HERE is a repeat of the portfolio model.......as usual: I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 55% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 45% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 10 stock portfolio. At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Honeywell Johnson & Johnson Nike 3M Microsoft Proctor & Gamble Tesla (small position) MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (70). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my eleven stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis.
SO......any new people........you have my portfolio model above and in THIS POST......taken from an OLD post...... you have some of my background so you can see......MY BIAS and WHERE I am coming from in this thread. In discussing investing.......CONTEXT is everything: "AS AN INTRODUCTION.......here is my investing background. When I have time I will tell a little about my CORE PORTFOLIO and investing strategy (listed in the first post) and how it has evolved over the decades. I have been investing since the 1950's. I started as a child. My mom, a housewife, was investing in mutual funds in the 1950's ($50 per month) at a time when very few AMERICAN households had any stock holdings in any form. It was the era of round lots, ticker tape, and small investment accounts were very difficult to open or trade. Even the number of mutual funds open to small investors was very limited. My mom started educating me about investing at about age 10 with my first stock purchase, AT&T. (I dont know if she actually had it in my name but she put me through the process to buy it) My mom continued to invest in mutual funds and a few stocks through the 1950's, always reinvesting dividends and capital gains, until her father died in the early 1960's. At that point she inherited a portfolio worth about $14,000 that held 10-15 BIG CAP AMERICAN stocks. Her largest holding was Phillip Morris which became a HUGE cash cow and wealth generator for our family over the next 50 years. I ultimately went to college, grad school in business, and law school, although I am not licensed to practice law and do not practice law. I worked while in college in the dining hall. At the end of college I got married. My first job paid $700 per month. I worked for $2.50 per hour, part time, while in law school. We were on food stamps and living in a SMALL, HUD house,......that was just slightly on the wrong side of the tracks...... that we bought for $16,000 under a low income HUD program with "0" down. Ended up as a business owner from the mid 1970's to 1999. Sold out at age 49 in 1999 and basically since than have handled family business and investing. From my mom I learned about LONG TERM INVESTING and BIG CAP AMERICAN DIVIDEND INVESTING. I have been actively investing in the style I discuss in this thread for 45+ years now. My family has been investing in this style for 67+ years now. Actually I suspect the real number is about 80-100 years if you include my grandfather since his portfolio was all long term holdings that were BIG CAP AMERICAN stocks. My dad was a military officer for 30 years and retired in the late 1970's as a Colonel. My mom plugged away with her investing, actually mostly reinvesting dividends and capital gains, and holding for the long term. Over the years she added and sold some holdings but her portfolio usually held about 20-25 stocks and 3-4 funds. Since the 1990's, I have been managing what I would call a VERY SMALL.......VERY MICRO........ "Family Office" in today's terms. Certainly not billions or the mega millions that the term implies. I took over managing all the various family members stock and investment accounts in the 1990's, including my moms, and handle most of the insurance, estate and financial planing, real property, trust, home ownership, and other financial issues for my extended family and in-laws. I am currently managing six family members investment accounts, a family trust, and a couple of trusts that will come into existence in the future. I get the fun of doing all extended family tax returns every year along with a trust return. I have invested through the BEAR market of the 1970's and early 1980's. The stagflation and economic disasters of the Carter era and the oil shortage. The Reagan economic BOOM of the early 1980's and into the dot com boom of the late 1990's. Held through the FLASH CRASH of the 1980's. (The advent of the QUANTS in the 1980's although they were not called Quants than. They had their computer, Portfolio Insurance Models, all set up so their HUGE institutional portfolios could not lose money....IN THEORY. The Flash Crash