The Long Term Investor

Hi and welcome Bigmaix.

How many stocks or funds is too many? A good question with many answers depending on the individual investor. I personally prefer a very concentrated portfolio of only 10-15 individual stocks and they USUALLY make up about 55-60% of my total portfolio. BUT.....that is me. I also have two funds......SP500 Index and Fidelity Contra Fund. I know that ALL my 11 stocks are in the SP500 and I have not looked.......but........I would not be surprised if ALL were also in the Contra Fund. I dont mind in the least doubling up or tripling up on the holdings as individual stocks and in the funds.

I would think for most people there is no need to own more than about three funds or ETF's. Individual stocks.......I would think somewhere between 10 and 50 would be the norm for many people. As with EVERYTHING in investing what you hold and how many is PRIMARILY a function of RISK TOLERANCE and how aggressive you are with your investing.

I DEFINITELY agree with Warren Buffett that many investors go way overboard with diversification and diversify their returns to death.

 

IF IT WAS ME I would not consider ATH in the least with two good funds. I would........personally..........go with the one that has better performance and ALSO has a significantly lower cost in terms of expense ratio. To me this would be a no brainier to get better performance AND lower acquisition cost. That cost difference will add up to a lot of money over the long term.

AGAIN........if it was me......I would NOT assume that being further below the ALL TIME HIGH would translate into higher ceiling for future gains or increased future gains.

DISCLAIMER: I have NOT looked at those two funds, i am simply answering based on the data you posted.

 

LOTS of green in the accounts today. Got BEAT by the SP500 by .51%. BUT......when the GREEN is good, I am all good.

KILLER markets over the past 3-4 weeks and especially this week so far. BIG MOMENTUM.........I think it will probably hold for the next couple of days to end the week with BIG GAINS. If this sort of market action continues.....we will see more and more people coming back into the markets....BIG TIME. Fear of missing out will take hold and drive new money and returning money back into the markets. BUT.......as is usual.....MANY people will continue to wait for that MYTHICAL buying opportunity. We are in the middle of an OLD FASHIONED........SUMMER RALLY.

EXACTLY the reason that.......I am FULLY invested for the long term.....ALL the time.....through......the good, the bad, and the UGLY.

 

HERE is a repeat of the portfolio model.......as usual:

I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc.

PORTFOLIO MODEL

"Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 55% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 45% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing.

As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a VALUE style component (Dodge & Cox Stock Fund), a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 10 stock portfolio.

STOCKS:

Alphabet Inc
Amazon
Apple
Costco
Home Depot
Honeywell
Johnson & Johnson
Nike
3M
MSFT
PG

MUTUAL FUNDS:

SP500 Index Fund
Fidelity Contra Fund
Dodge & Cox Stock Fund

CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (70). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)"

MY COMMENT

This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my eleven stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis.

 

This is an EXTREME story but, there is a good lesson here for ANY investor:

Italian trader loses his ‘entire life savings’ on one insanely risky position

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...-position-2020-06-03?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"This year’s been a real grind for Luckin Coffee LK, 15.12% investors.

At one point, Lone Capital held $367 million in stock to lead all hedge funds covered by Insider Monkey. DSAM Partners had $146.2 million worth. Melvin Capital, Renaissance Tech and Tybourne Capital were also bullish on the company, according to Yahoo Finance.

So when the stock, which was already down 89% for the year, had its trading halted back in April amid an investigation into financial misconduct, the losses were felt far and wide.

But one retail investor with a PG-13 Reddit name took a particularly grievous hit.

Yes, StopFapForever, who claims to be a 28-year-old Italian, shared his brutal market mistake with the bunch on WallStreetBets. He apparently he went all-in on Luckin and lost his entire life savings in the process. “Now I’m broke af,” he wrote, posting this screenshot of the carnage:

The top response fits the general theme of the unforgiving, risk-embracing Reddit group: “You still have over $12k left, come back tomorrow and finish the job,” lehacf wrote.

When pressed by the mob as to why he would take sink all that cash into such an obviously sketchy position back in January, StopFapForever, who says he still runs two business that should allow him recoup the losses within a few years, did his best to explain.

