Tesla is capacity constrained so EV tax credits will hurt them, by nature of helping their competition. Also, I think the tax credit was rolled off too quickly. It should probably phase out at 1M vehicles, which would still help Tesla's competitors but not Tesla. I'd rather see oil subsidies ended but that seems unlikely with either candidate. Biden: 100% clean energy by 2035 -> I doubt anyone understands how much that will stimulate the nuclear industry. I have no stance against nuclear but I see a candidate saying green, the man buns see solar and windmills, while new generation will be primarily SMRs. 0.5M public charging stations by 2030 -> It's a good idea, fraught with problems, and probably not realistic but not far off, either. Also, incentivizing this will lead to inefficiencies such as chargers installed in non-optimal locations and have big potential to unbalance the grid. It should be implemented based on demand, not an incentive. Broadened tax credit -> I think the tax credit was probably mostly OK but should have been extended to 1M cars. That would still leave Tesla out but Tesla no longer needs the tax credit. Reducing carbon fuel subsidies -> This makes a lot of sense to me, beyond incentivizing anything green. Trump: No new green incentives -> I don't believe incentives are needed, at this time. If it wasn't for Tesla, incentives would be desperately needed. Continued oil industry incentives -> I'm not a fan of incentives, particularly for a 120 year old industry. On the other hand, loss of these incentives will hurt domestic automakers so badly the layoffs will be a humanitarian crisis. Tom: Would like less incentives everywhere -> EVs needed incentives but I'd hate to see much expansion of any incentive program, particularly anything that will last forever like oil industry incentives. Tesla is capacity constrained so mostly insulated from policy changes -> The biggest impact to Tesla on policy changes will come from support or undermining of their EV competition. Long term, none of this conversation matters. Nuclear is in our future -> Few people understand how utilities think. They have very little ability to take a chance on solar and/or wind. Less carbon means more nuclear. The idea of a blackout, even once every 10 years because of long term cloud cover and/or insufficient wind makes these a non option. Blackouts cost huge money, are a huge safety hazard, and have overhead few understand. Batteries might allow enough notice for a utility to power up combined cycle gas generation (30m to minimum operation, 4h to full) which would buy time to power up coal fired generation (24h to minimum operation, 48h to full). It would be nice to have no coal or gas in our future. Running coal and/or gas less than three days per year would reduce emissions 99% and cover the corner cases. Alas, policy will be written to allow for 0% coal or gas and that means nuclear. Wind and solar prosperity depends on having a bit of carbon producing generation -> Legislation mandating 95% emission reduction would cause a solar and wind explosion. Legislation mandating 100% emission reduction would cause a nuclear explosion. Ah.... you know what I mean. If we mandate 95% emission reduction, will that stop nuclear expansion -> No because utilities know that, sooner or later, Lance Kale will be elected and mandate 0 emissions which will strand the gas plants which enable the solar and wind.
That is blasphemy to the tree huggers out here on the west coast. Nonetheless, your essay was well written and logical.
You are a man, wise beyond my yrs, @TomB16...per your last post. Im too lazy to quote and we dont need the redundancy. But the nuclear spill is spot on. Even heard my boy elon mention it, from a (i think) 2016 talk. About how its in our future. Places like i think he said italy where chances of natural disasters are small, would be ideal places for it. my take away is use nuclear but intelligently. Maybe a seismic hotbed, or hurricane zone isnt ideal, but it has a place.
A couple of you seem interested in my grid transformation musings so I shall continue. One of the first PowerPack installations is part of a solar farm on the island of Kauai. The island used to produce power with diesel generation. Diesel was extremely cost prohibitive, due the cost of shipping to a remote island. Tesla's solar/battery project almost completely replaced the diesel generator, reducing both costs and emissions. The generator is still needed, though. I'd like to get an update on the Kauai project. It would be nice to find out how much they've had to run the generator since 2017. Unfortunately, I've never heard more. The point is, this project is not zero emission. In order to cover every corner case, they would need vastly more storage and probably a bit more solar, as well. If Kauai were to mandate zero emission, they would need a lot of nuclear power and the solar would be of dubious value. Where then, does the Tesla distributed solar power plant fit into future grids? The DSPP is useful but it would need to have a lot more storage to be a base load generator. At the moment, it doesn't make sense in this capacity. Nuclear is the future and there's not much alternative, regardless of the prevailing wind of politics. One day, DSPP will make sense as base load but I suspect that day is more than a decade away. Today, DSPP makes sense for these reasons: - optimize grid loading by lowering peaks and raising the load floor, improving transmission efficiency - base generation no longer needs to be sized for peak loads but for average loads, more efficiently solving the peak problem than combined cycle - solar makes a lot of sense for EV charging, based on the large storage capacity of EVs and infrequent need for full charging DSPP is the future and it has a place on the grid and there is a ton of need to expand this sort of peaker replacement and generation but I don't see how it it can carry base load in the next decade, barring astonishing improvements in the cost of energy storage.
