The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    most of the day was down. Nasdaq was red. The Dow Jones and S&P500 turning green at the end Screenshot_2020-08-07-16-07-02_kindlephoto-576710415.png Screenshot_20200730-235845_Chrome.jpg was totally nuts.
    Screenshot_2020-08-07-16-07-02_kindlephoto-576710415.png Screenshot_20200730-235845_Chrome.jpg
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Zukodany

    That is a good thing that your agent called BEFORE you invested the money. Although it is easy to buy some stock and than resell if necessary in just a few days. You are a businessman and understand the business of commercial property management and use. If the property fits what you are looking for....nothing wrong with changing directions....again.

    It is weird how that seems to happen. I have had the same thing happen a few times. I get focused on making something happen and put in the effort, but just cant seen to get there. Than when I resign myself to do something else......BOOM.....out of the blue the opportunity to do what I was trying so hard to do happens.

    Main thing is to do what is right for you and your family.
     
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  3. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Glad you're not sick. Covid really wrecked havoc in NY.
     
  4. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Thanks again for the words of wisdom WXYZ.
    And yes thank god we didn’t get the covid...

    ... Or the flu every year..... or cancer (NYC is ranked as one of the highest population with cancer in America).....

    I did get involved in a minor car accident a couple of months ago, but hey, it’s not covid so I didn’t see fit to advertise it anywhere.

    Covid really didn’t cause us any problems, and we didn’t lose much sleep over it truthfully. But Ill tell ya what did...
    A few places opened down the block from us which are now functioning as active shelters for inmates from Rikers, we’ve already experienced a few burglaries and sex offender violations are an every day thing now. Also the riots.. sorry.. the peaceful protests, were down the block from us for weeks and were causing us and many many peaceful residents sleepless nights and anxiety... Sadly, some businesses close to us were affected by those peaceful riots and are now closed for business indefinitely.
    And finally the dreadful moratorium on evictions which was imposed on our business as well as many in the land, were cause for much concerned with some who took advantage of this condition and took us for a financial ride actually till this very day.
    Yes I am very very lucky to live here in NY and NOT experience many many health and mental risks which sadly did hit home with many of my peers and friends.
    Ok, now that I got that off my back, here’s some more news I wanted to share with you which seem really big to me.
    As an active seller on eBay I wanted to share something with you which seems like big news to me; for many many years, decades, eBay used to rely only on ONE source of monetary exchange through their platform - PayPal.
    Well, for the past year now they have been transitioning out of that method of currency exchange and have now FULLY implemented their “Ebay Payment System” into their platform.
    So for the first time in history, I woke up in the morning yesterday and saw that even though I sold a few hundred dollars worth of items on eBay - no money was placed into my linked PayPal account. Instead it now sits in my new eBay account waiting to be transferred to my linked bank account.
    And that got me to think....
    How much of a hit will PayPal take from this?????
    I mean, like me, there are tens of thousands (hundreds?) who transact on eBay daily and are now migrated to this new payment disbursement system, and even though PayPal is still allowed in their system, it is used less and less and is no more the ONLY payment system on eBay.
    Through the years PayPal became a bigger company than eBay and grew independent of them, so it’s not like PayPal is gonna collapse from this, but it certainly WILL TAKE a hit.
     
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting, zukodany.

    I sell the odd thing on eBay but didnt realize EPS was going to change the way PP processing works. Thanks for the tip.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YOU are right Zukodany.......I have done hundreds of deals on eBay and have used PayPal for all of them. Potentially a BIG future income source for eBay and perhaps a BIG hit to PayPal. A good observation that could be translated into a few different stock plays. Once eBay gets some experience with their payment system on eBay.....they might transition to being a competitor with PayPal on non eBay transactions.
     
  7. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    I am probably one of the younger people on this thread and I actively follow politics. The Democratic Party is the socialist party now. Even if they lose this year, they are going to win at some point in the future and will continue to push our country left in to the eternal hell scape that is socialism / communism. I just can’t believe what the Democrats stand for these days. They support silencing their political opponents and are acting like the CCP (of course who they support). The “pandemic” has exacerbated the true colors of the left with their power grabs. For example, I live in Nevada and I haven’t been able to go to church since March because our ward is limited to 50 people total while the casinos and every other business is 50% capacity. We could easily fit our entire ward in our building but the idiot governor has decided to attack religion. Luckily, we are starting to go once a month this month by splitting our services into 5 different time sessions of 50 people.