“It was before corona, lockdown and fraud,” he said. “Nobody knew back then. It went from 17 to 51 in 2 months from Nov to Jan. Could have just kept going instead of explode.”

After getting hammered overnight, he shared the expensive lesson he learned. “I’m gonna just invest in ETFs, gold and bonds for the rest of my hopefully long but quite useless life,” he said.

For what it’s worth, his Luckin position enjoyed a double-digit gain in Wednesday’s session, following the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.11% , S&P 500 SPX, -0.12% and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, 0.05% deep into green territory.

MY COMMENT

It is very DANGEROUS when people get caught up in MANIA. It often dose NOT seem like mania. Especially if you are part of a group of similar thinking people that serves to egg each other on. We ALL need to be very careful to NOT get caught up in DELUSIONAL THINKING. It can seem so reasonable and rational at times. We.......humans......have a great capacity to FOOL OURSELVES. I have seen some similar examples of this sort of thing in the past where a group of investors got carried away in a message board group, egging each other on.....more and more and more. GREED is always a BIG component of this sort of thing.

 

HERE is the GREAT article above posted by Zukodany:

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

EBay Inc (EBAY.O) raised its current-quarter revenue and profit forecasts on Thursday, as people stuck at home due to the COVID-19 pandemic ordered more through its online platform, sending its shares to a record high.

Soaring online demand has boosted performance of e-commerce companies as well as helped traditional retailers’ businesses.

While Walmart (WMT.N) and Target (TGT.N), which also sell essential goods, recorded their best online sales in years, specialty retailers American Eagle (AEO.N) and Best Buy (BBY.N) sold more online as stores remained closed during lockdowns.

EBay said demand was strong across all its businesses, including home & garden, electronics, fashion and collectibles, with the company now expecting second-quarter gross merchandise volume growth rate to be between 23% and 26% from a year earlier.

The company said revenue in classifieds were performing at the high end of estimates. It said in February it was looking at multiple candidates for a potential sale of the unit.

EBay said its full-year performance will likely be above the range it forecast earlier. In April, it estimated full-year revenue between $9.56 billion and $9.76 billion.

It expects second-quarter revenue to be between $2.75 billion and $2.80 billion, compared with earlier estimates of $2.38 billion to $2.48 billion.

It also raised its adjusted profit forecast to between $1.02 and $1.06 per share from an earlier range of $0.73 to $0.80 per share.

Shares of the company rose as much as 11.6% to an all-time high of $51.88 in early trading.

MY COMMENT

YES......Ebay and other online sellers and businesses are BOOMING. We are going to see many many types of businesses and companies BOOMING as the recovery picks up steam heading to the end of the year. At least......that is MY opinion.

DOW......managed to end the day slightly positive, with the SP500 and NASDAQ negative.....a mixed market for today, but after the BIG gains yesterday I consider this ANOTHER positive day.

 

Just had a chance to sit down and turn on the TV. There on Varney & Co. I saw the following in the span of about 45 seconds:

DOW up 700+ and flirting with 27,000.

We are on track to end the week UP 3% or more. this would be the third week in a row if it happens. the last time we had three weeks in a row that were 3% or more was in 1933.

2.5 Million jobs added in May.....Unemployment rate drops to 13.3%.

That pretty much tells the story of the OPEN TODAY. Sounds good to me and makes sense considering the jobs data. The three weeks in a row at 3% or higher gain per week is NICE and INTERESTING, but not really meaningful. Just one of those interesting market statistics that turn up once in a while. BUT......it does show that we have been on a TEAR lately.

I would NOT want to be a gambler on the short side of things right now or over the next few months. ALL IN ALL......more evidence and indication that we will be in a very different situation by the end of the year.

Will this gain today last till the close? WHO KNOWS. Seems like the MOMENTUM.....however....is strongly positive so it may.

ALL of what has been happening since the March 23 low, is in line with what I have expected as a potential situation. At the moment.....WAY too many people.....are letting their political views and political "stuff" get in the way of their investing. There will ALWAYS be some excuse for why the markets SHOULD be down.......meanwhile those that are long term and have a little bit of guts will CONTINUE to rack up the gains. Of course, those gains will not be straight up. We will still have the normal market dips and corrections, just like always.

