Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of October 14th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Columbus Day Bond market closed Stock market open regular hours Tuesday Earnings: J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Johnson and Johnson, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, United Airlines, JB Hunt, UnitedHealth 4:25 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks 8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing 9 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks 3:30 p.m. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks Wednesday Earnings: IBM, Netflix, Bank of America, Abbott Labs, PNC, Bank of New York Mellon, U.S. Bancorp, CSX, Progressive, Commerce Bancshares, Comerica, Steel Dynamics, Ally Financial, First Horizon, Alcoa, Wintrust 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. Business Leaders survey 10 a.m. Business inventories 10 a.m. NAHB 10:45 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans 2 p.m. Beige book 4 p.m. TIC data Thursday Earnings: Morgan Stanley, Honeywell, Union Pacific, Taiwan Semiconductor, SunTrust, BB&T, Genuine Parts, Snap-on, Keycorp, Textron, Bank of the Ozarks, ETrade, Western Alliance Bancorp, Intuitive Surgical 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Housing starts 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 2 p.m. Chicago Fed’s Evans speaks 4:20 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams speaks Friday Earnings: Coca-Cola, American Express, Schlumberger, Synchrony Financial, Manpower Group, State Street, Citizens Financial, Gentex, Kansas City Southern 10:30 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks
Global Stocks Soar Ahead Of Yet-To-Be-Written, "Almost Complete" Trade Deal "That Could Still Fail" TLDR: US-China reach deal to spark massive S&P short squeeze based on rumors and hearsay and in exchange Trump won't slam upcoming Chinese incursion in HK Source: Bloomberg But, will The Fed still cut rates? *ROSENGREN: CUTTING NOW ENCOURAGES RISK-TAKING AT WRONG TIME (wait what?!) Source: Bloomberg And if everything is so f**king awesome, why is The Fed opening its massive money spigot once again? *ROSENGREN SAYS RESUMPTION OF FED BALANCE SHEET EXPANSION NOT QE (oh ok) Source: Bloomberg Ignore this... Source: Bloomberg Because this... Source: Bloomberg China stocks strengthened notably on the week as investors returned from Golden Week... Source: Bloomberg European stocks also soared (with UK's FTSE 250 exploding 4.2% higher today, biggest jump since May 2010) Source: Bloomberg US equities soared again today on the trade deal hype, extending yesterday's gains...until the actual 'news' broke of the not-complete, could-still-fall-apart partial trade deal... Also erasing the October losses (nasdaq the big gainer) until the news hit and stocks faded... Futures show the chaos this week best... with today's mini-flash-crashes and spikes... US equity gains were dominated by a massive two-day short-squeeze... Source: Bloomberg Quants suffered as momo was battered... Source: Bloomberg AAPL surged to a new record intraday high today but remains, very marginally, smaller in market cap than Microsoft (based on the latest available share count of course)... Source: Bloomberg Treasury Bonds were clubbed like baby seals this week with yields surging 20-23bps... Source: Bloomberg 30Y Yields dropped very briefly below 2.00% on Sunday night/Monday morning, then exploded higher from mid-week (biggest 3-day jump since Trump's election)... Source: Bloomberg The yield curve exploded steeper today with 3m10Y un-inverting (up a wopping 25bps this week, biggest jump sine Trump's election)... Source: Bloomberg The dollar dumped as trade hopes soared (and Brexit hopes)... Source: Bloomberg Cable soared a stunning 5 handles in the last two days, the biggest 2-day jump since Nov 2008 (even though -*TUSK SEES 'NO REASON' FOR OPTIMISM AFTER '3 YRS OF PROBLEMS')... Source: Bloomberg Offshore yuan surged on the trade hype - a strong few days after coming back from Golden Week... Source: Bloomberg The Turkish Lira was monkeyhammered this week as Erdogan moved back into Syria... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos weakened for the second day in a row but Bitcoin and Ethereum managed to hold on to very modest gains... Source: Bloomberg Oil ended the week the big winner as trade talk optimism juiced demand hype and gold was dropped like a used needle on Market Street as who needs safety when everything is awesome... Source: Bloomberg WTI rallied up near $55 handle - highest since September... Gold futures fell back below $1500... Finally, we wonder when this gets priced in... It could never happen again, right? Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
