Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 16th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Vodafone, Casper Sleep, Aecom, Tyson Foods, Palo Alto Networks, Baidu, SmileDirectClub 8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing 1:45 p.m. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly 2:00 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida Tuesday Earnings: Walmart, Home Depot, Kohl’s, La-Z-Boy, Aramark 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. Import prices 8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 10:00 a.m. Business inventories 10:00 a.m. NAHB survey 1:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly panel on employment 2:00 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams 4:00 p.m. TIC data Wednesday Earnings: NVIDIA, Target, Lowe’s, TJX, L Brands, Copa Holdings, Shoe Carnival, Jack in the Box 8:30 a.m. Housing starts 10:00 a.m. QSS 10:00 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans 12:15 p.m. New York Fed’s Williams 7:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic Thursday Earnings: BJ’s Wholesale, Macy’s, NetEase, Intuit, Ross Stores, Workday, Helmerich and Payne, BellRing Brands 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing 8:30 a.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester 10:00 a.m. Existing home sales 12:35 p.m. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Friday Earnings: Foot Locker, Buckle
Energy Stocks Soar To Best Week Ever As Vaccine Hope Vanquishes Fear The week's big headline remained the positive vaccine news, which sparked all kinds of rotations, sending Small Caps (and value) soaring as Mega-tech (and growth) tumbled...Another late-day buying-panic today... So, it's 2009 redux, not 1987? So vaccines are here, Biden will save the world, and stimulus has to come at some point, right? This week saw Small Caps surge to their second-best week vs Nasdaq since Trump was elected in 2016... Source: Bloomberg Momentum suffered its second worst week in history, crashing over 13% Source: Bloomberg Energy stocks soared over 16% higher this week (but notably all on Monday around the vaccine)... Source: Bloomberg This was the Energy Sector's best week ever... Source: Bloomberg Airlines had their best week since June... Source: Bloomberg And banks had their best week since June... Source: Bloomberg FANG Stocks worst week since July... Source: Bloomberg The 'Virus Fear Trade' plunged to its best level since March... Source: Bloomberg VIX crashed this week, back below 24 (from over 40 just 2 weeks ago)... Source: Bloomberg Value surged relative to momentum this week, but bonds decoupled from the regime that has been in place for the last six weeks... Source: Bloomberg Treasuries were dumped en masse on the vaccine news and then investors spent the rest of the week buying them back... Source: Bloomberg 10Y Yields ended back below 90bps and 30Y Yields reversed again at election night spike highs... Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg The Dollar ended the week higher but traded in a very narrow range after Monday's kneejerk... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos were higher this week... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin traded up to $16,500 this week... Source: Bloomberg As one would expect with energy stocks soaring, Oil prices jumped this week (on the Vaccine news) and PMs dipped... Source: Bloomberg WTI was weaker today, unable to hold above $41 for the week... Gold was puked on Monday and spent the rest of the week scrambling back up towards $1900... Silver jumped today, pushing back up towards $25 after a bloodbath earlier in the week... Finally, as stocks soared, US macro data dumped to its weakest since June (having fallen for 11 of the last 12 weeks)... Source: Bloomberg And The Baltic Dry is not exactly encouraging... Source: Bloomberg Is that why the "smart" money is leaving? Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
A Very Good Ten Fri, Nov 13, 2020 With nearly ten trading days under its belt for November, the S&P 500 is putting together quite a month. Through early morning Friday, the S&P 500 was up just over 9% which ranks as the best first ten trading days for a month since January 1987. In the entire history of the S&P, there have only been 17 other months where the S&P 500 was up over 9% in the first ten trading days of the month, and in the post-WWII period, there have only been five. So, when a month starts off strong, does it usually finish that way? Or is there some sort of reversion to the mean? Unfortunately, prior experience isn't particularly consistent in one direction of the other. The table below shows each month since 1928 where the S&P 500 was up at least 7.5% in the first ten trading days of a month. Overall, the S&P 500's average rest of month performance has been a gain of 0.96%. That sounds good, but on a median basis, the rest of the month typically sees a decline of 0.2% with positive returns less than half of the time. In looking at the chart above and the table below, you'll notice that most of the strong starts for the S&P came during the Depression in the pre-WWII period. In 1932 and 1933, for example, there were five occurrences each year! Looking at the post-WWII period where the frequency of occurrences wasn't nearly as common, strong starts to a month typically saw a more positive but still not a very consistent trend. In the ten prior months since the end of WWII, the S&P 500's average rest of month performance was a gain of 1.27% (median: 1.69%) with gains 60% of the time. November Expiration Week: S&P 500 & DJIA Stronger DJIA has been up 11 of the last 16 years on Monday of expiration week and Friday is up 14 of the last 18 years with an average gain of 0.56%. By the way, it is not a mistake that November Op-Ex day has the same point change and percent change in 2014 and 2015. It was triple