ended that delusion.) I have LONG TERM INVESTED through the DOT COM era of the 1990's and the DOT COM CRASH toward the end of the Clinton era. Talk about a HUGE BUBBLE based on fantasy and some fraud thrown in for good measure. And on, and on, and on, always investing in a portfolio similar to my CORE PORTFOLIO in this thread for the LONG TERM. I have seen and avoided the CDO-Derivative investing mess of the late 1990's and early 2000's that ultimately ended with the economic and housing collapse of 2008. Avoided the Hedge Fund era and all that mania which basically ended with Bernie Madoff. Through the HUGE interest rate environment of the mid 1970's to the early 1980's which I took advantage of to lock in some BIG DOLLAR amounts in 30 year treasuries at about 13% interest. (I sold out all those treasuries when rates went back to normal in the late 1980's for a BIG profit and put those funds into my LONG TERM ACCOUNTS) I have had some good calls over the years. First, starting to invest at an early age and continue with reinvesting dividends and cap gains over my entire life. Being an early investor in MSFT in the 1990-1992 by taking my entire liquid assets (outside of LONG TERM stock accounts) and putting it all in that one stock. I put over $80,000 into MSFT at that time. This was a BIG RISK, it was a very early investment in the company and at the time not as obvious as it looks in hindsight. By the time I sold those funds had increased by 30 to 40 times the initial investment. Sold all MSFT in 2002. I sold out all stocks and funds in all family accounts in March of 2008 for the first time in my life. It appeared to me at that time that for the first time in my life there was an actual possibility of a banking and economic collapse. I was lucky enough, if you can call it luck to go ALL IN back to my regular investing style in March of 2009 and get to enjoy the past 11+ years of gains. For a while back in the mid to late 1990's I did do some margin, momentum trading based on the BOOM and MANIA of the Dot Com era. (outside of my LONG TERM accounts by using margin) Mostly trading 1000 share lots for 1-5 days, especially COST, SBUX, and MSFT shares, in and out, in and out, in and out. I got a nice gain holding 1000 shares of AMGN when their lawsuit settled, (in the late 1990's I believe) and made $40,000 over the course of a few days. That was real money in the 1990's. I cant say it was skill, since it was easy to momentum trade in the late 1990's and make money. I avoided the MANIA of the DAY TRADING era. Obviously at times when I was younger, I did take risk in addition to my LONG TERM INVESTING if I saw a SPECIAL OPPORTUNITY. Like my MSFT move and my momentum trading. Bought and sold eight homes over the years, some made money some just broke even. Made lots of money over the years and at times lost some money. One of my last momentum trades was a loss of about $40,000 on a BIG dot com company just before earnings release. But through it all I have continued to invest as a LONG TERM INVESTOR with NO market timing or trading (usually). I ABSOLUTELY do not believe in TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. I am a FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS type of investor. WOW........WEIRD.......when you put all that time and the experiences in writing......it is something to look back at life. Through all the above time......raising a family and living life outside of business and investing. I have tried to pass on my investing heritage to my children and will try to provide for future generations though long term trusts. So that is where I am coming from when I discuss LONG TERM BIG CAP AMERICAN INVESTING. Either that or I am some 27 year old living in my parents basement....................Anyway, that is a different story......." SO.......THIS is what is BEHIND what you read in this thread.
It's the nest egg, IRA rollover. Can't play around with that, so I let the professionals handle it. I do play around with 5% and have lost my ass too many times to count. Thus, the mutual funds.
I have ETF. Not the same. Different generation. Different fee structure. No humans involved. Holdings are selected via computer algorithm. Most important, is that I buy & sell it like a stock. No minimum investment amount. Instant liquidity. None of that trades once a day stuff.
I'm going to through my AAPL hat in the ring. I bought more APPL at 438 my plan is not to sell at or before split. I think we will see a huge uptick after the split. Cook started the split train and I think we will see others follow in the next 6 months as they see AAPL and TSLA run up with the short crowd. Happy Investing!
