Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 10th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Marriott, Simon Property Group, Occidental Petroleum, Liberty Media, Tilray, IAC/InterActive, International Flavors and Fragrances, Canopy Growth, SeaWorld, Barrick Gold, Duke Energy, Royal Caribbean, DoYou 10:00 a.m. JOLTS 4 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Tuesday Earnings: SoftBank, BioNTech, Sysco, Casper Sleep, Canada Goose, Super Micro, Viavi Solutions, Vir Biotechnology 6:00 a.m. NFIB survey 6:30 a.m. PPI Wednesday Earnings: Cisco Systems, Lyft, Brinker International, SmileDirectClub, Fossil, Vroom, Performance Food 8:30 a.m. CPI 10:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren 11:00 a.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan 2:00 p.m. Federal budget Thursday Earnings: Tapestry, Applied Materials, Brookfield Asset Management, NetEase, Azek 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Import prices Friday 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Business inventories
Tech Tumbles Into Weekend, Copper Crumbles As Silver Soars While stocks soared on the week (led by Small Caps' best week in two months)... Today's "good" news on jobs (spoiling the odds of more imminent money-printing) and stimulus plan delays (again less money to be thrown around) sparked the biggest drop in Nasdaq in almost 3 weeks... Schumer said today's meeting was "disappointing" and that sent stocks lower in the last hour, then Mnuchin said Trump would do an Executive Order and stocks rose pushing the Dow and S&P (barely) green on the day... Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg "Someone turn the machines back on!!!" Amid the biggest weekly short-squeeze in two months... Source: Bloomberg After more than a week of decoupling, bond yields and stock prices converged a little today... Source: Bloomberg Treasuries were sold today, sending yields positive for the week... Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields remain stuck at or near record lows... Source: Bloomberg The dollar ended the week basically unchanged after an early roller-coaster... Source: Bloomberg Offshore Yuan was hit on US sanctions today... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos were mixed on the week, Ripple and Ethereum gained notably (despite today's weakness), Bitcoin was up very modestly and Litecoin And Bitcoin Cash were red.. Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin managed to recover the losses from last weekend's flash-crash... only to flash-crash (smaller) today... Source: Bloomberg As Ethereum hit $400 and was immediately slammed... Source: Bloomberg On the week, silver soared as copper was clubbed like a baby seal today... Source: Bloomberg Gold futures fell today but remain above $2,000... The gold-silver ratio crashed below 70x this week - its lowest since April 2017... Source: Bloomberg But still a long way to go its 60x average level... Copper diverged dramatically from stocks (what does Dr.Copper know?), suffering its worst week since March... Source: Bloomberg Finally, we note that one thing is in great demand. The physical gold premium over futures prices spiked to its highest since 2014... Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
Individual Investors Still Don't Believe Thu, Aug 6, 2020 As mentioned in a prior post, in the past week the S&P 500 has moved within 2% of its 2/19 high, but at the same time, less than a quarter of AAII respondents are optimistic for the future of stocks over the next six months. That begs the question- if there have been past times that sentiment and price action have been so detached from one another. Since the start of the AAII survey in 1987, there have been 10 periods (including the current one) in which the S&P 500 was within 2% of an all-time high but bullish sentiment was less than 25% without another occurrence in the prior three months. The most recent prior occurrence was not even a full year ago. Back in October, sentiment was only slightly higher as the S&P 500 was 1.84% from its all-time high. Prior to that, there were some scattered instances throughout 2013, 2015, and 2016 but before that, you would have to go back to 1993 to find another similar period. The one occurrence in 2013 stands out as it was both the lowest sentiment reading of these prior occurrences and the only one that occurred with the S&P 500 right at an all-time high. As for where things stand after such instances, sentiment has tended to reverse higher in the following six months as the S&P 500 has tended to move higher. The S&P 500 has actually tended towards better than average returns over the next three months, although performance six months out has been modestly worse than average, even as it has been higher more often than not. Additionally, as shown in the second chart below, of the more recent occurrences of the past decade, they haven't marked any major top or bottom for the S&P 500 with occurrences clustered both coming off of lows and in the middle of longer-term uptrends. Silver Takes the Gold Thu, Aug 6, 2020 Gold and silver prices were already on a tear heading into this week, but they've only seen their gains accelerate even more. With more than a day and a half of trading left in the week, front-month gold futures have rallied, but silver has been the real show stopper with a gain of 16%! Taking a look at a one-year chart of silver over the last year, things have really gone parabolic this week as the front-month futures contract is trading more than 40% above its 50-day moving average (DMA) and 62% above its 200-DMA. Were it not for the move in silver, gold's move would be getting all the attention. Prices for gold have also seen a major surge in the last month, rising from under $1,800 to the current level of $2,060 per ounce. While not as extended as silver, gold currently trades 14% above its 50-DMA and 26% above its 200-DMA. With gold 25.7% above its 200-DMA and silver 62.2% above, the average spread of the two commodities currently stands at 44.3%. In the 40+ year history of the two futures contracts, there have only been a handful of prior periods where the average spread of the two commodities was larger or even above 35% for that matter with the most recent occurring back in early 2011. This recent rally in the two commodities has certainly been one for the ages. Big Moves Off 52-Week Lows Wed, Aug 5, 2020 Within the US equity market, we've seen some major moves in individual stocks off their 52-week lows over the last few months. Look at the table below. Within the Russell 1000, which tracks the performance of the largest companies in the US, stocks in the index are up an average of 87.6% from their respective 52-week lows. Looking at performance by individual sectors, stocks in the Energy sector are up an average of 136.8%, while the average Consumer Discretionary stock has rallied 131.4%. The Technology sector