checked and its correct. If you go out 2 more decimal places in the percentage calculation, it’s different. S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have not been as bullish as DJIA around or on November option expiration. S&P 500 has advanced only 17 times during options expiration week while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have climbed only 16 and 14 times respectively over the past 26 years. All four indices have posted average losses on Monday and aside from DJIA and S&P 500 have been essentially mixed on options expiration day. Friday’s solid average gains across the board are largely due to a sizable gain in 2008. Any weakness next week could be a good entry point for new longs ahead of the historically bullish Thanksgiving holiday. Week before Thanksgiving DJIA Up 19 of 27, But… DJIA has a solid track record over the last 27 years, rising 19 times the week before Thanksgiving with a median gain of 0.46%. But the other major U.S. stock market benchmarks are not as strong and there has been more weakness across the board recently. Since 2003 DJIA is up only 9 out of the last 17 years with a median gain of 0.10%. S&P is up 16 of the last 27 years with a median gain of 0.35% and down 9 of the last 17, –0.13% median loss. NASDAQ is up 15 of the last 27 years with a median gain of 0.33% and down 9 of the last 17, –0.004% median loss. Russell 200 is up 14 of the last 27 years with a median gain of 0.36% and down 10 of the last 17, –0.27% median loss. This sets up well for the Thanksgiving trade of buying into weakness the week before Thanksgiving and selling into strength around the holiday and typical November end-of-month strength. New High in New 52 Week Highs Mon, Nov 9, 2020 As equities and other risk assets surge, a massive number of S&P 500 stocks are hitting new 52 week highs today. As shown in the chart below, as of midday 27.92% of S&P 500 stocks have reached new 52 week highs today and just one stock, Biogen (BIIB), is reaching a new 52 week low. The net reading of 27.72% is the highest reading for net new highs since January of 2018. Prior to that, you would need to go all the way back to May 22nd of 2013 to find the last time there was such a high reading. Looking at the best-performing stocks in the index today, the list is mostly comprised of the stocks that have been extremely beaten down in the COVID economy like energy, travel, and retail/retail real estate names. Despite this, some still find themselves as some of those furthest below their 52-week highs. Take for example Carnival Cruiselines (CCL). The stock is seeing a phenomenal 35% gain just in today's session, but even at today's highs it was still well over 60% below its high for the year. It is a similar story for CCL's peer, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) which is up 27.78% but was 61.4% from its highs at its best price today. On the other hand, there are 28 stocks that have come within 1% of their 52-week highs at their high prices today. Another 80 stocks have come within 5% of their 52-week highs at their intraday highs today. Big Milestone For Small Stocks Tue, Nov 10, 2020 No US equity index has reacted more strongly since Election Day than the Russell 2000 small-cap index. As shown in the chart below, the index finally broke out above its highs from earlier in the year following Monday's positive vaccine news. After that move on Monday, the Russell 2000 was up over 10% in just the last six trading days. In just about any other year besides 2020, a 10%+ move in the Russell 2000 would be an extraordinary move, but this year the most recent move is actually the sixth one of at least that much. In fact, coming out of the March lows, the Russell saw three six-day moves of 19.1%, 16.3%, and 14.8%, respectively. The frequency with which we've seen these 10%+ moves in the Russell 2000 over a six-day period has been unlike any other year in the Russell's history. Behind 2020, the year with the next highest total of 10%+ moves was 2011 (4) and then 2008 (3), and the most there has been in any twelve-month rolling basis is five spanning late 2008 through the first half of 2009. 3 Election Charts That Caught Our Attention Stocks just had their best week since April, with the S&P 500 Index incredibly a chip shot away from new all-time highs. Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States, but markets are confident Republicans will maintain the Senate, and this means gridlock in Washington. Remember, gridlock is good, as it pulls policy towards compromise and avoids extremes. Also, any legislative changes to taxes, regulation, and capital gains will have meaningful input from both parties. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, a split Congress tends to mean stronger stock returns, almost ignoring whether a Democrat or Republican is in the White House. The most likely outcome from the election at this point is a Democratic president with a divided Congress—a scenario that historically has produced solid S&P 500 returns of 15.9% a year. Assuming President-elect Joe Biden takes over in January 2021, it is important to note that historically stocks haven’t done as well the first and second years of a new president compared with an incumbent winning. This makes sense though, as historically voters may have chosen new leadership in part because of economic weakness, and the uncertainty of a new president’s policies could also hold things back some. If things are good, the president tends to win reelection. Things turn around significantly by the third year in office, though, if there’s new leadership. Of course, it’s worth noting that the first year of a new president has seen the S&P 500 higher recently, with stocks up nearly 20% the first year under President Donald Trump (2017) and 23% under President Barack Obama (2009). Lastly, the strength from stocks around the election has been