Trahn. As to a big run up in Apple after the split. It might happen. BUT.....I have seen many times in the past that after a split often the stock goes up for a day or two and than either lingers or drops. My personal view when doing this sort of trade is to NOT get greedy. I would rather leave some money on the table than WRING every penny out of a trade. In the past........past behavior is not a guarantee of future performance.......I have seen many splits where the gains were made leading up to the day of the spit and than after the split the stock actually went down. Here is some general info: How Stocks Tend to Perform After Stock Splits https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-tend-perform-stock-splits-121507029.html "Apple, Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) surprised investors in its July 30 earnings call announcing a four-for-one stock split. That means investors will now own four times more shares than they have now. The stock price, of course, will fall by a proportionate amount so the market value of their holdings won't change. Fundamentally, nothing changes, but the shares may be affordable for more investors with their lower pricing. A few days later and with a lot less fanfare, Trex Company Inc (NYSE:TREX) also announced an upcoming stock split. If stock splits are making a comeback, it is worth looking at how stocks tend to perform after making their shares cheaper. Stock Returns After Splits Looking at current optionable stocks and going back to 2010, I found 240 stock splits. The table below summarizes how the stocks performed following those splits. The second table is for comparison and shows what the returns would have looked like if instead of buying the stocks, you bought the broad-market S&P 500 Index (SPX) instead. The stock returns aren't particularly bullish. In fact, I would say they're slightly bearish. The short-term returns (out to a month) have a lower average return and percent positive than the general market. Going out three to six months shows an average return that is only slightly better than the SPX, but with a smaller chance at a positive trade. The bottom row of the table shows the percentage of stock returns that would have beat the SPX over each time frame. The very short time frame shows a less than 50% chance of beating the general market. After that, the percentage is just barely over 50%. In general, stock splits don't seem to mean a whole lot for their performance going forward. Stock Returns IotW Layering on Sentiment At Schaeffer's, we heavily consider sentiment as a driver for stock returns. We consider negative sentiment toward a stock as bullish, because just a small amount of good news has the potential to greatly increase buying pressure if it causes a lot of bears change sides. I decided to separate the stock splits by whether the sentiment toward the stocks were bullish or bearish. To gauge sentiment, I used the percentage of analyst "buy" recommendations on the day of the split, which we get from Zacks Investment Research. Stocks with more than 70% of analysts with a buy recommendation I defined as having bullish sentiment. Stocks where fewer than half of analyst recommendations were a buy I defined as having bearish sentiment. Looking at the tables below, stocks that had bearish sentiment on the day of the stock split outperformed the stocks with bullish sentiment. For example, six months after a stock split, the stocks in which analysts were bullish gained an average of 4.7% over the next six months with about 60% of the returns positive and less than half of the stocks beating the SPX over the time frame. For the stocks that analysts were bearish towards, the six-month return averaged double-digits, with 72% positive and 66% of them beating the benchmark. Perhaps the stock split was the catalyst needed to spur buying in these stocks that are looked at unfavorably. Stock Returns buys iotw You might be wondering where the analysts stand on AAPLand TREX, the two aforementioned stocks that recently announced stock splits. Analysts are very bullish on AAPL, with 76% of analysts rating it a buy (19 buys out of 25 analysts). TREX, on the other hand, shows very bearish sentiment, with just 18% of analysts rating it a buy (2 buys out of 11 ratings). So, while AAPL will get all the headlines and ballyhoo, based on this, TREX could be a better option going forward. Analyst recs iotw aug 11" MY COMMENT Who knows.........main thing is to be able to live with what happens after the split......either way.
Here is info on the other four Apple splits................I AM NOT GIVING INVESTMENT ADVICE....you will see that ten days post split in EVERY prior split the stock was DOWN. So.......anyone playing this split.......take care and give it plenty of thought between now and the split so you will be operating from LOGIC and REASON......not emotion. What I think about in a split is......professional traders driving up the share price to the day of the split and taking profits in the day or two after.
WXYZ, Thanks... I had money from my short sell of UPS and was just looking to add to my position of AAPL to hold long term. With the short sell of UPS, I added DG and V (new to my holdings) and some more AAPL. I know you and emmett are looking at a short squeeze and I understand your positions. If we have a huge run up before after or both I may look to sell some. I think the buy before the split (early) was the time to add AAPL either way. It will be fun to watch how the crowd moves AAPL around. Happy Investing!
