The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    This information is not quite accurate. I will leave most of it alone but this one item is not fair to Tesla ..

    Tesla owns a manufacturing line that produces ventilator components for medtronic. They helped medtronic scale by a factor of 10, early in the pandemic.

    The medtronic ceo said Tesla stood up a manufacturing line in 10 days, like it was magic. In a recent interview, he was in disbelief of what they made happen.

    The Tesla owned, medtronic, line is in Germany. Musk visited it on his recent trip to Giga Berlin.


    On another topic, I calculated Tesla at a value of roughly 90B in the spring of 2019. The market valued Tesla at $18b so I bought the hell out of the stock.

    The market was wrong. I knew the stream of lies would run out of gas, sooner or later, and the stock would bounce back to about $350. All I had to do was wait. Of course, I had no idea it would go as high as it has in this short time. That was mostly luck.

    People who believe the market is always right can not be value investors, by definition. The value investor's job is to find situations where the market is wrong and exploit those anomalies.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like pretty good criteria...roadtonowhere08. I think WE ALL will do very well over time going forward

    I was talking to a friend recently about my accounts......all taxable brokerage accounts..... and the fact that we did not need to use any of that money for living expenses for the rest of our lives. He asked.....well what is the plan for those accounts....just inheritance to your kids?

    WELL....yes....much of it will end up as inheritance. BUT the real purpose of those funds and those accounts......while we are alive...... is:

    1. Emergency back up.
    2. Security for ourselves and immediate family.
    3. To be able to live a life free from debt.
    4. To provide a way to fund various family situations.
    5. To be able to enjoy life and hobbies and interests to the fullest.

    My focus as an investor is to make money as A MEANS TO AN END.......NOT as the end itself. Those account funds provide the ability for us to do what we wish......not just pile up money. We collect impressionistic art, my wife is involved with horses and animals. We have a HUGE fund available in an emergency medical or other situation. We are able to help with and fund family education.....college for the new generations. We are able to buy a car when we need to without financing. The funds provide the ability to NOT have a house payment. My sister has used some of her stock earnings to be the mortgage holder of the home loans of two family members. She gets a nice monthly income from those two loans and they get a flexible lender that gave them flexibility on down payments and loan terms and the interest earned is staying in the family NOT going to a bank.

    The simple and BIG answer is.........those investment accounts provide us with FLEXIBILITY and FREEDOM to do anything...... within reason. For example if we wanted to buy a new home.....we could buy the house outright BEFORE our old home is sold......and pay ourselves back when the old house sells. It gives us the freedom to NOT have to deal with financing or be limited by the usual practice of needing the funds from the old house in order to buy the new house.

    This is why I invest and I ASSUME everyone invests.......to provide for your family and future and as you get older......and your funds increase......to have FREEDOM and ADVANTAGES in your life. AND.....in the end......if things work out well.......to leave a nice inheritance for your kids and grand-kids with the hope that they continue to grow at least some of the money and are able to provide for the generations that are their children and future grandchildren.
     
    #2542 WXYZ, Nov 18, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2020
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ANOTHER......good down day in the markets.....at least for my account. SNOW and TSLA were the big gainers today. A very PIDDLING loss today in the primary account........$319. As happened the other day......virtually ZERO. BUT......a KILLER BEAT of the SP500 today by 1.12%. I will gladly take that dead even.....ZERO....result today to rack up a GREAT gain on the SP500. Money in the bank for the future.

    Oh yes......do I use this daily info like the above for anything? NO....not a thing. I post it here in case I ever wanted to look back and see what was going on at some particular time. Otherwise.....I don't keep track of any of this sort of data. I guess it helps me to kind of keep my head in the investing game.....versus.......never checking my account, not doing any reading or research, and just ignoring it for the long term.
     
    #2543 WXYZ, Nov 18, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2020
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  4. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking of buying a property cash but recently I’m not so sure I’d like to do that. See if I put 400k on a house cash and let it gain an average of 5-10% value per year that’s great. If I rent it out I may even get double that yearly. Great again.
    But the whole time I could do that with a mortgage plan which will cost 3% annually in interest, but I could gain more value from the remainder of the cash sitting in the stock market + gain annual value + rent cash flow.
    So now, I’m not such a fan of buying real estate in cash after all
     
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  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Imo, unleveraged r-e doesn't make a lot of sense.
     
