The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    That post earlier.....that I had to run and did not get posted.......is now.....of course.......outdated. I am now negative for the day.....very slightly. I STILL have 7 of 13 positions in the green and am still beating the SP500 by .44%........BUT......overall I am slightly in the red.

    The markets today are the VICTIM of yet another LOW to NO news day. We are in the election/Supreme court/stimulous DOLDRUMS today. BUT all in all with those events pending we are doing well. We might see more up and down short term action soon with earnings taking center stage. BUT.....even earnings may not be much of a market impacting event......it seems like they have been mentally discounted by many investors.
     
  2. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Thank you as always WXYZ. I always admired your “Go big or go home” attitude. I’m still taking small steps and probably need to get closer to making big and quick moves when it calls for it.
    I’ve decided I will sell all my rotten eggs tomorrow and pour that capital to my strong positions. I’m probably gonna hold on to the short term account because I really like those stocks and they have kept growing for awhile now.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like a plan.....Zukodany. Let the winners run......sell the losers.......and......reinvest that money in your keepers. The short term trades.........if you continue to like them might become long term holdings. Nothing wrong with letting them run and seeing if you want to hold some of them for the longer term.
     
  4. Auri

    Auri Well-Known Member

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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.......the markets open today about the same as yesterday.............BORING and DULL. I am NOT seeing many articles lately actually dealing with investing. EVERYTHING........even on the financial sites.......is ALL social BS, politics, covid, etc, etc, etc.

    At least with earnings starting, I might have some data to post from company reports. Like J&J.......one of my Portfolio Model holdings:

    Johnson & Johnson beats third-quarter earnings expectations, raises guidance

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/johnson-johnson-jnj-earnings-q3-2020.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street’s expectations, led by higher sales in its medical-device unit and higher demand for some of its drugs.
    • But J&J just paused its late-stage Covid-19 vaccine trial because a participant reported an adverse event.

    Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street’s expectations, led by higher sales in its medical-device unit and higher demand for some of its drugs.

    J&J reported an adjusted earnings of $2.20 per share, higher than the $1.98 per share projected by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. The company generated $21.08 billion in revenue, higher than the $20.2 billion expected and up from $20.72 last year.

    The company also raised its full-year guidance, expecting adjusted earnings of $7.95 to $8.05 from per share from $7.75 to $7.95 per share. It also raised its sales forecast to a range of $82 billion to $82.8 billion from $79.9 billion to $81.4 billion.

    J&J’s pharmaceutical business, which is working on a coronavirus vaccine, generated $11.4 billion in revenue, a 5% year-over-year increase. The vaccine’s late-stage trial was just paused after one of its participants reported an “adverse event,” Chief Financial Officer Joseph Wolk said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday.

    J&J’s share price fell1.5% on Tuesday, to $149.55 per share.

    The company’s consumer unit, which makes products such as Listerine, generated $3.5 billion in revenue, up 1.3% from a year earlier. Its medical device unit generated $6.1 billion, a 1.7% increase.

    “Our world-class R&D team is working tirelessly to advance the Phase 3 trials of our COVID- 19 vaccine and to uphold the highest standards of transparency, safety and efficacy; while other dedicated teams provide ongoing support to hospitals and patients as they return to sites of care, and ensure patients and consumers have the medicines and products they need,” J&J CEO Alex Gorsky said in a press release.

    J&J began its phase three trial testing of its potential coronavirus vaccine last month, becoming the fourth drugmaker backed by the Trump administration’s Covid-19 vaccine program Operation Warp Speed to enter late-stage testing.

    J&J confirmed to STAT News on Monday that the 60,000-patient clinical trial had been temporarily paused due to an unexplained illness in a study participant.

    AstraZeneca announced on Sept. 8 that its trial had been put on hold due to an unexplained illness in a patient in the United Kingdom. The trial has since resumed in the U.K. and other countries, but is still on hold in the United States."

