https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coro...l-unemployment-claims-march-21-153036254.html Unemployment benefit claims skyrocket to 3.283 million
Hey all - lurked here a long time (since at least ~2014 back in Hot Stock Market days) and have occasionally browsed since but with the market craziness lately I've finally become motivated to actually post here! Quick mention: I'm especially grateful to bigbear...man, you've been keeping up the same level of awesome posts FOR YEARS. Dunno how you've done that!!! But anyway, am I the only one that's totally confused by what's going on in the markets lately? While it's tempting to look at 2008 or even 1929 as a precedent for comparison this is really unlike those given the context. What's really moving/not moving these markets right now? Is it pure speculation under the guise of wisdom about how the virus will be managed and thus how economies will start up again? People keep throwing around various elements that are supposedly "priced in" but realistically how can ANYTHING be priced in? We have no idea what direction this virus is going to take and how long recovery will be. People have all kinds of ideas, but the truth is nobody really knows. And because nobody knows I feel like the big $ is sorta pumping and dumping or something until there's actual data to guide real decisions. Nothing else makes sense to me really. But I'm also not very smart lol. One way I've thought about the economy lately, though: for the last 2 weeks, how much money did I NOT spend because of various measures that have taken place? Doing that math, multiplying it by 2-4 more weeks (a conservative guess), and again by families in my home state alone, it adds up to be a ton of money that was essentially just vacuumed out of the economy with only a fraction of it probably ever returning and even then it'l be over a looong period. And even that's highly variable! So yeah, you can sorta quantify some things to try and price in but not really because who knows how long this will go on. So considering a pandemic has never plagued (pun intended) a modern, global stock market like this before how is anything accurately valued right now - and how are some stocks barely (relatively speaking) off their ATHs still and we're within reach of starting another bull market? I've seen lots of dialog elsewhere about "yep, Monday was the bottom" or "lol can't imagine being a bull right now!!!" but realistically I can't imagine moving one way or another and am just sitting on the sidelines for awhile, maybe months. I'm not skilled enough to make daily moves in this type of environment yet and my risk tolerance is especially low now. Sure some stocks have decent prices compared to where they've been during this crazy bull period but considering some industries are literally dependent on physical bodies to fill seats, buy tickets, etc. and surely aren't generating ANY income you'd think many industries would still be in a freefall. Not to mention how paradoxical a bailout for some of them seems - with the banks in 2008 the economy kinda hinged on banks not collapsing, but why would a cruise line going under cause upheaval anything of significance to a national economy and thus be worthy of a bailout with funds from the government? I just don't know how to make sense of any of this. Sorry for all the questions/rant lol. It's just a crazy time and I don't know what to think any more. Even the unemployment news seems "better" than everybody was expecting. How is that even a thing? OK seriously done now.
And sorry for the super long post. Might delete later. But I do value the opinions of you y'all so felt like reaching out. Good luck today somehow we're already up like 2% again after two pretty big days
quite a few stocks running into resistance, a couple i own like tesla and visa, its funny how so many charts look similar, hmm, be careful guys, i wouldnt be buying today
And VIX way down too. Getting closer and closer to hitting this today...just makes no sense to me. VIX way down too. You'd think we were back to business as usual already.
lol, we close to starting a new bull market? wow. this could be the best shorting opportunity if we dont close at that 22,310
Jeesh look at that chart https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821580191/unemployment-claims-expected-to-shatter-records
BA up at $182.37...is that really solely based on expectation of bailout? Do fundamentals even mean anything any more? Geez! Sorry, I'm actually an optimist but I'd also like to think I'm a realist and I don't understand most of these movements this week.
I can't do it either, not when the VIX is over 50 lol. We just had the biggest one-day rally since 1929, was it? And the VIX is still over 50. I mean, a high VIX is what makes these big moves possible but how are we going to work the VIX back down is what I'm wondering. bigbear posted the data concerning big rally days; often enough (but not always) you're lower a month later. This is all happening after a steep drop, and often times you get zigzagging up and down. Check out the 1987 drop, very similar to today.
Just talked with some guys in India. They said they can’t leave their districts and there are police on the highway and street pulling people and literally beating them for leaving their homes.
Yeah it's wild! I can't see VIX hitting 40 or lower for the rest of the year... If the DJIA holds at this level til close we'll be in a new bull market. How? The previous bull seemed like it was a bloated market and propped up on tons of debt - cheap or otherwise - lots of buybacks, and a prevailing sense of "this party's gonna go on forever!" and now we're about to enter another bull? Now when ~25% of the world's population is on lockdown and doing a mere fraction of the work they were doing a month ago and the other 75% are also at varying levels of productivity for who knows how long? Seems legit lol. Wondering if it's simply because the big dawg MMs are somewhat relieved that the economy sputtered as a result of an act of nature than people noticing x, y, and z reasons to believe stocks were overvalued and calling it out. So now that can will get kicked down the road a ways as things slowly recover, especially as the Fed patches things up along the way.
haha, thank you for saying that @kyleh2k20 means a lot. no worries on the upvotes though really. wow! awesome. just getting back from running errands and pleasantly surprised to see this wonderful post. thank you so much for your words there @turtle957! you are too kind. also, a lurker since 2014? wow! glad you came out of lurking! it's really so nice to see the forums getting busy again. brings back memories for me since to the early HSM-days. i've been with this community since 2006 (14 years, holy fuck!), and can say this is probably the busiest i've seen the forums since HSM. probably the most active we've been since our move, which speaking of, we're coming up on the 4 year anniversary of our move from HSM to stockaholics in a couple of days here (march 29th)! anyway, super glad to have you finally join us on the discussions here!
