Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 27th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Check Point Software, Bayer, Adidas, Celanese, Canadian National Railway, Keurig Dr. Pepper, National Oilwell Varco, NXP Semiconductor, PPG Industries Tuesday Earnings: Alphabet, Starbucks, Caterpillar, Merck, Pfizer, UPS, D.R.Horton, Pepsico, Sirius XM, T. Rowe Price, Corning, Southwest Air, UBS, Cummins, MSCI, Vale, Rockwell Automation, T. Rowe Price, Juniper Semiconductor, Akamai, Boyd Gaming, Cerner, FireEye, Oneok, Advanced Micro Devices, Mondelez Fed begins two-day meeting 8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators 9:00 a.m S&P/Case-Shiller home prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence Wednesday Earnings: Boeing, Microsoft, Airbus, Facebook, Tesla, Qualcomm, Anthem, AstraZeneca, Boston Scientific, GlaxoSmithKline, General Dynamics, Mastercard, Norfolk Southern, Humana, Northrop Grumman, Sherwin-Williams, Valero, eBay, Aflac, Raymond James, General Electric, Avery Dennison, Transocean 8:30 a.m. First-quarter GDP 10:00 a.m. Pending home sales 2 p.m. Fed statement 2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing Thursday Earnings: Amazon.com, Apple, Comcast, Gilead Sciences, Twitter, McDonald’s, MGM Resorts, Beazer Homes, BioMarn Pharma, Cabot Oil and Gas, Molina Healthcare, Stryker, Whirlpool, Parker Hannifin, Marsh and McLennan, Nokia, Royal Dutch Shell, Stanley Black and Decker, Six Flags, Moody’s, Dunkin Brands, Carlyle Group, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, Kraft Heinz, Kellogg, Molson Coors Brewing, Public Storage 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Personal income/spending 8:30 a.m. Employment cost index 8:45 a.m. Chicago PMI Friday Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Clorox, Estee Lauder, Johnson Controls, Phillips 66, Newell Brands, Weyerhaueser, Apollo Global Management, Honeywell, Newell Brands Monthly vehicle sales 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending
Gold & Cryptos Surge, Stocks & Oil Purge As Global Economy Crashes Global economic data disappointed/crashed by the most on record this week, plunging to its weakest since the great financial crisis... Source: Bloomberg But, but, but... stocks are up over the last few weeks right... Source: Bloomberg And then there's the ongoing increase in deaths from COVID... Are you not entertained though? Source: Bloomberg Other safe-havens were also bid on the week with Bitcoin back above $7500... (NOTE this is the 6th weekly rise for Bitcoin in a row)... Source: Bloomberg And long-bond yields down 8bps on the week... Source: Bloomberg Small Cap stocks actually outperformed on the week as the Friday afternoon buying panic helped float all boats (ramping Nasdaq green on the week very briefly) but Dow Industrials and Transports were weakest... As has become the norm, at 1550ET, there was an apparent sell imbalance and stocks suddenly reversed... FANG stocks were higher on the week but were mostly rangebound... Source: Bloomberg Bank stocks tumbled on the week... Source: Bloomberg High yield bonds had an ugly week and IG bonds even dropped a little in price... Source: Bloomberg While the long-end of the yield curve was bid, the short-end was wider marginally on the week... Source: Bloomberg The Dollar was up on the week with rallies every day after Europe closed... Source: Bloomberg Oil was a shitshow this week (8th weekly drop in crude oil of the last 9, despite the rebound in the last two days)... Gold was up for the 4th weekly rise in the last 5... Finally, circling back to where we started, here’s a gloomy statistic from Bloomberg to close the week out: Friday’s U.S. durable goods report showed the inventory-to-sales ratio climbed to 1.82 months in March, the highest in almost 11 years. Source: Bloomberg Shipments dropped 4.5%, the most since early 2009, leaving producers with more in inventory and signaling production cutbacks in coming months. At the same time, orders for goods meant to last at least three months tumbled 14.4% -- the most since 2014 -- led by slumping demand for commercial aircraft, Commerce Department data show. So buy stocks?
