The Long Term Investor

AND.....in about a year or less you will be.......40! Your life will be over......SO SORRY for you. Are you still mostly in the SP500? I think that is what you were doing. If not or if my memory is wrong.......what is your current portfolio?

NOT trying to OUT your real identity online........but......what general area do you live in and what are you seeing about investing, housing prices, business closures, how people are feeling about the future, etc, etc, in your area?

 

GREAT analysis TomB16.

WELL........not a bad close to another week. Down for the week about 1.3%.......but........not bad considering. TODAY was another........very nicely....green day in my account. Ended up at the same place as the SP500......+1.39%.

I am VERY satisfied with how the markets have been performing over the past weeks, since I started and completed my reinvestment of cash. Even a down week like this one.....mild enough of a loss to not really be an issue and good strength shown in the markets over about half of the week. I consider it a...........WIN. If we can continue to string together more and more positive and RATIONALLY negative weeks we will SKATE our way right past this little event.

EVERY week that passes is a BIG PLUS. EVERY week is another 7 days that we are putting distance between ourselves as investors and the DIRE potential of this event. Time is our friend right now. As investors become more and more used to the current environment, ADAPT to it, and we start to open up the economy, good things will happen for stocks and funds.

 

Yes.....perhaps. I USUALLY try to think in terms of "probability" when it comes to anything that touches on investing. So....I DO believe that the probability...taking into account all current info.....is that the mortality rates will be lower then expected. BUT.....with the overlay of the election, human emotion, etc, etc,.....and all the other issues that come into play....it is EXTREMELY OPAQUE.

I know it sounds harsh....BUT....whatever it is, it is. By the time we actually know, it will mostly be over with. We NEED to get to the point where the figures are based on FACT and not models. I look forward to that time since it will mean that we are nearly done with this "stuff".

HERE is where we are at the end of this week:

DOW year to date (-16.69%)
SP500 year to date (-12.20%)

We are one good.......SMALL..... rally from the SP500 being positive for the year to date. AND....about a.......MEDIUM....rally for the DOW. BUT......all need to keep in mind that we could just as easily see both averages go down by the same amounts which would take the DOW down to the (-32%) range and the SP down to the (-25%) range.

IN OTHER WORDS.....who the "F" knows. That is the BIG reason I am a LONG TERM investor. There is NO way I want to gamble my money on short term market guesswork.

 

My wife and I BOTH had some sort of virus in November. I knew a lot of people around here that had the same symptoms in October, November, and December. Wiped out feeling, fever/chills, cough, etc, etc, lasting from a week to three weeks. It hit me hard and put me in bed for 4-5 days than was gone. My wife, it hit her harder and lingered for 3 weeks. We hope that it was this virus since that would mean that we are likely immune now. At age 70 and with both of us having some moderate preexisting issues we are moderate to high risk.

BUT like with investing.....I am very CLINICAL about this sort of stuff. I am NOT concerned about this virus. I am surprised by how FEARFUL many in younger generations are right now. I dont see that in the older generations, at least those that I know and have contact with. BUT....we grew up with the REALITY of Polio, Smallpox, Measles, Chicken Pox, Mumps, Whooping Cough, The Draft, The Vietnam War, and many other diseases that were not controllable and treatable like they are now.

I dont live in the past....the present is USUALLY better than the "good old days"......BUT, I do miss the old Walter Cronkite......straight news.......with NO editorializing or commentary. ALL the screaming back and forth in the media gets so TIRING.

As you say TomB16.....this could have been around longer than known.....perhaps even into the fall of 2019.

 

This sort of STUFF also makes the reporting of numbers and data IRRATIONAL. Our data is so suspect that it is impossible to know if the numbers are better or worse then reported.

coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, accuracy

https://www.foxnews.com/us/pa-remov...estions-mount-reporting-process-data-accuracy

"Pennsylvania has corrected its coronavirus data multiple times over the past week to account for irregularities, according to new reports.

Earlier this week, Pennsylvania started to include “probable deaths” in its fatalities. As a result, the total number of coronavirus deaths grew by 276, then 360, in successive nights, almost doubling the number of deaths in the state in two days. The Pennsylvania Department of Health (DOH) subsequently removed 200 deaths from its count after facing mounting questions about the accuracy of the count.

Health Secretary Rachel Levine spoke to the Philadelphia Inquirer about the initial decision to include probable deaths, as well as the decision to later remove those from the count........"

(See article for additional info)

SO........INVESTORS beware. This is NOT the time to be making moves based on breaking news.....UNLESS.....you are a short term or day trader.

