Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 2nd! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Clorox, PayPal, Mondelez International, Estee Lauder, Marathon Petroleum, Wingstop, Waste Management, Skyworks Solutions, Transocean, Rambus, Trivago, Loews Insurance, Ingersoll Rand, Rambus, FirstEnergy, AMC Network, Assurant 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending Tuesday Election Day Earnings: Humana, Fox Corp, Bayer, Sysco, BNP Paribas, Gartner, Eaton, Thomson Reuters, Exelon, McKesson, Bausch Health, Expeditors International, Progressive, Super Micro, Prudential Financial Light vehicle sales 10:00 a.m. Factory orders Wednesday Fed begins two-day meeting Earnings: Qualcomm, Allstate, Expedia, Hilton Worldwide, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Wendy’s, Perrigo, Zynga, Manitowoc, Public Storage, Pioneer Natural Resources, GoDaddy, Qorvo, Tribune Publishing, MetLife, Fitbit 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 8:30 a.m. International trade Thursday Earnings: Bristol-Myers Squibb, AstraZeneca, Booking Holdings, Square TripAdvisor, Uber. Roku, Electronic Arts, T-Mobile, AIG, Zillow, Live Nation Entertainment, EOG Resources, Tanger Factory Outlet, XPO Logistics, Cigna, Regeneron, Alibaba, General Motors, Cardinal Health, Duke Energy, Papa John’s, ArcelorMittal, Dun and Bradstreet, Murphy Oil, Cardinal Health, Sempra Energy, SeaWorld, AmerisourceBergen 8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs 2:00 p.m. FOMC statement 2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing Friday Earnings: Allianz, Virtu Financial, Zimmer Biomet, Honda 8:30 a.m. Employment report 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade 3:00 p.m. Consumer credit
Shocktober: Stocks Suffer Worst Pre-Election Plunge In History The Hunt for a Red October is over... must be the Russians... Global stocks suffered their worst week since March as it appears the constant liquidity pukage is losing its impact... Source: Bloomberg And US stocks (down 6-7% across the board) also saw their biggest weekly drawdowns in 7 months... In fact, as Bloomberg notes, the second half of October - essentially since earnings reports began to flood in - the S&P 500 is down 5%. That is the worst performance for the final two weeks of the month of October since 1987's 10.9% plunge - a year that certainly had other extenuating circumstances to account for such a disastrous performance in the back-half of the month. While it bears little resemblance to this year’s market context, know that in 1987 equities did not bounce back by the end of that year. Source: Bloomberg But we note that the S&P was down 9 straight days into 2016 election... will the pattern repeat this time? Source: Bloomberg This was also the worst week for any balanced portfolio as aggregate stock and bond returns were the worst since March... Source: Bloomberg Stocks were also down for the 2nd straight month (Dow was the laggard with it's worst month since March) leaving the S&P barely holding green YTD. Small Caps bucked the trend with a modest 1.5% gain on the month... Source: Bloomberg The Dow and the Nasdaq are both in correction, down 10% or more from their recent highs. All the US majors are at critical technical levels (Dow at 200DMA, S&P and Nasdaq < 100DMA, Russell ~100DMA) Russell 2000 dramatically outperformed Nasdaq for the second straight month... Source: Bloomberg European markets bloodbath'd even more this week (worst since March also) and worst month since March (closing at lowest since May)... Source: Bloomberg It seem Einhorn was right - the launch of the SPAC ETF marked the top... Source: Bloomberg Back in the US, FANG Stocks ended down for the second month in a row... Source: Bloomberg AAPL has slumped into a bear market from its early September highs... Source: Bloomberg Rough day for Jack Dorsey's net worth... Bank stocks ended unch on the month... Source: Bloomberg VIX jumped almost 6 vols on the week - its biggest rise in vol since March... And the VIX curve is now in full backwardation (with the forward curve similar to how it was a month ago but the spike in front-month vol must have crushed any vol carry traders)... Source: Bloomberg And while credit spreads have started to crack wider, compared to equity risk, there is a long way to go... Source: Goldman On the week, Treasury yields were practically unch - ramping higher after gains early on as liquidations appeared widespread... Source: Bloomberg On the month, yields were notably higher (30Y +18bps) and the curve steeper... Source: Bloomberg Not exactly a 'rout' in bonds... Source: Bloomberg Despite gains this week, the Dollar was lower on the month (after September's big surge) for the 6th month lower in the last 7... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos were very mixed this week with a major rotation apparent as altcoins were offered and Bitcoin bid... Source: Bloomberg On the month, Bitcoin led the way, with Ripple lagging... Source: Bloomberg Ethereum notably underperformed after a solid DeFi-driven surge in July/August... Source: Bloomberg Crude was clubbed like a baby seal this week (PMs also slipped lower), and also on the month (but PMs managed to hold)... Source: Bloomberg WTI traded down to a $34 handle this week - its lowest level since May... Finally, just on thing to think... "mother's milk" appears to have left the building Source: Bloomberg This could never happen again, right? Source: Bloomberg Oh, and don't panic!! The "Casedemic" will be over soon... Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
