Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of June 1st! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending Tuesday Monthly vehicle sales Wednesday 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing 10:00 a.m. Factory orders Thursday 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. International trade 8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs Friday 8:30 a.m. Employment 3:00 p.m. Consumer credit
Stocks & Silver Soar In May As Oil Surges To Best Month Ever Sell in May 'Worked'... if you sold the S&P 500 at the open each day and closed the short at the close of the day-session. In May, The S&P 500 fell 22 points in aggregate from the open to the close (while gaining 134 points from the close to the open) The US major stock indices were all higher in May, led by Transports (S&P lagged overall)... On the week, Nasdaq managed to scramble back above unchanged today as the Dow led (and Trump's lack of worst case scenario was the reason to buy stocks into the close... Momentum outperformed Value in May but did see a major reversal this week... Source: Bloomberg FANG Stocks managed to hold on to gains in May... Source: Bloomberg Banks were mixed on the month with Goldman best and Wells worst... Source: Bloomberg Very choppy month for bonds with the long-end higher in yield on the month and short-end yields falling... Source: Bloomberg The market is pricing in negative Fed Funds rates for June 2021... Source: Bloomberg The dollar dived for the second straight month to 9 week lows... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos were mixed on the month with Bitcoin and Ethereum both higher on the week.... Source: Bloomberg Oil drastically outperformed its commodity colleagues this month... Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Silver dramatically outperformed gold on the month... Source: Bloomberg This was the biggest monthly compression in the gold/silver ratio since 1987... Source: Bloomberg Finally, there's this... Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
Weekly Market Performance – May 29, 2020: Equities Continue Run During A Shortened Week. Equities US equities delivered positive returns during this abbreviated trading week. All three indexes were higher, with the best performer being the Dow, while the Nasdaq lagged. The S&P 500 finished the week above the 3,000 level for the first time since early March. The small cap Russell 2000 along with the mid-cap S&P 400 Index enjoyed positive weeks, with both indexes returning over 2%. “The S&P 500 has incredibly bounced more than 35% from the March lows,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Which would be the best bear market rally ever, suggesting this very well isn’t a bear market bounce, but the start of a new uptrend.” The story of the week was a sharp rotation in the beaten up value sectors early on, as financials gained more than 6%, closely followed by real estate and industrials. Energy was the worst performing sector as oil price gains stalled, while communication services was the only other sector to lose ground on the week. Looking at style, large cap value stocks beat out large cap growth by over 2% for the week. Amid ongoing COVID-19 disruptions, labor and foreign policy challenges, along with risks associated with reopening the economy, US equities maintained their strength. Several timely indicators have pointed to a pickup in economic activity, such as an increase in new home sales along with an unexpected increase in consumer confidence. Our research suggests that second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) could contract as much as 30% annualized, but global progress in reopening economies combined with massive stimulus measures point to a potentially strong rebound in the third and fourth quarters. International Stocks The MSCI EAFE and the MSCI Emerging Markets Indexes continued its upward quest from the previous week, with the developed markets outperforming emerging markets by over 3%. Given the news out of Hong Kong last week as well as the Hang Seng’s struggles last Friday, its market rebounded modestly to finish up only a fraction this week. With the new changes in Hong Kong’s security laws, many are pondering the future of the nation/state as a global financial hub. The action by China in Hong Kong concerning its sovereignty caused Washington to move toward placing actions against Beijing. Moreover, White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow added that the US may pay for companies to bring its supply chains from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. European markets were higher this week, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index up over 3%. As in the United States, investors are concerned with COVID-19 and the subsequent reopening of the European economy, but European stocks have held steady, as the pandemic has been slowing and countries are opening back up. Fiscal stimulus is in the air overseas, as the European Commission is reportedly set to propose a 750 billion euro recovery package, while Japan is finishing a $1.1 trillion stimulus package. Fixed Income and Commodities Fixed income prices were little changed on the week, with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining under 0.70%. Credit spreads tightened modestly as investors appear optimistic about the prospects of reopening the US economy as well as a potential pickup in economic activity. Investment grade corporate debt issuance set a new record this week, with total new issues surpassing $1 trillion in just 149 days. This is a milestone typically reached in the second half of the year, as the Federal Reserve programs have suppressed yields, allowing corporations easier access to funding. Last month showed a record drop in consumer spending of over 13%, however personal savings enjoyed its largest surge ever at 33%. Once the economy reopens, we should expect these trends to reverse, which would thus help the economic landscape. Oil prices contracted modestly with July contracts for WTI crude posting a decline of about 2% for the week. Gold finished up a fraction, consolidating following an impressive rally of nearly 15% year to date. Looking Ahead Economic data for next week begins with the Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index data along with the ISM Manufacturing survey and construction spending on Monday. Contractions are expected in both given the present climate. Wednesday is all about the autos, as we get total number of cars and trucks sold in May. The consensus, according to Factset, is that 11 million total vehicles were sold last month. On Thursday, we receive new unemployment claims with optimism that the recent lower trend of claims continues. Also, we will get data on labor productivity along with the trade balance. To end the shortened week, Friday’s reports will include non-farm payrolls along with the unemployment rate. Strong Breadth Surge On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 4. While that move marks an important milestone for an index that has rebounded more than 35% from its March 23 low, we believe market internals may paint an even more promising picture for future stock returns. Technology and growth stocks were undoubtedly the leaders during the market drop, and many of these stocks have recovered to the point of having positive year-to-date returns. Year-to-date numbers for financials and industrials have been less impressive, but that doesn’t mean they’ve been left behind in the recovery. All 11 sectors have gained more than 20% from the March lows, and every sector, except for the defensive consumer staples sector, is up at least 30%, with energy’s 59% advance leading the way. This has led to strong breadth, or market participation readings. Through Thursday’s close, 96% of the components in the S&P 500 were trading above their respective 50-day moving averages, the most since 1991. Perhaps more importantly, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, these momentum surges historically have been followed by above-average forward returns. February 2019 was the last time more than 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, and the S&P 500 went on to post a 29% gain for the year. “Breadth surges like we’ve seen recently can signal short-term overbought conditions,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But for longer-term investors, they have historically marked uptrends with lasting durability.” DJIA Up Seven Straight on June’s First Trading Day According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020 (page 88), the first trading day of June is the third worst first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining just cumulative 304.59 points since 1998 (July is best with 1175.74 DJIA points gained). Over the past 25 years, DJIA’s first trading day of June has produced gains 72.0% of the time with an average gain of 0.04%. Sizable losses in 2002, 2011 and 2012 limit overall performance. S&P 500 has advanced 64.0% of the time. NASDAQ has been slightly weaker at 56.0%. Russell 2000 has advanced 64.0% with the strongest average performance of 0.17%. Following three straight losses from 2010 to 2012, DJIA has advanced seven straight years on the first trading day of June. Typical June Trading: Early Gains Tend to Fade After Mid-Month Over the last twenty-one years, the month of June has been a rather lackluster month for the market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have faired better with modest average gains. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days. From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into or near negative territory depending upon index just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and turned into losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally lead by technology and small-cap. May's Top Performing Stocks Fri, May 29, 2020 After an absolutely amazing April, traders were in no mood to sell this May. Within the Russell 1000, which tracks the 1,000 largest US stocks by market cap, the index's components rallied an average of 5.3% with just over 70% of the index's components trading up during the month. In the table below, we highlight some of the biggest winners. Some of these names may sound familiar, but there are bound to be a few that you've never heard of. This month, three stocks in the Russell 1000 gained more than 50%. The best of those three was Twilio (TWLO). After closing out April at a price of $112.3, the stock rallied 73% to just shy of $200 per share. So far in 2020, TWLO has almost doubled. Not familiar with TWLO? The company creates a number of APIs that enable voice, video, and messaging capabilities to their platforms. So when you get a text from UBER telling you that your car is on its way, that message is likely powered by TWLO's software. Looking through the list of this month's winners, like TWLO, a large share of the stocks listed come from the Technology sector. Of the 34 names on the list, 14 are form the Tech sector, and the next closest sector - Consumer Discretionary - has just seven stocks on the list. The top-performing stock from the Consumer Discretionary sector has been Wayfair (W), which has gained nearly 38%. Apparently, after being stuck at home for the last several weeks, many Americans have decided they need some new furniture. In total, eight of the eleven GICS sectors are represented on the list. The only sectors not making the cut? Financials, Real Estate, and Utilities. Maybe next month. Most Stocks Above Their 50-DMAs Since 1991 Fri, May 29, 2020 As we noted in yesterday's Sector Snapshot, if you were to pick out any one stock in the S&P 500, odds are it would be above its 50-DMA. Currently, 96.24% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-DMAs. On a sector basis, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, and Materials all have 100% of their stocks above their 50-DMAs. That is a huge share of the index sitting above their 50-DMAs at once. As shown in the chart below, times in which there have been this many stocks above their 50-DMAs have been few and far between. Of all days since the start of 1990, there have only been four other days with a reading as high or higher than the current 96.24%. The most recent of these was March 5th, 1991 when 96.59% of the index was above its 50-DMA. Other than that, only February 11th through 13th of that same year saw these types of readings (97.4%, 96.6%, and 97.8%, respectively). Fund Flows Still Show Little Equities Enthusiasm Thu, May 28, 2020 The table below gives a summary of mutual and exchange-traded fund flows as compiled by the Investment Company Institute for the week ending May 20th. Equity fund flows remain negative. While there’s been lots of anecdotal evidence of retail enthusiasm in the equity market, fund flows are a very different story. This week was relatively modest, with equity fund outflows in the bottom 6% of all readings across mutual funds and ETFs. That totals $13.7bn of AUM out the door, with the worst hits coming for global funds which saw flows in the bottom 3% of all readings. The last 3 months and year have been the worst on record for aggregate equity fund flows across mutual funds and ETFs, and the worst three months on record for world equity funds. ETFs tracking equities have not seen large inflows but they are also not suffering the same kind of outflows as mutual funds. Commodity funds and bond funds are a totally different story. The last three months have been the best on record for commodity fund inflows, while bond funds have seen readings in the top 3% of all periods for the last week and month; recent commodity fund flows are slightly cooler than their record pace of the last three months but are very, very strong nonetheless.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 5.29.20- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 5.29.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
Stock Market Analysis Video for May 29th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5.31.20 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (6/1) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (6/1-6/5) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics June 2020 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 6.1.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 6.1.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 6.2.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 6.2.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 6.3.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 6.3.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 6.4.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 6.4.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 6.5.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 6.5.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($ZM $CRWD $DKS $DOCU $WORK $CPB $CBRL $AVGO $CLDR $SJM $ATHM $CIEN $AEO $TTC $BZUN $APPS $GOOS $HQY $HHR $DCI $EXPR $SMAR $VRA $CMD $AMBA $ESTC $TIF $CNK $ZUO $MDB $BBW $NGL $MIK $GHG $ENS $SCWX $PD $EVRI $PLX $YEXT $GPS $SAIC) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning June 1st, 2020 <-- click there to view!
Silver breaking out after breaking $18 resistance and consolidating last week. Miners are way undervalued right now. Some miners to watch or take a bite of while the price keeps rising: $SIL $EXK $USAS $PAAS $SVM
Quick drop this morning. Not sure if it’s US / China relations or the riots or maybe both. Def messed up what happened to Floyd. No reason to kill a man over a fake $20, but I’m wondering if there’s more to this story.
coroners report said asphyxia was not the cause of death. Second check Results by aspca have not been released yet even though it was completed this weekend.
Yeah this market remains very resilient despite the violent protests and higher tensions with China While the protests have been mostly peaceful here in Hawaii, I have seen some violent scenes for the mainlands. Nothing wrong to protest but I think some protestors have gone too far with looting and destroying small businesses that have nothing to do with the incident Stay safe everyone
I think it's important to remember that the protestors and the rioters/looters are 2 different groups of people.
I gotta admit it, This market has me completely stumped.Covid-1.8M cases, 107k deaths, Unemployment @ 36M, S&P @ 25x future earnings and most major cities are burning. Not to mention a probable second wave of Covid and an election year. Who the heck is buying this market? and what happens if they find a vaccine... S&P 4k??