 

I debated with MYSELF whether or not to post this article. Since it is the weekend and there is little investing content out there anyway.......I decided to just post it. PERSONALLY.......my opinion is in agreement with the portions that I put into BOLD. I know that many will have contrary opinions. My personal opinions are based on my very clinical personality AND what I consider the PROBABILITIES of this virus situation.

I post this for discussion and thought.......NOT......as a reply or slam or comment directed at ANYONE on this board. Since this is simply OPINION.......the verdict is still out.

This Pandemic Is Over. Let's Stop the Economic Suicide, and Get Back to Work

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...omic_suicide_and_get_back_to_work_490025.html

(BOLD is my opinion)

"With the latest reports of plummeting death rates from all causes, this crisis is over. The pandemic of doom erupted as a panic of pols and is now a comedy of Mash-minded med admins and stooges, covering their ifs ands and butts with ever more morbid and distorted statistics.

The crisis now will hit the politicians and political Doctor Faucis who gullibly accepted and trumpeted what statistician William Briggs calls “the most colossal and costly blown forecast of all time.”

An egregious statistical horror story of millions of projected deaths, suffused with incense and lugubrious accents from Imperial College of London to Harvard School of Public Health, prompted the pols to impose a vandalistic lockdown on the economy. It would have been an outrage even if the assumptions were not wildly astronomically wrong.

Flattening the curve was always a fool’s errand that widened the damage.

President Trump had better take notice. He will soon own this gigantic botch of policy and leadership. No one will notice that his opponents urged even more panicky blunders.

The latest figures on overall death rates from all causes show no increase at all. Deaths are lower than in 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2015, slightly higher than in 2016. Any upward bias is imparted by population growth.

Now writing a book on the crisis with bestselling author Jay Richards, Briggs concludes: “Since pneumonia deaths are up, yet all deaths are down, it must mean people are being recorded as dying from other things at smaller rates than usual.” Deaths from other causes are simply being ascribed to the coronavirus.

As usual every year, deaths began trending downward in January. It’s an annual pattern. Look it up. Since the lockdown began in mid-March, the politicians cannot claim that their policies had anything to do with the declining death rate.

A global study published in Israel by Professor Isaac Ben-Israel, chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and Council on Research and Development, shows that “the spread of the coronavirus declines to almost zero after 70 days—no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.”

In fact, by impeding herd immunity, particularly among students and other non-susceptible young people, the lockdown in the U.S. has prolonged and exacerbated the medical problem. As Briggs concludes, “People need to get out into virus-killing sunshine and germicidal air.”

This flu like all previous viral flues will give way only to herd immunity, whether through natural propagation of an extremely infectious pathogen, or through the success of one of the hundreds of vaccine projects.

No evidence indicates that this flu was exceptionally dangerous. On March 20th, the French published a major controlled study that shows no excess mortality at all from coronavirus compared to other flues. SARS and Mers were both much more lethal and did not occasion what Briggs’ reader “Uncle Dave” described as “taking a hammer and sickle to the economy.”

We now know that the crisis was a comedy of errors. The Chinese let it get going in the raw bat markets of Wuhan. But together with the Koreans, the Chinese dithered and demurred and allowed six weeks of rampant propagation to create herd immunity before they began locking everyone up. Therefore, the Chinese and Koreans were among the first to recover.

The Italians scared everybody with their haphazard health system and smoking fogies. Crammed together in subways and tenements, the New Yorkers registered a brief blip of extreme cases. Intubations and ventilators turned out not to help (80 percent died). This sowed fear and frustration among medical personnel slow to see that the problem was impaired hemogloblin in the blood rather than lung damage.

The New York media piled on with panic, with bogus reports of rising deaths. “Coronavirus deaths” soared by assuming that people dying with the virus were dying from it and then by ascribing to the coronavirus other deaths among people with symptoms of pulmonary distress, even without being tested.

Now jacking up the case rate will be further pointless testing. As Briggs points out, “Fauci is calling for ‘tripling’ of testing, which can only boost these dailies [case totals]. And make it seem like there’s a genuine increase occurring. Oh my! The daily reported cases are up! It must mean the disease is spreading!

“No. It could also mean, and probably does given all the other evidence we now have from sampling, that the disease was already there, and we just now have measured it.”

The death rate rises with further reclassification of pneumonia and other pulmonary deaths. When we reach herd immunity, and nearly everyone has the antigen, nearly all deaths can be chalked up to COVID19. Hey, it will be Quod Erat Demonstrandum for the panic mongers.

In a fascinating open letter to German Prime Minister Angela Merkel, epidemiologist Mihai Grigorius concludes that with the French study, corroborated by findings from a Stanford antibody seroprevalence study in Santa Clara county, “the case for extreme measures collapses like a house of cards.” Grigorius says that since the virus has already spread widely in the general population, efforts to stop further spread are both futile and destructive.