    I am very conservative and have in the past viewed myself more libertarian but have leaned back to conservative.

    Sometimes I want to just see what would happen if the socialists grabbed power and just sat back to watch it burn. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want that to happen at all, but I think it would be entertaining in a scared for your future type of way.

    Anyways, I will leave politics discussions for elsewhere so we can focus on more important topics, aka making money.
     
  8. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    Also, I have an interesting opportunity possible for investing. I have mentioned that I work at a CPA firm (and technically I am not a CPA yet, but I get my license next month!!!). Some of the partners own a minority share in a gas station. They have found a possible new plot of land with one of our clients who is a land developer and we have another client is very successful at developing gas stations and running them. Anyways, they have offered to let me buy in to their next project (if it goes forward) with a small stake. They anticipate investing 50k each but told me I can probably get in for less for a smaller position. It’s an interesting idea, but would mean less buying stock for a while.
     
  9. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    I signed up to eBay in 99. Sold alot of shtuff over the years. PayPal by X.com was new then and offering $10 for signups. As a server operator with many domains to my name, well, they only required an email address to signup.

    Sorry, got off track.

    PayPal was the only option short of, egads, a physical check. So PayPal became the standard for transactions on eBay, and eventually Elon sold it to eBay for a tidy sum. (Elon has since recovered the x.com domain from PayPal for some monies or something.)

    But honestly, markets must provide multiple payment options to convert more views into sales. So it had to be split off.

    What was the question again? Oh right, there wasn't one. Sorry for the drift in this thread.

    Edit to add: correction, I think Elon had already been drummed out by then.
     
    #1769 The Brontide, Aug 9, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2020
  10. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    When eBay was still a lawless frontier, not me, a guy I know, downloaded porn and sold "all regions" DVD copies around the world. Funny how much Japanese porn was sent back to Japan.

    Screenshot_20200808-164451.png Screenshot_20200808-164021.png
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    JWalker.......that private deal might be a good opportunity. In my former life as a business owner........I knew a few CPA's that made a TON (term of art) of money being allowed to participate in deals with very wealthy clients. One in the utility business the other in the banking business.
     
    Jwalker likes this.
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A total conspiracy of STUPIDITY. I have been searching for the Job Openings number for the past 35 minutes. It came out at 10 Eastern time. Under a general search, under "news", under "finance. ALL the financial sites, etc, etc, etc. The ONLY place that I found that news just about 30 seconds ago.......FINALLY.......was BURIED DEEP on Bloomberg.

    Job Openings in U.S. Unexpectedly Rose in June, Hiring Solid

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ctedly-rose-in-june-hiring-solid?srnd=premium

    (Bold is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in June and hiring maintained a solid pace as state economies continued with reopening efforts.

    The number of available positions climbed to 5.89 million during the month from a revised 5.37 million in May, according to the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released Monday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 5.3 million openings. Openings that involve workers recalled from layoffs or positions that are only offered internally are not counted in the figure.

    Hiring eased to 6.7 million in June from a record 7.2 million a month earlier. While hires edged down, they were still the second-largest on record."

    MY COMMENT

    PATHETIC. When I found this.......single.....article after searching everywhere.......the article and data was at least 25 minutes OLD. YET.....it was NOT being reported.........anywhere. WHY? YES.....you have to ask yourself why. ONE reason might be that the data is once again SUPREMELY POSITIVE......job openings increased the SECOND LARGEST AMOUNT........on record..........IN HISTORY. They climbed nearly 6 million.....blowing through the..........yes......the economists again.......predicted number by .59MILLION.

    There is something REALLY WRONG when you can NOT find this news on the internet. I do........imagine.....that the data would be reported EVERYWHERE with BLARING HEADLINES if the data was negative.

    The report above is EXTREMELY minimal and tries to spin the number as a negative with the comment that the number was down from May. HERE is the ONLY other article I am now seeing that just came up......finally.........through Reuters. They ALSO SPIN the data in a negative way.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa...remain-below-pre-pandemic-level-idUSL1N2FC0R2

    "U.S. job openings increased in June but remained below their pre-COVID-19 pandemic level, supporting the view that it could take the labor market years to absorb the tens of millions of unemployed people."

