Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of February 10th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Allergan, CNA Financial, DaVita, Molina Healthcare, Diamond Offshore, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, Loews, Restaurant Brands International, Kemper, Mesa Air, Everest Re 8:15 a.m. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman 3:15 p.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker Tuesday Earnings: UnderArmour, AutoNation, Virtu Financial, Daimler, Exelon, Goodyear Tire, US Foods, Sealed Air, Hilton, Martin Marietta Materials, Dominion Energy, Hasbro, Akamai, Lyft, American Movil, Western Union, Assurant, NCR, Lattice Semiconductor 6:00 a.m. NFIB 10:00 a.m. JOLTS 10:00 a.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell House financial services committee 12:15 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles 2:15 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Wednesday Earnings: CVS Caremark, CME Group, Softbank, Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, CyberArk Software, Tradeweb, Barrick Gold, Teva Pharma, Molson Coors Brewing, SunPower, Taubman Centers, Welltower, International Flavors and Fragrances, TripAdvisor, Change Healthcare, Manulife Financial, CF Industries 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker 10:00 a.m. Powell testifies before Senate banking committee 2:00 p.m. Federal budget 4:30 p.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan Thursday Earnings: Pepsico, Kraft Heinz, Fidelity National, AIG, Nvidia, Expedia, Datadog, Agnico Eagle Mines, GoDaddy, Mohawk, Yamana Gold, Mattel, Cloudflare, Chemours, Roku, Wyndham Hotels, Sonoco Products, Yeti, Nestle, Nissan, Barclays, Alibaba, Airbus 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. CPI 10:00 a.m. Senate banking hearing on Fed board nominees Judy Shelton and Christopher Walker 5:30 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams Friday Earnings: AstraZeneca, Newell Brands, MGM Growth Properties, Yandex 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. Import prices 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Business inventories
Global Stocks Soar To Record Highs As Unprecedented China Liquidity Trumps Pandemic-Panic Despite 2020's first weekly slump in the global economic surprise index (cough Germany cough) and the spreading deadly pandemic crushing global supply chains... Source: Bloomberg The world's stock markets exploded this week... Source: Bloomberg Thanks to an unprecedented flood of "all liquidity is fungible" cash from China... And that liquidity water-boarding, jedi-mind-tricked the world into believing that the worst is over... It's not, just ask Bonds! Source: Bloomberg China's ChiNext (small-cap-tech dominated) exploded higher after the re-opening crash on Monday and while the rest of the major Chinese markets ended lower, they were all well off those opening lows... Source: Bloomberg All major European markets were higher - despite disastrous economic data... Source: Bloomberg US markets were all dramatically higher this week (even with today's selloff)... Nasdaq had its best week since Nov 2018, but breadth is notably divergent... Source: Bloomberg After 4 big days of short-squeezes, today saw the machines run out of ammo... Source: Bloomberg Even with the plunge of the last few days, TSLA was still up around 15% on the week - its 10th weekly rise in a row... AAPL slid today as they extended their store closures across China... But remains above $1 trillion market cap as the MAGA 4 soar... Source: Bloomberg Cyclicals rallied hard this week but were unable to erase all the virus losses... Source: Bloomberg Momentum had its fits down week since mid-December Source: Bloomberg While stocks pushed to new record highs, VIX refused to follow to cycle lows... Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields extended yesterday's drop by plunging more today. Rates did end higher on the week but 30Y only +4bps (after being up 17bps midweek)... Source: Bloomberg The 30Y Yield has tumbled in the last two days... Source: Bloomberg The yield curve flattened back to 2020 lows this week... Source: Bloomberg This week's equity rally seemed to lift the market's desire for more dovishness from The Fed... Source: Bloomberg The Dollar has surged the last 3 days (and 4 of the 5 days in the week) to its highest since early December... Source: Bloomberg Yuan ended weaker on the week, falling back above the key 7.00/USD level... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos had a big week with Ethereum soaring over 20% to $220 (biggest week since May 2019)... Source: Bloomberg And Bitcoin is testing back towards $10,000... Source: Bloomberg Dollar strength did not help commodities this week with PMs lower and crude dropping in demand (and supply) concerns. Copper managed to hold on to gains... Source: Bloomberg WTI tested below $50 this week... Source: Bloomberg Perhaps most importantly, with Valentines Day just around the corner, the price of chocolate may be about to soar as Cocoa futures have surged about 15% in 2020 as a lack of rain in key production areas of West Africa, the world’s top supplier, is spurring concerns over yields. Source: Bloomberg So, finally, what happens next? Source: Bloomberg And is the great rotation (from Energy to Tech) over? Energy producers have almost completed a 20-year round trip relative to technology companies within the S&P 500 Index. The ratio between their S&P 500 industry-group indexes fell this week to its lowest level since March 2000, when an Internet-driven bull market peaked. Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