November Almanac: Usually a Top Month in Election Years November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse. November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-two DJIA (since 1950), NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 2000 (since 1979) month. November is best for S&P 500 (since 1950) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). November is a mixed bag in presidential election years. DJIA has advanced in 10 of the last 17 election years since 1952 with an average gain of 1.7%. Significant DJIA declines occurred in 2008 (-5.3%) and 2000 (-5.1%). For S&P 500 November ranks best with a similar record to DJIA. NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 are not as strong ranking #7, #3 and #6 respectively. Fewer years of data (12 for NASDAQ and 10 for Russell indices) combined with sizable losses in 2000 and 2008 drag down rankings and average gains when compared to DJIA and S&P 500. Whatever the Outcome, Day Before Election Day Historically Bullish Looking back at the last seventeen presidential elections since 1952, the day before Election Day has a clear bullish bias. DJIA and S&P 500 have declined just three times and average gains of 0.51% and 0.44% respectively. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are slightly weaker, but still bullish. Election Day (or the day after prior to 1980) leans bullish, but with a greater frequency of losses. Incumbent party victories are shaded in light grey. GDP Bounces Back The outbreak of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns triggered the largest quarter over-quarter decline in gross domestic product (GDP) since WWII, so perhaps it comes as no surprise that the following quarter tallied the sharpest rebound in that same time period. GDP expanded 33.1% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, ahead of Bloomberg consensus expectations of 32%, fueled by the continued reopening of businesses and reversing much of the economic fallout stemming from COVID-19-related lockdowns. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, consumer spending—the largest contributor to GDP in the US and roughly 70% of economic output—rebounded in a powerful fashion in the third quarter. However, spending numbers were uneven, with a considerably larger portion spent on goods rather than services—consistent with the continued behavioral and business restriction effects on these industries. Further, the timing of spending was also fairly uneven, as much of the growth in consumer spending came in the early weeks of the third quarter and tapered off in recent weeks where the effects of fiscal stimulus and rising new COVID-19 cases influenced consumer behavior. “GDP rebounded stronger than expected in the third quarter, but the big question on everyone’s mind is whether the economy can remain on firm ground in the fourth quarter and into 2021,” stated LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Barring a new round of fiscal stimulus, it’s likely that growth will taper off in the fourth quarter, but we still don’t expect a double-dip recession.” Regardless of the state of economic momentum, it is remarkable that GDP is already only about 3.5% away from recovering the entire pandemic losses. The resilience of US consumers has been the top story of the recovery, even with the historic fiscal stimulus. The surge in growth in the third quarter may also have political implications. As we noted in our recent Weekly Market Commentary: Are the Polls Wrong Again? the average GDP growth in the second and third quarters of election years can have predictive power for who wins the election, with stronger growth favoring incumbents. However, we also point out that recessions close to elections have favored challengers, sending some conflicting market signals heading into Election Day! As the economy moves forward in the fourth quarter, we’ll continue to monitor real-time data indicators to gauge the impact of rising COVID-19 cases on consumer and business behavior. "Quitters" Wed, Oct 21, 2020 Like an old pair of "quitters" that keep falling down because their elasticity is shot, the market has had its own trouble staying up over the last few trading days. Today isn't over yet, but if the S&P 500 finishes around current levels it will mark the fourth straight day of finishing down at least half of one percent from its intraday high. Compared to the three days before, today's pullback from an intraday high has actually been pretty mild up to this point. Following Monday's 2%+ decline from the intraday high shortly after the open, yesterday, the S&P 500 traded down close to 1% from its afternoon high. These two reversals followed Friday's late-day sell-off when the S&P 500 finished the day down 0.75% from its intraday high. While it's disheartening to see the market erasing early gains as the day goes on, it's helpful to put the last four trading days into perspective. Over the last 25 years, it hasn't been uncommon for the S&P 500 to finish the day down at least 0.5% from an intraday high for four days in a row. The current streak, if it holds, would be the 158th such streak of four or more days. That works out to more than six a year. There have also been a number of streaks that were much longer than the current one. In fact, it was only a month ago that the S&P 500 went 11 straight days of finishing the day down at least 0.5% from its intraday high, and besides that streak, there have been five other streaks that spanned ten or more trading days. Slight Dip In Consumer Confidence Tue, Oct 27, 2020 Consumer Confidence for the month of October was released earlier today and showed a slight dip relative to September. The headline index dropped from 101.3 down to 100.9 compared to expectations for a reading of 102.0. Given the rising number of cases and the upcoming election, it's not too surprising to see confidence come in