The Long Term Investor

Good post B Russ, some lessons in there. I corrected a TYPO on that post you quote. It should read........

".....how often did we hear THAT about Amazon, Apple, Google, etc, etc, over the years leading up to them becoming dominant, semi-mature companies."

AND.....not related to the B Russ post......lets not get too carried away with TESLA. I am NOT recommending this stock to anyone. My position is TINY. I went through their financials for the past ten years in great detail. About 50/50 good versus bad in those numbers. I can ignore the bad stuff as being symptomatic of a fast growing young company. BUT....my position is likely to remain where it is right now.......TINY......for a good length of time. As I said by owning the company I will pay more attention to it since I am dealing with "real money" on the line.

 

By the way.....here is the online site (Macrotrends.net) that I used for my review of the TESLA financial data. I like this site. The links below are for the opening home page of the site and the page for the Tesla data. For example, if you look at the TESLA page you will see how they set up the data. Click on all the various tabs and you will get much information. Clicking on a tab will take you to a more specific data page with additional tabs for more specific data. The tab for "financials" will give the quarterly and annual financials. The other various tabs give nice summary data of various little components of data.

Home page for Macrotrends:

Macrotrends - The Premier Research Platform for Long Term Investors

https://www.macrotrends.net/

Tesla data on Macrotrends:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/financial-statements

I am IGNORING the markets today........BLAH.......fear driven.......day today as is typical lately. Just part of the current market reality for the short term. I dont expect much change in this sort of "stuff" till after the election and especially until we get a virus vaccine or the media is distracted onto some other issue.

 

Good luck....CULT.

See......I am NOT a market timer. I believe in the academic research that shows that trying to time in and out of the market will NOT beat an all in all the time long term investor. I dont try in the slightest to avoid market corrections......even nasty corrections.

As to TESLA......I dont care if I lose something over the short term. I am looking at the VERY long term. The position that I bought is very small........for me. I am NOT looking to trade this stock or make a short term profit. I am looking simply at long term potential.........I dont care about now or a year from now.....I care about 5, 10, 15, 20 years from now. I will handle this stock the same way I handle every YOUNG GROWTH stock. I buy a small number of shares and over the years..........if it is justified..........I will add more and more to the position as I see the company fulfilling its promise. If buying more is not justified I will NOT buy more shares.

As to this being a market high for TESLA.....perhaps....for a while.......perhaps not. I will let the market randomly determine that. With a small position like mine the.........potential...........for short term loss that I see is 20% or about $2000 in one account and about $1600 in the other account. Even if there is a short term loss of 40%.......on 8 shares or 10 shares......PEANUTS.

I dont try to GUESS short term market direction. I also have no interest in trading. For me.......long term is probably more than most people ever imagine when it comes to investing.

 

BEST I can say about today is.........I will take my beat of the SP500 by .7% and see what happens tomorrow.

 

I have NO INTENT to focus on TESLA in this thread....personally. Others are free to discuss as much or often as you wish.

BUT....I will say.....I happened to drive past the primary site being discussed as the site for a TESLA factory here in Texas. It is a DREAM location. About 2100 acres. Thousands of additional commercial/manufacturing acres bordering on the site that are at this point empty and available to build. The roads and other infrastructure to this area have gone in over the past few years. About 3 miles from the Austin International Airport. About 15-20 miles from downtown Austin. On one side of the property is a large city electrical generating plant and a large sewer plant. HUGE power lines already run all along one side of the property from the power plant. Highway 130 runs along one side of the property. This is an 80mph road that runs from San Antonio to Waco and beyond, intended to be used by trucks and other traffic to bypass Austin. About ten miles down 130 is the Austin Business airport for private jets. Highway 130 links suburban affordable housing areas in Round Rock, Pflugerville, Hutto, and other areas to the East, directly to the site without having to drive in the awful Austin traffic. Very few people currently live in that area. The location has direct, easy, freeway routes to Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Austin, etc, etc. I would call it a definite DREAM site for what they plan to do.