Week Before Presidents’ Day Bullish since 1990 Page 100 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020 points out Presidents’ Day as the poorest performing holiday of the eight holidays that are tracked. Unlike the others, the trading day before and the trading day after this three-day holiday weekend are both down on average over the past 40 years. However, the full week before the long holiday weekend has a bullish record. Since 1990 DJIA and S&P 500 have advanced 20 times with average weekly gains of 0.66% and 0.48% respectively. NASDAQ has one additional weekly decline while Russell 2000 has been the strongest, up 23 times with an average gain of 0.79%. Strong Jobs Report to Begin 2020 U.S. hiring came in stronger than expected in January, rebounding from a disappointing December print. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 225,000 in January, far surpassing Bloomberg’s consensus estimates for a 165,000 gain, according to the jobs report released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This number may help alleviate some investor unease over December’s somewhat weak reading. We argued at the time that December’s reading likely was due in large part to calendar effects and the volatility of month-to-month changes. We prefer to base our views of the labor market’s vitality on the larger trend, which, has been undeniably strong, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day. Some investors have questioned how long hiring can remain elevated before we experience a worker shortage or a sharp rise in wages. The answer, according to this report, is not yet. In addition to the strong hiring numbers, workers also have enjoyed healthy wage gains. January saw average hourly earnings rise 3.1% year over year, a slight pickup from December, while average hours worked remained unchanged. “Today’s wage number exceeds inflation, meaning workers are growing their purchasing power in real terms and should be able to continue increasing their consumption of goods and services,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “But the number is also lower than the 4% threshold that has historically signaled an overheating job market and potential for subsequent economic and market volatility. This is a very encouraging report.” The one slight blip in today’s release showed the unemployment rate inching 0.1% higher to 3.6%. This was mainly due to changes to the size of the labor force, which affected revisions. Still, given the extremely low unemployment level, the volatility of month-to-month numbers, and the overwhelmingly positive tone of the other data points released today, we feel confident about the prospects for the U.S. consumer to continue powering this economic expansion through 2020 and beyond. New Highs Tilt Scales to Bulls China is cutting tariffs; the impeachment process has come to an end and the market is at new all-time highs. The coronavirus is still a concern, but apparently not as much as it was less than one week ago. Progress has been made. Official emergency declarations have mobilized a stronger response. China has quickly built additional hospitals and work is underway on a treatment. Gilead (GILD) appears to be the first to offer a potential cure although its drug remdesivir has not been approved to cure any disease yet. These recent developments along with solid earnings, have been the fuel to reverse the market’s late January retreat in just a few trading sessions this month. In the above charts, the market’s strength since October can be seen along with second half of January weakness. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have remained comfortably above their respective 200-day moving averages since October. In January only DJIA actually (and briefly) closed below its even higher 50-day moving average. The market’s rebound surge in February has also reversed negative readings from Stochastic, relative strength and MACD indicators. Momentum clearly favors the bulls and January’s negative finish remains unconfirmed as of today. As long as economic data and corporate earnings remain positive then the market is likely to continue the trend that has been in place since last October, higher. There are likely to be some dips along the way with the next possible soft patch arriving when earnings season nears its end later this month and/or in the first half of March. Typical February Trading: Tepid Month with Solid Mid-Month Rally February has historically been a rather bland month. Since 1950, S&P 500 has averaged a measly 0.1%. Over the last 21-year period S&P 500 average performance has declined to a loss of 0.4% in February. February’s first trading day has historically been good, like today, and trading days eight, nine, ten and eleven have offered repeatable long opportunities. Outside of these five days, the balance of February has been rather lacking. Does A Lower January Have Bears Smiling? Stocks got off to a nice start in 2020, until the late January selloff due to the coronavirus outbreak fears. In the end, the S&P 500 Index fell only 0.2% for the month, but it did mark the end to a 4-month win streak. Should bulls worry about what a down January might mean for the rest of 