NOT going to start up with the virus postings. I have moved on from the virus, virus, virus, "stuff". WHATEVER..... BUT, this being a weekend, I find this little article interesting from a historical perspective. I was 18-20 years old when the events in this article were happening. Like may mentioned in the article I have NO MEMORY of this pandemic that caused 100,000 deaths in the USA at a time when the population of the country was 200MILLION. Woodstock Occurred in the Middle of a Pandemic https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic/ "In my lifetime, there was another deadly flu epidemic in the United States. The flu spread from Hong Kong to the United States, arriving December 1968 and peaking a year later. It ultimately killed 100,000 people in the U.S., mostly over the age of 65, and one million worldwide. Lifespan in the US in those days was 70 whereas it is 78 today. Population was 200 million as compared with 328 million today. If it would be possible to extrapolate the death data based on population and demographics, we might be looking at a quarter million deaths today from this virus. So in terms of lethality, it was as deadly and scary as COVID-19 if not more so, though we shall have to wait to see. “In 1968,” says Nathaniel L. Moir in National Interest, “the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the U.S. than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.” And this happened in the lifetimes of every American over 52 years of age. I was 5 years old and have no memory of this at all. My mother vaguely remembers being careful and washing surfaces, and encouraging her mom and dad to be careful. Otherwise, it’s mostly forgotten today. Why is that? Nothing closed. Schools stayed open. All businesses did too. You could go to the movies. You could go to bars and restaurants. John Fund has a friend who reports having attended a Grateful Dead concert. In fact, people have no memory or awareness that the famous Woodstock concert of August 1969 actually occurred during a deadly American flu pandemic that only peaked six months later. Stock markets didn’t crash. Congress passed no legislation. The Federal Reserve did nothing. Not a single governor acted to enforce social distancing, curve flattening (even though hundreds of thousands of people were hospitalized), or banning of crowds. No mothers were arrested for taking their kids to other homes. No surfers were arrested. No daycares were shut even though there were more infant deaths with this virus than the one we are experiencing now. There were no suicides, no unemployment, no drug overdoses. Media covered the pandemic but it never became a big issue. As Bojan Pancevski in the Wall Street Journal points out, “In 1968-70, news outlets devoted cursory attention to the virus while training their lenses on other events such as the moon landing and the Vietnam War, and the cultural upheaval of the civil-rights movements, student protests and the sexual revolution.” The only actions governments took was to collect data, watch and wait, encourage testing and vaccines, and so on. The medical community took the primary responsibility for disease mitigation, as one might expect. It was widely assumed that diseases require medical not political responses. It’s not as if we had governments unwilling to intervene in other matters. We had the Vietnam War, social welfare, public housing, urban renewal, and the rise of Medicare and Medicaid. We had a president swearing to cure all poverty, illiteracy, and disease. Government was as intrusive as it had ever been in history. But for some reason, there was no thought given to shutdowns. Which raises the question: why was this different? We will be trying to figure this one out for decades. Was the difference that we have mass media invading our lives with endless notifications blowing up in our pockets? Was there some change in philosophy such that we now think politics is responsible for all existing aspects of life? Was there a political element here in that the media blew this wildly out of proportion as revenge against Trump and his deplorables? Or did our excessive adoration of predictive modelling get out of control to the point that we let a physicist with ridiculous models frighten the world’s governments into violating the human rights of billions of people? Maybe all of these were factors. Or maybe there is something darker and nefarious at work, as the conspiracy theorists would have it. Regardless, they all have some explaining to do. By way of personal recollection, my own mother and father were part of a generation that believed they had developed sophisticated views of viruses. They understood that less vulnerable people getting them not only strengthened immune systems but contributed to disease mitigation by reaching “herd immunity.” They had a whole protocol to make a child feel better about being sick. I got a “sick toy,” unlimited ice cream, Vicks rub on my chest, a humidifier in my room, and so on. They would constantly congratulate me on building immunity. They did their very best to be happy about my viruses, while doing their best to get me through them. If we used government lockdowns then like we use them now, Woodstock (which changed music forever and still resonates today) would never have occurred. How much prosperity, culture, tech, etc. are losing in this calamity? What happened between then and now? Was there some kind of lost knowledge, as happened with scurvy, when we once had sophistication and then the knowledge was lost and had to be re-found? For COVID-19, we reverted to medieval-style understandings and policies, even in the 21st century. It’s all very strange. The contrast between 1968 and 2020 couldn’t be more striking. They were smart. We are idiots. Or at least our governments are." MY COMMENT As an "OLD PERSON" it DOES seem like we have become a country of weenies and cry-babies. BUT.....isnt that the way it always is......the old people talking about walking 20 miles to school in the snow, etc, etc. So....I really......."I GOT NOTHIN".
Siting here on the computer with "Barron's Roundtable" on in the background. Heard this little BLURB. NOT that it means anything, but found it interesting: March 2020.....the WORST month in the markets since the GREAT DEPRESSION April 2020......the BEST month in the markets in 33 years. NOT that it means anything at all, other than an interesting statistic. We have NOW moved on to MAY. Looking forward to Monday and the THRILL of the FINAL BIG WEEK of earnings. Fully invested for the long term as usual.