Next Week's Economic Indicators - 10/11/19 Fri, Oct 11, 2019 It was a disappointing week for US economic data as two-thirds of releases came in weaker than expected or than the prior period. Consumer Credit data for the month of August was the only major release on Monday, exceeding expectations, but declining from July’s level. Inflation data took the spotlight this week with the release of PPI, CPI, and export and import prices. Core CPI was inline with the previous month and the import price index’s decline (year over year) was smaller than forecasted, but other readings on inflation were weaker. Likewise, labor data had its share of disappointments as the JOLTS report showed a third consecutive decline in openings, hourly earnings growth slowed, and continuing claims ticked higher. Initial Jobless Claims provided some relief though, coming in at 210K compared to 220K expected and 219K last week. While small business optimism was weaker—NFIB’s index fell to 101.8 from 103.1—consumer sentiment readings from Bloomberg and the University of Michigan both rose with the latter exceeding expectations. Looking ahead to next week, the calendar is slightly busier with 22 releases on the docket in addition to earnings beginning to ramp up as a total of 115 companies report. There are no scheduled economic releases Monday due to Columbus Day, so next week’s data begins on Tuesday with Empire Manufacturing which is forecasted to fall from 2.0 to 0.5. Other manufacturing gauges, including the Philadelphia Fed’s index and industrial production, are also expected to fall. Retail Sales is scheduled for Wednesday and are expected to rise 0.3%. On Thursday, Housing Starts and Permit data are both expected to show moderation. The leading index is scheduled to round out the week on Friday. Fund Flows Favor Fixed Income Fri, Oct 11, 2019 This week’s fund flow numbers from the Investment Company Institute showed that the long, steady rotation from equity mutual funds and exchange traded funds to fixed income funds has continued. As shown below, the spread between equity fund flows and fixed income fund flows has reached a net reading of -$165.9bn over the last three months; that’s among the largest net flow out of equities and into bonds since the data starts. Fixed income isn’t the only place that retail has been moving allocations to. As shown in the chart below, 13 week commodity fund flows have been among the largest of the periods since the data for ETF and mutual funds combined begins. The Most Volatile Stocks on Earnings Fri, Oct 11, 2019 Looking for action? At the start of each earnings season, we publish our list of the most volatile stocks on earnings. Our Earnings Explorer tool contains a huge database that has every single quarterly earnings report for nearly all US-listed stocks going back to 2001. One part of the database tracks the one-day price reaction that stocks experience following their earnings reports, so users are able to easily track how individual stocks typically react to earnings. In the table below, we show the stocks expected to report within the next month that have historically been the most volatile in reaction to earnings. To make the list, the company had to have at least 20 quarterly reports (5 years) and also have a current share price of $5 or more. At the top of the list is Telecom equipment maker Infinera (INFN), which is scheduled to report on October 28th after the close. INFN just barely makes the cut because it trades at $5.20/share, but it has historically averaged a one-day absolute change of 15.16% on its historical earnings reaction days. You can expect a big move when it reports at the end of this month. Consumer review website YELP ranks as the second most volatile stock on earnings with an average one-day move of +/-14.85%. Enphase Energy (ENPH), LendingTree (TREE), and Applied Opto (AAOI) round out the top five with average one-day moves of more than +/-13% on their earnings reaction days. Other notables towards the top of the list include Wayfair (W), Netflix (NFLX), and Twitter (TWTR), which all typically move either up or down more than 12% on earnings. Of the stocks on the list, Enphase (ENPH) is up by far the most in 2019 with a huge gain of 424%. Other stocks like Stamps.com (STMP), ANGI Homeservices (ANGI), and Green Dot (GDOT) are down more than 50% YTD. Twitter (TWTR), Blucora (BCOR), and Benefitfocus (BNFT) have the highest earnings beat rates at more than 90%. While it has a high beat rate, BNFT has been on a wild ride over the past two years, rallying from $24 up to $60 in 2018 before falling all the way back down to $24 as of today. You can bet a big move is in store when it reports on the 31st. If you're just interested in large-cap names, below is a list of the most volatile S&P 500 stocks on earnings. These are stocks set to report over the next month, and as shown, Netflix (NFLX) is at the top of the list with an average one-day move of +/-12.78% on earnings. Twitter (TWTR), Align Tech (ALGN), TripAdvisor (TRIP), and Akamai (AKAM) rank 2nd through 