So let’s stop pretending that our policies have been rational and need to be phased out, as if they once had a purpose. They should be reversed summarily and acknowledged to be a mistake, perpetrated by statisticians with erroneous computer models.

Perhaps then we can learn from this experience with the flaws of expertise not to shut down the economy again for the totally bogus “crisis” of climate change."

MY COMMENT

SEE I told you so....about half will agree with these arguments, half will drastically NOT agree. BUT......for any that remain open minded.......I DOUBT there are many on the fence at this point......food for thought and perhaps a starting point for online research and education.

SO.......lets ALL have a good weekend. The economic reopening is started and WILL progress very quickly.....much quicker that people think. GERMANY and other countries are also reopening. The MEDIA is already starting to move on to other issues a little bit. Interest in this topic will WANE QUICKLY and in a few months we will be on to other subjects and topics in our usual media sensationalist, supermarket tabloid fashion.

AND.....regardless of political, personal, or other opinion......mine included.....lets ALL pull for a good week as investors next week. We have a GOOD VARIETY of opinion and thinking on this board and that is a STRENGTH. The DIVERSITY of thinking on this board benefits ALL of us in our investment thinking and analysis. Day by day, week by week, we ARE moving forward.......AND.....will continue to do so. I appreciate being able to post on here during this virus situation and ALSO appreciate ALL the various views and thoughts.........agree or disagree.

 

This coming week will be a BIG ONE in the markets slow and erratic slog back to normal. EARNINGS will be in full force as we hit the peak of the reporting. AND......so far at least.....stocks in general are performing better than many expected.

Why a flood of bad economic data isn't rattling stocks

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"London (CNN Business)Investors are getting pummeled with grim economic data from March and April. Although it doesn't look pretty, stocks are largely standing their ground.

The latest: With much of the world on lockdown, measures that chart economic activity are repeatedly hitting their lowest levels on record. Even so, stock market volatility is at half its peak in mid-March, and inflows to top-rated US corporate bond funds continued last week.

This makes sense given that most markets turn before recessions end, according to John Normand, the head of cross-asset fundamental strategy at JPMorgan. "The focus should be more on the return to growth than the contraction in the economy," he told me.

That doesn't mean different asset classes will all recover at the same speed. US credit markets are more likely to follow a "V" trajectory given the Federal Reserve's decision to step in and buy corporate bonds, Normand observed. Stocks, he said, could take longer to snap back — though they also benefit from the Fed's actions, which have helped loosen financial conditions. Normand thinks the S&P 500 will end the year higher.

Oil is clearly on a different path. Last week, US oil futures settled in negative territory for the first time ever, indicating that traders were effectively paying people to take American crude off their hands because of concerns they'd have nowhere to store it.
Volatility in the oil market could continue for the next two months but may ease by the summer, as production cuts by OPEC take hold and some economic activity resumes, Normand said. Prices could then push back up to the $30-to-$40-per-barrel range —but they won't return to pre-crisis levels any time soon.

What it means: There are plenty of lingering risks to markets, including the threat that growth won't pick up as much as expected once lockdowns end, and the chance that infections could surge once people start leaving their homes, Normand said. But many investors are already looking to the second half of the year and beyond.

This backdrop could cushion the blow from bleak first-quarter GDP data due this week. Economists on average think that the US economy shrunk at an annualized rate of 4% between January and March, its worst quarter in more than a decade. Europe's economy is expected to have contracted at an annualized rate of 3.4%.

The second quarter is poised to be much worse, Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics, reminded clients on Friday. The research firm expects US economy to contract at a rate of 40% between April and June.

The biggest American companies report earnings this week

It's a huge week for corporate earnings, with 34% of the S&P 500 due to report for the January to March period.

Low expectations: FactSet projects that S&P 500 earnings will decline by nearly 16% for the quarter, which would be the largest year-over-year decline since the second quarter of 2009.

But the biggest US companies will share results this coming week, including Microsoft, Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon, Apple and Facebook (FB).

These tech giants have weathered the Covid-19 storm better than most — particularly Amazon (AMZN), whose shares are up nearly 30% this year as online deliveries soar, and Microsoft (MSFT), whose stock has risen 9%, in part because of the ongoing need for cloud services.

Apple (AAPL) is under more pressure because of supply chain issues and lower demand for nonessential products — a category that likely includes iPhones. Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said a key question for CEO Tim Cook will be any clues around the launch of Apple's 5G phones, which he said are expected to drive profits over the next 12 to 18 months.
Those investors who claim the first quarter is old news will still have plenty to learn from this week. Companies with heavy exposure to China — including Caterpillar (CAT), 3M (MMM) and Starbucks (SBUX) — are also on the docket, shining a light on how shutdowns in the country affected their businesses.