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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Agree. Especially any sort of commercial property or rental. With the historic low interest rates taking a mortgage on a house or investment property allows that money to be invested for the long term. With a 3% mortgage and an anticipated long term return on invested funds at 10% per year, or more, plus rental income and depreciation, produces a NICE positive return on the money. AND....of course you are STILL getting the appreciation on the property.

    I prefer to have a free and clear home. It was important to me when I was a business owner to NOT have that monthly payment.........and.....we had the discipline to invest that money.......plus more.......each year in the brokerage account for the long term. I think the last time we had a house payment was about age 36. Of course.....over most of my homeowner life.......rates were WAY HIGHER than 3%.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Have you moved yet Zukodany? Would the new rental be in your new area? Commercial or residential?
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ANOTHER stock position in my portfolio model that just CRUSHED EARNINGS. No doubt the stock WILL be down tomorrow. I cant wait to see what obscure, nit-picking, reason is given:

    Nvidia beats on both earnings and revenue, sales up 57%

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/nvidia-nvda-earnings-q3-2021.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Nvidia reported earnings for its third fiscal quarter of 2021 on Wednesday.
    • Nvidia beat analyst expectations on both earnings and revenue in its fiscal fourth quarter but shares barely moved in extended trading.
    • Nvidia said it set company records for revenue and quarterly profit and that revenue was up 57% from the same period last year,

    Nvidia beat analyst expectations on both earnings and revenue in its fiscal fourth quarter, but the stock dropped more than 3% in extended trading after the company said that revenue from its data center segment would decline sequentially in the current quarter.

    Here’s how Nvidia did in the quarter ending in October:

    • Earnings: $2.91 per share, adjusted, vs. $2.57 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
    • Revenue: $4.73 billion, vs. $4.41 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
    Analysts had been expecting a big quarter from the Santa Clara chipmaker driven by sales of its graphics processing unit chips, which are increasingly important for both games and artificial intelligence developers who need processing power.

    Nvidia said it set company records for revenue, up 57% from the same period last year, and quarterly profit.

    Nvidia’s big quarter was driven by its compute and networking segment, which was up 146% from a year ago to $1.94 billion. It was also boosted by the company’s graphics segment, which was up 25% from last year to $2.79 billion. In addition to reporting revenue in terms of those two segments, Nvidia also discloses revenue by which market the products are intended for.

    Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in August that the company is expecting a strong half of the year in its gaming division. During the quarter, Nvidia revealed its new line of graphics cards based on a new technology it calls Ampere, and interest was strong. One of the new models, the GeForce RTX 3080, went on sale in September and immediately sold out.

    Revenue in the gaming market was up 37% from last year to $2.27 billion, which the company called a record and attributed to sales of graphics cards to computer and console makers, and said that desktop sales benefitted from the launch of its new RTX graphics cards.

    On Wednesday, the company said that both its gaming and data center divisions have also been boosted during the Covid-19 pandemic as customers need computers to work and play from home.

    Last quarter, Nvidia’s data center line item surpassed gaming revenue for the first time. This quarter, Nvidia reported $1.9 billion in sales in the data center market, behind the gaming division, although it increased by 162% from the same period last year, driven by sales of Ampere graphics chips. Nvidia also said on Wednesday that its purchase of Mellanox, which closed earlier this year, contributed 13% to total company revenue and about a third of data center revenue.

    Nvidia said in a call with analysts that it expected its data center revenue to decline in the current quarter, partially driven by a Chinese customer not purchasing Mellanox networking products.

    In September, Nvidia said it planned to buy ARM from SoftBank for $40 billion, in a move seen as having significant implications for the semiconductor industry. ARM develops technology widely used across the industry to develop low-power chips for mobile devices and supplies technology to most of Nvidia’s competitors. Nvidia said on Wednesday that it expected to close the ARM acquisition in the first quarter of 2022.

    Nvidia said that it expected $4.8 billion in revenue in its fiscal fourth quarter, in line with analyst expectations per Refinitiv of $4.42 billion."

    MY COMMENT

    Of course the stock is down after hours. The TYPICAL post-earnings drop for a day or two before RATIONALITY happens.
     
  9. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    "Buy the rumor, sell the news."
    "Pump and dump."
    "Not good enough beat."

    Down after great earnings? It's all crap.

