Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of July 13th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Pepsico 11:30 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams in event with Bank of England 2 p.m. Federal budget Tuesday Earnings: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Fastenal, Delta 6:00 a.m. NFIB small business survey 8:30 a.m. CPI 1:30 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 2:00 p.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard Wednesday Earnings: Goldman Sachs, United Healthcare, US Bancorp, PNC, Bank of NY Mellon, Infosys, Alcoa 8:30 a.m. Empire State survey 8:30 a.m. Import prices 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 11:45 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker 2:00 p.m Fed’s beige book Thursday Earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Trust Financial, Johnson and Johnson, Abbott Laboratories, PPG Industries, Taiwan Semiconductor, Domino’s Pizza 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey 8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey 10:00 a.m. Business inventories 10:00 a.m. NAHB survey 11:10 a.m. New York Fed’s Williams 12:30 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans 4:00 p.m. TIC data Friday Earnings: BlackRock, Ally Financial, Regions Financial, Citizens Financial, Kansas City Southern, LM Ericsson 8:30 a.m. Housing starts 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
Big-Tech Bid, Small-Caps Skid As Gold Hits 9 Year Highs On the week, Nasdaq has soared higher once again, notably divergent from the rest of the markets with Small Caps actually down on the week... Which has sent the ratio of Megacap-Tech to Small Caps back near a record high... Spot the odd market out (Chinese stock speculation re-erupted this week)... Source: Bloomberg Median US stocks continue to diverge significantly from the handful of megatech stocks driving the Nasdaq ever higher... Source: Bloomberg Notably Defensives and Cyclicals have rallied tick for tick higher since the European close yesterday - very unusual moving together... Source: Bloomberg And then there's TSLA - up from $1000 to $1500 in 7 days... And who's buying? TSLA's now as big as JPMorgan... and TSLA is now bigger than Ford + GM + BMW + Daimler + Volkswagen combined Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields touched a two month lows today... Source: Bloomberg Then ripped back higher with 5Y and 2Y unch on the week, the long-end still notably lower (and the curve flatter)... Source: Bloomberg The Dollar ended lower on the week, chopping around in a tight range... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos were all higher on the week, led by Ripple... Source: Bloomberg Copper was the week's high-flier as China erupted in speculative excess. Oil was down... Source: Bloomberg Big intraweek drop in WTI was bid back above $40... And gold clung to $1800... Spot Gold reached back to its highest since 2011... Finally, you have to laugh right... Bonds ain't buying it... Source: Bloomberg Because fun-durr-mentals... Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
Does a Weak First Six Months Mean Trouble? The wild ride of 2020 continues, with the S&P 500 Index down 20% in the first quarter and up 20% in the second quarter. Much like dropping a 20 dollar bill and picking it up, this doesn’t mean you are 20 dollars wealthier. Down 20% and then up 20% actually comes out to a 4% drop for the first half of the year. What does a negative first half of the year tell us? Turns out, gains could be hard to come by the second half of this year. “Although 2020 is like nothing we’ve seen before, the fact of the matter is a weak first half of the year could mean weaker than normal returns for the rest of the year,” according to LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. In fact, the S&P 500 had been higher in the first six months of the year a record nine consecutive years before being lower in 2020. Since 1950, there were 48 times when the first six months were higher and the rest of the year gained 77% of the time and added 5.8% on average those final six months. Compare that with when the first six months of the year were lower 21 times, the final six months were higher only 52% of the time and up only 1.2% on average. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, a move higher is quite likely after strength in the first six months of the year, while very modest gains could be in the cards if those first six months underwhelm. Earnings Season Lurks Fri, Jul 10, 2020 After a relatively quiet week for economic data and practically no earnings reports to speak of, the Q2 earnings season will kick off next week. Normally, earnings season starts quietly with just a handful of reports outside of the major banks, but next week will be relatively busy with some major players on the calendar. Things start off slowly with Pepsi (PEP) on Monday. Tuesday, we’ll get reports from Citigroup (C), Delta (DAL), Fastenal (FAST), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), all of whom are scheduled to report in the morning. Wednesday’s major reports include Goldman (GS), Progressive (PGR), and UnitedHealth (UNH) in the morning, while Alcoa (AA) will report in the afternoon. Thursday will be the busiest day of the week with too many stocks to list here, but Netflix (NFLX) will highlight the schedule of afternoon reports. Finally, Friday’s key reports include Blackrock (BLK) and State Street (STT). As far as analyst sentiment stands heading into the current earnings season, while we wouldn't go so far as to say that it has made a full 180-degree turn from last quarter's negative extremes, it has been close. Over the last four weeks, analysts have raised forecasts for 580 companies in the S&P 1500 and lowered forecasts for 419. That works out to a net of 161 or just under 11% of the index. Besides the S&P 1500, six sectors have positive revisions spreads, while just two are negative. Sectors with the most positive revisions spreads include Consumer Staples, Energy, and