Up next

Monday: Adidas (ADDDF), Restaurant Brands (QSR) and Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP) earnings

Tuesday: Bank of Japan meeting; US consumer confidence; 3M (MMM), BP (BP), Caterpillar (CAT), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Merck (MKGAF), PepsiCo (PEP), Pfizer (PFE), UBS (UBS), UPS (UPS), Xerox (XRX), Alphabet, Ford (F), Starbucks and Yum China (YUMC) earnings

Wednesday: US first-quarter GDP; Europe business confidence; Federal Reserve meeting; Boeing (BA), Dine Brands (DIN), GE (GE), Hasbro (HAS), Mastercard (MA), Yum Brands (YUM), Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT), Qualcomm (QCOM), Samsung (SSNLF), Volkswagen (VLKAF), Deutsche Bank (DB), Airbus (EADSF) and Tesla (TSLA) earnings

Thursday: Europe first-quarter GDP; European Central Bank interest rate decision; US initial unemployment claims; American Airlines (AAL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Comcast (CCZ), Dunkin (DNKN), Kellogg (K), Kraft Heinz (KHC), McDonald's (MCD), Molson Coors (TAP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA), Twitter (TWTR), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Visa (V) earnings

Friday: US auto sales; ISM Manufacturing Index; Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM)and Honeywell (HON) earnings"

MY COMMENT

This next week will be a KEY week for earnings. It will be interesting to see if we continue with the markets mostly ignoring earnings. OBVIOUSLY these earnings dont have much connection to REALITY......at least the long term reality. I assume that most of the MEDIA interest and focus will be on the continued reopening of the economy as more and more local areas and states continue with the reopening process.

BE AWARE....that most of the MEDIA focus going forward for the next 2-4 weeks will be on local stories pushing DOOM&GLOOM and FEAR&PANIC over the reopening. EVERY DAY will be continuous anecdotal stories of how the reopening is failing and causing more death and destruction. The REALITY is.....of course.....that it will be the MEDIA that is causing much of the problem with their USUAL focus on SENSATIONALISM. BUT.....you cant really blame them....they are in a BIG battle for survival and relevance.

The good news will be the fact that reopening WILL happen and will move forward......regardless. AND, people will quickly tire of the negativity being expresses and will move on with their lives. As a result, the media will move on to other stories to push.........but I am guessing it will take about a month or so.

 

Looking BEYOND this virus "stuff".........the BIG issue going forward.....in my opinion....will continue to be DEFLATION. Yes....many probably thought I was going to say INFLATION. BUT, no......the world has been in a big deflationary mess for the past 10 years. THE USA has been doing FINE in this environment.......BUT......we have also been experiencing a deflationary environment for that time. As a FREE MARKET, CAPITALISTIC, economy we are weathering this event and selling and producing for the rest of the world. The countries that are based on capitalism.....Canada, Australia, England, USA, etc, etc, will be fine. The rest of the SOCIALISTIC based world will SUCK.

Deflation Debate Heats Up in Bond Market Ahead of Fed Meeting

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deflation-debate-heats-bond-market-110000033.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Bond investors are starting to debate whether the U.S. is heading into a deflationary spiral, even after trillions of dollars of stimulus to offset the pandemic-driven hit to growth.

This year’s collapse in oil prices and the drumbeat of staggeringly weak economic data are putting the question front and center as the Federal Reserve meets this week. The central bank is expected to sit tight for now and assess the programs it’s rolled out in the past month to calm markets, while reiterating a commitment to do more as needed.

But with market-based gauges showing investors see inflation stuck at best around half of the Fed’s target for the next decade, the risk of falling prices is creeping into money managers’ calculus. For Fred Marki at Western Asset Management Co., it comes down to the pace of economic recovery and the availability of testing and medical advances. Although the firm anticipates activity will start to revive, for now it favors areas it sees as having factored in the risk of falling prices and earnings, including investment-grade company debt.

“We think that there will be a sufficient relaxation of restrictions that will allow activity to pick up in the third quarter,” said Marki whose firm manages $460 billion in mostly fixed income. “We do not expect a multiyear deflationary era; rather, we expect deflation to be seen just over the course of the next year.”

Ten-year breakeven rates, a proxy for the market’s average inflation expectations into 2030, have stabilized after slumping in March to the lowest since early 2009, following a brief spell below zero. They’re now around 1.1%, up from as low as 0.47% last month.