    A Google search........under "US jobs opening data for June"...... just 20 seconds ago produced NOTHING. The search page is full of bland crap about jobs that someone could apply for.
     
  13. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    Everyone is reacting to Trump's executive orders.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    To continue........there is a BIG PROBLEM........when this sort of data is NOT reported promptly. Or if it is reported a SEARCH will not turn up the data. I JUST did another search under "NEWS" and a general search. The ONLY additional article that comes up....searching news for......"June 2020 job openings and Labor Turnover Survey"......is in the Las Vegas Sun. I use GOOGLE as my search engine. We are now 45 minutes after release of this data.

    AND.......I am NOT talking about the general news sources......I am talking about Yahoo finance, Bloomberg, Reuters, Fox business, etc, etc, etc. This data is BURIED DEEP.

    JUST PATHETIC. The current FOCUS of the MEDIA on INNUENDO, GOSSIP, SOAP OPERA DRAMA, T&A, etc, etc, etc is simply PATHETIC. INVESTORS BEWARE.
     
  15. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    Partisan politics. Media reports what they want, when it makes their favored party look good.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    姑爺仔

    Could be......BUT the executive orders are very OLD news having occurred on Friday and being covered ALL weekend. In addition, I dont see much comment on them at this point in the financial media since they have been BEATEN like a dead horse all weekend.

    THIS.....is the data and information.....in general......that I believe is IMPORTANT........at least to me.......as a long term investor wanting to see how the general economy is acting.

    AT LEAST.....we have a good open today.....even if it seems WEAK and SHALLOW. How we end up by the end of the day is very much in doubt. We will have to live it to see how it all turns out. FORTUNATELY we are ONLY talking very short term.....about 5 hours till the close. AS ALWAYS.....what REALLY counts is the LONG TERM........NOT.......the day to day MARKET PORN that is pushed.

    I continue to be100% fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
    #1776 WXYZ, Aug 10, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2020
  17. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    Nothing significant occurred over the weekend. But people are buying.

    PSX_20200810_080255.jpg
     
    #1777 姑爺仔, Aug 10, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2020
  18. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Is this what you want?

    Screenshot_2020-08-10-08-20-19_kindlephoto-701885857.png
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I LIKE this little article very much. NOT for the STUFF about the FED and their inflation target. I dont give the FED any credence when it comes to allowing or not allowing inflation. Their target is meaningless and irrelevant to the real world. AS USUAL........I STILL believe there is NO problem with inflation and that we continue in a world environment of clear and.........perhaps......very dangerous DEFLATION. What I like about this article is the general economic discussion.

    The Federal Reserve’s New Inflation Target Redefines The Meaning Of Inflation

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnta...rget-is-insulting-and-backwards/#32513ee3709a

    BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "On February of 2015, ABC’s then smash-hit show Modern Family went rather experimental. Its creators filmed a full episode entirely on Apple iPads. Though this cash cow of a television franchise had access to the best of the best when it came to film equipment, the filming quality on iPads that could be had for several hundred dollars enabled the creation of what was one of the most watched shows in the world.

    Somewhere director Barry Sonnenfeld (“Get Shorty”, “Men In Black”, etc.) was smiling, along with seemingly every other film school student the world over. Sonnenfeld attended the highly prestigious New York University film school in the 1970s, and as he recalled in his excellent memoir (Barry Sonnenfeld, Call Your Mother) released earlier this year, very few student films were “taken all the way to print, since the cost of making one was substantial.” Not only was camera access a wildly costly concept well beyond the means of starving students (Sonnenfeld recalls how even non-student filmmakers would pursue “1 day” camera rentals ahead of three day weekends to stretch access…), there was the added cost of transforming what had been caught on film into something watchable. Life not too long ago was expensive and primitive.

    So what happened? Economic growth happened. Contrary to the musings of hopelessly confused economic theorists with PhDs next to their names, and who believe near unanimously that prosperity is a consequence of consumption, the actual truth is that growth springs from savings and investment. When people consume less of their incoming wealth denominated in dollars, the unspent wealth flows in the form of investment toward the creation of all new products and services that were previously unimaginable.

    For film students of the present, the technology that they bring to school in their pockets puts them in a position to do what those who came before them only dreamed of. The “student film” can now be very high quality at very low cost assuming the person holding the camera has talent.