I prefer to not mix markets with politics but that's not really possible. & no matter who wins teh US election the EV Sector will continue to be strong imo. Saying that here's an American Company with a Global Footprint https://ideanomics.com/divisions/mobile-energy-global/
Thousands of Teslas are pouring out of Giga Shanghai each week for export to Europe. A month from now, we are going to see a huge spike in Tesla sales. Suddenly, the European demand problem will be solved and a new negative narrative will fill the void. Taking a wild guess, based on ship counts and capacity estimates, I speculate Tesla is shipping Model 3 to Europe at a rate of roughly 4K per week. Giga Shanghai is online. [Edit: Given the build/ship rate, it seems likely Tesla has another GA line up and running that is completely dedicated to building the European version]
Im sorry. DSPP? Is that direct source power plant? Also, i have been watching the FSD videos. They are nice. They have already updated and are continuing to update it like twice a week or more. I think it was every 3 to 5 days. The information inflow increase from the beta drop seems to be vastly improving the system by the minute. It stands to reason seeing the architecture for the dojo.
I've somewhat crapped on the PowerWall/Solar Roof idea, saying it won't be enough to avert nuclear unless a small amount of emissions are allowed. Why then, do we continue to pursue Solar/Battery? The Hornsdale distributed solar power plant is intended to fit out 50,000 homes with solar and battery storage for a total of more than 250MW of solar generation and close to 1GWh of storage. What's more, the power plant will be sitting right beside the load. This is on top of the 200MWh of storage the Hornsdale wind farm. This will feed a grid that connects roughly 1.7M people. I don't know how much industrial use they have, so it would be difficult to judge the impact of these systems, but I would guess they will comfortably supply 20% of their power needs from solar/wind/battery.
China’s electric car strategy is starting to go global – and the U.S. is lagging behind https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/23/chinas-electric-car-strategys-implications-for-us-energy-security.html fyi, $IDEX – Monday Nov 9 Q3 Results MEG delivered a total of 626 EV units, plus 440 EV units in Q3 which are pending delivery. https://investors.ideanomics.com/2020-10-15-Ideanomics-Announces-MEG-September-and-Q3-Sales-Activity
I doubt many people realize how conservative power utilities are and how loathe they are to onboard new technology, particularly with generation. Getting wind and solar online was a big deal, back in the day. Now, Tesla's plan to scale involves power utilities changing their operating model. Nobody but Tesla would have a chance at this. Think of the franchise value Tesla brings to the table, just to be able to have utilities consider it. Even at that, Tesla needs a brave utility to be first. That has been Neoen.
Got my bottle ordered. Grr. Tried to insert image. Im too dumb. Tesla tequila now for sale in the shop. Its actually a great looking bottle. Expensive but i have plans for it. Im nearly positive its limited. Get it while they got it if u want it.
Given the uncertainty and tensions amidst the US election any eruption could cause severe corrections or even a temporary flash crash on the markets. And as you all know, this would of course affect Tesla's stock price too in the short run. IF (!) this should occur then this technical video goes through the grand refill levels to add onto any long position. A Black Friday sale, if you may. It start somewhere in the middle, however I recommend you to watch the 3-minute introduction to get full context.
Delivery data for Tesla and NIO's new energy electric vehicles in the Chinese market have been increasing.
Tesla has now installed over 20,000 charge points. I see this as a problem. They were at 16,000 charge points in May of 2019. They have added 25% more charge points while almost doubling the number of Teslas on the road. They have never had enough charge points in congested areas and the problem seems to be getting worse, based on Columbus day congestion. Their portable SuperChargers with a MegaPack on a flatbed help a bit on the big holiday weekends but don't solve the problem. They need to spur that New York team into a higher gear.