rather historic. “The S&P 500 added 1% on four consecutive days, which hasn’t happened since late 1982,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Although there are only three other times this rare blast of strength happened since WWII, it is worth noting that strong returns going out a year took place after each instance.” The bottom line: Extreme buying pressure has a funny way of resolving higher, and we don’t anticipate this time being any different. The Biggest Winners Are Still Big Losers Mon, Nov 9, 2020 With household names like Carnival (CCL), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Simon Property (SPG), and Royal Caribbean (RCL) all up over 20% today, more than a few people out there are probably kicking themselves for not owning any of them. But before you start ripping your hair out, keep in mind that just about all of these stocks are down (and in a big way) on the year. Of the 33 stocks in the S&P 500 that are up over 20% following today’s vaccine news, all but one of them are still down year to date. The only exception is Expedia (EXPE), which even after a 20%+ gain is still up just 18% on the year. In terms of sector representation, Energy tops the list with more than a third of the names (12) on the list. Behind Energy, Real Estate (8), Consumer Discretionary (6), and Financials (6) are the only other sectors with multiple stocks listed. Just as the best-performing stocks are all still underperforming the S&P 500 on a year to date basis, the biggest losers today are among the year’s biggest winners. There are 25 stocks in the S&P 500 that were down on the day as of the middle of the afternoon, but the only one that is down on the year is Biogen (BIIB), a stock whose decline has nothing to do with the vaccine news. Including BIIB, the 25 biggest losers are still up an average of 41% YTD (median: 31%). Behind BIIB, the two worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 today are Pool (POOL) and Etsy (ETSY). Both stocks are down over 10% on the day, but for the year are still holding onto gains of 56.4% and 190.5%, respectively. Policy Uncertainty Spiked Into the Election Tue, Nov 10, 2020 For the month of October, the NFIB's reading on small business sentiment was unchanged at the headline levels but many of the sub-indices broadly pointed to further improvements in business conditions. That is not to say small businesses do not have their share of concerns. As shown in the chart below, the NFIB's index on Economic Policy Uncertainty rose another 4 points in October to 98 which is the second-highest reading on record behind November of 2016; around the time of the last presidential election. The election played a role in the uncertainty as 31% of small businesses surveyed reported government-related concerns as their biggest problem in October (lower chart). That was up for the second month in a row and is around the high end of the past couple of year's range. Additionally, as discussed earlier, labor also dominates the minds of small businesses as small businesses report struggles in filling roles. 30% reported cost or quality of labor as the single most important problem (top chart). That is unchanged since August. As for the other problems, poor sales remain elevated but were improved again in October dropping one percentage point to 13%. Big Tech Fades and Small Caps Soar Pfizer’s announcement that its vaccine for covid-19 appears to be 90% effective on Monday morning also gave new life to small-cap stocks, many of which have struggled throughout the pandemic. The announcement has also triggered an exodus from mega-cap tech stocks that had been the “go-to” positions throughout most of the pandemic. The chart above is based upon a similar chart from page 112 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020. It shows the typical one-year seasonal pattern of the ratio of the Russell 2000 to the Russell 1000 from July through June (scale on right). Overlaid on top of this pattern is the performance of this ratio in 2020 so far through today’s close (left scale). When the ratio is declining, large-cap stocks are outperforming small cap stocks. When the ratio is climbing, small caps are outperforming. In a typical year, small-caps will lag until around late-September or early October and then take off right around mid-December. Covid-19 related shutdowns and unemployment had kept small caps essentially sidelined this year. There were bouts of strength in late-July to mid-August and a brief surge in mid-September and again in early October. The recent surge higher could be an early start to the major move higher that typically begins around mid-December.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 11.13.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 11.13.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for November 13th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.15.20 Video from ShadowTrader
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 11.16.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 11.16.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 11.1720 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 11.17.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 11.18.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 11.18.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 11.19.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 11.19.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 11.20.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 11.20.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($NIO $NVDA $JD $WMT $HD $SE $TGT $LOW $TSN $PANW $BIDU $KSS $SDC $CODX $BJ $M $SOHU $VBLT $NEPT $TJX $CSIQ $BILI $FL $MARK $MGIC $WDAY $IQ $CSPR $NTES $SOGO $ACM $CLSN $AVYA $VERO $SR $NTWK $AZUL $INTU $BOXL $ARMK $LODE) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning November 16th, 2020 <-- click there to view!