    MY COMMENT

    NICE.....steady, solid........earnings. This company is not going to be a BOOMER.......but.........it is a nice steady ANCHOR holding that helps to provide some counterbalance to my more RISKY tech holdings. I like to have a mix of companies that DOMINATE on the consumer side of the economy..........some more risky, some more stable. I TRY to not get too focused on individual companies.........I prefer to see my portfolio performance as a WHOLE.......and.......hopefully the performance of the "WHOLE" is greater, safer, and more suitable for long term investing than the individual components. I LIKE this company for their CONSUMER side of the business........I am not a big fan of more pure drug companies. They tend to be too BOOM & BUST for my taste with long periods of nothing in-between.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    In REAL PROPERTY........local, local, local......is the name of the game. Here in my "little" part of Central Texas, I have noticed a slowing in the "feel" of the real estate market lately over the past 3 weeks. HOWEVER it remains a MASSIVE sellers market. In my area of 3000 homes.......there are SIX listings for sale under $1MIL........and.......4 listings for sale between $1MIL and $4MIL. The LOWEST price home actively for sale is $510,000.

    About 8 years ago in this area you a could buy a home at the LOW END of the market between $260,000 and about $285,000. NOW the low end of the market in this area is about $400,000 for a single family home.........and.......homes in that price range are becoming very difficult to find. I suspect that my area will see the minimum home price quickly jump up to $500,000 some time over the next year or two.

    The BIG ISSUE for buyers is property taxes. Texas has high property taxes and on a $500,000 home you are looking at about $12,000 in property taxes per year.
     
  7. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    But, no state income taxes. The government is going to get theirs one way or another. In the end we are all screwed.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    MINOR blah day in the markets today. I......of course.......ended up red and got beat by the SP500 by .10%.

    You are so right Emmett. I once researched it and ran figures for Texas as to replacing the property tax with an increased sales tax. It would take a TOTAL sales tax rate of about 14-15%. Our sales tax right now is 8.25%. I would GREATLY prefer this. It would make sure that EVERYONE paid for the schooling of their kids and everything else. It would capture all the CASH and under the table economy.......which is huge in Texas with the number of Illegal Aliens that are in the state. It would also.......in theory......spread more tax to the upper income brackets or those that spend a lot of money. I STRONGLY suspect that it would SHOCK everyone how much extra money it would bring in by taxing all the money and that is UNDER THE TABLE and CASH. In theory......we all know how that works in real life.......rents would go down since landlords would not be paying much property tax anymore. It.........might.........even provide some incentive for people to NOT spend as much of their income and save some. Of course.......you would exempt food and medicine and continue with the sales tax free days that we currently have for back to school shopping.

    Will this ever happen? ZERO CHANCE........the politicians like things exactly as they are.........and.......commercial property is SEVERELY UNDER-APPRAISED for property taxes in Texas so their free ride on the backs of homeowners would end.
     
  9. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Totally agree.

    I have often thought about how to best tax the populace so as to be as fair and equitable as possible, and each time I come back to sales tax and VAT on foreign transactions. You buy in state? Pay state sales tax. You buy out of state? The company collects tax on your state's behalf. You buy internationally? Pay the VAT. Violations and abuse pay a FAT fine.

    Second hand private sales stays non-taxable, because good luck enforcing that.

    And if you want to be really crazy, have each state pay a percentage of earned state taxes to the federal government and tie the senate seats to that amount :lauging:

    Income tax is so easily abused that it is a terrible metric for taxation. Get rid of it. Repurpose the IRS into a state based sales tax enforcement agency that goes after any entity failing to charge sales tax/VAT to customers.

    Make property taxes something like 1-2% and lock it to the average yearly wage increase in that zip code to provide a very steady (yet fair) baseline tax revenue for the state. I am very much against homeowners taking it on the chin to be the most stable source of income for states while loopholes and incentives are exploited on the commercial and industrial front. This is especially true for modest homeowners who saved up for years just to own a home and can become buried under their property taxes.

    Let the conspicuous consumers become more aware of their conspicuous consumption and ease up on the frugal people.