Sounds good Trahn.....Apple is a great long term hold. HERE is the........news of the day. Or.....at least it SHOULD be. U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 963,000, first time below 1 million since mid-March https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "First-time claims for unemployment insurance last week fell below 1 million for the first time since March 21 in a sign that the labor market is continuing its recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. The total claims of 963,000 for the week ended Aug. 8 was well below the estimate of 1.1 million from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Jobless claims had totaled above 1 million for 20 consecutive weeks as the U.S. economy went into lockdown to contain Covid-19. The last time the total was below that number was March 14, with 282,000, just as the pandemic declaration first hit. While the sub-1 million reading market s a milestone, there’s still plenty of work to do for the job market to get back to normal. Those collecting benefits for at least two weeks, known as continuing claims, totaled nearly 15.5 million, a decrease of 604,000 from a week ago but still well above pre-pandemic levels. Markets cut losses following the report, with Wall Street now indicating a flat open for stocks. The total Americans receiving unemployment benefits fell sharply for the week ended July 25, down more than 3 million to 28.26 million, also pointing to a downward trend in joblessness. A year ago, that number was 1.7 million." MY COMMENT YES.....I just LOVE those ECONOMISTS. They must just sit there every time numbers are reported and say......WTF. They are ALWAYS wrong. These are GOOD NUMBERS and reflect the continued recovery from our self imposed economic collapse.
Welcome Monet. We can always use more posters and readers on this thread and all the threads on Stockaholics. Feel free to post about your portfolio, investing experiences, investing style, etc, etc, any time you wish.
SORRY.........I can NOT resist. Here is the status of my........"POSTING PRIVILEGES" (inside joke)....as of just a few minutes ago.......I AM feeling PRETTY SAFE now. TESLA June 23, 2020 purchase.............+63% July 10, 2020 purchase..............+18% Just having some fun Cult Of Dionysus.........no hard feelings. Please feel free to post your thoughts on here ANY TIME.
Some APPLE discussion.........NOT........related to the stock split. IF...........Yes, "IF"........this happens it could be a BIG money maker for Apple and drive the stock higher. Of course......we have heard things like Apple TV for years and not seen any significant real event. Apple stock is still undervalued and the new 'bundles' show why: analyst https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appl...e-new-bundles-show-why-analyst-180737987.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "If the latest speculation on Apple holds true, it could be well down the path of doubling its revenue from services again in the not too distant future. Apple is planning to debut a host of subscription bundles when it reveals its new crop of iPhones in October, according to Bloomberg. There is likely to be several tiers, such as an entry-level one that offers Apple Music and Apple TV+. More expensive bundles may include Apple Arcade, Apple News+, extra cloud storage, Apple Music and Apple TV+. Any service bundle would inject a fresh, recurring revenue stream into Apple. And it would come at the time of potentially the introduction of Apple’s first suite of 5G iPhones. Couple these two growth drivers together, and Wall Street may soon be tripping over themselves to mark up their earnings estimates on Apple for the next several years. The tech giant’s stock price theoretically would follow the rising tide of those sell-side profit upgrades. Dan Ives tells Yahoo Finance.“We believe this could be a significant move for Apple and potentially increase the services revenue trajectory by up to 5% in 2021. This is Cook & Co. further monetizing its installed base with the bundling strategy a genius move in our opinion,” Wedbush tech analyst and Apple bull Dan Ives tells Yahoo Finance. Apple’s stock has climbed a cool 58% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite has gained 23%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average — in which Apple is a member — has dropped 2%." MY COMMENT YES........it COULD be a nice thing. First this is speculation by the media. Second.......with all the options that people have for these sorts of services.......it might be a big thing......it might not. I am sure that the MANY APPLE fans out there would use these bundles.......especially if the pricing is attractive. sounds like a pretty good idea in theory. The key will be how it is implimented and priced and advertised and managed..........in REALITY.
Read first and last page. WOW! Kind of investor I want to be. I am late to the party but it is never too late. I was thinking on the same lines and came across this thread which partly validates my thinking. I still keep lot of cash on hand (CDs) to ensure next several years of survival and not lose sleep. haha! Would you mind critiquing my stock portfolio if I post it here? I can post scripts and % allocation.
For a really really sh#%ty year, coupled with one of the biggest market crash of all time, I’m glad to see that everyone (including myself) is doing well. I mean, can you believe this???? 4 months ago everyone was shitting bricks and now I’m reading people are up 20-60% up on all their investments. I just have... no words... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...re-doing-wrong-when-buying-stocks-on-your-own Happy investing guys!
Yes please share, We have such good knowledgeable investors here. I am sure one or all will help critique it. The info you receive will be only opinions of others, to do with it whatever you please. I really love the thread in part, because of honest opinions. Also, I appreciate good advice. Blessings to all.
