NICELY DONE: Amazon reports sales growth of 37%, topping estimates https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q3-2020.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Amazon reported blowout third-quarter results on Thursday, including a big beat on the top line and double-digit revenue growth year over year. The stock climbed 1.5% after hours. Earnings: $12.37 vs $7.41 per share expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv Revenue: $96.15 billion vs $92.7 billion expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv Amazon said sales in the fourth quarter will be between $112 and $121 billion, which comes out to growth of 28% to 38% from a year earlier. Analysts were expecting revenue of $112.3 billion. The company forecast operating income of $1 billion to $4.5 billion, assuming about $4.0 billion of costs tied to COVID-19. That’s a step up from the second quarter, when Amazon said it would spend more than $2 billion on coronavirus-related measures, including procuring personal protective equipment, enhanced cleaning of its facilities and wage increases. Amazon’s cloud-computing unit, Amazon Web Services, generated sales of $11.6 billion for the quarter, up 29% year over year and in line with analysts’ estimates, according to FactSet. Operating income in the segment of $3.54 billion topped estimates of $3.45 billion. The segment was helped by millions of people working from home. MY COMMENT AMAZING company.......a key, core, investment for any long term stock investor. BUT......if we follow the norm.....there will be some little data point that the markets will nit-pick and use as an excuse for the stock to be down tomorrow. Just like is happening to TWITTER...right now. But that stock and Facebook are a couple that I will NEVER own.
HERE......is number two of the BIG THREE: Apple falls as strong iPad and Mac sales don’t make up for iPhone decline https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/apple-aapl-earnings-q4-2020.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Apple reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday that slightly exceeded Wall Street expectations, but the company did not offer investors any guidance for the quarter ending in December. The lack of fiscal first-quarter 2021 guidance from Apple means that investors and analysts don’t get a hint at how Apple is projecting the sales performance of the iPhone 12, which went on sale in October. Apple reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday that slightly exceeded Wall Street expectations, but the company did not offer investors any guidance for the quarter ending in December. iPhone sales were down more than 20% year-over-year. Here’s how Apple did versus analyst expectations via Refinitiv estimates: EPS: 73 cents vs 70 cents estimated Revenue: $64.7 billion vs $63.70 billion estimated, up 1% year-over-year iPhone revenue: $26.44 billion vs. $27.93 billion estimated, down 20.7% year-over-year Services revenue: $14.55 billion vs. $14.08 billion estimated, up 16.3% year-over-year Other Products revenue: $7.88 billion vs. $7.40 billion estimated, up 20.9% year-over-year Mac revenue: $9.0 billion vs. $7.93 billion estimated, up 28% year-over-year iPad revenue: $6.8 billion vs. $6.12 billion estimated, up 46% year-over-year Gross margin: 38.2% vs. 38.1% estimated The lack of fiscal first-quarter 2021 guidance from Apple means that investors and analysts don’t get a hint at how Apple is projecting the sales performance of the iPhone 12, which went on sale in October. Apple stock dropped over 4% in extended trading. “If you look at the case count, the case counts are climbing in Western Europe. They’re climbing in the United States. And so there’s still a sufficient level of uncertainty out there… we don’t believe that’s an environment to guide into,” Apple CEO Tim Cook told CNBC’s Josh Lipton. Apple hasn’t offered guidance for the past two quarters because of uncertainty related to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, Cook said that he was optimistic about iPhone 12 sales for a number of reasons, including 5G support, carrier promotions, and a loyal install base, and said that “initial data points are really quite good.” Sales in China were a weak point for Apple. Sales in greater China, which includes Hong Kong and Taiwan, dropped to $7.95 billion from $11.13 billion a year before, over a 28% decrease. “A larger percentage of China revenue is made up of new iPhones. And so that’s the reason the number for the total quarter started with a minus sign. But given what we see in the early going with the new iPhones, we’re confident we’ll grow in Q1,” Cook told CNBC. iPhone revenue was down over 20% from the same quarter last year and came up short against Wall street expectations. However, many investors and analysts are more focused on how the iPhone 12 will sell in the coming year. Apple’s iPhones went on sale this year in October, and more models are planned for next month, meaning that sales from the new devices aren’t counted in this quarter. Cook also said that Apple wasn’t concerned about concerns that the iPhone 