Its really tough to try place these kind of bets on an IPO. There is no historical trading data, and we dont know if there are existing naked shorts from the big fish that may need to cover at any time.
The NLRB came to the conclusion that the strike that the "employees" performed was unacceptable and the company doesn't have to recognize their attempt at organization because they're considered "independent contractors" which is a way that many companies take advantage of their employees and get them at a better wage, make them take care of their own healthcare in most cases, etc. Good ruling for UBER as a company and investors, but bad for the workers.
Following the biggest decline since the IPO over the past few weeks, UBER is getting some bounce here.
Earlier today: "Reshaping the gig economy, California lawmakers have approved a landmark bill that requires companies like Uber and Lyft to treat contract workers as employees. Some estimates suggest costs for those firms would increase by 30% as a result. The bill, known as Assembly Bill 5, may also influence other states." Uber responds: Uber CLO Tony West says the company won't treat contractors as employees under the newly approved California bill. West says Uber's business is "serving as a technology platform for several different types of digital marketplaces" and not providing rides, which means drivers aren't a core part of the business and can remain independent when the law goes into effect in January. West also notes that Uber is "no stranger to legal battles."
Hi, do you think the november bottom would be in the 23 to 24 area? I am bigly short on Uber, but totally unsure where to set the take profit levels, do you have any hints how can i compute these points? The intersection of the lines you draw do intersect around 24, is that right? Thank you so much
In my opinion, there was support at $28.65ish. It lost that yesterday. Who knows where the bottom is, but if you really want to protect profits, I'd personally close my position if it gets back up to that level.
I really like Uber Freight. It is a slow-moving revolution in logistics. Uber Freight could easily be work far more than the passenger service. This might be a good time to get in.
【UBER: A fighter or a loser?】 I’m telling ya all, being a dream catcher is never easy. People will keep putting you down while you’re on the way to success. Do you all think UBER is a dream catcher? Should you give it a chance? See my thoughts below. ---Promise or Non-sense--- About the company They’re mostly known for getting stoners like you and I to get home safely. Uber is available in over 900 cities globally. They offer Uber Ride/Eats/bikes/freight. Most of the revenue comes from Uber Rides and Eats. The first stage of UBER, requires lots of money as they give out discount codes and even free rides in order to gain new members. Is UBER making money ACTUALLY? It’s a simple no. They were clearly impacted by the pandemic. However, here’s a part where many people overlook. Uber has a lot of cash to work on and operate. They already survived the worst year. Now it’s just the beginning. Is UBER worth Trading/Investing? I know the numbers look pretty bad, but I personally still feel optimistic about their future as they’re closer to their second stage of their plan. UBER is one of the biggest victims of the pandemic. As the pandemic eases, I expect more people taking UBER to places. It all depends on if you’re willing to take a risk. Uber is still expanding after they formed a strong base of active users.
Nice example of digging into the numbers (except when he says 2/3 of their profit comes from speculative investments, it is actually 3/2 or 150%). Copy/Pasting from https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1bwof0q/uber_is_100_going_to_miss_earnings_badly/ by https://www.reddit.com/user/dkrich/ I couldn't sleep last night, so I began looking through Uber's last earnings results because there seems to be a major disconnect between sentiment towards the stock and my own perceived experience with their service (which is to say not good). And boy did I find something interesting hidden in there. For the three months ended on December 31st, 2023, they reported net income of $1.43 billion. That represents a 141% year over year increase and 66 cents per share against expectations of 17 cents- not bad at all. Way to go Dara! Let's dig into the numbers and see how they got such a massive increase. Here we can see that they are showing $1 billion from unrealized gains on debt and equity securities. The year prior that number was $752 million. So they are counting unrealized marked to market gains on their stock holdings as if they are net income from the business. Interesting. Let's examine further. From the 10-Q: Income from operations was $652 million, up $794 million YoY and $258 million quarter-over-quarter (“QoQ”). Soooo, if my math is correct, they made $652 million from operations and $1 billion from unrealized capital gains, so essentially two thirds of their reported profit was from unrealized gains. So what are those holdings that made them so much paper money? Later from the 10-Q: During the three months ended December 31, 2023, unrealized gain (loss) on debt and equity securities, net primarily represents changes in the fair value of our equity securities including: a $659 million unrealized gain on our Aurora investment, a $414 million unrealized gain on our Didi investment, partially offset by a $91 million unrealized loss on our Grab investment. So they have three major holdings: Aurora Innovations Didi Grab They say they "earned" $659 million from their Aurora investment, $414 million from Didi, and lost $91 million from Grab. So how much of these companies does Uber own? If we go by this headline from last summer, we can figure its about 326 million shares of Aurora: So if they made $659 million in three months, the stock must have appreciated about $2. Let's looks at the charts from Q3 (10/1/23-12/31/23): This one looks interesting. On September 29th, AUR closed at $2.35. On December 29th (the last trading day of 2023), it closed at $4.37. Wait- that's $2.02! Exactly the amount they reported times their holdings of 326 million shares! Similarly, on September 29th, DIDIY closed at $3.23 and on December 29th, it closed at $3.95, for a nice $0.72 gain. Given that they reported a $414 million gain in the same period on that investment, they must own about 575 million shares. Finally, GRAB closed on September 29th at $3.54, and December 29th at $3.37, for a loss of $0.17. Given that they claim a loss of $91 million in that period, they must own about 535 million shares. Okay, so to summarize, Uber reported $1 billion of profit off three unrealized gains: Aurora Innovations ($659 million gain) Didi ($414 million gain) Grab ($91 million loss) It seems a bit sketchy to me that 2/3 of profit was reported on unrealized gains in a very speculative portfolio, but whatever, the market seems fine with it. But that begs the question, wasn't the bulk of their profit due to the happenstance price movements of two stocks in a three month period? What happens if they are flat or (gasp!) down in the next three months? Well, let's see how those three investments fared in the last quarter, now that it is in the books: First up, as previously stated, GRAB closed on 12/29/23 at $3.37. And on 3/28/24 (the last trading day of the quarter) it closed at $3.14, showing a loss of $0.23. Given Uber's holdings of 535 million shares, this would equate to a loss of $123 million. Next up DIDIY. As stated, it closed on 12/29/23 at $3.95, and on 3/28/24 it closed at $3.83, showing a loss of $0.12. Given Uber's holdings of 575 million shares, this would equate to a loss of $69 million. Nice. Now for the punchline. Let's check last quarter's big winner, Aurora. Wow, that don't looks so good. As stated, on 12/29/23 AUR closed at $4.37 and on it closed at $2.82, for a loss of $1.55. Given Uber's holdings of 326 million shares, that represents a loss of $505 million! So let's tally up the damage here: Grab: $123 million loss Didi: $69 million loss Aurora: $505 million loss So in total, Uber lost $697 million in the last quarter on the very same investments that made them $1 billion in the prior quarter. The market, she giveth and she taketh away. Meanwhile, analysts are estimating $0.21 per share, which equates to $420 million. Given the $697 million shortfall we already know about that's a near certainty and very easy to verify, that means that Uber would have to earn a profit of $1.1 billion from operations alone just to meet expectations! That would be roughly double the profit that they made last quarter. It turns out the unrealized gains pendulum swings both ways. TL;DR- Uber reports unrealized gains (and losses) as part of their profit every quarter. Last quarter was a major anomaly during the year end chase for two of their holdings, Didi and Aurora. Aurora promptly collapsed right after the quarter began, largely reversing a major profit driver from last quarter. Short this stock for easy money. As an aside, this begs the question what other companies report paper gains as real profits and benefited from last quarter's massive run?