5th in that order, while other notables include Amazon (AMZN), Advanced Micro (AMD), Chipotle (CMG), Facebook (FB), Electronic Arts (EA), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN). If you own or have interest in owning any of these names, buckle up because they're likely to experience a big move when they report at some point in the next few weeks! Key Earnings Reports Over the Next Two Weeks Fri, Oct 11, 2019 Our Earnings Calendar is part of our Earnings Explorer tool. The calendar shows the upcoming earnings report dates for US-listed companies over the next month, and investors use it as an easy way to monitor the names they're most interested in. We provide quite a bit of information for each company listed in the calendar, including EPS and sales estimates, its historical beat rates, and its average share price performance on its earnings reaction day. If you ever want to know how a stock typically trades in reaction to its earnings report, this is the place to go. The Q3 2019 earnings reporting period finally kicks off next week when most of the big banks are set to report. But the biggest weeks for earnings will come in the back half of October and the first couple weeks of November. As shown in the chart below, the week of October 28th through November 1st is the busiest of them all when we'll see hundreds of companies report each day. Below is a list pulled from our Earnings Calendar of the key earnings reports to watch next week (based on market cap). There are no key reports to speak of on Monday the 14th due to Columbus Day, but on Tuesday we'll hear from Citigroup (C), Goldman (GS), JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and UnitedHealth (UNH) all before the open. On Wednesday, we'll get results from Bank of America (BAC) in the morning and then IBM and Netflix (NFLX) after the close, while on Thursday we'll hear from Morgan Stanley (MS), which will be the last of the major banks and brokers to report next week. American Express (AXP), Coca-Cola (KO), and Schlumberger (SLB) will finish off the week with reports on Friday morning. Of the key stocks reporting next week, Goldman (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and UnitedHealth (UNH) beat EPS estimates the most often at more than 90% of the time. In terms of price reactions, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) -- which reports on Thursday afternoon -- has historically reacted the most positively to earnings with an average one-day gain of 3.24%. Bank of America (BAC) has the weakest price reaction to earnings with an average one-day drop of 0.95%. In terms of earnings volatility, Netflix (NFLX) takes the cake with an average absolute one-day change of 12.78% on its earnings reaction day. The following week (10/21-10/25) is when we'll really be in the heart of the Q3 reporting period. A large number of Dow 30 stocks will report that week, including big blue chips like McDonald's (MCD), United Tech (UTX), Procter & Gamble (PG), Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Intel (INTC), and Microsoft (MSFT). The most important report of the week will come on Thursday the 24th when Amazon (AMZN) announces after the close. AMZN is currently expected to announce earnings of $7.19/share and revenues of $68.7 billion for the quarter. AMZN doesn't have an abnormally high EPS beat rate at just 62.5%, but it is typically a very volatile name as its average one-day move on earnings has historically been nearly +/-10%. Just think, a 10% move for AMZN is a $174 swing in either direction based on its current share price. Is October Really Scary? October 02, 2019 Just like that, the S&P 500 Index fell more than 1% on the first day of October. The rough start has many investors on edge, as October is known for spectacular crashes—specifically 1929, 1987, and 2008. On the flipside, September 2019 was historically calm for equity markets, as the S&P 500 didn’t fall 1% on a single day the entire month. “The lack of any volatility in September could mean the usually volatile month of October could be due for some big swings,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The good news, though, is while October has had a bad rap for some big drops, over the past 20 years, it actually has been the third best month of the year for stocks.” As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, October has quietly been one of the strongest months of the year over the past 10 and 20 years. Going back to 1950, it ranks as the seventh strongest month of the year, so right near the middle of the pack. Four other things to consider: Since 1950, no month has had more 1% moves (higher or lower) than October. Since 1928, 6 of the 10 worst single-day drops have taken place in October; however, 3 of the 10 best days ever occurred in October as well. This is a pre-election year, and as the chart above shows, October’s average returns in a pre-election year