2020? There’s an old adage on Wall Street that suggests, “As goes January, so goes the year.” This was first discussed in 1972 by Yale Hirsh of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, and it has an impressive track record. Simply put, when the first month of the year was green, it bodes well for the rest of the year (and vice versa). Given stocks closed red in January, how worried should investors be? As shown below in the LPL Chart of the Day, the numbers confirm that when the S&P 500 has been green in January, the index has been up 11.9% on average over the rest of the year (final 11 months) and higher 86% of the time. However, when that first month was red, stocks rose only 1.2% on average over the final 11 months and were higher less than 60% of the time. Another way to look at this data shows the average full year return based on if stocks are higher in January or not. As you can clearly see, stocks have tended to have trouble gaining any traction over the rest of the year after a January loss, while a green January has been quite strong. It isn’t all bad news though. Remember the S&P 500 was down only 0.2% in January, so one could argue that it was really flat. “Yes, a lower January is a potential worry for the bulls,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But it is worth noting the previous 5 times (and 7 of 8) when stocks were lower in January, those final 11 months rallied. So this might not be the clear cut bearish signal so many think it is.” January Trifecta Spoiled by Coronavirus The market decline on the last day of January spoiled what would have been the fourth consecutive January Trifecta. S&P 500 finished January down 0.2% and thus the January Barometer was negative. Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer has registered ten major errors since 1950 for an 85.7% accuracy ratio. This indicator adheres to propensity that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Of the ten major errors Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968. 1982 saw the start of a major bull market in August. Two January rate cuts and 9/11 affected 2001.The market in January 2003 was held down by the anticipation of military action in Iraq. The second worst bear market since 1900 ended in March of 2009 and Federal Reserve intervention influenced 2010 and 2014. In 2016, DJIA slipped into an official Ned Davis bear market in January. Including the eight flat years yields a .743 batting average. This year’s combination of a positive Santa Claus Rally and First Five Days with a full-month January loss has only occurred eleven times (including this year) since 1950. In the previous ten occurrences S&P 500 was down six times in February with an average loss of 1.5%. However, over the remaining 11 months of the year, S&P 500 advanced 80% of the time with an average gain of 7.4%. Full-year performance was positive 70% of the time, but with an average gain of 2.9%.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 2.7.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stock Market Analysis Video for February 7th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.9.20 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (2/10) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (2/10-2/14) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 2.10.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 2.10.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 2.11.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 2.11.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 2.12.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 2.12.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 2.13.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 2.13.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 2.14.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 2.14.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($BABA $ROKU $SHOP $NVDA $CVS $CGC $CSCO $UAA $QSR $L $AGN $HAS $LYFT $TEVA $AMAT $MCY $SAFE $GBDC $GOLD $PEP $DO $KHC $D $CYBR $MELI $CHGG $CNA $EXAS $GT $HLT $AYX $AN $APPS $WM $GPN $CRNT $BIP $YETI $MPAA $LSCC $RNG $NMM $JE) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning February 10th, 2020 <-- click there to view!
Good Monday morning traders and welcome to a new week, fresh start! Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone in here has a great trading week ahead!
Looks like it remains the BTFD market Global economy probably will take a hit in Q1 because of China, but the market might not care as long as the global central banks continue to provide liquidity
The DOW now less than 3% away from 30K while the NASDAQ is less than 4% away from 10K Pretty good chance we hit those big round numbers at some point this year
^^ haha probably i guess we can thank all of the global central banks as you had alluded to earlier i may be the only here, but this market is kinda boring me out haha. i wouldn't mind to see some panic, and a nice sizable correction that is larger than just -3% like we got the other week but i suspect we won't get anything like that given that this is also an election year. gotta keep the markets propped up ahead of that
this stat i just ran across brought a bit of a chuckle for me. spx average return in the month of feb. in an election year since 1950 is unch'd at 0.00%
Where is our StockJock-e ... he has been out for a while, isnt he ? @bigbear0083 Is he already retired ... ?