 

I REFUSE to focus on the NEGATIVITY. We are in the middle of a BIG rally. I have.......LITERALLY.......seen hundreds of articles over the past month or two about how there is NO WAY this will be a V shaped recovery. WELL.....right about now....it is looking like a CLASSIC......"V" shaped.....recovery. Here is the SP500 year to date.



HAVING issues finding a chart that will post.......LOOK AT a SP500 chart YTD. I will find one that is postable when I have a chance.


WELL....looks like the economic geniuses missed this one ( the jobs data) BIG TIME. I will NEVER give any credence to "economic" projections about the stock markets. The so called "science" of economics is NOT scientific in the least. ALL the economic projections.......which are often based on surveying economists........at least those that the MEDIA accepts......are GARBAGE. The Universities and Colleges and government are FULL of economists that range from socialist, to communist, to crazy, to delusional, to totally out of touch with reality. That is why they work where they do.......those sorts of jobs.......dont require any connection to reality or actual success in investing, banking or finance.

It is.....very dangerous.....for any sort of investor to take action based on this sort of economic "stuff". I certainly dont......and......I suggest that anyone that is a reasonable and realistic investor SHOULD NOT.

 

Ok......REALLY BIG SHOW....in the markets today. BIG GREEN in my accounts today in spite of the SP500 beating me by .58% today. Keep in mind that my PRIMARY GOAL is to average at least 10% total return over the LONG TERM. My secondary, "aspirational" goal is to try.....emphasis on "TRY"...to beat the SP500 each year. I DO NOT obsess over the second "aspirational" goal. I am beating the SP500 for some time periods and it is beating me for some time periods. As to GOAL number one......very much above 10% total return for the LONG TERM.

How we doing right now for the year?

DOW year to date (-5.00%)
SP500 year to date (-1.14%)

YES......after all the STUFF of the past three months, we are about to be POSITIVE for the year in the SP500. AMAZING.

As to the week:

Dow for the past 5 days +6.81%
SP500 for the past 5 days +4.91%

ANOTHER week in the bag.

 

I.......OBVIOUSLY....agree with the view expressed by the article below. I HAVE NOT even looked at the "epicenter" stocks talked about in the article. To me that.......is NOT relevant. I DONT pick stocks according to an article about an analyst. BUT.....I believe strongly that the views expressed in the article are going to be proven to be accurate. ACTUALLY......"are going to be proven to be accurate"........is an understatement and at this point.....HAS already happened, and will continue for the rest of the year.

Analyst who predicted market's 40% rally says these stocks will lead to all-time highs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anal...cks-will-lead-to-alltime-highs-200846029.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"When the stock market was in free fall back in March, Fundstrat Global Advisors founder Tom Lee made the bold call of a 25% rally by April.

He was right.

Now, Lee is doubling down on his call to continue leaning in on so-called “epicenter” companies, or stocks in consumer discretionary, industrials, and energy sectors that have been most beaten down to deliver the market to new highs.

“The market has moved with such vigor, but the economic data, maybe with the exception of today, has just been muddling and I think maybe today will be a call to action to get some money off the sidelines,” Lee told Yahoo Finance’s YFi PM, adding that he estimates the $5 trillion in money market dry powder will boost stocks further.

Casino stocks like Wynn Resorts, which rallied 20% this week alone, and energy names like Chevron, which rallied 10%, have well outpaced the overall market since the March bottom. Lee expects that trend to continue, if the market’s recent turn higher does indeed attract new money from the sidelines." So far, his bet that this recovery would play out similar to the Great Recession in 2008 has proved true, with the hardest hit sectors recently showing the sharpest snap back. Casino stocks like Wynn Resorts, which rallied 20% this week alone, and energy names like Chevron, which rallied 10%, have well outpaced the overall market since the March bottom. Lee expects that trend to continue, if the market’s recent turn higher does indeed attract new money from the sidelines.