April has been too-good-to-be-true for us. I think virus discussion is still the most on-point discussion in investing. If the virus turns out to have been over-blown and a recovery can happen more quickly than some folks anticipate, that will have a more profound positive impact on the markets than any other factor. If the virus continues to disable the economy and things drag on for many months, as some folks anticipate, that will also have a more profound impact on the markets than any other factor, but it will be negative. I think the virus is more important than the election and I believe the election will be impactful. I expect that just having an election is going to be a negative influence on the markets toward the end of this year. If your model turns out to be mostly how it goes, a trader could buy the current dip, sell at the pre-election peak in about August, and buy again at the end of October. I believe the market will recover, no matter who wins the election, as it always does.
NOT related to the post above......BUT... I am CALLING the end of this virus BALONEY. IT IS OVER. Sure people will still get it and some will die....but...people are in full scale revolt and cival disobedience. The MEDIA will not report on it, but businesses all over New York City and State are just opening and ignoring the politicians. The SAME thing is happening all over the country as politicians are being ignored. MOST major companies and manufacturers are going back to work. UBER is back. COSTCO is going back to normal hours. STARBUCKS is reopening. AND on, and on, and on, and on. The FLOOD of stories PUSHING........DOOM&GLOOM, FEAR&PANIC.......and emotion WILL continue for a month or so BUT those stories have already lost all their ZING. People have now been released or are in revolt and dont care anymore. The MEDIA has EXHAUSTED the entire country and......NO ONE CARES anymore. Fifteen more States are reopening today, etc, etc, etc. Europe is reopening, Italy is reopening. Yes, I know......I am usually ahead of the curve by a few weeks ....BUT.....it is CLEAR that people are just not going to take it anymore. As to investing, economics, etc.......We start from where we are right now. The retesting of the lows NEVER happened during this round of earnings. It is a waste of time and actually a JOKE to blame every market low from this point on over the next year on the........(gasp).....virus. NO, any low going forward over the next six months will be based on whatever the economic conditions are at that time. YES....from an economic standpoint or investing standpoint....we have lost a lot and there is much short term damage...BUT...the OBVIOUS direction from this extreme bottom of the past month or two is CLEARLY....UP. ESPECIALLY for LONG TERM investors.....the obvious direction of the markets and economy is massively.....UP. FROM this point on.....the VAST MAJORITY of virus reporting and stories in the MEDIA will simply be PUSHING their own political agenda. We ate in a local restaurant again yesterday. It was FULL. Waiters wore masks, menus were paper, and tables were every other table....but at 1:00PM there were at least 15-20 tables of customers spending money and supporting the economy and workers. For those that will still COWER in their house in fear.........that is fine...that is YOUR choice. BUT...the rest of us will simply move on.
THIS.....is the sort of thinking that long term investors should be using at the moment: Warren Buffett vows that US will recover from coronavirus https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/02/investing/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-meeting/index.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "New York (CNN Business)Warren Buffett said he remains convinced that nothing can stop the United States and that America will recover from the Covid-19 pandemic -- just as it did following other crises of the past century. But the billionaire Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) CEO disclosed Saturday that Berkshire Hathaway recently sold its entire stakes in the four airline stocks that company had owned, calling it a mistake to invest in the industry. Berkshire Hathaway revealed in early April that it trimmed its stakes in Delta (DAL) and Southwest (LUV). But in response to a question from a Berkshire shareholder, Buffett said the company sold all its shares in Delta and Southwest, as well as United (UAL) and American (AAL), because he believes it will take years for air travel to recover. Buffett, who has long been bullish on the US economy and stock market, spoke at the company's annual shareholder meeting from a virtually empty CHI Health Center in Omaha Saturday. The remarks were webcast by Yahoo Finance. The shareholder meeting comes on the same day the company released its first quarter results, a nearly $50 billion loss, the worst in the company's history. Buffett began the meeting by discussing prior times of hardship he's lived through, such as the Cuban missile crisis and the Cold War, the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the Great Recession of 2008. Every time it seemed that times were bleak, he said, America eventually recovered. The Oracle of Omaha conceded that the coronavirus outbreak is a vastly different challenge than those other national emergencies. But Buffett remains upbeat. "This country, in 231 years, has exceeded anybody's dreams." Buffett said. Buffett, who backed Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, also said he would not talk about politics at the meeting. But he praised Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, for his handling of the Covid-19 outbreak. Bullish but cautious Buffett did not share any thoughts on when he thinks the US will recover from the worst of the pandemic. But he is convinced that better days lie ahead, and he urged investors to be cautious. "You can bet on America but you're going to have to be careful about how you bet," he said. "Markets can do