The Long Term Investor

Seems like to me that the point of the shut down was to bend the curve and gain time for us to ramp up and get hospitals ready, etc, etc. NO ONE said that the point of the shut down was to stop the virus......it will simply spread it out over a longer time period.

The CONSTITUTION does NOT give you the right to impose your view of....life....on me. If YOU choose to stay at home that is your choice. If you choose to go into a business, that is your choice. If you choose to open your business that is your choice.

Even if you told the whole country it is fine to open tomorrow it will still take MONTHS for it to happen. People are not going to just rush out in mass to open businesses or go to a business.....it will be very gradual. AND......no, reopening is not going to cause some BIG influx of death.

We are at 140 deaths per MILLION of population right now and that does NOT take into account that there are 20x to 50x more cases than we are counting. YOUR odds of dying in a car accident at ONE IN 103. The virus......ONE IN 7142 EVEN IF you don't adjust for the fact that there are way more cases than we are counting and the fact that at least half the cases are probably in nursing and senior homes.

As I drove up the road today, HEB was open, Target was open, the oil change place was open, the auto repair was open, the convenience store gas station was open, ALL fast food was open, the banks were open, Walmart was open,etc, etc, etc. Boeing is reopening next week. Starbucks is talking about opening. And...many more big companies are in the process of opening soon in 1-4 weeks. It is RIDICULOUS that we are forcing small businesses to be closed when they are the backbone of the economy when all the above and more are already open with many employees working side by side.

EVERY DAY that we stay closed now is driving more and more people and businesses into bankruptcy.

HERE is the REAL human tragedy:

"Disney has furloughed 100,000 theme park and hotel workers, including cast members who play the beloved Walt Disney characters in Florida and elsewhere.

The Walt Disney World resort in Orlando was the hardest hit with 70,000 workers now having to rely on Florida's unemployment assistance program, reported NBC News.

Florida's unemployment pays only $275-a-week for 12 weeks, which is among the lowest rates in the U.S."
https://www.nbc-2.com/story/42028052/disney-furloughs-100000-hotel-and-theme-park-workers

THIS is just the tip of the iceberg. BIG CORPORATIONS are not made of or have unlimited money. They will ALSO go bankrupt. GIVE AWAY benefits will not last much longer. People are going to have to pay rent, mortgages, bills, etc, etc.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS......we have never before in our history closed the economy like we are right now for any other sickness or event. This is simply INSANITY combined with political opportunism on the part of many that govern. AND......of course.....the ELITES are exempt from their own orders to the "little people".

A perfect example of the IDIOCY:

"Mayor Lori Lightfoot defended getting a haircut over the weekend even though barbers and stylists were shut down under the state’s stay-at-home order, saying she’s the face of the city and the woman who cut her hair wore a mask."

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200406-jmyz2wtccnadlknya7hzbetevy-story.html

AND....you can BET this little example is just the tip of a very big iceberg.

 

AND......oh yes the markets. A VERY GOOD Day with the Dow +1.96%, the SP500 +2.27%, and the NASDAQ +2.81%. At least when I posted this at 3:02 PM just after the close.

I DID NOT beat the SP500 today....but obviously my accounts were UP nicely along with the general markets. SO....a good day in the neighborhood.

 

SO TRUE......and I am actually surprised considering the source generally leans to the left a little bit:

Protests show 'two Americas' — those who lost their jobs and those still getting paid

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...hSlhpMAyMW3W6_djZbt9SgSPLVApgKLBtrQpuSqc3JDWM

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"OK, so the country has been shut down for about a month, and we’re seeing cracks start to form. While some epidemiologists are talking about keeping things closed down for months longer, we’re also seeing growing public protests around the nation, as people call for restarting things.

Others shame them as “virus deniers” and accuse the protesters of wanting people to die. But it’s hard not to notice a class divide here. As with so many of America’s conflicts, the divide is between the people in the political/managerial class on the one hand and the people in the working class on the other. And as usual, the smugness and authoritarianism are pretty much all on one side.

The divide is best summed up in a tweet by Brian Stelter of CNN, and a response. Stelter tweeted: “I crawled in bed and cried for our pre-pandemic lives. Tears that had been waiting a month to escape. I wanted to share because it feels free to do so. Now is not a time for faux-invincibility. Journos are living this, hating this, like everyone else.”

An America without sympathy
Some people mocked this as unmanly — and in fact, it’s hard to imagine hearing this from, say, a British journalist during The Blitz — but one response cut deep: “Such bravery. Let's all take a moment to think about the journos working from home while millions have lost their jobs.”

Likewise, in Los Angeles — where less than half the county is working now — radio journalist Steve Gregory asked the L.A. County Board of Supervisors whether any of them were willing to take voluntary pay cuts during this crisis. He was told by the chair that his question was “irresponsible,” which is to say embarrassing and inconvenient. (By contrast, New Zealand’s senior officials, including the prime Minister, are taking a 20% pay cut.)

There really are two Americas here: Those still getting a paycheck from government, corporations or universities, and those who are unemployed, or seeing their small businesses suffer due to shutdowns. And the America still getting paid is, so far, not showing a whole lot of sympathy for the America that isn’t.

That’s a formula for disaster, and it has been made worse by the heavy-handed approach taken by some government officials enforcing quarantines. We’ve seen news story after news story of officials going after people whose actions pose no danger of contagion — lone joggers on a beach, lone paddleboarders off the California coast, a father throwing a ball to his daughter in a public park — and every time that happens the shutdown loses moral authority.

