Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 24th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday No data Tuesday 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing 9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home prices 10:00 a.m. New home sales 10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence Wednesday 8:30 a.m. Durable goods Thursday Virtual Fed Kansas City summit begins 8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q2 second reading 9:10 a.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on monetary policy framework review - navigating the next decade 10:00 a.m Pending home sales Friday Virtual Kansas City Fed summit 8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending 8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
Value-Rotation 'Cancelled' - Small Caps Slammed As Mega-Tech Meltup Accelerates After a brief moment in sanity (perhaps) that saw headlines proclaiming a "value rotation" was about to begin, growth stocks have been panic bid for 8 straight days... Source: Bloomberg Simply put, value-allocators "get nothing"... Source: Bloomberg In fact, the last 3 months of growth outperformance has only been outdone by 1932 and 2000... For yet another major swing in the Mega-Tech vs Small Caps weekly performance... Source: Bloomberg But breadth continues to confound... Source: Bloomberg And Nasdaq is really decoupled... Source: Bloomberg Apple shares continued to elevate adding simply stunning gobs of market capitalization every day ($110bn today!!)... And TSLA won't stop ahead of its split... Treasury yields were all lower on the week with the long-end dramatically outperforming... Source: Bloomberg 10Y Yields are back below 65bps... Source: Bloomberg The yield curve flattened notably this week (after last week's huge steepening) Source: Bloomberg The dollar ended the week unchanged after a big roundtrip... Source: Bloomberg The dollar actually closed very very marginally lower at its lowest weekly close since June 2018 - making this the 8th weekly drop in a row (the longest streak since Aug 2010)... Source: Bloomberg Ugly week for crypto with Ethereum's worst week since early May... Source: Bloomberg Did the DeFi boom just end? Source: Bloomberg Gold closed back below $2000.. It seems like someone will stop at nothing to keep WTI above $42... Finally, since around 2000 - when the world started to be flooded with liquidity - Wall Street has done well... but Main Street "got nothing"... Source: Bloomberg Can you handle that truth? “There’s this massive disconnect between fundamentals and markets,” said Brian Payne, investment officer at the Teachers’ Retirement System of Illinois. “There’s just too much capital chasing investments, the Fed is flooding markets and that leverage isn’t going to the real economy. As we approach the election and concerns over a ‘blue sweep’ grow, that could be the inflection point where people’s bullish sentiment turns bearish.” Not only is 'the market' not the economy, it's the opposite of the real economy?
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
September Almanac: Only Modest Improvement in Election Years Start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). Sizable gains in September 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2017 have lifted Russell 2000 to second worst (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble buildup. Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance over the same time frame. September’s performance does improve slightly in election years, but it is still negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have been able to escape negative territory and post modest 0.2% and 0.8% average gains respectively in the last ten election year Septembers. 5 Charts To See With Stocks At New Highs “Better late than never.” It took a while, but the S&P 500 Index finally made a new all-time high, coming all the way back from the vicious 34% bear market in less than six months. It might bring back some scary memories, but back in March it took the S&P 500 only 16 days to go from new highs to a bear market (down 20%), the fastest ever. “This will go down as the fastest bear market ever, but also one of the fastest recoveries ever,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Then again, we’ve never quite seen a recession and recovery like this, so maybe it isn’t a shock to see new highs this quickly.” The bear officially lasted one month and took five months to recover the losses. Usually when there’s a bear market during a recession, it takes 30 months to recover those loses. This was the third-fastest ever, with only 3 months to recover from a bear market recession in the early ‘80s and 4 months to recover from a bear market in the early ‘90s. It seems like earlier this year and new highs were a lifetime ago, but the S&P 500 finally moved off unlucky 13, notching the 14th new high of 2020. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, returns after a long time without new highs actually get better. One, three, six, and 12 months after the first new high in more than five months show stronger performance than average or after any new highs. Yet another reason to think that this bull market from a long-term point of view could have some more tricks up its sleeve. Last, we found there were four other times the S&P 500 made a new high during a recession: In February ’61, July ’80, November ’82, and March ’91. Incredibly, a new expansion started the following month every single time. Could stocks at new highs be signaling an end to this recession? We think that very well could be the case again this time. Largest S&P 500 Stocks + Tesla (TSLA) Fri, Aug 21, 2020 Tesla (TSLA) is now up 50% over the last 10 calendar days dating back to August 11th. This has propelled the company way up the list of the largest US companies. Below is a table of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 with Tesla (TSLA) included. As shown, Tesla's $382.7 billion market cap would rank it as the 9th largest stock in the S&P 500 were it in the index. On August 11th, Tesla's market cap was just $256 billion, so over the last ten days it has leapfrogged companies like Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), JP Morgan (JPM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Mastercard (MA), and NVIDIA (NVDA). Next up would be Visa (V) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which have market caps just under $400 billion. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for our best research available. B.I.G. Tips - Earnings Season and Top Triple Plays Wed, Aug 19, 2020 Walmart (WMT) wrapped up the Q2 2020 earnings reporting period on Tuesday with a huge beat on both the top and bottom line. It was a fitting end to what turned out to be a record-setting earnings season. As we highlighted in our Q2 Earnings Season preview in early July, analysts were rapidly increasing earnings estimates leading up to earnings season. Normally when that happens, stocks have trouble performing well during earnings season because the expectations bar has been set higher. This season, even with analyst estimates on the rise in the four weeks leading up to the start of the reporting period, companies managed to beat bottom-line EPS estimates at the highest rate in the history of our database going back to 1999. As shown below, 76% of companies reported stronger-than-expected EPS numbers this season, which eclipsed the prior record high of 73% seen during the Q3 2006 reporting period. Long-term Bespoke subscribers know how much we like earnings triple plays, but for those that haven’t heard of the term, we came up with it back in the mid-2000s. An earnings triple play is a company that beats EPS estimates, beats revenue estimates, and raises forward guidance all in the same quarterly earnings report. Investopedia.com is one of the best online resources for financial markets education, and they’ve actually given us credit for coining the “triple play” term on their website. We consider triple play stocks to be the cream of the crop of earnings season, and we are constantly finding new long-term buy opportunities from this basket of names each quarter. This earnings season there were a massive number of earnings triple plays. We went through the list of this season's triple plays to find the ones that have the most attractive set-ups heading into the earnings off-season.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 8.21.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 8.21.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for August 21st, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.23.20 Video from ShadowTrader
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 8.24.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 8.24.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 8.25.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 8.25.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 8.26.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 8.26.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 8.27.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 8.27.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 8.28.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 8.28.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($BBY $DG $CRM $DLTR $INTU $DKS $MDT $PANW $SJM $ICLK $OKTA $MRVL $ADSK $HRL $WDAY $BIG $COTY $ULTA $BOX $SPLK $BNS $TOL $VMW $BMO $TD $VEEV $HPE $DELL $BILI $BURL $PLCE $ANF $OLLI $PLAN $FLWS $VIOT $RY $HPQ $SOL $BITA $ATHM $NTAP) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning August 24th, 2020 <-- click there to view!
Big Bear! I believe you are the fella setting up this thread every week. I have to say, I don't know how you are doing it, but this thread/info is excellent every week. It's truly appreciated and very helpful. Do you have to copy and paste all this every week? I'd imagine, a lot of people read hear but don't post. Anyway, I/we appreciate your hard work here and finally(after at least a year of reading) had to sign up and say something. You deserve some props.
I have covered for him before, he does indeed copy and paste it all. He is very underappreciated around here, but @bigbear0083 holds it all together and is the reason this site is running.
With AAPL's split today, it made me start thinking about people with stop orders. I haven't ever been invested in a company where there was a stock split so it made me look it up. Here's the answer for anyone who didn't know. Investopedia: Don’t assume your brokerage house will adjust the trigger price following a stock split. In most cases, the stop order is simply voided. Therefore, you’ll have to place a new order with the broker if you’re still interested in protecting your investment.
I concur! I’m always amazed at his consistency too. I’ve largely been a lurker of this board since I joined, but like you I had signed up a name to give him some kudos. I particularly enjoy his market statistics he posts up. They’re super interesting to me. Albeit, I’ve noticed he hasn’t been very active of late. Not to take anything away from the other contributors on this board but admittedly he is mostly the only reason I still find myself still checking in here everyday. Hopefully he will be back regularly again soon cuz really missing his daily input in the thread.
I think he said he will be more active again starting next month. Everyone needs a break, pretty sure he will be back
Played the recent IPOs like BEKE and RKT a little bit, RKT up almost 20% for me and BEKE up about 12%
Fast Money mad a big deal about IBB breaking out to ATH a couple months ago, but after peaking last month it has taken a steep tumble and is back below the breakout point of 133.60. Biotechs in the middle-to-lower middle of this heat map, a lot of red in that section: Doesn't look like the breakout has failed yet, but it hasn't taken hold in spite of the general market making new highs.
Cloud stocks (WCLD etf) going sideways this month. BABA breaking out with a gap The Chinese internet stocks (CQQQ etf) are bouncing off the 50 sma.