The Fed targets 2% inflation and its favored gauge has missed the mark for much of the last eight years. Data this week are expected to show the measure slipped to 1.3% in March, the lowest since November.

The deflation debate is crucial for investors. The experience of Japan shows policy makers may struggle to reverse the phenomenon of dropping prices should it occur in the U.S. That dynamic could reignite the rush into Treasuries and drive yields below zero, said Ed Moya at Oanda Corp.

“Crippling demand is going to persist over the next year despite everything done to stabilize the economy,” said Moya, a senior market analyst.

When the Fed slashed rates to near zero at an emergency meeting March 15, policy makers pointed to below-target inflation and the need to lift prices as one reason for the move.

This month, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said policy makers “have the tools to keep the economy out of deflation.” Days later, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said it’s hard to get a good read on inflation at the moment, but there’s some risk of deflation.

Craig Pernick, head of fixed income for Chevy Chase Trust, sees no way for consumer spending to rebound over the next one or two years, leaving him “solidly” in the deflationary camp for now. On the other hand, Bill Merz, whose team oversees $180 billion at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, expects negative inflation readings to be short-lived.

“We aren’t designing portfolios with the expectation of deflation,” Merz said. “However, longer-term high quality bonds, particularly long-term Treasuries, provide a solid deflation hedge.”

What to Watch

Traders will monitor how the market fares after the Fed reduced the pace of its Treasuries buying again Friday, while on Wednesday the focus will be on the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference.Investors will also look to the Bank of Japan’s meeting Monday, with the Nikkei reporting officials will discuss unlimited government-bond buying. The European Central Bank reveals its latest policy decision Thursday.The U.S. economic calendar:April 27: Retail trade revisions; Dallas Fed manufacturing April 28: Advance goods trade balance; wholesale/retail inventories; S&P CoreLogic home price data; Conference Board consumer confidence and expectations; Richmond Fed manufacturingApril 29: MBA mortgage applications; first-quarter advance GDP; pending home salesApril 30: Personal income/spending; personal consumption expenditures deflator data; jobless claims; employment cost index; MNI Chicago PMI; Bloomberg consumer comfortMay 1: Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI; construction spending; ISM manufacturing; Wards total vehicle salesThe auction schedule:April 27: 13-, 26-week bills; 2- and 5-year notesApril 28: 2-year floating-rate notes; 7-year notes; 43-day cash-management billApril 29: 119-day CMB; 273-day CMBApril 30: 4-, 8-week bills"

MY COMMENT

The FED is incompetent and is delusional when it thinks they could handle deflation or for that matter inflation. What will get us through this sort of environment is our position as the WORLD LEADER in business and production......AND.....our position as one of the very FEW capitalistic, democratic countries left in the world. There are very few countries in the world that are based on the English model of personal freedom and common law........AND....it is not random chance that those countries are always in the top when it comes to success in world business and economics. Some countries like Germany and Japan have adapted those business values successfully which are a good fit to their underlying cultures. India is another country that has shown great promise in spite of rampant poverty. The BOTTOM LINE is that personal freedom and freedom from government regulation and taxation are the key to business success for ANY country.

A BIG part of the world wide deflationary environment that we have been in for the past TEN years is the SOCIALISM that is rampant around the world, especially in the EU countries. With the regulation, bureaucratic government policies, and ever expanding government control and micro management of their society........those countries.......they are DOOMED to be economic failures gong forward. As for the third world and developing countries.....forget it. I have been hearing about how those countries are going to be the next big thing for fifty years.......IT NEVER HAPPENS.

 

SOME random predictions.......opinions. I hear and read:

Things will never be the same after this......WRONG....within a few months things will be EXACTLY the same as always.

It will be a new normal......WRONG.....we will quickly go back to the same old normal as before this event.

Our society will change......WRONG.....it will be exactly the same after this stuff wears off in 2-6 months.

It will take years for people to get back to normal......WRONG....it will take about 2-6 months.

I have been out today and traffic is NORMAL. People are everywhere and active. I see that this stay at home "stuff" will last till about the end of April.......that is about ALL people will tolerate in a FREE society. I am hearing and seeing more and more about states and parts of states opening back up. SOON manufacturing and construction in......New York (gasp)....will open back up. Some states will push it to May 9 others will push it to May15. BUT.....more than that and there will simply be mass cival disobedience and disrespect for the law. Even people that I read on a few progressive sites that I follow are starting to ask why XXXXX big business is allowed to be open and not the small business.

 

I am NOT SHY on my views when it comes to AMAZON. This company is a once in a lifetime investment. Even today, I would STILL invest in this company. I might wait for a nice DOWN day.......but.....I would not wait long. This stock is the largest investment in EVERY portfolio that I manage.

