Stock Market Today: December 16th - 20th, 2019

Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of December 16th!

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:



Major Indices End of Week:



Major Futures Markets on Friday:



Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:



Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:







What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

• Monday

8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing

9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

9:45 a.m. Services PMI

10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

4:00 p.m. TIC data

• Tuesday

8:00 a.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan

8:30 a.m. Housing starts

8:30 a.m. Business leaders

9:15 a.m. Industrial production

10:00 a.m. JOLTS

12:30 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams

1:00 p.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren

• Wednesday

12:40 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans

• Thursday

8:30 a.m. Initial claims

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey

8:30 a.m. Current account

10:00 a.m. Existing homes

• Friday

8:30 a.m. Q3 GDP (third reading)

10:00 a.m. Personal income

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

 

Just a quick heads up in here for everyone.

Starting from this week, and heading into 2020 I am going to be cutting back drastically on the sheer number of starter posts for these weekly market discussion threads. They will now only be 1 post instead of 20+ posts, or however many I was doing before.

In addition, you guys might have noticed at the very top of this thread that I have attached a weekly market sentiment poll. This is for everyone to vote on what direction you all seeing the U.S. market closing out this week. This was an idea from @stock1234 from the other week which I loved, since as you guys may know by now, I have discontinued running the stock picking/market direction contests indefinitely starting from this week. Due to my extremely limited time nowadays, I will not be keeping records of members weekly market direction votes cast in these threads.

Hope everyone has a great trading week ahead!

 

so...how 'bout those ATHs

i believe it was marcy (?) who pointed out the other day that the $NYA finally broke out to new highs

saw a stat over the weekend that pointed out when the $NYA goes at least a year without printing a new high, then goes on to print one, it has been higher 6 months later 7 out of 8 times and up 12 months later every time

just when you think this market can't go any higher, it does ... this has been a pretty broad rally with all majors now hitting ATHs, even the trannies joined the party

 

here is a list of every SPX correction since 1980.

seems like this stat got it correct once again, that whenever there isn't a recessioin, the market is typically always higher a year later. cue last december when the market nearly dipped into bear territory, but w/o a recession. sure enough 12 months later it's bigly green

 

i suspect as we are heading into xmas holiday next week things will really begin to die down as far as news flow, and market direction, etc.

absent any crazy black swan events, should be pretty much more of the same that we've been seeing over the past couple of weeks. just a choppy grind higher.

 

thought this was kind of an interesting stat i just stumbled across and thought to share in here real quick.

so the u.s. market (spx) could be up 30% on total return basis in 2019. conventional wisdom would say that the follow year must be flat or even a down year after such a strong year right? actually quite contrary, historically speaking coming off a 30% total return year like we're about to have this year, the following year has actually been higher 10 out of 12 times with an average return of just over 15%. not too shabby at all.