anything." He also stressed that investors need to stay in stocks over a long period of time since they will continue to be better bets than bonds. "America's tailwind is not exhausted," Buffett said. Buffett also lavished praise on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for the actions the central bank has taken since March -- cutting rates to zero and launching several lending programs for consumers, businesses and municipalities -- to help support the economy. Buffett conceded that these moves could eventually lead to problems down the road because of the swelling of the size of the Fed's balance sheet. But the Fed had no alternative, he said. "We do know the consequences of doing nothing," Buffett said, adding that Powell's actions are the equivalent of "whatever it takes, squared." That's a reference to a 2012 quote by former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi, about the ECB's moves to do everything it could to prop up the eurozone during the that year's sovereign debt crisis. An empty arena Tens of thousands of people typically descend on the Nebraska city for the Berkshire shareholder meeting in order to listen to Buffett and vice chairman Charlie Munger discuss the market and economy. But Munger, who is 96, was not at the meeting Saturday. Buffett was joined on stage by another Berkshire vice chairman, Greg Abel. Buffett said Saturday that Munger is in fine shape and joked that he is now even using Zoom (ZM). He vowed that Munger would be back at the next meeting in 2021. Abel, who runs Berkshire's non-energy businesses, is one of two executives viewed as likely successors to Buffett, who turns 90 in August, as CEO. The other is Ajit Jain, the vice chairman who runs the insurance operations. Berkshire Hathaway's first quarter losses were mainly due to the significant drop in value of Berkshire's big investments, such as Kraft Heinz (KHC), Bank of America (BAC), Apple (AAPL) and Coca-Cola (KO), the company said. But many of its consumer businesses, which include Dairy Queen, Fruit of the Loom, Duracell and Benjamin Moore paints, have been hit hard by the Covid-19 outbreak. Buffett has also talked frequently over the past few years about his desire to make another big acquisition, and he certainly has the money to do so. As of the end of the first quarter Berkshire Hathaway had $137.3 billion in cash on its balance sheet. His last major purchase was the 2015 deal for aerospace equipment company Precision Castparts. Buffett had been concerned that prices were too high for many takeover targets. Berkshire turned down a chance to buy jeweler Tiffany earlier this year. LVMH (LVMHF) wound up buying it instead. Berkshire also lost a bidding war for software and hardware distributor Tech Data to private equity firm Apollo Global Management (APO). MY COMMENT ABSOLUTELY. AND....I do like the selling of ALL the airline stocks. Buffett is not afraid to buy or sell DECISIVELY. As I did a while back with my BOEING stock, thus avoiding most of the very severe losses in the stock since. EVEN as a long term investor, you HAVE to be able and willing to sell a holding when it is in the early stages of NOT PERFORMING. I will sell a position in an instant if necessary. If I see some significant issue or a stock is not performing as expected.......IT IS GONE. It is EASY to buy a stock BUT many long term investors have trouble selling, especially a long time holding. I will note, that regarding a sell decision....it is sometimes a fine line between a company that is gong down versus a short term dip. A lot of investors have a big problem making the decision to sell. The key is unemotional, very clinical, vision. You do it and move on. Like some of the flailing around that I did early in this virus situation in some of my accounts. You do what you think is right and MOVE ON. I NEVER invest by HINDSIGHT. EVERYTHING.......in investing is in the moment or in the future. NOTHING........is in the rear view mirror.
OK......a good day because of the close. BOTH the DOW and SP500 were down most of the day and fought their way back to close positive. I was in the GREEN today.......YES, a good day. Beat the SP500 today by .37%. ALSO a good thing. I consider today a very positive day with the way the markets REFUSED to close down. A good sign of strength. We are NOW starting to hit green days just as often as red days.....if not......more green than red. Another very good indication that we are at the end of the IMMEDIATE, SHORT TERM, impact of the virus on the markets. We should see much more NORMAL markets over the medium term....the next 2-8 months. BUT.....normal still means that the markets day to day and week to week will be very erratic and we will see the usual corrections over time. ALL in all we are moving back to a normal, long term investing situation.
Amen. This virus was and still IS such a political hungry divider. No other health crisis in the history of time has created such hate and anger towards each other like this one. Imagine if this virus ACTUALLY WAS anything close to what the science/politicians claims it to be. Imagine if HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS...... MILLIONS.. of people died from this... on a daily/weekly basis... do you even think FOR A SECOND that you’d have to ORDER people to stay home? Forget it! NO ONE would’ve come out even if you had ordered them to at gun point. I know I wouldn’t have and I’m probably the virus’ biggest non believer! It’s sad that people have to politicize this to such EXTREME levels! If I walk out without a mask I’m a republican If I elbow shake someone I’m a Democrat If I open my business I’m a selfish American If I pray for the world, instead of just this country I’m a liberal If I pray at all I’m a conservative. The examples I illustrate to you above are NOT thoughts, but ACTUAL real life interactions I had with people in REAL LIFE (NOT the internet), at work, at the bank, in the post office, at the park. SO MUCH BIGOTRY AND PREJUDICE it’s STUNNING!
