Morning Lineup - 3/31/20 - Bad Headlines Spook Market Tue, Mar 31, 2020 Futures were higher earlier but have been losing ground relatively quickly as a number of negative headlines have crossed the tape. First, Spain reported its highest number of casualties since the crisis began. Closer to home, it has been a harrowing day in the New York City area as the city saw its number of fatalities increase 16% in the span of just six hours! That's right, as of 10:30 AM on Monday, the death toll in NYC stood at 790, but by 4:30 PM the total number of fatalities has increased for 914. On the economic front, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for Q2 GDP down to 34%! We have long stated that the market would bottom when it could look through headlines that were only going to get worse, and headlines like the ones we have seen this morning and will likely see in the coming days/weeks will provide a test the resolve of the market's recent rally. We almost got there yesterday, but couldn't quite make it. What we're referring to is the S&P 500 moving out of oversold territory. After several days of off the chart oversold readings, the S&P 500 almost moved into neutral territory after yesterday's rally. With futures drifting lower into the open, though, that move into neutral territory may not come today. For the sake of reference, the S&P 500 has been trading at oversold levels since 2/25/20 or 25 straight trading days.
Quarter-End Market Performance: Intraday Rallies But A Brutal Last Hour Tue, Mar 31, 2020 Since 1983, intraday performance on quarter end has had a dramatic set of swings: from a boring morning to a dramatic afternoon rally and brutal selloff into the close. In the chart below, we show the average and median performance of the S&P 500 (as a percentage change versus the prior day's close) for all quarter ends since 1983. The market tends towards little change in the morning before running all the way to session highs at 3:00 PM across the course of the afternoon. That tends to preclude an unwind into the close, though, with stocks dropping all the way to flat to down just before the close. The key takeaway for today? Don't get lulled into complacency by a boring morning or solid start to the afternoon. Conditions headed in to the last day of trading tend to be very important as well. Since 1983, months with stocks down on a month-to-date basis heading in to the final day have seen steady rallies and a close at the highs. The opposite is true for periods when stocks have been up month-to-date on the last trading day. In both cases, quarter-end rebalancing is likely playing a large role. On the other hand, shorter-term rallies like the move seen this week have less of an impact, generally.
It feels so weird with the markets being mostly flat now. It’s like I do not know what to do every day because there are not 1000pt swings
It's a waiting game. That "best case scenario" (Administration COVID response official Dr. Deborah Birx's words yesterday) of 100k to 200k number of USA dead is hanging out there. Today's 3k+ USA dead number reflects where the disease was ~3 weeks ago. So investors are rationally waiting to see whether the upward march of dead continues along a 3 week-track towards 100k, OR if (hopefully) social distancing puts a dent in that number, OR (bad bad bad case) the track steepens to some point that would appear to aim above 200 k. Bigger numbers means no work for millions for a much longer time than anybody wants to admit. I don't think the market has to wait 3 weeks to know, however...the rate of growth in fatalities is updated daily and the market is attempting to factor these data updates into potential earnings impacts just about every minute of every day. And, of course, oil....that other market-rattling news.
yep ... black gold can't seem to get any kind of meaningful bid that lasts longer than few hours it seems. today's bounce back seems so halfhearted. i thought yesterday's low might be a secure low for the very short-term, but its already given back pretty much all of that bounce attempt on last night's "bullish" rumors. $20 seems to be the line in the sand. i feel like a convincing sub $20 break (and yes, i know sub $20s printed yesterday, but was very short lived) could ripple through to the market.
Just woke up and saw a lot of bad coronavirus headlines already Since the lockdown started here, I have been staying home except for some grocery shopping. Anyway, we will likely see some terrible economic data ahead and let’s see how this market will react. The central banks are doing their best to hold this market up but it is tough to tell if we will be able to open the economy back up slowly after April 31st at this point. It feels suck when I feel scared to get the virus when walking on the street so hopefully this thing will be contained soon
I was thinking to get in EOG yesterday but didn’t eventually since the overall market was up so much, looks like I missed some potential gain
...and that's a wrap the trading month of march and q1! this was the worst month for the market since '08, and the worst quarter since '87 i believe. worst q1 on record as well. it has been a wild first 3 months of the year to say the least
just a some quick stats on the indices as we closed out the month and the quarter today- you guys can view my full spreadsheet here.
Newbie here.. Do you think oil companies like ConocoPhillips are good adds right now for long term positions or stay put?
Many large hedge funds are selling off stakes in fossil fuels this year. Funny story is there’s still 60-80 years left of oil reserves (known) today so it seems like a bad financial move to do so. They typically pay good dividends but with oil below that $35ish Mark, not many will be profitable. Most are never profitable and just go bust anyway. ConocoPhillips is a decent oil play if your looking 5 years+ hold time frame and the oil markets stay above that $35 level. It’s a key level for US producers laden with debt.
I know this isn’t the correct spot to post this. However, seems like most people in this section know a lot. I haven’t been messing around with most stocks because the uncertainty behind the market. I made a little money last week pulled out now I’m taking some of that and trying something new. Now I’m playing with fire lol I got some shares for CYDY. I know it’s a penny stock. A lot of uncertainty, however I’m taking my chances with it while I’m waiting for other opportunities to arise down the road. I’m feeling pretty good about it after a week worth of research into the company. I just wanted some of your thoughts on risky stocks ? Do any of you take a calculated risk with some of the smaller stocks?
Good Wednesday morning Stockaholics and welcome to a new day, fresh start! Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone in here has a great trading day ahead today on this first trading day of April and Q2!
darn it, i was planning to play an april fool's prank on the forums this morning...been crazy swamped with work and forgot lol. oh well maybe next year.