12, which is 5G-enabled, is outpacing the construction of 5G networks. “There are obvious places in the world where it’s more ahead than in others,” Cook said. “But we feel like we are entering sort of at exactly the right time.” Revenue for Macs and iPads both exceeded analyst expectations, most likely driven by strong work-from-home trends during the pandemic. Apple drew attention to strong results in those categories last quarter, too. Overall, Mac revenue was up 28% year-over-year and iPad revenue rose 46% from the same quarter last year. Cook hinted at future product launches in 2020, likely Mac computers that use Apple-designed chips. “Without giving away too much, I can tell you that this year has a few more exciting things in store,” Cook said. Apple released new Apple Watch Series 6 models that went on sale in September. The category that those devices are counted in for sales is called Wearables, Home, and Accessories, which came in slightly higher than expectations. The category also includes sales from headphones such as AirPods and Beats. Sales for the category were up over 20% on a year-over-year basis. Investors are always closely examining Apple’s services business, which includes subscriptions like iCloud and Apple Music, fees from the App Store paid by app developers, and licensing revenue. Services revenue exceeded Wall Street expectations and grew 16% over last year. On Friday, Apple will release bundles of its subscription services called Apple One, Cook told CNBC. The bundles vary by region but include Apple Music, iCloud storage, and Apple TV+ streaming video among other." MY COMMENT NOT too bad. In fact it seems that ALL categories of business are doing well.....except for......iPhones which are impacted by their China business. In addition it is obvious that the iPhone 12 and 5G represent the product of the future and will be a significant factor going forward..........either good or bad. Time will tell how the sales do with this new phone. If I ws this company or any other........I would not be tying my future to China for either manufacturing or customers.
NEXT up is........Google: Google revenue jumps 14% to $46 billion, stock soars https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/tech/google-earnings-antitrust-section-230/index.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "San Francisco (CNN Business)Despite a global pandemic, the biggest tech antitrust lawsuit in more than two decades and an escalating battle against accusations of censorship, Google is doing just fine. The tech giant's parent company, Alphabet, reported revenue of $46.17 billion for the three months ending in September — a 14% increase from the same period last year — highlighting its continued dominance even while facing numerous obstacles. The company also reported net income for the third quarter of $11.2 billion, blowing past analyst estimates. Alphabet (GOOGL) stock rose more than 8% in after-hours trading on Thursday. "We had a strong quarter, consistent with the broader online environment," Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google, said in a statement. "It's also a testament to the deep investments we've made in AI and other technologies." Thursday's earnings report marks a strong turnaround from the previous quarter, when Alphabet posted its first revenue decline in history as online ad spending pulled back in the early days of the pandemic. In the third quarter, however, Google's advertising revenue jumped nearly 10% year-on-year, with search advertising revenue growing 6.5% and YouTube ad revenue surging 32%. The blockbuster earnings "reflect broad based growth led by an increase in advertiser spend in Search and YouTube as well as continued strength in Google Cloud and Play," Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat said in a statement. "We remain focused on making the right investments to support long term sustainable value." The earnings came a day after Pichai faced hours of questioning from lawmakers — along with the CEOs of Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) — over their content moderation policies and accusations of political bias. Pichai defended his company's handling of content, saying it approaches its work without political bias, "full stop." "To do otherwise would be contrary to both our business interests and our mission, which compels us to make information accessible to every type of person, no matter where they live or what they believe," he added. Google was also hit with an antitrust lawsuit by the US Department of Justice last week, the largest such case against a tech company in more than two decades when Microsoft was sued. The Justice Department alleged that Google has stifled competition to maintain its powerful position in the marketplace for online search and search advertising. Google refuted those accusations, criticizing the lawsuit as "deeply flawed." "People use Google because they choose to, not because they're forced to, or because they can't find alternatives," Google's Senior Vice President for Global Affairs, Kent Walker, wrote in a blog post. Pichai echoed that