As I mentioned in this thread earlier last week, I was very shocked to find out that my businesses were showing STRONG numbers during this crisis. Today, I received an email from Mark Salzberg, chairman of NGC, PMG & CGC which pretty much spoke of a similar strong economy as it relates to his business https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/8239 A Letter from Mark Salzberg Posted on 5/4/2020 The CCG companies are committed to serving the collecting community with expertise and integrity while ensuring the safety and well-being of our employees. My Friends and Colleagues in the Collectibles Community, I have been in the collectibles industry for more than 40 years. In that time, I have seen many market peaks and valleys — periods of prosperity as well as periods of great difficulty. In fact, I became a coin dealer during the boomtimes of the late 1970s, only to experience the great crash of 1980 and the ensuing multi-year slump. During each of these challenges, I have learned that there are opportunities for those who can adapt quickly. This crisis is no different. The cancellation of shows and comic cons as well as the closure of shops have dramatically and abruptly changed the global collectibles industry. Even in the Internet Age, many collectibles dealers have made their living through face-to-face interactions with other dealers and the public. With that dynamic gone for the foreseeable future, their survival — and the survival of our markets overall — rests on being able to sell collectibles online to a broad base of buyers around the world. Online sales of collectibles have long been facilitated by third-party authentication, grading and encapsulation. Now, expert and impartial certification services are even more important, providing critical confidence and liquidity to the collectibles markets. Third-party certification from NGC, PMG, CGC, ASG and CAG makes it easier for collectibles to be bought and sold online, even sight-unseen, because people understand and trust the descriptions and grades of the collectibles. These transactions are also safer because the collectibles are backed by comprehensive guarantees and protected by state-of-the-art holders. Recognizing that our services are essential to the global collectibles markets, we took numerous preventative measures upon seeing the outbreak of the coronavirus in China, where we have a large presence. As a result of our proactive efforts, all of our worldwide locations have been able to remain open and provide uninterrupted services to collectors, dealers, auction houses, museums, banks and others. Our Shanghai office was our first location to face the coronavirus outbreak. We quickly responded by increasing cleaning and disinfecting of workspaces, distributing masks and sanitizers to all employees, discontinuing the use of any shared devices such as coffeemakers and requiring that all employees have their temperature taken before entering our facility. As we saw the coronavirus spread rapidly in Asia, we expanded these preventive efforts to our other offices. We instructed all employees who could work from home to do so, even before governments implemented such guidelines. We expanded flex and sick time, stopped in-person pick-ups and drop-offs from customers and took other steps to improve safety. For more than seven weeks, only the employees who are absolutely required to work inside of our facilities have been there, and they are able to spread out to safe distances of six feet or more as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Daily distribution of masks and gloves, frequent cleaning and other safety protocols continue to provide additional protection for our employees. Amid this new normal, the collectibles markets are showing incredible signs of resiliency. Coins certified by NGC, notes certified by PMG and comics certified by CGC have achieved very strong prices at recent auctions, and many dealers are reporting brisk sales. For example, during the week of March 16 — the peak of stock market volatility in the US — Stack’s Bowers Galleries sold the PMG-certified D. Brent Pogue US currency collection for more than $9 million. An incredible 27 PMG-certified notes achieved prices of at least $100,000, including an 1863 $100 “Spread Eagle” Legal Tender note graded PMG 65 Gem Uncirculated EPQ that sold for $432,000. The 1863 $100 “Spread Eagle” Legal Tender note graded PMG 65 Gem Uncirculated EPQ that realized $432,000. Click image to enlarge. Less than two weeks ago, we saw amazing results in several sales by Heritage Auctions. On April 23, Heritage sold an 1858 Eagle graded NGC PF 64 Ultra Cameo for a jaw-dropping $480,000. The next day, Heritage’s world and ancient coins sale was topped by a 1644 England Triple Unite graded NGC MS 62+ that sold for an incredible $360,000, while its paper money auction was led by two 1934-dated PMG-certified notes that realized more than $100,000 each. The 1858 Eagle graded NGC PF 64 Ultra Cameo that realized $480,000 in the Heritage Auctions sale and the England 1644 Triple Unite graded NGC MS 62+ that realized $360,000. Click images to enlarge. Heritage Auctions also just held a major comic book sale that ended May 3. The top lot was an Amazing Fantasy #15 (Marvel Comics, 8/62) graded CGC 8.0 that realized $180,000 — nearly double its Overstreet value. The Amazing Fantasy #15 (Marvel Comics, 8/62) graded CGC 8.0 that realized $180,000. Click images to enlarge. Retailers who sell collectibles on TV and over the phone also report substantial business in the current climate. With many employees working from home and reduced rates for advertising, their costs are down, and they are able to more quickly adjust to meet demand. All of this is not to say that we are immune to the economic downturn experienced by many companies and industries. Mints around the world have temporarily stopped issuing collectible coins and Diamond Comic Distributors has temporarily stopped distributing new comic book titles. While we have seen submissions decline in the US and Europe over the last seven weeks, we are confident that this situation will be short-lived. Indeed, our mainland China business recovered quickly and is actually up compared to the same period last year. The encouraging results from online, TV and phone sales reveal that interest in collectibles is robust. Gold is approaching record highs and there is extraordinary demand for bullion — the premiums paid for physical gold and silver as compared to spot metal prices are the highest I have seen in my career. Meanwhile, seemingly limitless amounts of paper money are being printed in the US and elsewhere, while stock markets have shown nerve-wracking volatility. Not surprisingly, we are now seeing a dramatic shift in asset allocations that will only accelerate in the coming months. Investors, who have become much more wary of the stock market and currencies, will shift a greater portion of their assets to collectibles, which continue to become increasingly liquid and fungible as a result of third-party certification. When mints, distributors and shops begin to reopen, we expect to see a sharp increase in both collectibles sales and submissions as the current logistical and commercial impediments are lifted. Although it may be some time before shows resume, I am excited to announce that we have partnered with Heritage Auctions to serve this important role for the dealers whose businesses depend on these events. Soon we will offer Invitationals where the country's most active dealers can trade collectibles and submit them for on-site grading. We will work closely with Heritage to ensure that these Invitationals are safe for all participants. Currently, we plan to hold six events for coins in the next year, and we are formulating our plans for paper money and comic book events. I am thrilled that we are working together to provide additional liquidity and capital for our dealers. Look out for more details soon. While there remains a great deal of uncertainty about the coronavirus and its economic impacts, I am extremely confident that the collectibles markets will see an extraordinary period of expansion in the near future. Dealers who can deliver convenience, safety and liquidity through a robust online presence will not just survive but thrive in the new normal. Now and always, the CCG companies are here to help with expert, impartial and trusted certification services. No matter how far apart we may be, know that we are here for you. I hope that it is not too long before we see each other at a show again. Until then, please stay safe. All my best, Mark Salzberg Chairman P.S. For updates on our operations, please check here. NGC, PMG and CGC Customer Service Representatives are working from home and available to help. The fastest way to reach NGC, PMG and CGC Customer Service is to email [email protected], [email protected] or [email protected].
