Id like to (hear) your analysis, mr tomb16. i have been reading the headlines since last night. They seem pretty profound today. Very long term positive! 20 million cars by 2027.......70% yr over yr growth... Tsla sues nkla for 2 billion Tsla (unverified) said to be Looking to acquire a 10% stake in LG battery break off branch. Lithium contract for NC mining company. and the world seems to be starting to grasp the impact of battery day.... edit. Forgot to add. Last couple weeks company email leaked pushing deliveries, followed by a mr musk tweet last week thanking shareholders AND tesla customers for a great qtr. i would venture to bet they met the deliveries goal. Probably beat....if i was a betting man...which i am. Haha
I am ignoring the LG buy-in rumor, for now. I don't even care about Elon's tweet about having prototype 4680 cell packs in use for months. The only thing I care about is the FSD early beta in about one month.
I always respect your input. I however cant ignore deliveries. As is everything elon, it is woven into FSD. If FSD is to be worth 100k. And elon said himself on battery day, if u want to value tsla, its cars on road x cost of FSD. 100k FSD per car times 2 mil cars per yr...is a big number my calculator wont tell me without using letters.....20 million PER YR!!!!! Is well...i would assume that big number by 10. Deliveries are very important to FSD value, at least in terms of valuation.
They need to set a delivery record, at least by a little bit. It shouldn't be all that difficult for them to do. We really need to see 110K deliveries for the quarter. Personally, I need to see a production number above that level. Even 125K unit production will be barely acceptable for me. I'm not saying I'll dump my shares and buy Nikola if Tesla doesn't hit some amazing new numbers but they've had 6 months of process improvements that have not been accounted for. Full subframe castings, paint shop improvements, battery pack optimizations, etc. We didn't see how that affected production in Q2 because of the shut down. This is where the rubber meets the road, both figuratively and literally. lol!
I told my buddy Just this morning before i came to the forums, that the vision is becoming more clear. It has always been a vision, but now the puzzle pieces to Achieve it, are being laid into place. Battery day can NOT be understated. It was in fact, in my opinion the biggest achievement tsla has done yet. Aside from FSD which will be the bigger biggest, once online.
Think about what vehicle delivery must cost. I estimate delivery averages about $1500/car in the continental US. Once driverless FSD is legal in the US, perhaps in two or three years, that number will be under $100 in electricity for the car to drive itself to the new owner. [Edit: At $55K ASP, removing delivery cost will improve Tesla's margin around 3%.]
A handful of developers at Tesla, and Elon, are running FSD right now. The code is being qualified for the early release program over the next month, or so.
Sounds about right to me: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/28/mus...ut-i-think-itll-be-worth-more-in-5-years.html
I'm bullish on Tesla, also. Here are a couple of thoughts. 1) To build 20M cars by 2030, Tesla will have to expand at a rate of 35-40% per year. That is going to be difficult to do over a decade, but not entirely out of the question. I estimate less than 50% chance of achieving this but a much higher chance of getting close. 2) In order to expand at this rate, there will be no chance for Tesla to issue a dividend at any point in that trajectory. Old guys like me need to rethink Tesla in our portfolios. Of course, I might be the only old guy who owns Tesla. lol!
Did Tesla and Germany ever come to agreement on the windshield wipers control? Teslas are screen enabled. Germany said they demand a dash switch. That would be ugly lol.
Only 17 million cars and light trucks were sold in 2019. Tesla wants to sell more cars, than every car maker combined.
Keep in mind, you will watch over the next few years, several car manufacturers suffering to the point of collapse or desperate mergers. There will be a vacuum developing rather quickly, and there will be survivors, and there will be Tesla. Ample room for growth acceleration for Tesla. I watch Ford now, desperate to team up with VW to be a viable EV company. Which it will not be. Chrysler, Cerberus should have hacked it to pieces like a junkyard car. But somehow they survive by being tossed around by new parent companies. A lot of their product is really poorly designed. VW, they just keep messing up since diesel gate. At least they got Ford giving them use of their unused plants. Yes, Tesla can achieve 20m cars, with customers in line. Fleet. Rentals. Ride shares. And a 25k$ EV commuter could be sold in mass in many countries. Yes, other car companies are projecting a contracting market for them. Thanks Elon
And this party is not over until they leave, but they are not leaving! They are just drinking more and more!
At some point, you would expect these broads to step out of the bedroom, with their sweaters around their waists, and leave the party. I mean, to all things there are limits.
