Haha 2020 has been some kind of year, so it would be kinda hard for us to avoid some kind of “black swan event”, but I don’t think the market will care much unless the FED stopping the QE all of the sudden
White House scrambles to deny Trump trade adviser’s claim that China deal is ‘over’ https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...-house-adviser-navarro-amid-coronavirus-anger Futures actually dropped pretty hard last night when Navarro said the trade deal is over, but then Trump quickly denied it on Twitter. Another sign that this administration is watching this market closely and will not let the market to drop hard before the election
I know the rule. "The markets can be wrong longer than I can be solvent", Fair enough... But Mr. Market... just do SOMETHING! I have shorts (and I want a lot more) and I have time (My options are out til September now) but for Christ sakes sell of so I can bank or ramp up so I can get my full position. I think his name was Howard Marks I saw on CNBC today, he asked a simple question.. "Why would you buy a stock that has been artificially inflated?" That is absolutely my position... Unemployment at 25%ish?, Oil at these levels when nobody is flying and everybody is staying home? PE's at over 25% and nobody believes they will reach 2019 levels for at least two years, Bankruptcies, foreclosures and defaults have already started to reach historic levels (even with all of the stimulus and temporary halts), Covid spiking at new highs, while only mixed messages are being sent from literally every source. ...and like it or not the R's are gonna get slaughtered in Nov. and won't recover for at least a decade.. How do you think the markets will respond to that? I'm playing with the houses chips so who cares, but I'll bet you a beer that I will be buying my cabin on the lake by next summer courtesy of this lunacy.
Adami on CNBC saying he likes to watch WYNN as an indicator of how things go from here. If people are going out and beginning normal life again, then WYNN does better
This caught my eye There’s a wave of selling estimated to be in the billions that’s about to hit the stock market The final day of June is a week away, and Wall Street is already speculating that there’s the potential some asset allocators, like pension funds, could take the big gains from the stock market and move them into bonds. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/the...ions-thats-about-to-hit-the-stock-market.html
Heh, I moved all my 401k to bonds in mid April thinking there would be another large drop and wanting to hold onto some recovery gains. Oops
I agree with all of this, except your options being until September? You know what's going on, the markets are artificially propped up. Do you think the current administration will just let it all fall apart 2 months before election? The future be damned, this thing will be propped until the election.
What about after election though? Think they will be washing their hands of us investors, and let it correct? Or continue to prop? Seems a tall order in the current state of things, to continue to prop.
I think after November there are 2 possibilities. 1. Trump gets re-elected. The market still corrects, but less so, because he'll leave the same people in charge. After re-election, he'll still want a good legacy, but it won't be as important to make it happen so fast, because re-election is no longer right around the corner, and he actually won't need to campaign anymore as it will be his final term. 2. Biden wins. The market corrects much further and "tarnishes" his presidency very early because it drops to the levels it should be (enormous unemployment, businesses shut down permanently from losses due to the pandemic, global protests demanding change, etc.). The current administration, again, in my opinion, has one concern, and that's getting re-elected. Zero care about the long-term future of the market is being considered right now. Propping the market up THIS much just makes it more and more fake which will be far more damaging long-term than just letting it organically slowly rise over the long-term like it's supposed to.
So a couple of points. I don't believe that the FED can control absolutely every thing, for instance couldn't you see other countries trying to take advantage of Trump going into the election? Say China wants a sweetheart deal and Trump doesn't want the markets to sell off? Another possibility is that stimulus will run out eom, as well as protections from being evicted in most states. How will the markets react to mass foreclosures and bk's? and forget about what happens if a state has to fully shut down again. In AZ we are at 85% of hospital capacity and new cases are growing exponentially. As far as my strategy goes, I buy itm shorts and shorter term when we get market pops, then sell them deep itm on pull backs, and buy further out itm shorts. All of the shorts I have currently were bought with profits from June when I shorted at 3220, so I have lots of powder left going forward. If we get a pull near 3000 I will probably sell the September and buy Novembers (depending on how soon and how fast the pull back is) I have never tried this strategy before as I have always been a very short term trader, but I see opportunities playing farther out and this was the best I could come up with lol. Fingers crossed.
Excellent post T. I 1000000000% agree with all that you wrote. So I know this going to come across as super crazy or whatever, but I’m actually really hoping and praying for another 2008 repeat with respect to the stock market. Why? Mostly (and I really don’t mean to get all political and shit in here) because I want this current administration OUT. I’m embarrassed to admit that I voted red in 2016 and also in the midterms, but not this year. If there is an election this year, I’m essentially not necessarily going for Biden per say, cause I’ll be honest I do think he’s a little bit of a creep. But it’s just that I’m so fed up with this current administration right now that I’ll vote whoever is going up against him to see him ousted. Period. So I’m kinda hoping for a 2008-style market collapse that sorta dictated the election that year. We’ll see. Sorry for that mouthful in here guys. I actually wrote this all up from my phone. But just needed to get this shit off my chest for once lol. Did not intend to get political in here though. Carry on!
Fair enough. I agree with your assessment, I just disagree that the market can't continue to be propped no matter how bad it gets. I don't see any state re-closing, no matter how bad the numbers get. Being Trump's re-election year, he will not support any state closures, as we've already seen. That means any red state governor will have to know that in order to close, they will be the wrath of Trump, and therefore his voters. Red states cases are increasing dramatically, because overall they opened up much faster because that's the direction they've gotten from the federal position. If I were to bet on ANY states fully closing again (before election), I would bet against it. Public outcry is too strong to remain open, regardless of health concerns, number of cases, etc. Blue states still haven't fully opened (at least not most) and continue to see drops in cases. For that reason, I don't think most of them will re-open fully for awhile, and will keep things like mandatory masks, etc. as part of their policy going forward until it's over. I don't care how bad it gets, I honestly don't think any state, especially a red state/swing state will shut down again. And the only way the market tanks again is if the whole nation shuts down again, which there will not be enough public support for because it's already been done.
I keep hearing about the possibility of state closures, i know the decision will ultimately be up the states themselves, but last i heard from the trump administration, was that if we surged again they would not shut down.
I truly hope we don't get to this point, but I truly believe if we get as bad as Italy was we will shut down again. Those poor people were completely overwhelmed. There were stories of dead family members in the home for days because they were so overwhelmed by the disease.
I`m just sittin at cash and on vacation on the gulf coast. Everywhere we have been is fully booked and crowded with people. I know several people that are traveling all over the country on vacation also. We`ll see what happens but the next economic data we see might just be through the roof on recovery and we are not shutting down the economy again of anymore than say 10%. So I am not willing to risk a short now.