“I think that’s where the dry powder is going to go,” he said. “It’s going to seek cyclically sensitive stocks.”

Still a lot of risk
Bloomberg reported this week, the airline ETF JETS recently recorded 64 straight days of inflows, bringing assets from $33 million in March to more than $1 billion as its CEO credited the funding surge to “bored millennial day traders.”" Lee conceded that certain epicenter stocks have seen recent rallies that could be indicative of speculative bets, including American Airlines which rallied 66% in the last two days after the company announced it would be flying more of its domestic schedule in July than in May (though still just half of its last year total.) As Bloomberg reported this week, the airline ETF JETS recently recorded 64 straight days of inflows, bringing assets from $33 million in March to more than $1 billion as its CEO credited the funding surge to “bored millennial day traders.”

“Airlines have definitely moved a little faster so things like General Dynamics and Snap-On might be better derivative plays,” he said, highlighting two alternative aerospace alternatives. Lee’s list also included cruise liner Carnival, which has rallied 50% off its March lows, but still trades at half its pre-COVID-19 level.

“Even though it’s bounced, it is still many floors below ground level,” he said.

Of course, there are still large downside risks to consider for any of the discretionary names that have so far benefited from lockdown orders being lifted. However, as Lee notes, since states have reopened coronavirus case counts have not spiked as many feared. Whether case counts rise in the wake of protests around the country could have a major impact on whether the consumer discretionary names can continue their run through the end of the year.

“The market is not oblivious to this,” he said. “The epicenter stocks would be cratering if there was incremental risk and you know county-by-county we are tracking it, so I think the fact that they are holding up is actually ironically telling us there isn’t a second wave.”

With the S&P 500 reaching nearly 3,200 Friday, it now sits just 200 points away from new all-time highs. As Lee notes, his epicenter stocks only account for about a quarter of the S&P 500 market cap, but could total 62% of the points gained if the index hits his price target."

MY COMMENT

I DO NOT post this article as any sort of recommendation for any of the stocks cited. BUT.......I strongly believe that the market leading stocks of the past few years......companies like AMZN, COST, MSFT, etc, etc, etc,..........will achieve new highs and will be part of a GENERAL RALLY that will be strong and long lasting. I strongly believe that the general view expressed in the article will prove to be accurate.

HOWEVER.....the BIG issue going forward......will be the election in November. It is CLEAR that SOME......not all..... politicians and MEDIA HACKS will stop at NOTHING to disrupt the country and the economy for political, individual, POWER. I will NOT get into personal politics here.......BUT......as a market follower and investor, it is CLEAR that we are in a very NASTY political time. THE danger is that this SCHISM in the country will SPILL OVER.......and.......disrupt the economy and the markets. I personally NEVER make investment decisions based on politics.

On an individual level there is a HUGE danger right now that MANY investors will let their political feelings IMPAIR their view of BUSINESS REALITY and their investing decisions. This danger is on.......ALL sides of the political spectrum. YES....political events can and will impact the markets....BUT.....an investor that gets caught up in allowing their personal political BIAS to impact their decisions is a FOOL. I have invested through many political situations and many administrations. Some I have agreed with, and some I have not........that is the ULTIMATE UNDERSTATEMENT. Over my life at times I have leaned Democrat, Republican, and now Libertarian. BUT......I have found a way to make money over the LONG TERM.......IN SPITE OF....what is going on around me in the political world. The BIG danger that politics brings to investing is EMOTION......raw, foolish, blind EMOTION that colors your view of EVERYTHING going on in the world.

 

HERE is EXACTLY what I was talking about a few posts up. BEWARE ANYTHING quoting or sourced to "economists". ESPECIALLY things that are based on POLLS of economists. Does it make any sense to do ANYTHING as an investor based on a survey. Many of these people are.......IDIOTS. Rely on this "stuff" for anything to do with investing as a LONG TERM investor and you will probably be joining them in that category.

Business economists expect worst slump since 1940s

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/business-economists-expect-worst-slump-since-1940s

NOT going to put this article up on here....any that are interested can read it. Basically they are being polled on GDP.