sentiment during Thursday's earnings call. "We know our success in search is not guaranteed," he said. "We are proud that people choose Google search, not because they have to, but because it's helpful." The Justice Department, meanwhile, has said "nothing is off the table" when it comes to regulating the company's search dominance. Though he sought to somewhat downplay that dominance during the earnings call, Pichai also repeatedly touted the indispensability of Google search, particularly during the pandemic. "Access to information has never been more important," he said on the company's earnings call. "This year, including this quarter, showed how valuable Google's founding product, search, has been to people." The pandemic has also provided a boost to Google's myriad other services, as people continue to work and socialize from home — Pichai said views of guided meditation videos on YouTube were up 40% since mid-March, for example, and tutorials on how to make masks have more than 1 billion views. Revenue's for Google's cloud business increased 45% compared to the same quarter last year. Google and other Big Tech firms have their biggest stress test still on the horizon. The companies have spent months instituting new policies on political advertising and cracking down on misinformation ahead of the November 3 US presidential election. MY COMMENT NOT too shabby. All in all the BIG THREE reported SOLID earnings today. You will remember the many, many pundits that a few months ago were pushing an earnings DISASTER and BIG market drops at the time of third quarter earnings. They were disrespecting and downplaying second quarter earnings by saying......well.......they were good but the third quarter is going to be BAD. BUMMER........wrong yet again.
TODAY.....as we have all week......we are seeing the impact of the ELECTION on the markets. First.......an old phrase that happens to be true......."you can not fight the tape". We are in a historic period of disruption and turmoil........right now......due to the election. Earnings, news, etc, etc.......nothing else matters. We are ON TRACK for the WORST week in the DOW since March........and........even great earnings make no difference. I hate to post the following comments......Please NO POLITICS in response......I do NOT post this to be political......but I believe that the markets and investors are starting to WAKE UP to the reality of where we "MIGHT" be after next Tuesday. It is going to.......POSSIBLY....... be like the movie HANGOVER.......people waking up with........."OH SH#T"......"what did we just do". If..........BIG IF and BIG UNKNOWN........(insert party name)......wins big: Carried Interest will probably lose its tax treatment. Step up basis of assets, including stocks and funds, at death will probably end. Inheritance tax rates will go up. The estate tax exemption will be cut in half endangering family farms and small to medium family businesses. General individual and business income taxes will go up. Government regulation, red tape, and bureaucracy impacting business and investment vehicles will drastically increase AND.......the BIG ONE......capital gains taxes will go up significantly. I will not even get into all the........political.........issues that will impact our society and potential.......non business and investing changes.......BUT....the above list.......is..............just a fraction of........the potential events and changes that WILL severely impact investors and investing and business. These events will have an extremely SIGNIFICANT impact on investments and investors and business. THAT......is exactly why the markets are down and very nervous. People.......investors, business people, business owners....... are starting to face the REALITY of what this sort of stuff will mean in the investing and business world. It was easy for people to just laugh this stuff off in the business world.......and write theoretical opinion pieces....... when the election was a ways off.......now the reality is coming........and......coming very quickly like a freight train. Will "I" do anything in response........if this happens.......no. I will continue to be a long term stock and fund investor. My portfolio is ALREADY set up with companies that will continue to be the cream of the crop and dominate world wide. I will do what ALL business people and investors will do......I will set up my estate and personal affairs to take advantage of ANYTHING that can be legally taken advantage of for family and heirs.
I am CURIOUS........is there anyone on here that has taken portfolio steps due to the election? Trying to market time the election? Hedged their portfolio in some way? Sold everything? I know TomB16 is accumulating cash but has not sold anything. Personally......I have done NOTHING. There is presently.......NO......clarity in such a way that would justify doing anything.......for me. I DO expect some time period of turmoil following the election......but.......I will just hold through it. There is ALSO potential for some EXPLOSIVE gains following the election. SO......again.....I will just hold through it.