LOVE the collectable stuff above. I agree. People I know in one of my areas of collecting.....certain......Impressionistic oil paintings from about 1885 to 1950......seem to be buying very actively. And...it is not due to prices being down. They are as strong as ever before. It seems like with everyone being stuck at home, or at least not able to attend auctions, or exhibitions, or conferences has INCREASED activity in the market. One guy I know was extremely worried about the small business part of the economy tanking things very badly......he is a long time Vice President for a brokerage........yet he bought three paintings over the past four months. I know that ......"I"......have been doing a lot of research into provenance and history of one painting that we own during this down time. It has cost me some cash to buy obscure art reference books to use in the effort. (about $800) At least it is paying off. I was able to identify the name of a painting that was previously unknown. I knew the artist, year it was painted 1927, and a little bit of provenance back to the year 2000 and that is all. By magnifying photos and materials from the conservation of the painting....I discovered some cursive writing in a hard to see area on the back of the painting that is the title of the painting. Once I had that I was able to identify an exhibition that it was in, in 1929. This info takes this painting to a new level. I knew it was a significant painting for the artist and it was his favorite exhibition size, 30 x 40....but no one had any information on this painting prior to 2000. So I am PSYCHED and am now PUSHING HARD to try to identify any other exhibition or museum history for the painting. The only problem is now I need access to museums and University library systems to follow up on some of my leads since all the materials I need were generated between 1927 and about 1935 and are hard to find. On the music front......all shows are STILL canceled. But, I have rehearsals this week with two bands and a live radio show on Saturday. I expect that in my general area shows will start back up....perhaps.....the 18th or 19th of this month. Till things start to reopen, it is impossible to know what places will simply never reopen and go belly up. Even when places do reopen, some shows might still be canceled. At least we are close to starting back up. I am sure anyone with any sort of hobby or interest has had plenty of time to apply to it during the past month or two. One way to KEEP your SANITY. OR....in my case....lose my SANITY getting down into obscure research. Thank God it paid off. BUT....my wife is about to kill me for spending hours and hours every day on this research. Stay safe everyone.....don't go too CRAZY out there with the reopening. BUT....get out there and support small and local business, and the economy.
For those interested in ......virus history.....in the USA here is another example. In post 1221 above I point out the 1968/1970 Hong Kong Flu that killed 100,000 in the USA out of a population of 200MIL. HERE is another example the Asian Flu in 1957 that KILLED 116,000 AMERICANS out of a population of 172MIL. Of course, being HUMANS, we are so EGOCENTRIC, that we think EVERYTHING happening in our lifetime is the worst, greatest, etc, etc ever. NO.....we just never remember the past. Of course in 1968 and 1957 there was ZERO shutdown of anything. Society and civilization carried on as usual. The current....WEENIE GENERATION.......of people alive is the first time in our history that we have allowed panic and government beurocrats to control and shut down the country for a FLU. In both these examples.....just like now.....those killed were mostly elderly with pre-existing conditions. Elvis Was King, Ike Was President, and 116,000 Americans Died in a Pandemic https://www.aier.org/article/elvis-...dent-and-116000-americans-died-in-a-pandemic/ The year was 1957. Elvis’s new movie “Jailhouse Rock” was packing the theaters. The last episode of “I Love Lucy” aired on television. The show “West Side Story” held tryouts in Washington, D.C., and opened on Broadway in September. Ford’s new car the Edsel rolled off the assembly line. The Cold War with Russia was on and “In God We Trust” appeared on U.S. currency. The first Toys R Us store opened. Also that year, the so-called Asian Flu killed 116,000 Americans. Here is the full summary from the Centers for Disease Control: In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States. Like the current pandemic, there was a demographic pattern to the deaths. It hit the elderly population with heart and lung disease. In a frightening twist, the virus could also be fatal for pregnant women. The infection rate was probably even higher than the Spanish flu of 1918 (675,000 Americans died from this), but this lowered the overall case fatality rate to 0.67%. A vaccine became available in late 1957 but was not widely distributed. The population of the U.S. at the time was 172 million, which is a little more than half of the current population. Life expectancy was 69 as versus 78 today. Even with shorter lives, it was a healthier population with lower rates of obesity. To extrapolate the data to a counterfactual, we can conclude that this virus was more wicked than COVID-19 thus far. What’s remarkable when we look back at this year, nothing was