wasn't hit nearly as hard by the Covid-crash as other sectors, but stocks in the sector have doubled on an average basis relative to their 52-week lows. The only sector where stocks are up less than 50% on an average basis from their 52-week lows is Utilities at 46.33%. For many investors, the holy grail of stock picking is the proverbial ten-bagger. A ten-bagger is a stock that multiplies by ten times its original price. Usually, this happens over the span of years, but in the Covid-economy, we've actually seen a number of these ten-baggers play out in the span of months. While most of these examples are in the small-cap space, shares of Wayfair (W), which has a current market cap of $27.5 billion, have rallied from $21.70 on March 19th to its current price of $290.85 now. That's a gain of more than 1,200% in less than five months! Within the entire Russell 1,000, 257 stocks have at least doubled off their 52-week lows, and in the table below we highlight the 34 stocks that are at least a quarter of the way to the ten-bagger club and have rallied more than 250%. As mentioned above, W tops the list, but Fastly (FSLY), which has barely been public for a year, is just shy of the club with a gain of 992%. Behind FSLY, Livongo Health (LVGO) is up 855%. Given that LVGO just got a takeover offer from Teladoc (TDOC), the 11th best-performing stock on the list, it may only make the ten-bagger club under the banner of the TDOC ticker. In looking through the list of stocks shown, many of these names come from the Health Care, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary sectors and have been direct beneficiaries of the new Covid-economy. At the same time, six stocks from the Energy sector made the list as well as they recovered from their bombed-out levels after oil prices briefly traded in negative territory earlier this year. Labor Market Continues Summer Momentum After falling the most on record in April, the US labor market has rebounded with three consecutive months of job gains, adding back more than 9 million of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. In July, the economy added back nearly 1.8 million jobs, ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates for 1.5 million and lowering the unemployment rate from 11.1% to 10.2%, but lingering measurement issues could add 1% to that number, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, job gains were broad based across industries, with a third of the increase coming from the leisure and hospitality sector—the “scene of the accident” industries—while only information, and mining and logging posted declines in July. “March and April were historically brutal months for the labor market, but the labor market’s resiliency this summer has been a welcome development,” stated LPL Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “However, the next few months will be critical for the economy as schools reopen and additional fiscal stimulus still hangs in the balance.” The July report also comes on the heels of a rise in COVID-19 cases across the Sunbelt region of the United States. Because of the date of the survey, it may not fully reflect the economic impact of some of the more recent high-frequency data that has captured some of the effect of rising cases. Still, the jobs report shows that the US economy is continuing to heal despite the long road ahead. Are Recessions Good For Stocks? This isn’t like any recession we’ve ever seen, as it was sparked by a horrible pandemic and happened because people were told to stay inside. The impact was the worst contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) last quarter that anyone who is reading this has ever seen. But what is quite surprising is the fact the Nasdaq has made 30 all-time highs so far in 2020, while the S&P 500 Index has gained four consecutive months, all while the unemployment rate remains above 10%. Why is this happening? There are two main schools of thought. One is that stocks are forecasting a better economy later this year and into 2021; remember, stocks tend to lead the economy and could be doing so once again. Another school of thought is that the massive fiscal and monetary policy are boosting equity prices, while not helping the overall economy quite as much. Here’s the catch. It actually isn’t abnormal to see stocks gain during a recession. “This is one that might surprise many people, but stocks have actually gained during 7 of the past 12 recessions,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “There’s no question the difference between what is happening on Wall Street compared with Main Street is about as wide as we’ve ever seen, but maybe it shouldn’t be as big of a surprise that stocks have been strong.” As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 actually gained 1.3% on average when looking at the 12 previous recessions going back to World War II, with a very impressive median advance of 5.7% (the average is skewed lower due to 2008). We continue to expect this recession to end soon, if it isn’t over already. In fact, when the end of the recession is officially declared at a later date, we could have yet another recession that saw stock market gains.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 8.7.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 8.7.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for August 7th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.9.20 Video from ShadowTrader
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 8.10.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 8.10.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 8.11.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 8.11.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 8.12.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 8.12.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 8.13.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 8.13.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 8.14.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 8.14.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($NIO $MELI $CGC $WKHS $GOLD $RCL $DKNG $MAR $INO $CSCO $NVAX $TLRY $MARK $PRTK $JMIA $DUK $SPG $ON $HUYA $AMAT $SDC $OXY $GBDC $SEAS $ICPT $PRPL $LYFT $BIDU $SOHU $FOLD $CEVA $DOYU $SYY $SDGR $GOOS $TTOO $SOGO $TNK $NBEV $GRWG) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning August 10th, 2020 <-- click there to view!
Biotech is weak, but let's see if IBB firms up here as it pulls back to 133.60 which was the previous ATH from 5 years ago.
FDX up 8% and ULTA up 7%, pretty big move when the SPX is pretty much flat As for the SPX, who would have thought we are trading at almost ATH when we are in the middle of a pandemic and a recession
Looks like Russia has announced the first vaccine for widespread use for covid19 https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...2f8a54-d813-11ea-a788-2ce86ce81129_story.html