To add clarity, I've had DRIPs turned off for 20 months so dividends and cash from business operations have been trickling in for a while. At this point, we are at 25% cash and near cash. The WBI is currently at 159. This is high so our 25% cash level is probably about right. We recently participated in an IPO. It appears to be a well thought out business that will be chaired by someone I am familiar with and extensively trust. I don't care about the election and I don't care about the WBI, when it comes to buying stock. The WBI only influences our DRIPs which I see as a general market factor. I would always buy a good company at a 15% discount from retail, given the opportunity. Unfortunately, most everything has been pumped up well beyond retail, in this market climate. Once again, I do not think about stock as a bet on whether it will go up or down. I could care less about that, with the exception of the rare moments when I'm getting in or out. I care about what a business is worth. That comes down to a reasonably objective formula that takes into account stability, risk, net profit, and growth. From there, I decide the discount we are looking for on that company and then I lay in way, like a snake in the grass. lol! So, again, it's not that I wouldn't buy anything right now. It's a matter of needing a decent price. If I was just starting out, I would not be nearly so conservative but with plenty of corporate holdings to keep us nicely buoyant through retirement, I see no need to buy at elevated prices.
I’m still up 35% ytd on my investments. So I’m not selling anything. I was very very tempted to buy today but my strategy has been wait till you get close to zero to buy. It had done me a WORLD OF GOOD during the peak of the March selloff. This is bad. Simple. but not bad enough to turn to good
RED, red, red.......today. I had two positive positions......Google and Honeywell. AND.......with my very concentrated stock portfolio I got hammered by the SP500 today by 1.59%. Oh Well.......I accept that as a........once in a while.......impact of what I own. At least......the week is over and we move on to the election next week. SP500 was DOWN this week by 5.64%. It is now positive for the year by +1.21%. I just saw an article that I can not read that says: Traders are buzzing about a mysterious market whale that's placing massive bets on stocks skyrocketing post-election I am NOT posting a link since it is a "pay site"......here are the basics: "Traders are buzzing about a market whale making enormous bets this week on a post-election stock surge. A single investor appears to have spent more than $300 million this week buying up tens of thousands of S&P 500 call spreads. The trades share distinct features that caught the attention of traders and brokers: Large, aggressive, short-term call spreads that will profit from the S&P 500 rising significantly following the Nov. 3 election. The trades were all placed with electronic trading platform Interactive Brokers — an unusual venue for such large SPX options trades, experts told Business Insider." It will be very interesting if the press reports on how this all turns out. ACTUALLY.......I would NEVER consider this.......but......it is probably a pretty good bet. I suspect there "might" be a BIG RALLY if Biden wins.........and.........a BIG RALLY if Trump wins. Or......it just might be someone that has so much money that this is just chump change for them.
HERE......is more.....IRRELEVANT.....good news. Nothing matters at the moment when it comes to short term "stuff"........we are now.........oficially.........in ELECTION HELL.......maximum chaos. REALLY.......at this point I am way beyond caring......I just want to get it over with and move on. Compliments of The Wall Street Journal: "U.S. households boosted spending for a fifth straight month, helping the economy dig further out from the deep hole created by the pandemic. The Commerce Department said personal-consumption expenditures—a measure of household spending on goods and services—rose 1.4% last month. Consumers have increased spending since the summer, although the pace of gains slowed into early fall. Personal income—a measure of what households receive from wages and salaries, government aid and investments—was up 0.9% last month, after a sharp decline in August, rising on higher pay and remaining pandemic-related aid."
I think that the BIGGEST fear that everyone has is that THIS is the correction that everyone warned us about and speculated on and that THIS is the one that will bring down the tech markets to post 2000 bubble levels. Ive heard those same correction warnings every single damn time that the market sold off now. And guess what EVEN WHEN THE MARKET TANKED earlier this year the results weren’t the same as post 2000 in regards to tech. In fact they did the exact opposite and boosted the tech market and got it to new levels. So no I’m not worried at the least by now about my tech positions. They will he just fine. They’ll take a beating and the Robin Hood kids will get back in the game probably before I finish typing this post. God bless them and thank you for helping me get richer
YES......a BIG thank you to the Robinhood guys. AND......no I dont think there is going to be any sort of nasty stock market event. There is PLENTY of pent up demand.....pent up money.......and hungry investors. And......the predicted third quarter earnings collapse is NOT going to happen. We are going to SLIDE on forward to the forth quarter.........and........onward.