    Sonnenfeld’s memories rate mention ahead of the latest news from the Federal Reserve. Endlessly searching for relevance as market forces continue to push it toward obsolescence, top Fed officials made it known to the Wall Street Journal last week that they would no longer make 2 percent inflation their target. Of the belief that the target limited their ability to centrally plan economic growth, Fed officials decided to abandon it.

    Let’s unpack this clown show for a bit.

    If we accept without protest the Fed’s definition of inflation, it should be said that even when the target was 2 percent that the central bank had made it policy to double the price level every 36 years. That’s not very fair to savers. They save money now in the hope that the monies saved will exchange for abundant goods and services in the future. The Fed, if we once again accept its inflation definition, has long made it known that it would rob from savers and investors the single greatest factor when it comes to abundant retirement: time.

    Fast forward to the present, this same central bank is now saying that 2 percent isn’t enough, that the Fed will deprive savers and investors even more of the time that pairs with compound interest on the way to potential retirement in comfort. Is it any wonder that the commoners have such a low view of the political class, along with the institutions created and deified by the political class? Time is the best friend of the saver and investor, but the Fed has inflation targets it must adhere to, or not adhere to. Don’t you get it?

    Thinking about investors, they are yet again the creators of progress. Their abstinence builds the capital base necessary for entrepreneurs to bring a much less expensive future into the present. Savings have once again made it possible for the “student film” to actually be made, and a major driver of the latter has been investor comfort that any investment returns won over time will actually flow out dollars that have maintained their exchangeable value. Except that the Fed disagrees.

    Even though all companies, jobs and lower prices born of progress are a consequence of investment, the Fed’s explicit aim is to make investment riskier than it already is. If long-term returns are going to pay out dollars exchangeable for less, why pursue long-term returns? This is something Fed officials never answer, or presumably even contemplate in their stupor.

    Defending the PhDs just a little, their definition of inflation isn’t currency devaluation. Much as people want to believe differently, and much as they write differently, the Fed doesn’t control the value of the dollar. It never has. This is important when it’s remembered that the traditional definition of inflation has long been a decline of the unit of measure that is money. Translated, inflation has long been defined by the purchasing power of a currency declining.

    The problem is that Fed economists (and economists well outside of the central bank) believe that economic growth is evidence of, or the cause of inflation. Except that it isn’t.

    Economic growth is born of productivity advances, and as the Sonnenfeld example makes plain, feverish investment in technological advance has made exponentially more film production at a fraction of the cost much more of a reality. The previous truth can be extrapolated across all manner of industries. In modern times, and thanks to past abstinence that fostered investment, our ability to produce a great deal more at costs that continue to plummet has soared.

    In short, the Fed is pursuing an inflation target that in a theoretical sense insults and subdues the very investment that powers economic growth. The central bank is doing this based on a theory about inflation that says economic growth causes prices to rise. No, economic growth is the biggest enemy rising prices have ever known. The Fed’s inflation definition is insulting and backwards.

    MY COMMENT

    I DO strongly believe in the bolded content above discussing the relationship between investing, saving, and the economy. WHEN.......inflation does return it is likely to be the direct result of government meddling in the economy. The......often accepted.....belief that government spending is economic stimulus if WRONG and very dangerous to the economy. It is FREE, PRIVATE, savers and investors that drive the economy and act as economic stimulus.

    In other words it is......."WE".......all the investors on this board and all over the country that are the REAL drivers of the economy and private business. It is NOT the FED, it is NOT government.

    I will ADD.........it is NOT government taking money from business and people through taxes and spending that money on the STUFF that government spends money on that creates economic success. It is business and people earning, and saving, and investing their OWN money that creates a successful economy. However you want to package it.....government politicians and bureaucrats have NO CLUE how or what creates a REAL prosperous economy. CENTRAL PLANING of the economy for the long term or trying to micro-manage short term economic events by government is a TOTAL WASTE.
     
    #1779 WXYZ, Aug 10, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2020
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Thank you A55.....yes. BUT I did find it earlier.....my point is no one in the media even cared to report it.

    EDIT....I just looked at what A55 posted. That is the data that was released last Friday. NOT the data that was released today that everyone ignored. NOW for comparison the same data when released for May was reported everywhere. What was released today was the June 2020 "Job Openings and Labor Survey" data.
     
    #1780 WXYZ, Aug 10, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2020

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