Amazon may be the ultimate coronavirus-proof stock

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/investing/amazon-stock-coronavirus/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"New York (CNN Business)Amazon has come under fire lately from workers in warehouses concerned about their safety during the Covid-19 pandemic. But this controversy isn't making investors nervous. Not at all.

In fact, shares of Amazon (AMZN) have surged about 30% this year and finished at a new all-time closing high of $2,410.22 on Friday.

The Jeff Bezos-led company is now worth $1.2 trillion -- about the same as Apple (AAPL) and trailing only cloud rival Microsoft (MSFT) in the battle for the most valuable publicly traded firm in the United States.

Amazon -- along with fellow retail leader Walmart (WMT) -- is expected to be a big winner as many Americans shelter in place and order nearly everything they need online.

"While its global supply chain and delivery/fulfillment services could be somewhat hobbled by the Covid-19 disruption, Amazon should see an e-commerce surge on increased online shopping amid in-home confinement," said CFRA analyst Tuna Amobi in a report Friday.

The company is also benefiting from some of the same stay-at-home trends that are boosting streaming king Netflix (NFLX). Amazon Prime subscribers can also binge watch programs on the company's Prime Instant Video service.

Analysts expect that the company will report a more than 20% increase in sales -- to a whopping $73 billion. All of this bodes well for Amazon as it gets ready to report its first quarter earnings on April 30

The company's formidable presence in the extremely lucrative and highly profitable cloud business through its Amazon Web Services unit is another plus for the stock, said John Conlon, director of equity strategies with People's United Advisors.

Almost every analyst that covers Amazon rates it a buy
These factors are among the many reasons the stock is still adored by nearly every Wall Street analyst that covers the company. According to data from Refinitiv, 49 of the 51 analysts who follow Amazon have the stock rated a buy. (Two have it as a hold.)

Wall Street analysts are typically very bullish when it comes to large cap companies, but this level of near unanimous approval is almost unheard of. A handful of them have sell ratings on Apple, Facebook (FB) and Netflix, for example. But analysts can hardly contain their bullishness for Amazon.

Goldman Sachs analyst Heath Terry boosted his price target for Amazon to $2,900 a share on Thursday, 20% above the stock's current price and the highest price target on Wall Street for the company.

Terry said in a report that "the increase in demand [for] the company's retail, AWS, and ads businesses...and Amazon's ability to meet the challenges of this demand" will boost its long-term growth rate and make the company even tougher to compete against.

"We believe the market continues to underestimate the long term value of the Amazon platform," Terry added, saying that it will likely remain a leader in both online retail and cloud computing.

Risks remain but investors shrug them off
Still, aren't there some risks for Amazon? Well, the company could come under increased scrutiny for its labor practices. Bad headlines may dent its reputation with consumers and potentially lead them to shop less at Amazon and Whole Foods and ditch their Prime memberships.

There is also the potential for more regulatory crackdowns on the company, especially if President Trump is re-elected. Trump has made it no secret that he is not a fan of Bezos, who personally owns The Washington Post, a newspaper that is often critical of Trump and his policies.

AWS lost out on the chance to snag a huge Pentagon contract that went to Microsoft's Azure cloud unit last year. Amazon sued to contest the decision, arguing that Trump's animus toward Bezos may have been a factor in the decision. The Defense Department has since said it will reevaluate its decision.

But Amazon has weathered Trump's firestorm and other negative news coverage so far.
"The reason Amazon is the focus of so much controversy is because it is so successful and dominant," said Tom Plumb, manager of the Plumb Balanced Fund, which owns shares of Amazon.
"We don't know what people are going to buy, but they are likely to buy it from Amazon," Plumb added.""

MY COMMENT

A WORLD CLASS company......and......a once in a lifetime investment. BUT......with the perverse way the markets act....I would not be surprized with the stock going down in spite of AMAZING earnings. BUT.....any dip....if it even happens will be very short term, probably just a few days.

 

YEP.....it is about that easy. Invest in 10-20 good SOLID companies that are economic leaders and perhaps a fund or two.........and.....reinvest all dividends and capital gains. ADD in additional money any time you can. AND......hold for the LONG TERM. Time and compounding will do the heavy lifting.

VERY NICE open to the week today. We hit the GUTS of earnings over the next 4 days and the markets did not show any skittishness today at all. This week has the potential to add some pretty good gains....depending....on how the markets see those earnings. I am HOPING that today is an OMEN of good things to come over the rest of the week.

From what I am seeing, the public is responding to reopening smartly and with GUSTO. There is HUGE PENT UP DEMAND for all the various types of services and businesses that are reopening. THAT is very good news for the general economy and the markets going forward.