Futures are BOOMING.......again. The short term direction of markets in general this week and in the coming weeks is OVERWHELMINGLY POSITIVE.

MY COMMENT

Regarding the above article........what I rely on to invest and manage my account is NOT this sort of FLUFF. I RELY on the simple company business financials and data that is reported by companies each quarter and each year. Perhaps I am an ABERRATION in today's world. I dont run any spread sheets or simulations or models or ANYTHING else. Record keeping? I simply keep the last copy of each brokerage statement and shred the old one when the new one comes. For mutual funds, I simply record the annual TOTAL RETURN at the end of each year.

I started investing in the era where the financial data was all you had. Through accounting and business classes in college I learned about marketing, management, and especially ACCOUNTING. EVALUATING a new stock to me.......starts with......a basic review of the general accounting business data in the......balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement and capital statement. There have been MANY TIMES over the years that I have decided to NOT buy a stock just from looking at these documents. Once I get past this information I go on the read anything about the company financials, business and management available. I look at analyst statements and reports. I read everything I can on the company and its business......good or bad. I ALSO rely on my own training, experience and view of a company........as well as........EDUCATED INTUITION based on over 45 years of investing and being involved in the business world.

You know my simple criteria for a business............AMERICAN, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCTS, WORLD WIDE MARKETING, DOMINANCE in their industry, DIVIDEND PAYING (if possible), etc, etc. A BIG factor to me is companies that are young in their life span......BUT...........have PROVEN that they are on the way to becoming long term household names......in other words LONG TERM MOMENTUM that will last for years and years.

I DO NOT limit myself to new or up and coming companies. There are MANY old companies that have been going through a REINVENTION of themselves and their business model over the past 15 years. Many of these old companies will fade away very slowly. HOWEVER......a good number will successfully adapt to the current business world and the needs and wants of the modern consumer and will THRIVE. These OLD companies usually pay a hefty dividend. They BIG KEY for making the transition to the modern consumer and business success is GREAT MANAGEMENT.

An example for me is PG. This is the last stock I added to my portfolio a while back. I needed to add a company since I was down at the bottom end of the range of my preferred stock investment mix. I like to have 10-15 stocks.......and..........I was down to 10. I surprisingly liked what I was seeing with the company and their response to the "modern", Millennial, business and consumer world. When I started my search for another long term holding, I had no idea it would end up being PG. I think management at this BIG company is on the right path and they will be able to leverage the income from their many ICONIC brands to grow the company and produce a good return. The BIG DIVIDEND will be a huge help when reinvested and compounded over the years.

INVESTING does not have to be complex. FIND a great company and attach yourself to that company for the long term. VERY SIMPLE.........but.....like EVERYTHING in life........simple is very very difficult. Our brains CRAVE complexity and systems. We are trained through life that doing something......action....is good. Doing nothing....is bad, lazy, not valued. How often in business or other organizations do we see the person that is all action and activity and buzz, and doing all sorts of "stuff".......and.....gets mediocre results......considered a better worker than the person that simply does their job very effectively in a simple, effortless, way.

ANYWAY.......lets enjoy what will.......probably.....be a good day for stock and fund investors.

 

We are in the middle of a multi month HISTORIC, EXPLOSIVE, market move up. This is the type of move that investors need to catch in order to meet or beat the averages.

Opinion: The Nasdaq is likely to hit an all-time high because traders can’t believe this rally

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...se-traders-cant-believe-this-rally-2020-06-05

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


Nasdaq market timers’ short-term trading portfolios are almost 50% in cash on average

"The U.S. market’s rally took the Nasdaq Composite to within 1.6% of a new all-time high earlier this week, but short-term Nasdaq-focused market timers are not exhibiting the irrational exuberance you otherwise would expect.

That’s understandable. Who would have dared think at the depths of the bear market in mid-March that by early June we’d even be talking about new highs for the Nasdaq COMP, 0.39% ? Now that we’re here, you’d think that market timers would become positively giddy. But they haven’t — and that’s encouraging for bulls from a contrarian perspective.

