Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of June 20th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Bird's Eye view of the Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 12:15 p.m.Fed's Kashkari speaks Tuesday Earnings: FedEx, Adobe Systems, KB Home, La-Z-Boy, Lennar, CarMax 10 a.m. Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies, Senate banking Wednesday Earnings: H&M, Bed Bath & Beyond, Actuant, Apogee, Red Hat, Winnebago 9 a.m. FHFA HPI 10 a.m. Existing home sales; Fed's Yellen testifies, House Financial Services Thursday Earnings: Accenture, Commercial Metals, Sonic 8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10 a.m. New home sales Friday Earnings: Blackberry, Finish Line 8:30 a.m. Durable goods 10 a.m. Consumer sentiment
Spoiler: Stocks Slump Most In 4 Months As Global Financial Stress Nears 5-Year Highs With everyone worried about Brexit, we thought the folowing might help clarify (Please Note - Very Not Suitable For Work)... ok it didn't help at all but we've been wanting an excuse to play that for a while. Global Financial Stress Index spikes up most since Aug 2011... As Brexit polls surge towards "Leave"... As USDollar Scarcity (panic demand) rears its ugly head again... And GDP-weighted European Sovereign risk surged to 2 year highs... Global Developed Market Sovereign Bond yields have fallen for 17 of the last 18 days to record lows... But here's what sadly really mattered in this week's insane market... A Volatile week.. S&P down 1.3% this week - worst week in 4 months DAX down 6.4% in last 3 weeks - worst drop in 4 months EU Financials up 5% today - best in 2 months (down 13% in 3 weeks, worst run since April 2012) TSY 2s30s +2bps - first steepening in 8 weeks 10Y Bund yields down 4 weeks in a row to record lows (-3.8bps) WTI Crude down 3%, worst week in 2 months Gold up 6.6% in last 3 weeks - most in 4 months Cable up 350 pips from yesterday's lows - biggest swing in 3 months JPY up 5.5% in last 3 weeks - 2nd biggest rise since June 2013 Since The Fed capitulated, Gold leads, bonds are just green and stocks are red... And Nasdaq has been the biggest loser post-Fed... On the week, Nasdaq (Apple and Google) was worst along with Trannies... The S&P 500 cash index is glue to its 50-day moving average... While most EU stocks bounced today, the week was ugly, led by collapse in financials... US Financials continue to slide... It was Quad witch so VIX shenanigans were always likely... Treasury yields ended the week down 3-6bps (belly outperforming, long-end wost) after bonds sold off hard post-Jo-Cox... The Yield curve was quite chaotic this week... The US Dollar Index fell for the 3rd day in a row as Cable rallied... but look at USDJPY's death of volatility today... Elsewhere in alternative currencies, Bitcoin surged and gold and the USD recoupled perfectly today (though note the extremely unsusual behavior yesterday)... Commodity markets were chaotic this week... Gold spiked back above $1300 into the close... Charts: Bloomberg Bonus Chart: Who's right? Bonds or Stocks? Spoiler: Weekend Reading: The Fed Loses Control (And What Comes Next) Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, As I noted yesterday, the FOMC press conference on Wednesday made one thing abundantly clear; the Fed has lost control of the narrative and their credibility. “The problem stems from the Fed’s ongoing adherence to “data dependency.” Last December, when the Fed Funds rate was increased, the Fed discussed the potential for further rate hikes in 2016 as inflation and employment data strengthened. However, in March, with employment and inflationary data improving combined with a strong rebound in the financial markets, the Fed opted to ignore their data and focus on “global risks”to hold rates steady. The problem for Ms. Yellen is while she was waiting to find the “perfect balance” of domestic growth and global stability, global economic weakness has now begun to destabilize domestic growth and employment.” This point should not be taken lightly. In the past, the markets have responded positively to the idea the Fed would not be able to increase rates keeping monetary accommodation high. This time, Mr. Market was not so friendly and the markets were off 20 points yesterday morning approaching a retest of the 2040 support level. The unfortunate assassination of British MP Jo Cox quickly reversed the sell-off yesterday as fears of a “Brexit” were temporarily suspended. As I noted in the Technical Update, (click here to subscribe for free e-delivery) the 2040 support level is now critically important. A violation of that low would break very important support which would likely lead to a deeper market correction. “This isn’t the time to be overly complacent, but it is also not the time to panic. Emotional decision making always leads to the worst outcomes. Maintain a focus on ‘what is’ rather that what you ‘hope’ it to be.” Lastly, as an interesting side note, I have been writing for the last couple of years that economic growth has likely been overstated. The reason was quite simple, the underlying economic data did not support the BEA’s estimates of growth.Not surprisingly, the BEA has just announced they will trim 2% off of GDP next month. “According to BEA’s newest data, real GDP was overstated by about $125 billion from 2007 through 2008, during the period leading into the start of the Great Recession. But the overstatement shrank to about $70 billion in 2009. During 2012 and 2013, when the U.S. economy had what some have referred to as a micro-recession, the overstatement of real GDP growth ballooned to about $275 billion. Despite over $100 billion in revisions to real GDP growth in 2014 and 2015, the overstatement continued to grow to $324 billion, or 2 percent of GDP.” Of course, this explains why many of the numbers just “didn’t add up.” Importantly, the current decline in corporate profits and collapse in return on equity suggest the current economic backdrop is far weaker than currently reported. Next year’s negative revisions to GDP will reveal this to be the case and that a recession will likely have started in the latter half of this year. “What is behind me is not important.” – Michael Sarrazin, Gumball Rally
80% Chance Of Down Week Next Week Following Down Triple Witching Week Since 1991 DJIA has been down 10 times for the whole week of June Triple Witching. Weeks after TWW have been down 22 of 25 of those years or 88% of the time. Following the 10 down TWW DJIA has been down 8 of those 10 years. S&P is down 18 of the last 25 June TWWs and down 12 of 13 since 2003 – average loss -1.08% for the week. Also, when TWW is down S&P is down the following week 7 of 11 since 1991. NASDAQ is a bit firmer during the week after TWW, down 13 of 25. But of the 14 down TWW on 6 following weeks were down. Fed Disconnect and the Brexit vote next week set the week after Triple Witching up terribly.
ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.19.16 - Now I think the rally is over Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
ER for the week beginning 6/20 $ADBE $FDX $KMX $BBRY $RHT $ACN $KBH $LZB $WGO $LEN $BBBY $ATU $SONC $FINL
This weeks Ticker Tv Stocks on the radar for next week http://ticker.tv/vegastrader66/5766bec0f722619c19a6c90c
Good coverage Vegastrader66! The only thing hotter than AMD's run might be the weather in Vegas this week moving into the mid triple digits
Sunday Germany is up .40%, not bad. http://www.ig.com/uk/ig-indices/sunday-germany-30 Apparently the ECB is going to pump a lot of money into Greece on Monday... probably should have bought some Greek stocks last week! Oops.
a rip your face off rally, what a way to start the week, lol. lets see if these gains can hold up going into the session. will be real interesting to see how gold reacts to this throughout the whole week.
@Peter Rezniak - (is he a member?) I see he used TDAm and I use Scottrade. I'm curious what the setting is called to get the candle data to have the "shadow" information, and also how to display overnight data? I've been trying to find it at ST but can't locate it. Maybe they don't have that type of data display.