 

SP500 kicked my BUTT today......beat me by .84%. BUT.....today was a nice GREEN day, which I will ALWAYS take. I am hopeful that this week will set a POSITIVE tone for the markets going forward. We will know in four days.

 

ONE of my 11....very concentrated.....stock holdings reported nice earnings today. MMM....3M. Last I looked the stock was UP $8 a share, a little bit over 5%. A good start to the day for earnings:

3M shares rise after first quarter sales increase on ‘strong’ demand for personal safety products

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/3m-mmm-earnings-q1-2020.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• 3M says it saw “strong” numbers in its personal safety unit in the first quarter given its role in the production of N95 respirator masks amid the Covid-19 outbreak.
• It said that it’s doubled global respirator output to 100 million per month since the beginning of 2020 and is working to double respirator output again.
• 3M is also withdrawing its full-year financial guidance thanks to uncertainty about the duration, magnitude and pace of recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

3M shares jumped Tuesday after the manufacturing conglomerate reported first-quarter earnings and revenues that topped Wall Street’s expectations as demand for safety equipment and cleaning products spiked amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The company said in a release that it saw a mix of results across its segments, but especially “strong” numbers in its personal safety unit given its role in the production of key N95 respirator masks.

The St. Paul, Minnesota-based 3M said Tuesday that it’s doubled global respirator output to 100 million per month since the beginning of 2020 and is increasing capital investment to double respirator output again.

It reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.16 on revenues of $8.08 billion for the first quarter, growth of 2.7% on a year-over-year basis. Both figures topped Wall Street consensus estimates of EPS of $2.03 and sales of $7.91 billion based on Refinitiv research.

Still, it’s difficult to compare reported earnings to analyst estimates for 3M’s first quarter as the impact of the coronavirus is tricky to model precisely in financial forecasts. Shares were last seen up 3.5% in premarket trading.


“Given the breadth and diversity of our businesses, the financial impact of COVID-19 is varying across 3M,” CEO Mike Roman said in a release. Total sales grew 21% in its health-care segment and 4.6% in consumer, the company said.

“In the first quarter we saw strong growth in personal safety, as well as in other areas of our portfolio experiencing high demand due to the pandemic,” he added. “At the same time, we experienced weak demand in several end markets that were more severely impacted by actions taken around the world to slow the pandemic.”

As such, 3M announced Tuesday that it is withdrawing its full-year financial guidance, saying uncertainty about the duration, magnitude and pace of recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic makes it impossible to provide meaningful estimates.

However, 3M said it would begin reporting monthly sales information starting in May to provide investors transparency on 3M’s ongoing business performance.

It added that it will make adjustments to how it spends its cash amid the outbreak. 3M said it’s making “aggressive” cost reductions while minimizing employee impact for estimated cost savings of $350 million to $400 million in the second quarter.

It also said it will now be prioritizing organic investments, protecting its beloved per-share dividend — which it increased 2% to $1.47 before the end of the first quarter — and suspending its share repurchase program.

“We believe that these quarterly results were better than feared and indicated that there were still pockets of growth in personal safety, food safety, general cleaning, and biopharma filtration,” RBC analyst Deane Dray wrote of the results.

“3M’s explicit prioritization of its dividend should also alleviate any concerns over a dividend cut,” he added. “As a result, we expect 3M shares to modestly outperform peers by roughly low-single-digits on Apr-28.”

Trump and 3M reach agreement on masks to help coronavirus response after dispute
The Trump administration and public health officials have been laser-focused on 3M in recent weeks as it ramps production of its N95 masks that that filter small particles and droplets from the air. The masks have proven exceptional for their ability to protect wearers from contracting the infectious coronavirus.

The N95 masks have proven so important to the public health campaign that President Donald Trump ordered 3M to accelerate their production after invoking the Defense Production Act on April 2.

The president also tweeted that same day that the administration “hit 3M hard today after seeing what they were doing with their Masks,” a comment that appeared to refer to the company’s move to sell some of their N95 masks to Canada and Latin America.

A few days later, Trump announced that the White House and 3M had reached an agreement that included the government’s purchase of nearly 167 million masks over the next three months. 3M continues to ship N95 masks around the globe to continue to fill global orders.

“We share the same goals of providing much-needed respirators to Americans across our country and combating criminals who seek to take advantage of the current crisis,” Roman said on April 6. “Given the reality that demand for respirators outpaces supply, we are working around the clock to further expand our capacity, while prioritizing and redirecting our supplies to serve the most critical areas.”"

