Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of September 28th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 2:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Tuesday 8:30 a.m. Advanced Economic indicators 9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices 9:15 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams 9:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker 10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence 1:00 p.m. New York Fed’s Williams Wednesday 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 8:30 a.m. Q2 GDP 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI 10:00 a.m. Pending home sales 11:00 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Thursday Vehicle sales 8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Personal income/spending 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending 11:00 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams Friday 8:30 a.m. Employment report 9:00 a.m. Philadelphia Fed’s Harker 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Factory orders
Dow Suffers Worst Week Since June As Dollar Surges Most In Six Months A mixed picture in the major US equity indices this week with mega-tech-heavy Nasdaq managing gains (busting a three-week losing streak) as The Dow suffered its worst week since June, S&P and Dow down for the 4th week in a row (longest losing streak since Aug 2019)... But, away from index-land, the media US stock is in bear market, down over 20% year-to-date... Source: Bloomberg A much uglier week for European stocks... Source: Bloomberg The S&P 500 bounced off "unch" for 2020 today... Source: Bloomberg Uncertainty around the election continued to rise this week... Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields were all lower on the week with the long-end outperforming (30Y -5bps, 2Y -1bps)... Source: Bloomberg Real yields surged higher on the week, dragging gold lower... Source: Bloomberg The dollar ripped higher this week (5th day higher in the last 6 higher) to its best week since March Source: Bloomberg Notably the dollar rallied to the March low pivot... Source: Bloomberg We note that the net spec positioning across FX futures was extremely short the USD which may explain the week's squeeze... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos were all lower on the week (even with the rally of the last two days) with Bitcoin the least hit and Ethereum worst... Source: Bloomberg Silver was on target for its worst week since Sept 2011 before today's bounce but all the major commodities were weaker on the week amid a soaring USD... Source: Bloomberg The last time silver saw such a drop, it screamed higher... Gold has outperformed silver for 5 of the last 6 days - the biggest weekly outperformance since March... Source: Bloomberg Finally, there's this... Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
September Bears Strike Again The September weakness continued with the S&P 500 Index 9.6% off the all-time high set on September 2 (as of 9/23/20). It is important to remember that after a 60% rally in the S&P 500—and much more in some of the large cap tech stocks—this type of seasonal weakness is normal and expected. We noted in our blog Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year that some type of seasonal weakness could be in the cards. Speaking of seasonal weakness, the second half of September historically has been one of the worst periods of the year for stocks, as shown in our chart below. Another angle on this is showing how each day of the year does. Again, we are in the sweet spot for potential rocky seas. “To see some late-September weakness after a record 60% rally shouldn’t be too surprising,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “What might surprise some investors, though, is that after some of the previous best six-month rallies ever, in a lot of cases, the strength continued going out a year.” As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the recent rally was one of the best six-month rallies ever for the S&P 500. Looking at all the previous rallies that gained at least 30%, returns are somewhat muted near term. But going out a full year, prices have typically moved higher, up seven out of eight times a year later. S&P 500 October Gains Frequently Precede Presidential Incumbent Party Victories An interesting aspect of election-year Octobers is the propensity for S&P 500 gains when the incumbent party ultimately retains the White House. Of the ten incumbent victories since 1944, the S&P 500 has advanced seven times, declined twice, and was unchanged in 1944 with an average October gain of 1.4%. Of the nine occurrences since 1944 when the incumbent was defeated, there were six S&P 500 declines and three advances in October. The average October decline when incumbents were defeated was 2.1%. Even excluding the S&P’s 16.9% plunge in 2008, incumbent defeats were still preceded by an average October loss of 0.3%. "Low Energy" Energy Fri, Sep 25, 2020 US stocks are looking to close out the week on a positive note with the S&P 500 up over 1%. One sector that hasn't been participating in the rally, however, is Energy. While it just moved back into positive territory for the day, the sector remains at the back of the pack in terms of sector performance. If these levels hold for the remainder of the trading day, it will be the 69th time in the last 200 trading days that Energy has been the worst-performing sector. That works out to more than once every three trading days. Talk about a sector that's in liquidation mode! The chart below shows the rolling 200-day total number of days that Energy has been the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500. While the current level of 69 is extremely high, earlier this month the rolling 200-day total was even higher at 71. Over this same period of time, no other sector has even seen close to as many days of ranking at the bottom as Energy. The next closest is Utilities as it has been at the bottom of the pack in terms of performance on 36 of the last 200 trading days. It hasn't just been the last 200 trading days that have been rough for the Energy sector. Over the last five years, the sector has been the worst-performing sector on just over 23% of all trading days. Is this what it felt like for the horse and buggy companies in the early 1900s or the ice-harvesting companies after the invention of electric refrigeration? Election Anxiety Weighs on October Market Performance October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second and third worst DJIA weekly point declines. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens. But October has become a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will. Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%). However, eight were midterm bottoms. Over the last 21 years, October’s performance has been solid. Average gains over the last 21-years range from 1.3% by Russell 1000 to 2.4% by NASDAQ. Small caps have still struggled though with Russell 2000 gaining a modest 0.5% Election-year Octobers rank dead last for Dow, S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972), Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 (since 1980). Eliminating gruesome 2008 from the calculation provides a moderate amount of relief, as rankings climb to mid pack. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares. 5 Real-Time Data Charts To Track the Recovery We check in again today on some of the real-time economic data that LPL Research is monitoring to provide timely and valuable insights into the state of the US economy. Traditional economic data is often reported too slowly to pick up the changes that are occurring in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest data on US COVID-19 cases has shown steady progress since peaking at the end of July. COVID-19 hospitalizations are at the lowest levels since the end of June and are close to the lows of mid-June. The number of positive COVID cases rose over the last week, and while the number of tests performed increased, the positive test rate also increased to near 6% (source: COVID Tracking Project). Further, Labor Day get-togethers may have created the recent bump in transmission, a trend we saw following other holidays over the summer. “Even as much of the real-time data shows a slowing recovery as Americans adjust to the new normal, it’s encouraging that new COVID-19 cases and hospitalization rates have improved greatly since mid-summer,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Progress on a COVID-19 vaccine and fiscal stimulus could help the economy and markets in the fourth quarter, but as investors struggle with election uncertainty and US-China tensions remain elevated, it’s likely to be a bumpy ride.” Out of all the indicators we monitor, US retail sales had been showing one of the most robust recoveries toward the end of the summer as it exceeded 2019 levels on a year-over-year basis, but the most recent weekly readings from retailers on same-store sales recently slipped back lower than last year (source: Bloomberg, Johnson Redbook). It’s not surprising that consumer confidence levels, as measured by the Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index, also dipped on their last reading. Driving map routing requests by the Apple maps app exceeded pre-pandemic levels but have since leveled off and is now declining slightly. This real-time indicator steadily recovered from March and April lows as people returned to work or other economic activity, and it’s been continuing at a higher than normal rate as Americans travel by car when they previously may have used public transit or air travel. Public transit usage, as measured by Moovit, is still at only 50% of its baseline level, as working from home has a huge effect on usage numbers in major metropolitan areas. Electricity demand is also showing a bumpy recovery. It had recovered, dipped, and then recovered, only to dip again since the start of September. Demand for electricity dropping again potentially indicates a slowdown in the rate at which businesses are reopening or softening demand for their goods and services. During the midst of the March lockdowns, the number of diners in US restaurants hit extreme lows of -100% compared to the same time last year. The last reading on this indicator was -45%, coming off a recent peak of -30% on September 7 (source: Opentable). Restaurant bookings could be under pressure as cooler weather makes outdoor dining less comfortable in parts of the country. As the seasons change from summer to fall, consumer behavior often changes, too, and the potential for heightened rates of viral transmission grows. We will continue to monitor key high-frequency data and provide updates for clues about the path of the economic recovery as we continue to battle the outbreak of COVID-19 across the globe.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 9.25.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 9.25.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for September 25th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.27.20 Video from ShadowTrader
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 9.28.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 9.28.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 9.29.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 9.29.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 9.30.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 9.30.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 10.1.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 10.1.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 10.2.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 10.2.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($MU $PEP $MKC $THO $BBBY $CAG $WB $STZ $NTWK $UNFI $SINA $PRGS $INFO $SNX $PTN $CALM $ANGO $EPAC $NG $CMTL $SGH $QK $RLGT $GNFT) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning September 28th, 2020 <-- click there to view!
I don't plan to re-enter until the SPX hits at least 3300, but actually 3250 to 3280 might be a solid buy zone, for the next time. I'd have to see what the price action is to know with more certainty
If ES does not hit 3345 then I'm still seeing sideways trading to end the month, possibility to test the double-bottom (and maybe go for a triple-bottom haha).
Nice rally, I am mostly a seller today to book some profits from that positions that I got in last week. Should be an interest week ahead with the jobs report and the Presidential debate coming up this week
Bull/Bear fight going on all over the place at the 50 day on the daily chart. So far the Bulls are winning. Lets see what happens EOD.
Is October usually a good month too during the election year? I have no idea and pretty curious about it