a bit, so a decline of this magnitude isn't all that concerning. What is notable, though, is that even though Consumer Confidence remains right near post-COVID highs, it hasn't bounced all that much off its lows. Breaking out this month's report by the sentiment of consumers towards both how they feel now and what they expect in the future, the Present Situation Index rose from 98.9 up to 104.6 while the Expectations component dropped from 102.9 down to 98.4. The drop in the Expectations component of this month's report looks like it's a partial reflection of growing uncertainty regarding COVID and the election as we head into the colder months of November and December. In looking at the spread between Present Conditions and Expectations, it moved back into positive territory this month after dropping deeply into negative territory earlier this year. What's interesting to note about current levels is that in every prior recession since the late 1960s, by the time the spread moved back into positive territory after turning negative, the recession was already well in the rearview mirror. Sentiment towards jobs also suggests a relatively positive trend. At the current level of 26.5, the Jobs Plentiful index is still far from its 40+ reading before COVID, but it did increase again in October as it has now done in four of the last five months. While it's by no means a strong reading at current levels, it hasn't been getting worse either. Looking at past recessions, it wasn't until well after the recession ended that the Jobs Plentiful index started to rebound. Industrials Malfunction Wed, Oct 28, 2020 With poorly received earnings reports from 3M (MMM) and Caterpillar (CAT) and general weakness overall, Tuesday was just a bad day for the Industrials sector. Just five stocks in the sector were up on the day and the sector overall was down 2.2% compared to the S&P 500 which was down just 0.3%. The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the S&P 500 and the Industrials sector over the last year. Positive readings indicate the S&P 500 outperforming the Industrials sector and negative readings indicate that the Industrials sector outperformed the S&P 500. With the S&P 500 outperforming the Industrials sector by 1.88 percentage points on Tuesday, it was the widest performance gap (in the S&P 500's favor) since 9/21. Even more notable, though, was the fact that there have only been three other days in the last year where the Industrials sector underperformed the S&P 500 by a wider margin. For the sector as a whole, it currently finds itself in a precarious position. After breaking its uptrend off the March lows on 9/21, the Industrials sector bounced back and rallied back to its former uptrend line, and while it just recently made a post-COVID high, the rally ran out of steam right at the former uptrend line. In the pullback that has followed, the sector closed yesterday right at a secondary line of support from the June lows. If this level doesn't hold through today's close, the technical picture for the sector will look a lot different than the way it looked just a few weeks ago. All or Nothing Days Back on the Rise Wed, Oct 28, 2020 The S&P 500's A/D line for the day (number of advancing stocks minus number of declining stocks) currently stands at about -460, which would be the weakest one-day reading since June. Today's A/D reading also is notable in that it represents the tenth 'all or nothing' day for the S&P 500 since the index's last peak on 9/2. We consider 'all or nothing' days to be those days where the S&P 500's daily A/D reading is either above +400 or below -400. To put the frequency of 'all or nothing' days into perspective, while there have been ten in the last forty trading days, in the forty trading days before that there weren't any. The chart below shows the percentage of 'all or nothing' days on a 50-day rolling basis. The current pace of 20% is still well off the extraordinary level of 44% we saw back in late April/early May, but it is still relatively high. Including today, there have now been 41 'all or nothing' days so far in 2020. If the current pace for the entire year keeps up that will put us on pace for fifty days this year. If the current pace keeps up and we do reach 50 'all or nothing' days this year, it will be the third-highest annual total behind 2011 (70) and 2008 (52), but even if there isn't another 'all or nothing' day this year, 2020 would still rank fifth behind the years from 2008 through 2011. Earnings and Economics Diverge Wed, Oct 28, 2020 This earnings season, we have frequently mentioned how beat rates have continued to rise relentlessly. From our Earnings Explorer database, our 3-month rolling EPS beat rate currently stands at a record high of 78.19%. That is nearly 20 percentage points higher than the historical average of 59.37%. The sales beat rate is not at a record, but it too is elevated at 69.09% versus the historical average of 56.45%. That means that of the companies that have reported earnings over the past three months, a massive proportion are exceeding consensus sales and EPS estimates. While earnings beat rates have continued to grind higher, economic data is another story. The Citi Economic Surprise Index basically tracks macroeconomic data and how it comes in relative to forecasts. Higher readings indicate the data is trending stronger than expected and vice versa for negative readings. With the unprecedented shock to macroeconomic data in 2020, this index for the United States plummeted, but that was followed by a sharp rebound to record highs. Although the index for the US remains higher than anything prior to the pandemic, it has been heading lower since the summer. In other words, economic data is still coming