shut down. Restaurants, schools, theaters, sporting events, travel – everything continued without interruption. Without a 24-hour news cycle with thousands of news agencies and a billion websites hungry for traffic, mostly people paid no attention other than to keep basic hygiene. It was covered in the press as a medical problem. The notion that there was a political solution never occurred to anyone. Again, this was a very serious flu, and it persisted for 10 years until it mutated to become the Hong Kong flu of 1968. The New York Times had some but not much coverage. On September 18, 1957, an editorial counseled: “Let us all keep a cool head about Asian influenza as the statistics on the spread and the virulence of the disease begin to accumulate. For one thing, let us be sure that the 1957 type of A influenza virus is innocuous, as early returns show, and that antibiotics can indeed control the complications that may develop.” The mystery of why today vast numbers of governments around the world (but not all) have crushed economies, locked people under house arrest, wrecked business, spread despair, disregarded basic freedoms and rights will require years if not decades to sort out. Is it the news cycle that is creating mass hysteria? Political ambition and arrogance? A decline in philosophical regard for freedom as the best system for dealing with crises? Most likely, the ultimate answer will look roughly like what historians say about the Great War (WWI): it was a perfect storm that created a calamity that no one intended at the outset. For staying calm and treating the terrible Asian flu of 1957 as a medical problem to address with medical intelligence, rather than as an excuse to unleash Medieval-style brutality, this first postwar generation deserves our respect and admiration. MY COMMENT What is very....INTERESTING......is that NONE of this info is ever reported in the current..........situation......by our HEROIC MEDIA. Of course, what do you expect....journalism has deteriorated to the point that supermarket tabloids like the National Inquirer....which was a joke when I was younger in the 1950's, 1960's, 1970's, 1980's and 1990's.....now exposes and reports MAJOR stories IGNORED by the "REAL" media.
GREAT open today with the DOW up 345 at the moment. HOPE it builds through the day. BUT...not expecting anything,
WXYZ Yes. Research is key when it comes to assessing value for rare collectibles and art. You will always be rewarded handsomely when acquiring a rare piece at a normal price while applying study to its origins. Always. As far as the music business is concerned. A lot of our bands and djs in our buildings started doing live stream shows from their rooms. And it looks to be like a new trend now since all concert venues including bars and clubs are closed. Some stream through Instagram and some through Facebook. Great way to keep the momentum going and making people happy. Great open today, I guess this will be the new norm for awhile 1 day green 2 days red, 2 days green 1 day red. I’ve stopped buying for now and even if earning reports further dip my positions I’m just staying the course till there’s more certainty with the economy
This is BIG news for many young or other investors. SCHWAB....is going to start offering the ability for customers to buy a "SLICE" of SP500 stocks for as low as $5. What a great program...... HERE is the info: https://www.schwab.com/stock-slices
Fractional shares. That's exactly what drove me to open an M1 Finance account last summer. I've been with TD Ameritrade since 2010 but the ability to buy fractional shares of companies like Amazon, Google, etc. was extremely appealing. Amazon and Google make up over 50% of my portfolio in my M1 account. On the 5th of every month, an automatic direct deposit gets divvied up to my pie selections. Great idea for a young investor to get their feet wet.
Yes Weight333 It is a great idea. AND now...people can have that ability to do fractional ownership in their accounts at one of the most ICONIC old time discount brokerages around. I would pick Schwab over any of the new APP based, unproven, brokerage start-up companies, any time. When it comes to my money I want a brokerage that has been around a long time, is proven, has offices all over, has free trades, has tens of millions of customers, has customer support for every imaginable financial product, has MASSIVE phone-online-in person support, etc, etc, and is not just some young flash in the pan trying to get the Millennial business. That is why I do have all accounts at Schwab. I would put Vanguard and Fidelity in the same category......but I dont know if they offer fractional shares. If not, I am sure they ALL will very soon.
EXTREMELY TINY........but.....in the green today, thanks to the tech names in my portfolio model. AND.....beat the SP500 again today with my account at +.30% and the SP500 being at (-.70%). So a slight win in a pretty go nowhere day. At least we seem to have broken away from the wild and crazy swings UP and DOWN......at least for now. Only a couple of days left for the GUTS of earnings. I am surprised that we have not seen more of a reaction to earnings impacted by the business shutdown and the virus. Obviously, by the time we hit earnings EVERYTHING was so expected and discounted....the impact on the markets was not there.