People need to GET OVER the constant media fear mongering and get on with their lives. IMAGINE if you saw constant daily media headlines EVERY DAY.....EVERY TIME......someone died of a stroke, cancer, or heart attack or all the other NORMAL causes of death that TOTALLY ECLIPSE the virus data.......after all these are ALL diseases too, just like the virus. Take all the relentless MEDIA harping about the virus and substitute any of those LEADING causes of death of Americans every day......year in and year out. GUESS WHAT.......no one cares about those diseases that are FAR MORE LIKELY to KILL YOU. We have better treatment experience now for the virus. The VAST number of deaths are still in the very elderly, impaired, nursing home population. Many of the new cases are being found by testing in YOUNG people with little to no symptoms. Even with the increase, deaths are NOT rising proportionately. Many health professionals are seeing a reduction in the severity of the virus. OUR deaths per million are NOT increasing and are NOT higher than the rest of the Western world, in fact we are lower than many many countries. AND of course......people are just TOO PLAIN DUMB......to remember back just a few months that the reason for the closing of the economy was NOT to end the virus but simply to buy time and hospital capacity which we have achieved. HIDE in your house a day, a month, a year and you will NOT avoid the virus.....when you come out it will STILL be there till we get herd immunity or a vaccine (PROBABLY in about 6 months) Etc, etc, etc, etc. DONT even get me started as to the fact that the ELECTION is driving MUCH of this media "stuff" and the total HYPOCRISY that we see on this topic EVERY DAY.

SO......the above is why I very rarely post or care about the virus anymore. It is SIMPLY IRRATIONAL behavior.

The markets are in a little fight today. Up.....down....up.....down.

 

AGREE TomB16.

I say often.....ALL INVESTING IS PERSONAL. EVERY person has to do what they believe is the right thing. YOU have to follow your own instincts, feelings, data......REALITY. That is the reason that this site and all the threads on here are a gold mine of information. MANY different views and approaches. This site is a MICRO-UINVERSE of human behavior and human thinking. That is a good thing.

The DOW at least continues to be in a KNIFE FIGHT today......no clear cut winner yet. The close is a TOTAL unknown today. LIFE is interesting.

 

Some truth in your post zukodany. It is ALL SEAT OF THE PANTS analysis......for the TV audience. At least TODAY the DOW and averages pulled a GOOD DAY out of the fire once again. As I have said over and over on here......today.....shows the strength of the markets and that the BIAS is DEFINITELY to the up-side,

For those that are interested.......OMG.....I have a loss on TESLA in one account of $149. and the other account of $190.

AND.....another random topic.....just like the RANDOMNESS of the short term stock markets and individual stocks and funds. ZUKODANY, you are in the middle of one of the HOTTEST collectable markets there is.....comic books. We are very early in the comic collecting craze since many of those driving the business are in their 20's and 30's and 40's. A very very lucrative business.

I will be attending an auction this weekend at a regional auction house. Like you are seeing Zukodany....it appears that collectors of many different "things".........including the type of art that I collect.........have been doing a lot of buying during the last three months. We bought one picture in a private sale last month and anticipate buying another at the upcoming auction. Like comic books.......in buying the sort of art that we focus on........best possible quality is the way to go. Prices on the best works are VERY STRONG.

ALL good in my personal accounts today.........MUCH GREEN. In addition a MINIMAL beat of the SP500 by 0.01%......that is about as MINIMAL as you can get.

 

If you want a PREVIEW of second quarter earnings here it is. Nike reported earnings today that cover the time of the lock-down:

Nike reports unexpected loss as sales tumble 38%, shares fall

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/nike-nke-reports-q4-2020-earnings.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consideer important content)

"Key Points

• Nike reported an unexpected quarterly net loss and a sales decline of 38% year-over-year.
• Digital sales soared 75%, representing about 30% of total revenue, as shoppers flocked to Nike’s website for sneakers and workout gear.
• But expenses for shipping and returns also put more pressure on the company’s profits. Nike’s margins during its fiscal fourth quarter shrank to 37.3% from 45.5% a year ago.