Entered my full bear position Friday afternoon. Wish me luck! Either going to bank or go down with the ship at dow 30k
SQQQ til January, I'm with you. At some point the poop is going to hit the fan. Once again, bigbear0083 we apricate your effort.
Global stock markets analysis and technical analysis of top stocks After 15 Asia-Pacific countries signed RCEP,Asian stock markets rebounded Nikkei 225, Shenzhen Component Index and Hang Seng Index rose. 75.1% of stocks on the Tokyo stock market rose. 52.9% of stocks on the Hongkong stock market rose 70.5% of stocks on Shanghai-Shenzhen stock market rose The European market rose as the optimism of Moderna vaccine offset the impact of the surge in new COVID-19 cases FTSE 100 rose 1.66% and GDAXI rose 0.47% 61.7% stocks on London market rose 64.2% stocks onf Frankfurt market rose The US and Canadian markets rose much and better than Asian and European markets as investors are more optimism of the vaccines in sight S&P, NASDAQ, DOW, glold and oil rose 82.4% of the stocks on NYSE market rose 72.1% of the stocks on NASDAQ market rose 66.2% of the stocks on TSX market rose NYSE Summary Based on data of 2012 stocks traded on NYSE 82.4% stocks rose,16.0% stocks fell 15.7% stocks jumped more than 5%,0.4% stocks dropped more than 5% 28.8% stocks swang between -1% and 1% NYSE top 10 stocks:Top Moneyflow: NIO BA BABA PFE V JPM DIS CCL TSM WMT Most active: NIO GE CCL VALE T ITUB AMC BBD NCLH BA Top gainers: FBM 27% BBVA 13% SLB 11% COTY 11% CCL 10% GPS 9% VLO 9% LMND 9% MPC 8% TCO 8% Golden Crosses: STT 2% ETR 3% BX 2% ED 1% SO 0% USB 2% DAL 4% JPM 3% NASDAQ Summary Based on data of 2153 stocks traded on NASDAQ 72.1% stocks rose,25.5% stocks fell 13.7% stocks jumped more than 5%,3.3% stocks dropped more than 5% 27.5% stocks swang between -1% and 1% NASDAQ top 10 stocks: Top Moneyflow: AMZN AAPL TSLA MRNA NVDA MSFT ZM FB AMD LI Most active: AAL AAPL LI AMD HDS INTC CSCO HOFV MU UAL Top gainers: BLNK 26% HDS 24% CAN 24% KROS 15% INO 15% VVPR 14% LI 14% KNDI 11% VXRT 10% PLAY 9% Golden Crosses : BRKR 2% CRUS 0% SBGI 6% SBRA 3% ONEM -6% CINF 1% ADP 3% TSX Summary Based on data of 1187 stocks traded on TSX 66.2% stocks rose,25.5% stocks fell 8.8% stocks jumped more than 5%,2.4% stocks dropped more than 5% 45.7% stocks swang between -1% and 1% TSX top 10 stocks: Top Moneyflow: ENB RY TD BMO MFC SU BCE CNQ CNR NA Most active: ENB MFC SU CNQ CVE K AC ACB TD RY Top gainers: HND 17% HRX 15% PD 13% WPRT 12% ACQ 11% HEU 10% TRQ 10% ERF 9% CHR 9% PXT 9% Golden Crosses: CJR-B 5% MIC 0% EMA 0% GIB-A 3% WEED 1% MFC 5% Technical analysis charts 0f 20,000 stocks (5 trading strategies) worldwide updated.
BNTX selling off on the MRNA vaccine data, might be a buying opportunity, we will need more than 1 Covid vaccine in the market for sure
Got in MRNA at $29.66, not a big position and I sold almost 50% of my initial investment after it was more than doubled several months ago, wish I had a bigger position and I didn’t sell half
Exact same here lol. Was wondering what was happening to JD last week before the ER, I think it was you that posted the news link. Anyway sold JD when it got back to month's high on Friday. At least I wasn't in BABA. I wouldn't say I need a vaccine Just keep using a mask/face covering. I believe these vaccines will need to be taken 4 times a year. Well 90% effectiveness for a one-time deal, if you do have to take it 4 times a year then the effectiveness goes down to 65%. And even if you do get the vaccine, will you stop using a mask? I'm more interested in a treatment. If you get rona then you're supposed to quarantine for 2 weeks, to say nothing about if you encounter health problems. If I do get rona, then I want a treatment I can take so I can be back to new-normal the next day like Donald Trump did. But like I said, companies are more interested in developing vaccines because everyone is potentially in the market for a vaccine. Only the people who get sick will potentially be taking a treatment medicine; currently less than 5% of the US has gotten rona.