Technology, while the two sectors with negative spreads are Financials and Real Estate. Financials just can’t find any love these days. The "Miracle" Nasdaq 100 Thu, Jul 9, 2020 For anyone unfamiliar with the 1969 Miracle Mets, the "Amazins" were 10 games out of first place as late as mid-August and then went on to win 38 out of their last 49 games to finish in first place over the Cubs. From there, the Mets went on to win the first World Series in the history of the franchise in what at the time was one of the biggest turnarounds in the history of baseball. Ironically, in 2007, the Mets were on the other end of another historic turnaround after they blew a seven-game division lead with less than a month left in the season by losing 12 of their last 17 games. But that collapse is a story for another time. Like the Miracle Mets in 1969, the Nasdaq 100 in 2020 has also staged a historic turnaround. After trading up over 10% earlier in the year, the gains quickly evaporated with the COVID outbreak. Within two months, the Nasdaq 100 went from a YTD gain of over 10% to a decline of over 20% by late March. From there, though, the Nasdaq has gone on an epic run, not only erasing all of its losses but also trading to record highs and a gain of over 20% on the year. The frequency of positive days for the Nasdaq 100 provides another illustration of the index's strength this year. So far this year, the index has traded higher on 63% of all trading days. That may not sound like much, but if the year were to end today, it would be the highest percentage of positive days for a given year in the Nasdaq 100's history. On a side note, it's interesting to see in this chart how similar the percentage of positive days has been on a year to year basis over time. There has never been a year where fewer than 46% of all trading days have been positive, and prior to 2020, there has never been a year where more than 62% of all trading days were higher. China Charges Higher Thu, Jul 9, 2020 We've highlighted the run in Chinese equities quite a lot in the last several days, but it keeps getting more and more extreme. With a gain of over 1% overnight, China's CSI 300 not only turned in its eighth straight day of gains but also its eighth straight day of rallying more than 0.5%. In the history of the CSI 300 dating back to 2002, there has only been one other time where the CSI 300 saw eight or more straight daily gains of 0.5%. That was back in April 2007. If you don't remember what was going on with Chinese equities back in April 2007, take a look at the chart below. The last time the CSI 300 had a streak of 8+ days of 0.5% daily gains, the CSI had already doubled in the prior six months. From there, though, it went on to nearly double again in the next six months. Eventually the bubble burst, and it wasn't much more than a year later that the CSI 300 was back below where it was in April 2007. Gold Cup Wed, Jul 8, 2020 The gold ETF (GLD) has gone through a nine-year drought from new all-time highs, but as it gets closer to its prior highs from September 2011, there are three possible upcoming technical set-ups. The first would be a massive multi-year "cup and handle" pattern. You can see the "cup" that has been forming over the last nine years. For the "handle" to form, GLD would need to go into a sideways consolidation phase from here for a bit. Once that consolidation phase occurs, the pattern would suggest a significant leg higher over potentially years (rather than months). The second -- and more negative -- setup would be a bearish "double top." This would happen if GLD gets right up to its highs from September 2011 and fails to break through that resistance Finally, the third setup would simply be a breakout higher from here. GLD could simply continue moving higher and break right through resistance at its 2011 high. Regardless of what happens, the "cup" that has been forming for nearly a decade now is something you don't see often. It will be interesting to watch this pattern from a technical perspective over the next few months.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 7.10.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 7.10.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for July 10th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.12.20 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (7/13) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (7/13-7/17) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar- (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 7.13.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 7.13.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 7.14.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 7.14.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 7.15.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 7.15.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 7.16.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 7.16.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 7.17.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 7.17.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($JPM $PEP $NFLX $WFC $DAL $DPZ $C $BAC $UNH $JNJ $FAST $GS $ABT $FRC $TSM $PNC $ASML $USB $BK $BLK $MS $ERIC $WIT $ALLY $SON $INFY $AA $SCHW $TFC $ANGO $CFG $BMI $HOMB $ALV $RF $PGR $SNBR $STT $KSU $JBHT $WNS $KRUS $AMRB $MRTN) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning July 13th, 2020 <-- click there to view!
wow, just an amazing run with all the bad news. I'm all cash, just waiting for a dip, but it's not happening.
Depending on the size of the dip you're waiting for, it's gonna be awhile. If we break through 3233, there's no telling how high it goes before we see the next small dip. Probably some resistance at the gap-down level back in March at around 3257. Then there's room to run back to ATH's at 3378. I'm guessing we hold here or see a drop today before we make a meaningful move above 3233
Nasdaq in the red, and is the laggard index of the 3 majors. It has gone too far above the monthly Bollinger band imo.