Michigan, whose Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has shown all the sensitivity of an angry third-grade teacher in administering a shutdown regime that often makes no sense — banning sales of seeds in stores that are open for other purposes, or allowing sailboating but banning powerboating. Her response to the protests, a threat to extend shutdowns further, seems calculated to inflame things further.

We need leaders with humility, empathy and self-discipline
Then there are the hypocritical gestures, like Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s illicit haircut, which she justified on the grounds that she’s in the public eye. Yes, Mayor, you are, but you’re being judged on your conduct, not your hairstyle, and your conduct looks bad.

People don’t appreciate being lectured and condescended to and bossed around. They especially don’t appreciate being urged to sacrifice by people who make no sacrifices themselves. And that’s a different sort of class divide: When rulers ask for sacrifices without making any, they’re displaying a distinct lack of, well, class.

Ultimately, this rising resentment is itself a failure of public health, and of public health administration. You can complain that people are irrational and resentful, that they don’t “believe in science,” or whatever. But people are what they are, and their response to epidemics is surprisingly predictable. If your messaging — and your behavior — inspires resentment that causes people to resist and ignore public health messages, then you have failed at your job, whatever the amount of scientific knowledge you bring to bear.

Sadly, to succeed in their job, our leaders will need to possess humility, empathy and self-discipline. Those traits are in sadly short supply in our leadership class. We will all pay a price for that, though if recent history is any guide, our leaders will pay less than the rest of us.

 

I KNOW it is anecdotal.....but, I have seen the same thing in ART. People that I know that are art collectors seem to be buying during this event. A number of auctions that I follow have been rescheduled, but, sales from other collectors and from galleries seem to still be happening. I would guess that people siting around at home are doing a lot of internet searching regarding their hobbies. Those that have money that is not impacted by this situation seem to still be buying. I am seeing the same thing with REAL ESTATE in the area that I live. Over the past week 5 of 10 listings between $1Mil and $4.4MIL have gone under contract. I can also see the data, and most of these properties are not selling at big discounts....they are selling at full price.

A form of.......SHOPPING THERAPY.

 

WHOOPS.....spoke too soon above. By the time things settled after the close, I did beat the SP500 today by .17%. YES......a double win.........a green day and a SP500 beat!

 

I DO find it interesting. We are in week 3 or 4 of earnings and some big companies are now reporting daily. AND.......no one is paying the slightest attention to the numbers. Everyone talked about earnings and how they were going to impact the markets and cause the DREADED testing of the lows. BUT.....now that they are here........we already beat that horse to death and no one cares. I dont see any impact at all. EVERYONE is TOTALLY discounting these earnings completely as unreliable and irrelevant.

I dont see why this would change going forward over the next 3-4 weeks as we finish up with the reporting. If this turns out to be true, earnings will......in FACT turn out to be......one great BIG NOTHING BURGER.

I am NOT saying this will save the markets. We still have to deal with the continuation of this situation.....and......the reopening of the economy. We also have to deal with all the various ways this shut down of the economy and the stimulus debt we are taking on will impact society, the economy, and business for the next 6-12 months.

The ONLY way to look at this situation is through the lens of being a long term investor. AND.....through that lens, the future is ALWAYS bright.

I am not finding much investing or long term investing content to post lately with the OBSESSION of the media and society being the virus. That is as expected. The GOOD NEWS......we are slogging thorough the days and are nearly a month and a half into this shut down......AND.....there is definately a light at the end of the tunnel. We are.......DAILY.......seeing that ALL of the dire predictions of death, collapse, markets, etc, etc, are turning out to be........NOT TRUE. We are STILL in the middle of this thing....but, at least we have made it to the middle in relatively good shape.

 

THIS is what leadership looks like:

Coronavirus pushes Jeff Bezos to take back the wheel at Amazon: Report

https://www.foxbusiness.com/busines...eff-bezos-to-focus-on-amazons-problems-report

"After years of working almost exclusively on long-term projects and pushing day-to-day management to lower-level executives, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is focusing on the immediate problems facing Amazon amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to a report by the New York Times.

“For now, my own time and thinking continues to be focused on Covid-19 and how Amazon can help while we’re in the middle of it,” Bezos wrote to shareholders last week.

Bezos has been reportedly joining daily calls to help make decisions related to inventory, coronavirus testing and even how and when Amazon responds to public criticism. Earlier this month, Bezos even made a widely publicized visit to one of Amazon’s warehouses, a move not seen in years..........."

MY COMMENT

AMAZON is a superb company with great management and execution at every level. It represents the largest holding in every portfolio that I manage.

TOMORROW, we will see more unemployment numbers. For the most part the markets simply note them, ignore them, and move on. It will be interesting to see if the new number has any impact on the markets.

 

A BIG WIN for my account today........well.......not really. BUT, at least a gain......by the slightest margin.......+.01%. AND.....I beat the SP500 by .06%. YES.....these days I will take whatever I can get.

I am just glad that today was kind of a go nowhere day. NOT enough traders and profit takers to wipe out yesterdays gain.

 

Nice to see you Sunshine. I like your online name.....it is nice and POSITIVE. I dont think you can go wrong with Amazon. As to TESLA.......I dont do AUTO stocks, especially new companies like TESLA....so I have no opinion on it, other than the fact that I will not own it or any of the other auto stocks. There is a thread on this forum by TomB16, he has had TESLA for a while and would be a good person to chime in on the stock and company. Perhaps he will read this and post his analysis.

YOU do realize that by buying yesterday YOU are responsible for what the markets do today. It will YOUR fault if we are down today.