    It will, of course, never happen. And I am sure there are probably glaring issues with what I just proposed, but I am pretty dang sure it is better than what we have now:duh:

    And if you are wondering how the federal government will be funded... I kind of don't care at this point :biggrin: As as Californian, we never get back even a fraction of what we give those clowns!
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  10. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Where I live, there's a special tax on property. It pays for free City College. The politicians sold the parcel tax to voters like RobinHood. Take from the rich landlord, and give free education to the poor. Tenants got an increase in rent to help the landlord pay the tax.
     
  11. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    The hell did they think was going to happen? What a load of crap. I have no idea about the numbers, but that seems like a break-even at best for tenants whose children use the city colleges.

    If they were dead set on using property values to do that, why not just have it apply to single family detached homes? Stupid.
     
  12. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Voters are not the most sophisticated people. Easily swayed. Underinformed. Maybe renters thought that their landlords were dumb enough not to raise their rents by $8.25. Screenshot_2020-10-15-00-19-25.png
     
  13. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Well at least in NY you can’t do jack sh*t to raise rents to level the field with extraordinarily high property taxes. Cause... well you can’t even evict anyone if they decide not to pay.
    So sit idle, bend over, and take it deep in as much as you can
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well........out of touch ALL DAY. I was gone from 7:30 AM till 7:30 PM. Appears that I did not miss anything in the markets. Looks like another BLAH day. Of course I was in the RED today and got beat by the SP500 by .30%.

    TOMORROW........tomorrow.......is another day. In fact the last day of the week.......so.......lets make it a good one.
     
  15. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    This is very much an issue in France as my wife's family has talked about constantly. Such a mess with a combination of employment and tenant protections and sometimes entrenched nationalistic xenophobia.

    It is extremely hard to fire someone there so employers are very hesitant to hire immigrants from North African and Arab countries (probably a bit of racism as well from what I have heard). Since nobody wants to take a chance on them with the option to fire them if they are not a good fit, they often find it very hard to escape poverty and move above the very liberal social programs. Add to that a damn near impossible ability to evict people (and an outright ban during the winter months) and you have a recipe for a very strong dislike of immigrants from the ethnic French and an intense disenfranchisement and hostility toward the French government from the impoverished immigrants. The outskirts of Paris are a perfect illustration of this.
     
  16. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Racism is global. Every country I have been to. It's usually open. And discrimination is not exclusive to just race. People of the same race discriminate against their own race, based on wealth, place of origin, or some archaic class system.

    Screenshot_20201014-153120.png Screenshot_20201013-153845.png Screenshot_20201011-135127.png Screenshot_20201004-193702.png
     
  17. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Which is why I love this bit from Dave Chappelle:



    Pardon the, ahem, French :lauging:
     
  18. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Screenshot_2020-10-15-22-14-55.png Screenshot_2020-10-15-22-59-17.png Screenshot_2020-10-15-22-19-17.png Screenshot_2020-10-15-22-27-48.png
     
  19. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    One of these days you are going to let us know why you follow up your replies of complete sentences and straight lines of thinking with those captions that require decoder rings, right? :lauging:
     
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL........you have to give credit for HONESTY. SO refreshing.......in the current culture of excuses and whining:

    "Wall Street won't have Ted Aronson to kick around anymore. After a punishing stretch for the investment fund that he helped start nearly four decades ago, AJO Partners, with offices in Philadelphia and Boston, is calling it quits. Aronson put the reasoning behind the planned closure of the $10 billion investment manager at the end of the year simply and unabashedly in an interview with MarketWatch on Thursday afternoon: “Our return sucks over the past few years.”"

    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a89bec91-0b35-3cb9-b24a-f63ea24f5abb/‘our-return-sucks-over-the.html

    MY COMMENT

    At least he did NOT........lie.......and........ claim he was hacked. Than come SLINKING back a few days later when things blow over and admit that he did it.......with NO real consequences. (Hello?.....Steve Scully?) Or the other TYPICAL EXCUSE.........."I have made mistakes".....and than simply go on with NO impact or taking of responsibility. TODAY.........the buck NEVER stops anywhere.
     
    #2280 WXYZ, Oct 16, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2020

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