I saw that TomB16 was talking about Index Funds in another thread today......and....knowing that he was a fan of Warren Buffett.......here is a little article for him: Buffett: 'I would disagree quite violently' with notion that passive investing is dead https://money.yahoo.com/buffett-i-w...that-passive-investing-is-dead-202620430.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Despite the stock market volatility in recent months set off by the coronavirus pandemic, the Oracle of Omaha declared passive investing isn’t dead. Warren Buffett stood by his defense of index funds, which are mutual funds that track market indices, such as the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. These investments aren’t actively traded by a wealth manager. “If you say the day of investing in America is over, I would disagree quite violently,” Buffett said during the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders meeting. “There’s something special about index funds.” He remains so passionate about index funds that it’s a key component of his estate planning. “Well I can tell you I haven’t changed my will and it directs that my widow would have 90% of the funds in index funds,” Buffett said. “I think it’s better advice than people are generally getting from people that are paid a lot to give advice.” ‘I know which side is going to win over time’" Buffett extolled the low fees offered by index funds along with their profitable performance. He also alluded to some financial advisors who focus more on selling investments than seeing them grow. “One side has high fees and they think they can pick out stocks and the other side has low fees,” Buffett said. “I know which side is going to win over time.” While he said not all advisors don’t know what they’re doing, he cautioned investors to understand that many are sales-driven. “You’re dealing with an industry where it pays to be a great salesperson,” Buffett said. “There’s a lot more money in selling than in actually managing, if you look into the essence of investment management.” " MY COMMENT For the average person that does not have the time or the desire to manage their own investments it is hard to beat the SP500 Index as an INVEST AND FORGET IT investment over a lifetime.
The USUAL....lately......good open today. As usual....we will see if this holds, fades, or grows into the close. Here is a........down in the weeds.......article on the topic of bonds versus stocks. Might be some good info for those that are trying to consider investing in bonds versus stocks. I have included the reference footnotes in this post. Stocks for the Long Run? While stocks’ trailing bonds over long stretches is unusual, it isn’t unprecedented—or a sign stocks can’t meet investors’ long-term growth needs anymore. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/stocks-for-the-long-run (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US Treasury yields have plunged this year, lifting most bond prices during stocks’ bear market. One byproduct: Various bonds’ total returns now outpace US stocks’ since 2000’s start. For example, 10-year Treasurys have returned 213.7% compared to the S&P 500’s 187.1%. We have noticed some news commentators seizing on this, arguing it means stocks no longer compensate investors for their higher volatility via higher returns. In our view, though, bonds’ outperformance over the last two decades doesn’t alter stocks’ superiority for investors needing long-term growth. It seems popular among articles touting bonds’ 20-year edge to note that long-term US government bonds have outperformed in 26% of 20-year rolling periods ending in 2000 or later.[ii] This is a fair point to a limited extent, but we see a problem: It uses monthly rolling periods. Since bonds’ historical stretches of outperformance tend to cluster around bear markets, any figure using monthly rolling calculations could easily be double counting (or more)—overstating the phenomenon’s frequency. We think it is clearer to use rolling annual returns, which better isolate bonds’ leadership stretches. On that basis, there have been two previous annual 20-year stretches of 10-year Treasury outperformance—1929 – 1948 and 1989 – 2008.[iii] As Exhibit 1 highlights, neither prevented big subsequent stock market gains. In the latter case, the most recent bull market—history’s longest—kicked off the following year. Investors who concluded stocks’ historically higher returns wouldn’t resume might have missed out. Cumulative US stock returns have also far outpaced 10-year Treasurys from 2009 onwards, current bear market included—299.4% to 52.2%.[iv] Exhibit 1: US Stocks’ Big Gains After 20-Year Stretches of Trailing Bonds Source: Global Financial Data, as of 5/5/2020. S&P 500 Total Return Index, 12/31/1948 – 12/31/1968 and 12/31/2008 – 12/31/2018. Cumulative returns over the periods shown. This doesn’t mean stock returns in the coming years will necessarily look like the above. But it does highlight how timing influences rolling returns. US stocks endured bear markets near the start and end of both previous stretches of bond outperformance. Likewise, the 20-year period that inspired pundits’ current take began in April 2000—just after the dot-com bubble popped—and ends in 2020’s downturn. In our view, this shows how timing quirks—not fundamental shifts in the relationship between stocks and bonds—best explain the rare cases of 20-year bond outperformance. Moreover, even in the two other annual 20-year periods when bonds outperformed, it was by only a little—90.9% to 74.1% in 1929 – 1948 and 423.4% to 404.3% from 1989 – 2008.[v] Meanwhile, as Exhibit 2 shows, stocks’ cumulative returns over all annual 20-year periods (which include bear markets and lagging stretches versus bonds) are far higher than 10-year Treasury bonds’ on average—even when treating stocks’ year-to-date drop as 2020’s full-year return. The reason: Bull markets follow bear markets, and stocks usually clock dozens or more all-time highs between bear markets. Exhibit 2: US Stocks’ Long-Term Returns Easily Outpace Bonds Source: Global Financial Data, as of 5/5/2020. 