MY COMMENT

A GOOD start to the day. MORE important earnings will come out later today that will have an impact on market direction this week. If ANYTHING good comes out of this virus event it will be the suspension of share buy-backs at many if not all companies. What a RIDICULOUS waste of money and corporate assets. There are MANY much better ways to create shareholder value.

 

HERE is another little bit of a taste of earnings today:

"3M beat on both the top and bottom lines as strong demand for N95 respirator masks boosted results in the company’s personal safety unit.

Heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar reported sales slumped 21 percent from a year ago amid weak demand from miners and construction companies.

Drugmaker Merck reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue as sales of cancer drug Keytruda lifted results. The company lowered its 2020 profit forecast because social-distancing measures are likely to reduce trips to doctors’ offices, where 66 percent of sales are made through the administration of drugs.

Rival drugmaker Pfizer beat on profit and sales and reaffirmed its full-year revenue forecast. The company expects to begin human trials for a potential coronavirus treatment by the end of this month.

Elsewhere on the earnings front, Southwest Airlines posted a $94 million first-quarter loss and warned business would remain weak through at least May. The airline could not provide any more clarity on business going forward.

Harley-Davidson said profit plunged 46 percent from a year ago to $69.7 million as COVID-19 choked sales. The motorcycle-maker took a series of steps to save cash, including slashing its dividend to 2 cents a share from 38 cents, and announced the development of a new strategic plan."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-april-28-2020

 

DONT even have to look at my account today. DOUBLE RED........did not beat the SP500 and ended up in the red. the only stocks that are up are HON and MMM.....unless something changed at the end of the day. NO doubt....earnings driven. BUT.....not much of a drop and considering the current situation I consider TODAY a positive day when I look at how the markets reacted through the day. VERY MINIMAL drop considering the BIG earnings reports today before and after the bell.

In fact here is one report:

Alphabet stock rises on 13% revenue growth

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/alphabet-googl-earnings-q1-2020.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Alphabet shares rose as much as 4% in extended trading on Tuesday after the company reported earnings for the first quarter, during which the coronavirus spread globally.

Here’s how the company did:

• Earnings: $9.87 per share, adjusted
• Revenue: $41.16 billion
• Cloud revenue: $2.78 billion
• YouTube advertising revenue: $4.04 billion
• Traffic acquisition costs: $7.45 billion

Alphabet’s revenue growth rate slowed to 13% in the quarter from 17% one quarter earlier, according to a statement. Advertising still makes up the vast majority of Alphabet’s total revenue, at 82%.

Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv had expected $10.33 in adjusted earnings per share on $40.29 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected $7.51 billion in traffic acquisition costs in the quarter. However, comparing Alphabet’s actual results with estimates isn’t straightforward given the difficulty of predicting the impact of the coronavirus.

“Performance was strong during the first two months of the quarter, but then in March we experienced a significant slowdown in ad revenues,” said Alphabet’s chief financial officer Ruth Porat. “We are sharpening our focus on executing more efficiently, while continuing to invest in our long-term opportunities.”

Google’s “other revenue,” which includes hardware like its Pixel phones and cloud products, came in at $4.44 billion, compared to $3.62 billion in the same quarter a year ago.

Revenue from “Other Bets,” which includes Alphabet’s self-driving car business Waymo as well as life sciences company Verily, came in at at $135 million compared to $170 million in the same quarter the year prior.

Google’s total advertising revenues rose to $33.76 billion from $30.59 billion the prior year.

Travel companies like Expedia Group and Booking Holdings normally spend heavily on Google search ads, since so many travelers search for trips with terms like “flight to London” or “hotel in San Francisco.” But Expedia recently said it normally spends $5 billion on ads, but that it probably “won’t spend $1 billion” this year. Similarly, Booking could slash Google ad spending on Google from about $4 billion in 2019 to $1 billion to $2 billion this year, Mark Mahaney, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, predicted.

Ahead of the report, analysts had expected Alphabet’s second quarter to be the worst impacted as advertisers began pulling back toward the end of the first quarter.

The company has begun to put some cost-cutting measures in place. Last week, CNBC reported that the company is cutting marketing budgets by as much as half while placing freezes on various parts across the company. It also told employees that it would be pulling back investments on from data centers and educational resources for workers. By contrast, the company’s headcount, which is the largest driver of R&D expenses, grew by 4,903 employees in the fourth quarter, a 20% increase from the year prior."

MY COMMENT

Yet another good earnings report......in spite of......this situation. if we can continue to roll through earnings........as we have been doing so far........all the DIRE gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands will have been for NOTHING. BUT.....that is the way the markets are. EXTREMISM is the name of the game when you are a short term market predictor OR a market media personality. BORING, reasonable, logical, analysis gets you nowhere if you are trying to get your name out there.