Even Nike, often lauded as one of the strongest global brands in the retail industry, is taking a hit from the coronavirus pandemic.

The Portland, Oregon-based sneaker maker on Thursday reported an unexpected quarterly net loss and a sales decline of 38% year-over-year, as its business was hurt from its stores being shut temporarily, and online revenue was not enough to make up for that.

Its inventories also piled up, weighing on profits, as its wholesale partners such as department stores also had their shops shut and took in fewer orders for shoes and clothes.

Nike shares were recently down around 4% in after-hours trading.

Here’s how Nike did during its fiscal fourth quarter:

• Loss per share: 51 cents
• Revenue: $6.31 billion

Nike reported a loss of $790 million, or 51 cents per share, during the period ended May 31, compared with net income of $989 million, or earnings of 62 cents a share, a year ago.

Total revenue was down 38% to $6.31 billion from $10.18 billion a year ago. Sales in North America were down 46%, while sales in China were down just 3%, with many of Nike’s stores in that region reopening sooner during the pandemic than in the U.S.

Sales at the Converse brand dropped 38%. For the Nike brand, footwear sales fell 35%, apparel was down 42% and equipment revenue tumbled 53%, as sports and many recreational activities have largely been put on hold due to the Covid-19 crisis.

Digital sales soared 75%, representing about 30% of total revenue, as shoppers flocked to Nike’s website for sneakers and workout gear. The company had previously set a goal to reach 30% digital penetration by 2023. But that timeline was accelerated rapidly because of the pandemic. Now, the company said it is targeting its e-commerce sales accounting for 50% of overall sales “in the foreseeable future.”

But expenses for shipping and returns also put more pressure on the company’s profits. Nike’s margins during its fiscal fourth quarter shrank to 37.3% from 45.5% a year ago.

Analysts were calling for the company to report earnings of 7 cents per share on revenue of $7.32 billion, according to Refinitiv data. However, impact from the coronavirus pandemic makes it difficult to compare the company’s results to analysts’ estimates.

“We are continuing to invest in our biggest opportunities, including a more connected digital marketplace,” Chief Executive John Donahoe said in a statement.

During a call with analysts, he went on to explain that Nike will make its online business more “central” to everything the company does, and that Nike will invest in opening additional smaller-format stores that are meant for customers to do things such as pick up their online orders. It said it will open about 150 such locations globally.

“Consumers want modern, seamless experiences, online-to-offline, so we’re accelerating our approach,” Donahoe said on the call.

Nike said its inventories as of May 31 amounted to $7.4 billion, up 31% from a year ago. The company said the increase was due, in part, to it shipping less merchandise to its wholesale partners because of the pandemic.

Nike said product shipments to wholesale customers were down nearly 50% during the quarter.

As of Thursday, Nike said roughly 90% of its owned stores are back open globally. In China, almost all of its owned stores are reopened. About 85% are open again in North America.

According to CEO Donahoe, Nike’s digital business is up triple digits, so far, in June. Bricks-and-mortar retail traffic remains below prior-year levels, he said."

Nike is not offering a complete fiscal 2021 outlook at this time. But Donahoe said revenue should be flat-to-up compared with the prior year.

As of Thursday’s market close, Nike shares are down less than 1% this year. The stock is up about 22% from a year ago. Nike is valued at $157.7 billion.

MY COMMENT

NOT too bad considering. HOW in the world any.......so called.........analyst could have any estimate at all during this economic closure is beyond me. Shows the INSANITY of the ANALYST system and the oversized power that they have in the short term. LOOKS to me like the company is quickly figuring out how to do business during this little event and what they learn will make them a MUCH STRONGER.......MORE DOMINANT.....company when we get things fully reopened.