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
Election-year Mays: DJIA’s Second Worst Month May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April in 69 years compared to a gain of just $9,537 for May-October. May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up eleven times in the past twenty-two years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by twelve sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and five losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972) and Russell 1000 and 2000 (since 1980). LPL Office Talk: Putting The Rally In Perspective One month ago today the S&P 500 Index bottomed after a vicious bear market. Was this the ultimate bottom? We’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is the rally we’ve seen over the past month is nearly as historic as the drop coming into it was. “We recently had the best 20-day rally for the S&P 500 since March 2009 and one of the best ever,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at the previous best 20-day rallies, one thing is consistent: very strong returns going out a year.” As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10 previous best 20-day rallies for the S&P 500 saw continued gains after some near-term volatility. In fact, six months later stocks were higher 9 of 10 times and a full year later higher 10 of 10 times. Why The Recent Strength Has Bulls Smiling The huge equity rally continued last week, with the S&P 500 Index up another 3%, on the heels of adding more than 15% in the previous week. The gain during the past two weeks of 15.5% was the greatest since October 1974. Taking it a step further, the 15 trading days ending April 14 saw the S&P 500 up more than 27%, one of the greatest rallies ever. What we’ve been seeing is truly historic, so the big question now is: What could happen next? “This remarkable rally has caught most off guard, but what might surprise many to hear is more gains could eventually be in store in 2020,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When we’ve seen similar blasts of extreme short-term strength, stocks have been quite strong going out 6- to 12-months.” As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was up nine of 10 times six months later and higher every single time a year later after the previous best 15-day gains ever. Be aware though, some of the returns in the near-term were weak, suggesting a pullback after such a strong move is likely. Still, this much strength in such a short timeframe could very well suggest the rest of 2020 could have bulls smiling. Dogs of the Dow Performance So Far in 2020 Fri, Apr 24, 2020 The average stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16.24% on a total return basis so far in 2020. Below we take a look at how the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy has performed so far this year. The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy is a very passive approach that simply says to buy the 10 stocks in the Dow 30 that have the highest dividend yields at the start of each year. The Dogs list for 2020 was led by Dow Inc. (DOW) with a yield of 5.12% on January 1st. Exxon Mobil (XOM), IBM, Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Walgreens (WBA), Cisco (CSCO), and Coca-Cola (KO) are the nine other members of the Dogs for 2020. As shown in the table below, the Dogs are down an average of 19.37% on a total return basis in 2020, which is a little less than five percentage points worse than the 14.68% decline seen for the 20 non-Dogs this year. Dow Inc. (DOW) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have been the two worst performing Dogs with respective YTD declines of 39.9% and 37.0%. Dow's dividend yield has risen from 5.12% up to 8.47%, while XOM's yield has risen from 4.99% up to 7.91%. There are no Dogs that are up on the year, but Verizon (VZ) and Pfizer (PFE) have been the best performers of the group with YTD declines of less than 5%. Of the non-Dogs, Boeing (BA) has been by far the worst performer with a YTD decline of 60.01%. At the start of 2020, BA had a dividend yield of 2.52%, but that dividend has been suspended. JP Morgan (JPM), American Express (AXP) and Disney (DIS) have all fallen more than 30% YTD, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the only three Dow stocks that are up on the year. Investors Giving Companies a Pass on Earnings So Far Fri, Apr 24, 2020 We're now two weeks into the Q1 2020 earnings season, and just over 200 companies have reported their numbers so far. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings so far this season has been a gain of 0.89%. That's much stronger than the average one-day gain of 0.06% seen for all stocks that have reported earnings since 2001. As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have averaged a one-day price gain of 2.16% on their earnings reaction days. That's stronger than the average one-day gain of 1.89% seen on earnings reaction days for all stocks that have reported since 2001. Stocks that have missed EPS estimates this season have seen a one-day decline of 0.72% on their earnings reaction days. Historically, the average stock that has missed EPS has fallen 3.56% on its earnings reaction day, so this season's decline of just 0.72% suggests that investors are basically giving a pass to companies missing estimates in Q1. Next Week's Economic Indicators Fri, Apr 24, 2020 Even though most economic data releases this week that had forecasts exceeded those estimates (10 of 15), data continues to come in very weak. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index started off the week coming in at –4.19 which was well below estimates of –3. Existing home sales followed up on Tuesday, and despite coming in above estimates, sales slowed considerably from February. Elsewhere in housing data, new home sales collapsed down to 627K SAAR compared to 765K last month. Meanwhile, February home prices showed some acceleration. Jobless claims also were better than expected, but they too remain at extremely elevated levels relative to the rest of history. Manufacturing data was a major area of weakness this week. Both the preliminary Markit PMI and Kansas City Fed reading fell significantly despite coming in better than forecast. Hard manufacturing data on Friday was likewise bad at the headline level though under the hood there were some silver linings. Turning to next week, like the earnings calendar, the economic calendar ramps up with a total of 34 releases. We will get the final two regional Federal Reserve indices from Dallas and Richmond on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, followed by the final Markit and ISM reading for April on Friday. Wednesday will be the most closely watched day of the week with the first release of Q1 GDP as well as an FOMC rate decision. Growth in the first quarter is expected to show a 3.8% contraction. Although no change in rates is being forecast, Fed Chair Powell’s following presser will likely be closely watched for a monetary policy update. Biggest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and More) Fri, Apr 24, 2020 The earnings calendar has begun to ramp up over the past two weeks and over the next two weeks we will see peak earnings season. Next week there are a total of 784 companies scheduled to release earnings. Of those, there are 178 S&P 500 stocks, which is 35.% of the index. In the table below we show the 30 largest stocks (by market cap) that are scheduled to report next week. None of the largest stocks report on Monday, but the two Dow pharmaceutical stocks, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), kick things off Tuesday morning. The trillion dollar market cap club will all report next week with Microsoft (MSFT) out with earnings Wednesday night and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) out the following evening. Two other notable releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will be the major payment processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). Friday will be capped off with two oil giants: Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Other honorable mentions not on this list reporting next week include industrial bell-weather Caterpillar (CAT), stocks likely benefiting from the COVID economy like Colgate Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX), and finally, some travel and leisure stocks like Expedia (EXPE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV). Gold Bounces Right Where It Was Supposed To Thu, Apr 23, 2020 With central banks around the world unleashing waves of liquidity, there have been heightened concerns that one result will be a decline in the purchasing power of our money. For that reason, a number of investors have been flocking to gold. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, gold prices had been in a solid uptrend, and while prices spiked as the crisis first began, they couldn't quite get above the $1,650 - $1,700 range. In mid-March even, prices plummeted with just about every other financial asset before quickly recovering. Once again, though, the rally stalled at resistance. This time around, though, the 50-day moving average was strong enough to provide support and after that test, gold finally got the long-awaited breakout that investors had been waiting for. Gold's price spiked as high as $1,787 per ounce in mid-April before running out of momentum. When a stock or commodity breaks out above resistance to new highs and then pulls back, the former resistance level should act as support, and that is exactly what we saw this time around. This week, gold bounced right on cue at around $1,700 and has since rallied 2.6%. With the first test of support proving successful, look for gold to now establish a new range with a floor at around $1,700. At least that's what the technical analysis textbooks would say. Gauging the Global Bounce Wed, Apr 22, 2020 The US (S&P 500) has managed to quickly re-enter a bull market after the 33.92% decline from 2/19 to 3/23 that brought the post-Financial Crisis bull market to an end. Today, the S&P is now 17.45% below the 2/19 high after rallying nearly 25% since 3/23. As shown in the table below, of the 23 countries in our Global Macro Dashboard, that is the third best rally off of its respective low. Only South Africa and South Korea have rallied more off of their 2020 low on 3/19; a few days before the US bottom. Around half of these countries found a bottom on the same day as the US, 3/23, while the rest were a few days earlier. Italy was the first to bottom on March 12th. But as for the 2020 equity market highs, the US peaked alongside Canada and multiple European countries later than other global economies. For example, South Korea, South Africa, Taiwan, Korea, Russia, Japan, the UK, and Hong Kong all peaked back in January. As for