In my world, the thought was q3 would be significantly bigger than q2 but still down, year on year. Not my prediction, specifically, but a pretty common point of view. In other words, bang on. Now, one year on, many companies have earned less than they did a year ago but now have significantly higher valuations. Hence, the cash in our account. I'm not expecting anything specific but this doesn't seem like a good time to step into the market in a significant way.
ACTUALLY played a show yesterday. A regional show about 100 miles away. AND........wow......I have another next week and one the week after........also regional........each about 75 miles away. STICKING with local, local, local............REAL ESTATE in Central Texas. BIG NEWS.......our area of 3000 homes now has.......6 homes actively for sale. That is an increase of 2 whole homes. I see from the data that now the median home in this area is $570,000 up 19% for the past 12 months. (this number must be very outdated since the LOWEST priced home in our large neighborhood is $550,000, the highest is $4.1MIL) The price per sq ft is now up by 15% over the past 12 months. This is the HOTTEST real estate market that I have experienced in my lifetime.........and.........we have been in some hot market areas in the past. It appears that there.......WILL NOT......be any sort of change even during the holiday season and winter. Just like last year.......it looks like prices will stay strong and listings will be way down. A TOTAL sellers market. That......mythical.......median priced home will come with about $14,250 of property taxes and about $2000 of HO insurance. So taxes and insurance will run you about $1187 per month. That $570,000 will run you about $1900 per month for your mortgage after 20% down. So a buyer is looking at a total payment of about $3087 per month. Unsurprisingly........with the vast number of out of state and tech company buyers.......the average house selling is either all cash or has a very significant down payment. Bidding wars are common and expected. I would not be surprised at all to see this HOT market continue for at least 1-2 years and perhaps longer.......especially for closer in homes such as our area.
No sh**t! We were looking for a house in Uptown Westerville. The houses in the area were going for 200-250 up until now. Look at this one house here, was listed 2 days ago and was snatched instantly, the broker we work with said they received a cash offer HIGHER than the sellers price. INSANE. just look at the chart demonstrating the jump in price
EXACTLY.......Zukodany. People have to raise their price range or lower their expectations. People from all over the country have discovered scenic small to medium size towns and cities all over the country and are moving. The number of ALL cash buyers is staggering. The KEY.......to me......is to NOT get too hung up on the OLD price levels and drag out your home search too long. My niece did that and within about 6-9 months got priced out of the market and after that it took her three years to........finally........find a house that she could afford.........which......was a lot less of a house. She and her husband got caught in an expolsive market and were not able to adjust their preconceived thinking. We went through the same thing when we downsized and bought our house in May of 2019. Luckily we could pay all cash even though our old house was not even on the market yet. We bought the new house in early May of 2019 and ended up selling the old house in October of 2019. I did a REALLY DEEP DIVE into the housing market at that time and was POSITIVE that the data showed that the house we were buying should be priced at about $80,000 below where it was listed. We made an offer at that level and the realtor refused to even convey it. We ended up paying FULL PRICE........and.......we are lucky we did. When we find a house that we like we are very decisive and move quickly. We went from making an offer about $80,000 below list to a full price offer in about 2 days. We bought this house while it was still "coming soon"...........AND.........we are very glad that we did. Over the past year the value of similar homes to the one we bought has continued.....through the roof. Similar homes to ours are now selling for $50,000 over what we paid.......even though......we overpaid by at least $50,000 to $80,000. SO.......in this sort of explosive market.....it is my opinion that you just have to bite the bullet...........pay the price..........and.....realize that prices will catch up and fly past what you paid within a year or two max. I am AMAZED at the number of all cash buyers that are out there now. Mostly due to people moving from HIGH price states and having a big chunk of cash to spend on a home.