HERE is one take on the earnings:

Nike earnings: Trader sees stock headed higher after quarterly disappointment

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/nike-earnings-trader-sees-stock-headed-higher-after-report.html

"Nike shares fell more than 3% after hours Thursday following earnings.

The footwear maker reported a surprise earnings loss of 51 cents a share, falling short of estimates by 54 cents. Revenue declined 38% to $6.31 billion, also short expectations.

Ascent Wealth Partners’ managing director Todd Gordon said he was bullish on the stock ahead of the earnings report Thursday.

“We think Nike is a good indication of future sales in China and how the Chinese consumer is doing in general,” Gordon told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” earlier Thursday. In its February-ended quarter, “Nike stated they reopened 80% of the stores following Covid, and with all the shutdowns in domestic and retail sales locations, they’ve done a good job transferring to the e-commerce sales.”

Gordon expects Nike to strengthen its e-commerce platform. Nike Direct, its online sales segment, generated nearly 32% of total revenue in 2019 and is expected to grow to 35% in 2020. The company reported a 75% increase in digital sales in its May-ended quarter.

That shift to e-commerce has paid off for Nike shares.

“If you look at the long-term beautiful uptrend here, you can see that we had obviously a little bit of volatility along with our broader market during COVID. We’ve since recaptured all of the losses, resting just below the $105 area, which any kind of push would certainly send momentum breakout buyers into the market,” said Gordon.

To take advantage of a move higher, Gordon is buying the 105 call and selling the 110 call with Aug. 21 expiration. This is a bet Nike can rally as high as $110 by expiration. It closed at $101.40 on Thursday."

 

As a LONG TERM INVESTOR......this is what I consider the actual news today that matters:

Consumer spending jumps record 8.2% in May as economy reopens, unemployment benefits surge

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...eopens-unemployment-benefits-surge-2020-06-26

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The numbers: Consumer spending leaped a record 8.2% in May to mark the first increase since the coronavirus pandemic drubbed the economy, but fading government stimulus payments, still-high unemployment and a fresh viral outbreak are likely to muzzle similarly large gains in the months ahead.

The increase in spending fell short of the 10% forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch.


The reopening of business activity in May in several states released a barrage of pentup demand as Americans were able to get out and about for the first time in several months.

What also allowed them to spend more were generous unemployment benefits, a federal loan program to encourage small businesses to keep paying workers, and onetime stimulus checks for most families.

Spending is unlikely to continue to increase rapidly as the summer wears on, though.

For one thing, incomes remained depressed with tens of millions of people still out of work. They sank 4.2% last month, reflecting mass unemployment and receding federal aid after a big flush of financial relief in April.

Another wave of coronavirus cases, what’s more, is causing some states to hit the pause button on reopening their economies and deterring people from leaving their homes.

What Happened: Americans spent more on a variety of goods and services such as new cars, clothes, recreation and even eating out. Spending on health care also increased.

The increase in outlays was fueled by massive government financial aid. Unemployment-compensation payouts, for example, nearly tripled as tens of millions of people lost their jobs. More employees returning to work after a brief hiatus also led to a small increase in wages and salaries.

The savings rate, after soaring early in the pandemic as Americans hoarded their cash, fell to 23.2% from 32.2%. Before the pandemic savings averaged around 7% a month.

Inflation barely rose in May, up just 0.1% as expected

The rate of inflation as measured by the PCE price index slipped to 0.5% in the past 12 months from 0.6% in the prior month — well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The rate of inflation has fallen sharply during the pandemic.

Another measure of inflation that strips out food and energy, known as the core rate, also rose 0.1% last month. It’s up only 1% in the past year, unchanged from the prior month.

The devastation caused by the coronavirus epidemic has forced many companies to cut prices to try to drum up sales, especially in industries such as travel that have been the hardest hit. Analysts predict inflation will remain low until the economy recovers despite all the trillions of dollars spent by the government to prop it up.