longer term trends, below we provide 10-year price charts (in local currency) of the major stock market indices for the countries listed in the table above. The Covid market crash in the first quarter broke significant long term uptrend channels that were in place for the majority of countries. The only countries that have managed to somewhat hold onto long-term uptrends are China, Hong Kong, Norway, and Switzerland. For a handful of countries like Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain, their equity markets fell to around the lowest levels of the past decade. In terms of bounce backs, every country has rallied off of its lows, but Mexico is up the least at just 2.8%. So far the bounce backs hardly register on the long-term price charts for most countries, but there are some where the bounce has moved price back inside the long-term uptrend channel that had been in place prior to the crash. Norway, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and Taiwan are examples of countries where this is the case. Two Months Without an Increase in Prices at the Pump Wed, Apr 22, 2020 While consumers staying home have not had much of a chance to enjoy the decline in gas prices, the decline has been relentless. The last time the national average price of a gallon of gas increased was on February 22nd. That's 59 days ago. The chart below shows historical streaks where the national average price of gasoline did not show a day/day increase. At 59 days, the current streak is the fourth-longest on record dating back to 2005. The longest streak ended at 123 days in January 2015, while the next two ended at just under 90 days. With the current streak of days without an increase at just 59 days, it sure doesn't seem extreme relative to those other periods. So what gives? Even though the current streak is much shorter than the three longest streaks, this one is perhaps even more extreme given the time of year when it is occurring. Looking at the chart above, each of the three longest streaks on record all ended in December and January. The blue line in the chart below shows the seasonality of gas prices throughout the year, and the weakest time of year is typically from the beginning of December through year-end. Therefore, it shouldn't be too much of a surprise that the three longest streaks on record took place during that time of year. The current streak, however, has occurred during a time of year where prices at the pump are normally at their strongest. In fact, this is the first time since 2005 that gas prices have ever been down on a YTD basis at this time of year. In other words, this current streak of declines is rather extraordinary.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 4.24.20- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 4.24.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
Stock Market Analysis Video for April 24th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.26.20 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (4/27) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (4/27-5/1) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics May 2020 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 4.27.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 4.27.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.28.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.28.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.29.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.29.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.30.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.30.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 5.1.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 5.1.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($AMZN $TSLA $MSFT $AAPL $AMD $BA $FB $LUV $MMM $GE $AAL $UPS $TWTR $PFE $CBSH $PEP $MA $GOOGL $GILD $SBUX $UAL $V $SPOT $MCD $XOM $F $CAT $TDOC $AMAT $AWI $CHKP $MRK $ABBV $WHR $QCOM $BP $KHC $CLX $HAS $ANTM $NOK $CMS $CNX $APRN) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning April 27th, 2020 <-- click there to view!
UPS could get a bump with ER this week. My buddies I used to work with all say they have been really busy. Usually this time of year we slow way down here.
Looks like big money is scaling out of safety corona stay at home stocks and will start buying stocks like SEAS / Sea World, SIX / Six flags, MGM / Resorts Int., UAL / United Airlines etc. all coming back on line soon, not at full capacity but a 180 deg. change since the lock downs. I just want to follow the big money and pick up what crumbs they might leave behind.
Yeah SEAS hit my radar in late March when volume started really heating up. It's got a really nice looking bottoming pattern as well.
You got that right young man, with a confirmed breakout with some high volume and she could definitely be a runner. On watch. Also MGM on watch for the same.
Big money has moved back into crypto last month or so after the selloff. If your into volatility there are a few options over the counter like gbtc, ethe, gdlc, btsc. Grayacale announced they had the highest ever influx of cash from investors this past q of $450mil+. People want in
Anyone know of a good, long term, oil play? I was thinking USO, but then I started wondering because it's an etf if it might actually become worthless. So while I still might try USO, I'm looking for other options. Mostly as a hedge against coming inflation.