Truly amazing how very little we know from the biased media about consumer spending in this country during Covid. When everything will all be said and done I think we will discover that there was a TON of cash being poured EVERYWHERE. from the little things like the collectible market, through the stock market, and to big transactions like we see now in the housing market.
The above is a very.......astute......observation Zukodany. I had not thought of it that way. I believe you are correct.
WELL.......it is the.........DAY BEFORE. This little article seems so simplistic.......and......of course, everyone reading it will say......everyone knows that. BUT.....investor actual results and behavior continues to show that just about EVERYONE may know this BUT nearly NO ONE is able to successfully do it: The secret to making better investment moves when markets are in turmoil: Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disc...ock-market-panic-morning-brief-105549588.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) You don’t have to panic if you have a disciplined plan The stock market got slammed last week. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 5.6%, the index’s worst week since March. For investors, it can be extremely unsettling to watch your account balances shrink so quickly. And unsettled investors often make ill-informed, rash decisions as their instincts become biased. And for that reason, it’s critical to have a well-thought-out plan for these uncomfortable scenarios. An investment plan typically includes a long-term strategy, but often also includes room to make shorter-term tactical moves to exploit near-term opportunities. As UBS CIO of Global Wealth Management Mark Haefele wrote just before last week’s selloff: “Election (and fiscal) uncertainty may continue to add volatility leading up to the 3 November election, offering entry points to establish long-term positions.” It was notable because he was saying that the following two weeks (yes, two weeks) could come with a significant selloff, in which case the move is not to panic. The move is to buy. Back when Haefele wrote that note, we knew of a bunch of things that could exacerbate market volatility in the near-term: already-high expectations for earnings and GDP; short-term uncertainties and longer-term risks tied to the U.S. elections; much needed fiscal stimulus that continues to be put off; COVID-19 infections on the rise; and increasingly bullish equity positioning. While markets are never guaranteed to do anything, it certainly shouldn’t have surprised anyone to see stocks take a hit. Indeed if you consider the history of the stock market, then you know you should always be ready for a big, scary stock market selloff. And so as markets tumbled, Haefele followed up late Wednesday advising clients to use the volatility as an entry point. “We find that clients who stick to a disciplined financial plan through all market conditions outperform,” Haefele said in an email to Yahoo Finance on Friday. “First, it's important for clients to maintain enough cash on hand to meet short-term needs. That prevents the need to sell potentially high return assets — such as stocks – during periods of falling markets. Second, it's important to avoid panic selling, which can also mean crystallizing losses and missing out on the bounce back in markets. Finally, you can take advantage of volatility to step up your purchases and gain exposure at better levels.” Of course, no one is suggesting that the market will or must start rallying from here. And not all financial plans are about buying. Maybe you’re expecting to retire this year and you don’t have time to recoup further losses to your portfolio, and so you sell. Or maybe you’re already all-in on the stock market, and your best move is to do nothing. The details always differ. But many folks aren’t thick-skinned and level-headed enough that they can see their stock portfolio sink 5.6%, and then make a decision that isn’t informed by panic. At least a little bit. And indeed, panicking is a horrible investment strategy that results in missing out on much of what’s historically been an upward trending market. So if you’re going to be in the market for years to come, make sure to have a plan. “Historically, the best strategy has been to put capital to work in markets as soon as it is available,” Haefele wrote on Wednesday. “However, for investors seeking to avoid the risk of bad timing, averaging into markets in a disciplined manner (i.e. with a set schedule) can reduce the cost of missing out on gains. Continuing to invest through periods of market weakness means investors can enter at more attractive rates.“ MY COMMENT If the futures today turn out to be the REALITY by the time we get to the close......the mysterious investor that I reference a few posts above is going to make some really serious money. We are now at the END OF THE BEGINNING in terms of the potential post election turmoil. We will know more in a day or two. Last week SUCKED......it will be interesting to see where we end up this week. Earnings will continue to come in.......and.......come in BIG. BUT......the focus for investors and others in the financial world will be extremely short term......and......that sort of short term focus is often a very dangerous time for people that can not disregard their emotions.