Market timers have been mostly skeptical of this rally from the start

Truth is, market timers have been mostly skeptical of this rally from the start. Almost a month ago I reported that, because of their skepticism, “the rally has more room to run.” Since that column appeared, the Nasdaq is up 7.6% and the S&P 500 SPX, 0.51% has gained 8.8%.

Fortunately for the bulls, the timers remain surprisingly skeptical. This is particularly evident among those short-term market timers who focus on the Nasdaq market. These timers’ average recommended exposure level right now stands at 53.2% (as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). This means the average Nasdaq market timer is allocating almost half of his short-term equity trading portfolio to cash, which is incredible when the market is so close to a new all-time high.

To put the current reading in perspective, consider that the HNNSI stands at the 69th percentile of the distribution of all daily readings since 2000. That is well short of the 90th percentile of the distribution that in the past has done a decent job of identifying high-risk zones for the market — as you can see from the accompanying chart.


This picture of relatively subdued bullishness is confirmed by several other sentiment indicators as well. Here is the current status of the three sentiment indicators I referred to in my May 12th column:

• The American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey is showing even less bullishness than is the HNNSI. It is based on the number of the Association’s members who are in the bullish, bearish or neutral camps. For historical comparisons I calculate the number of outright bulls as a percentage of those who either are outright bullish or bearish. That currently stands at 47.1%, which is at the 26th percentile of the historical distribution since 1987.

• A recently-introduced sentiment index from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank also is indicating widespread gloom. This index is a “high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles.” The latest level is at the 4th percentile of the historical distribution, meaning that it’s been higher than it is now (more bullish) 96% of the time in past decades.

• Another portrait of relative gloom comes from the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, which was created by Scott Baker of Northwestern, Nick Bloom of Stanford, and Steven Davis of the University of Chicago. It measures economic uncertainty based on “the frequency of news media references to economic policy uncertainty, the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years, and the extent of forecaster disagreement over future inflation and federal government purchases.” The U.S.-based EPU is currently higher than all other readings since the professors began collecting data in 1985 — indicating that economic policy uncertainty has never been greater.

Undoubtedly, there’s so much uncertainty and gloom due in part to our vivid memories of the waterfall decline in February and March. Those memories are keeping strong the veritable Wall of Worry that bull markets climb.

Contrarians typically don’t try to forecast how long the rally will last, letting the sentiment data tell the story on a day-by-day basis. It would be a bad sign if market timers in coming days jump on the bullish bandwagon in a big way, for example.

But, if the market timers’ mood remains subdued, this incredible rally will have the potential to keep going even longer.

MY COMMENT

I BELIEVE that this market upturn has a good ways to go. I see ALL the averages.....DOW, SP500, and NASDAQ getting back to all time highs. Probably by year end or perhaps early next year. Many investors are now starting at a much higher account value compared to the averages BEFORE the BIG DROP. By the time we get back to DOW 3000 and record highs in all the averages, many, perhaps MOST INVESTORS will be way ahead of where they would have been if the DOW had hit 3000 a few months ago.

MISS being invested in this sort of a RALLY and you miss out on those BIG gains. BUT.......miss it, many will.........for a long time. It always happens coming out of a recession or some other market event.

There WILL be weakness and perhaps even a correction along the way........BUT......the averages will recover and continue UPWARD. What is AMAZING is that the ECONOMY....business activity...has a HUGE way to go to get back to normal. We are just at the BEGINNING. As the ECONOMY and business activity explode back to normal the POSITIVE results will DRIVE stocks and funds even higher. The.................PROBABILITY.........of much better than normal business earnings and profits from this current, low start point, is HIGH. These FUTURE positive results that are now "locked and loaded' will......in my opinion.......DRIVE stocks for some time (multiple quarters, perhaps as many as 4-6).......WELL ABOVE the current all time highs.

 

Thank you Bigmaix.

REMEMBER.......what I and others post is NOT investment advice. It is a running account of our thoughts, opinions, and actions we are taking.........our views of the markets. NO ONE has a crystal ball. There are lots of different opinions. When I talk about what I expect over the rest of the year or regarding market actions in the future.........it may or may not happen. I welcome your input and appreciate you "listening" and participating in this thread.