have been muted since 1950. The catch here is that this average return is greatly impacted by the 21.8% drop in 1987. The median return is actually quite respectable. October has been higher during a pre-election year every year since 1999, with an average return of an impressive 6.5%. October’s Volatility Spills into Option Expiration Week Since 1994, October’s expiration day tends to be mixed with average losses across the board even though S&P 500 and NASDAQ have advanced more often than not. Expiration week and the week after are mildly bullish. DJIA and S&P 500 have the best long-term records. October’s reputation for volatility can be seen with wild daily and weekly swings in the tables below. Weekly moves in excess of 4% appear throughout the tables below. However, not all of those big weeks were losers.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 10.11.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stock Market Analysis Video for October 11th, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.13.19 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (10/14) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (10/14-10/18) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Weekly T/A Charting Challenge (10/14-10/18) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 10.14.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Monday 10.14.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 10.15.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 10.15.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 10.16.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 10.16.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 10.17.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 10.17.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 10.18.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 10.18.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($NFLX $JPM $UNH $C $BAC $JNJ $GS $WFC $APHA $SCHW $ALLY $ABT $BLK $KO $PLD $UAL $PM $WIT $MS $IBM $AXP $FHN $FRC $URI $SLB $HON $CSX $PNC $UNP $TEAM $AA $USB $ISRG $ERIC $CCI $BK $ASML $JBHT $CMA $TSM $TXT $SNBR $BBT $MBWM $GPC $KMI $KEY) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning October 14th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
'It’s a lovefest!' Trump announces ‘substantial' partial US-China trade deal on agriculture, intellectual property, & finance 11 Oct, 2019 20:00 / Updated 1 day ago The US and China have reached a “very substantial phase one” deal, US President Donald Trump has declared. Tariffs due to take effect on Tuesday have been canceled, and markets responded with elation. https://www.rt.com/business/470741-trump-china-partial-deal/
Not much going on, today is a holiday for some people. Things should get more interesting later this week with earnings coming up
Columbus Day Markets Mon, Oct 14, 2019 While our friends in the bond market are all enjoying the third day of a three-day weekend, US equities are operating on a typical schedule for Columbus Day. Given the bank holiday and the fact that most schools are closed in the NYC region, this is often a day where liquidity is a bit more scarce than normal. A perfect example of that lack of liquidity causing major outsized moves was in 2008 when the S&P 500 rallied more than 11% on Columbus Day. Granted, that was a period of historic volatility, but there have only been a handful of such large one-day moves in market history, so even for the financial crisis, an 11.6% one-day move was a big deal. As good (or bad if you were short) as that move felt in 2008, the gains were fleeting and were more than erased within just seven trading days! The table below shows the S&P 500's performance on Columbus Day and during the entire week over the last 25 years. On an average basis, the S&P 500 has rallied 0.62% on Columbus Day with positive returns 60% of the time. That average is skewed big time, though, by the 2008 rally. On a median basis, the S&P 500's Columbus Day return over the last 25 years has been much lower at +0.12%, which is still actually better than the S&P 500's average one-day return of 0.03% over the last 25 years. For the entire Columbus Day week, the S&P 500's average return has been a gain of 0.65% (median: 0.35%) with gains 64% of the time. Those figures are also better than the long-term average weekly change of 0.17% for all periods since 1994. More recently, though, it has been a bit of a coin flip in terms of market returns as the S&P 500 has alternated between positive and negative returns for the week since 2011. Last year, the S&P 500 was down 4.1% during the week, so if the back and forth pattern continues, bulls will catch a break this year.
Banks and healthcare having a good day after some pretty good earnings. The SPX now less than 1% away from the new ATH, if we get some more decent earnings then we probably could make the new ATH during this earnings season