20-year rolling average annual returns for the USA 10-Year Government Bond Total Return Index and the S&P 500 Total Return Index, 12/31/1925 – 12/31/2019 and cumulative returns for both indexes, 12/31/2019 – 5/4/2020. For investors needing long-term growth, we think the totality of this history should matter more than three contrary data points. Past performance isn’t predictive, but the full history shows the probability of superior returns is much higher with stocks. Looking ahead, we think the factors underlying bond outperformance since 2000’s start may not persist. For one, it is a relatively new development. Heading into 2020, the S&P 500 was leading 10-year Treasurys over the prior 20 years, 224.2% to 178.1%.[vi] 10-year Treasury and US stock returns’ huge divergence year to date—12.8% versus -11.5%, respectively—has helped generate the bond outperformance headlines note.[vii] 10-year Treasurys’ big year-to-date gains came as their yields declined to present record lows (currently 0.7%).[viii] This reflects the “flight to quality” common in a stock bear market, when negative volatility typically leads jittery investors to bid up perceived “safe haven” assets, especially Treasurys. When the panic subsides, bond prices typically retreat some. We wouldn’t be surprised to see this materialize in this bear market’s aftermath, too. Hence, drawing big, forward-looking conclusions from short-term volatility in stocks and bonds seems like an error to us. A second force underlying bonds’ post-2000 outperformance is the longer-term decline in bond yields. 10-year Treasury yields topped out above 15% in September 1981 and have zigged and zagged downwards since.[ix] In February 2000, the 10-year yield at issuance was 6.5%.[x] While we don’t expect a surge, we also don’t think yields have much further to fall now—particularly if economic reopening persists and growth returns. During bear markets, it is normal to see some question whether stocks are worth owning, or are simply not worth the volatility risk. But we think this primarily reflects depressed sentiment. In our view, data overwhelmingly support the notion that stocks’ higher returns over long periods have historically compensated investors for the risk. Presuming the future will be different could be very dangerous for investors needing long-term growth." Source: Global Financial Data, as of 5/5/20. USA 10-Year Government Bond Total Return Index and S&P 500 Total Return Index, 12/31/1999 – 5/4/2020. [ii] “Question Everything You Know About Bonds Versus Stocks,” Nir Kaissar, Bloomberg, 4/21/2020. [iii] Source: Global Financial Data, as of 5/5/20. USA 10-Year Government Bond Total Return Index and S&P 500 Total Return Index, 1/1/1929 – 12/31/1948 and 1/1/1989 – 12/31/2008. [iv] Ibid. USA 10-Year Government Bond Total Return Index and S&P 500 Total Return Index, 12/31/2008 – 5/4/2020. [v] Ibid. USA 10-Year Government Bond Total Return Index and S&P 500 Total Return Index, 12/31/1928 – 12/31/1948 and 12/13/1988 – 12/31/2008. [vi] Ibid. USA 10-Year Government Bond Total Return Index and S&P 500 Total Return Index, 12/31/1999 – 12/31/2019. [vii] Ibid. USA 10-Year Government Bond Total Return Index and S&P 500 Total Return Index, 12/31/2019 – 5/4/2020. [viii] Source: FactSet, as of 5/5/2020.. 10-year US Treasury yield (constant maturity), 9/30/1981 – 5/5/2020. [ix] Source: FactSet, as of 5/5/2020. 10-year US Treasury yield (constant maturity), 5/5/2020. [x] Source: TreasuryDirect, as of 5/4/2020. Interest rate on a 10-year US Treasury note auctioned on 2/9/2000. MY COMMENT OTHER THAN in the mega high interest times in the early 1980's I have never owned a bond and dont intend to change now. The bonds I owned back than were 30 year Treasury's......zero coupon bonds. I dont remember for sure but interest rates on these were in the neighborhood of 11-14%. I put about $150,000 into them in my Keough Plan. I could not resist the guaranteed return over 10%. With those interest rates I considered them absolutely NO risk investments. I ended up selling them when the interest rates went back down significantly. At the point I sold them they had appreciated SO MUCH that it would have been RIDICULOUS to continue to hold them to maturity. It was CRAZY when I sold those bonds. I got a call from my broker, Merrill Lynch, one day out of the blue. They wanted to buy my bonds. They made me an offer on the first one and it was well above the market. So, on the second one when they made their offer I asked for more and they agreed. I kept asking for more and more and more as we went through each bond and they agreed. At the end I was asking for CRAZY money and they were WHINING....."COME ON....."......but they paid. I never found out what was going on....BUT they were in some kind of a big panic and CRUNCH over something and really needed those bonds. One of the GREATEST investments of my lifetime. AND....it was NICE to screw Merrill Lynch. That money became a BIG basis for my retirement account and stock investing. NOW.....since that time....I have ALWAYS been invested in......ONLY......stocks and funds. My belief is that for the long term stocks and funds WILL beat bonds and the supposed SAFETY of bonds is simply an ILLUSION since there is much potential to lose money in bonds due to interest rate moves.
So far, so good.......today. Looking at my portfolio, EVERYTHING is up nicely. Seems to be a BROAD rally today across the board. All my stocks........which cover just about every aspect of the consumer economy.......or are at least a representation of the consumer economy the way I see it....are UP NICELY today. It would be nice if this is an indication that we will NOT fade at the close today.... and that......... there is more room to gain today between now and the close.
Wheeewww my PYPL UBER & LAMR are up double digits percentage today! Haven’t had a strong day like today in a loooong while. Not even at the beginning of this year