Big picture: The economy turned the corner in May after the sharpest and fastest downturn in U.S. history, but further progress in recovering from the pandemic is likely to come much slower.

Millions of Americans remain out of work, businesses are struggling to back to normal and the U.S. simply doesn’t need as many employees with the domestic and global economies mired in a deep slump.

Economists say the government will likely have to provide more money to families and businesses to maintain the recent momentum. If federal aid dries up, the economy could suffer another setback.

What they are saying? “Consumer spending sprung back to life in May as the nation reopened. But, don’t be fooled, the rebound was only partial and largely supported by April’s massive fiscal stimulus injection,” Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour of Oxford Economics told clients. “Consumers are still fearful.”

“The rebound in May spending alongside substantial income support is encouraging, but the outlook now will be guided by how quickly the nation can suppress the recent flare-up in infections,” said senior economist Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets."

AND

Consumer sentiment slips in late June as confidence in U.S. economic policies slumps to Trump-era low

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...c-policies-slumps-to-trump-era-low-2020-06-26

"The numbers: Americans turned slightly more cautious about how quickly the economy will recover from the coronavirus in late June as confidence in Washington’s policies fell to the lowest level during the Trump presidency, according to a closely followed survey of consumer sentiment.

The final results of the consumer-sentiment survey in June slipped to 78.1 from an initial 78.9, the University of Michigan said Friday.

What happened: Consumers don’t think the economy can get much worse, but they are unsure how long it will take for the U.S. to return to normal.

The reopening of the economy helped buoy spirits in May and early June, but a recent rise in cases, especially in the South, could end up being a setback. The South was the first region to reopen.

Consumer sentiment barely rose in the South in June, whereas it soared in the Northeast “with residents apparently expecting the later and more gradual reopening to produce at worst a negligible increase in infections,” said Richard Curtin, the chief economist of the sentiment survey.

Consumers also expressed more pessimism over Washington’s ability to help. Confidence in Washington’s economic policies fell to the lowest level since President Trump took office in January 2017.

Big picture: The cautious optimism about an economy recovery last month could soon give way to more unease if a new explosion in coronavirus cases is not brought under control. The disease is spreading more rapidly in the South and parts of the West even as it slows in the harder hit Northeast.

Most economists predict a choppy recovery and uneven growth as the nation searches for ways to allow businesses, schools and other entities to safely reopen. Unemployment is likely to remain high for at least the next year.

What they are saying? “The report notes that sentiment is more closely tied to the coronavirus,” said chief economist Scott Brown of Raymond James. “The recent increase in reported cases of COVID-19 should reduce sentiment in July, but you could have probably guessed that already.”

MY COMMENT

I INTENTIONALLY avoided all the BIAS and personal opinions of the writers in these articles. A VERY difficult......if not impossible.....thing these days with the DISMAL state of journalism. The second article......particularly......can NOT avoid the temptation to being in politics. I LOVE all the various statements in these articles like the one below:

"the sharpest and fastest downturn in U.S. history,"

DUH.......you think? AND......NO this is not a downturn....this is the intentional and voluntary act of a country shutting down its own economy in a historic......first time ever......move.

I think it is interesting that the savings rate has skyrocketed off the charts during this closure. People seem to be getting money to save from somewhere. I ALSO......LOVE......the typical citation in these sorts of articles to the usual IDIOTIC survey of economists and what they expected. YEAH RIGHT.....as though any of them have any experience AT ALL with a country committing economic suicide. BUT.....they are "experts"......right?

The markets today are doing what you would expect. SO......I continue to be fully invested for the LONG TERM as usual. AND....I sit and watch the short term STUFF with little likelihood to be impressed or impacted by it in my investing plan or style.

 

TODAY........all RED.....every position. How could it be otherwise. Good thing it is the end of the week. We can regroup next week. AND.....to top off the week got my butt kicked by the SP500 today by 0.52%.