the huge divergence is certainly noteworthy.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 9.27.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (9/30) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (9/30-10/4) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics October 2019 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Q4 2019 Quarterly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your quarterly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Weekly T/A Charting Challenge (9/30-10/4) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Stock Market Analysis Video for September 27th, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!) ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.29.19 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 9.30.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 9.30.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 10.1.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 10.1.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 10.2.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 10.2.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 10.3.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 10.3.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 10.4.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 10.4.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($COST $SFIX $THO $PEP $PAYX $STZ $MKC $UNFI $RPM $BBBY $LEN $CALM $ASNA $LW $AYI $AMRS $ANGO $SGH $LNDC $RECN $NG) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning September 30th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
I would like to have a discussion, that I want to see remain civil even though it will involve politics. Please try to keep it civil *insert prayer hands* With the impeachment inquiry opened in the house, I see 4 paths forward. In each situation, how do you see the market performing? 1. House impeaches, vote fails in the Senate, Trump remains in office. 2. House impeaches, no vote ever brought to senate floor courtesy of Senate majority leader, Trump remains in office. 3. House impeaches, Senate impeaches, Trump out, Pence in. 4. House impeaches, Senate impeaches, Trump out, Pence out (Trump has been throwing him under the bus basically saying "look at his calls with the foreign leaders too!"). I don't see this one likely at all, but gotta consider all options.
Not asking anyone's opinion on if it should happen, which one they think will happen, etc. Just how do you think the market reacts to each?
Just my worthless 2c on the matter, which isn’t much at all since I don’t know squat about how politics will ultimately impact the markets. Just my best WAG (wild ass guess) here is that I think the market will likely trade more or less as it has been since the bull market began (aka, status quo). You’ll have your normal pullbacks and corrections. But the bull uptrend remains regardless of what noise *cough* I mean news may come out. Impeachment schmimpeachment will have no lasting affects on the market imho. As long as the economic data is still coming in good, and there are no downside surprises in GDP etc. then I think the markets will be just fine even with any of the scenarios you layed out above (which btw for record I don’t see any of them actually materializing. ). The maximum I could see is a very short term negative reaction (like the one we saw on the futures on election night in 2016) which would be an incredible buying opportunity imho anyway. I would be all over that like white on rice if that were to happen. The market right now is not very attractive to me at all with the indices up around ATHs. A nice meaningful dip would be amazing! Just my 2c. Take it with a grain of salt though cause I know nothing haha. Just sharing my thoughts here is all.
Based on what has transpired since the Nov. 2016 election and now, I would say that volatility is increasing and will further increase as we near Nov. 2020. I base my opinion on what appears to be an escalation in the political war between the Trump administration and the liberal world view. We have witnessed many accusations and insinuations from both sides of the isle and I don't believe it will abate before the next presidential election, perhaps even beyond. Trump has to keep the American economy strong as a bulwark of his leadership, the opposition to Trump will aid the cause only if it can deny Trump credit for the good economy while taking the credit for itself. What we have is a tug-o-war between what's supposedly good for a nation and what's supposedly good for the world.