in better than expected but is not massively exceeding expectations to the degree it was back in the spring and early summer. The two charts below compare EPS and revenue beat rates to the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Comparing the two series to the Citi Economic Surprise Index shows that while EPS beat rate has been somewhat connected (correlation: +0.325)) there is very little in the way of correlation between the Surprise Index and the revenue beat rate (+0.084). Given that EPS figures are typically easier to massage than revenues, that was a bit of a surprise. What is notable about the recent decline in the Citi Economic Surprise Index is that in prior periods where it became elevated and then pulled back as it did in (2003, 2009, and 2018), the EPS beat rate typically didn't peak and start to trend lower for another few months.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 10.30.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 10.30.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for October 30th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.1.20 Video from ShadowTrader (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 11.2.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 11.2.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 11.3.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 11.3.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 11.4.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 11.4.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 11.5.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 11.5.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 11.6.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 11.6.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($PYPL $SQ $BABA $CLX $ROKU $W $PTON $QCOM $WING $SWKS $CVS $GOLD $NET $SPCE $GM $HZNP $LL $MPC $AZN $WM $TTD $EL $DBX $AYX $ON $ZNGA $CWH $AMCX $MELI $SEDG $REGN $CPE $LDOS $AMRN $UBER $BMY $KPTI $LITE $HUM $WEN $BHC $MCK $CPLP) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning November 2nd, 2020 <-- click there to view!
this is not consultation or advice. Dow: Dow show stop signal, it can not break the red line(low target indicator). The red candle (in the black border), show that Dow don't want go down. as long as the price stay under the EMA(orange) and the dots(in the red border) are red, the trend is bearish. Nasdaq: I think that nasdaq going to meet the red line(low target indicator) at level 10,551-10,991. as long as the price is under the EMA line(orange) and the dots on the halfway indicator(blue) are red, the rend is bearish. S&P500: I think that S&P500 will meet the low target indicator(red line) soon. as long as the price is under the EMA line(orange) and the dots on the halfway indicator(blue) are red, the rend is bearish.
Market bouncing back a little bit today after a brutal week technology underperforming a little bit though. Obviously a big week ahead with the election and the FED decision coming up, should be a fun week for the market
this is not consultation or advice. when the price meet one of the indicator' the trend is stop and new trend begin. Dow: Dow still in bearish trend as long as the index below the EMA(orange line) and the dots on the halfway indicator(blue line) are red. if the index go above the EMA indicator, the first target will be the half way indicator. when the index go above the halfway indicator and turning dots on the halfway indicator from red to green, it will be sign for bullish trend and the target will be the upper target indicator (green line). S&P500: the index almost touch the low target indicator(red line), and go up. as long as the index below the EMA, and the dots on the halfway indicator are red, the trend is bearish. nasdaq: the index stay in bearish trend as long as the index below the EMA, and the dots on the halfway indicator are red.
Let’s see if we can get some clarity on who will be our President for the next 4 years tonight even if they can declare who will be the winner yet After the market rallying for the past 2 days, I am not so sure if we will see a big relief rally though
This market makes no sense. First people were scared if Biden won the markets would crash so it sold off. Now the markets are rallying because Biden is apparently expected to win and if he does it’s expected we will get a record stimulus.
I had entered long the SPX last week at 3375. I decided to focus on profit taking and exited today. Not as much profit as I'd like--but I'm all out and ready for another good entry. It would be nice for the SPX to hit 3300 again. That might be a good entry point for a fresh start, long.
this is not consultation or advice. when the price meet one of the indicator, the trend is stop and new trend begin. Dow: Dow go above the EMA(orange line) and stop on halfway indicator(blue line). if Dow go above Halfway indicator, I think the next target will be the high target indicator (green line). If Dow go back below EMA, then the target will be the low target indicator(red line). S&P500: S&P500 go above the EMA(orange line) and stop on halfway indicator(blue line). if S&P500 go above Halfway indicator, I think the next target will be the high target indicator (green line). If Dow go back below EMA, then the target will be the low target indicator(red line). nasdaq: nasdaq stop on halfway indicator(blue line). if nasdaq go above Halfway indicator, and above EMA, I think the next target will be the high target indicator (green line). as long as nasdaq below EMA, the target will be the low target indicator(red line).
Up against this downtrend line right now. Peek above and fail in the overnight session. If it continues to hold then the market can only go down.