    Nvidia is money in the bank. Need parallel threaded horsepower for whatever reason? NVIDIA is your solution. Their datacenter/AI division is just getting started.
     
  10. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    We’ve been here in Westerville for 2 months now it’s amazing! Everything we expected it to be and more. We are searching for a sized commercially zoned lot. The idea is to have 2 properties in one; commercial & residential, and rent the commercial building just like we do in NYC. I know the areas quite well by now and constantly working with agents on finding something. There’s plenty of opportunities here and so we are patiently waiting for the right one for us. Will keep you updated
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    MARKETS dont care about anything. They are just going to throw a big HISSY-FIT. EARNINGS....yes blockbuster earnings.....not good enough and who cares. Vaccine news and OBVIOUS near term end to the virus....who cares. Good or bad economic data.....who cares. Here is a little short term economic news.....

    Another 742,000 Americans filed for unemployment claims last week, the first increase in a month

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/19/economy/unemployment-benefits-coronavirus/index.html

    Slightly up for the week.....but is anyone surprised when we have the public health morons closing down the small business economy? INTERESTINGLY......can you name ONE BIG BUSINESS that is being required to shut down? NO.....NOT ONE. They are still ALL open and doing business as usual and THRIVING. I know some people that work at SAMSUNG and guess what......they have been open 24/7 through this whole mess as have most of the tech companies. AND....that does not mean working from home....all their contract manufacturing workers are working on site as usual. Meanwhile our political heroes and the ELITES flounce around flaunting the rules at will.....because they are SPECIAL. JUST DISGUSTING.

    SHOCKINGLY......I STILL see the general market direction as UP over the short to medium term. On an anecdotal level....in my area......a booming city....traffic is way down on the roads. We eat out every day and the past week the number of people in the restaurants is way way down from the "new normal" levels. Interestingly if you get out of the city to the surrounding suburbs and outlying towns......life and activity is much more "normal". We were out in a tourist town about 70 miles outside the city three days ago and it was BOOMING. NO lock-downs, large numbers of tourists out and about, bars and restaurants open etc, etc.

    SO.....short term....there is NO RATIONALITY to the markets or society. The markets and people are being jerked around day to day. One last BIG GASP by those in control.......of some areas......and fear mongering the virus. There is NOTHING an investor can or should do. Just sit and watch the insanity. Wait it out.....do nothing. Making short term moves in response will just get you SEVERELY WHIPSAWED.

    Reading the above sounds sort of PISSY.....but my state of mind is actually "bemused interest". Watching the behavior of various politicians, people in power, everyday people, business owners, etc, etc, is very interesting at the moment. Human behavior NEVER changes.

    SO.....taking my own advice.......since I dont give investing advice to others.......and what I post is simply my own investing STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS.....I will continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Sounds great Zukodany. I am sure you are seeing and enjoying the BIG DIFFERENCE between what you are seeing in your new location compared to your old location in Queens.
     
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looks like we have now flipped around from the open.......somewhat. WHERE are those Robinhood guys when we need them? I guess when sports started back up they all went back to the gambling sites. SO.......the day trading FRENZY and resulting market momentum is over.

    It will be interesting to see where we end the day.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    "WE".......will be playing a show this weekend and a show next weekend. One is about 75 miles away and the other about 100 miles away. BOTH are outside and places that we know well. They do a good job of creating a safe environment. In fact ALL of the shows we have done lately have seemed very safe and we have had ZERO concerns.

    I was having some discussions with friends lately about the fact that NONE of us have even had the slightest cold during the past 8 months. I attribute that to distancing, mask wearing, and ESPECIALLY hand sanitizing. ANYWHERE I go I sanitize on the way in and again on the way out. Anywhere in public that I touch anything...the gas station, post office, etc, etc, I sanitize my hands. SO FAR.....SO GOOD.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    EPIC BATTLE for market direction today. Hand to hand fighting with knives. Back and forth up and down. At the moment we have seen the Nasdaq and the SP500 positive.
     
  16. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    nice story line for a short film in there somewhere. let's do lunch.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I might do lunch......but no hotel rooms. Yes......the REAL, hidden stock markets, are actually a fight club that where the REAL traders battle each other with knives and swords. The guys you see siting at the computer terminals trading are just a dummy front for the REAL action. The market direction is determined by the bets being placed on the fighters that represent the averages. Of course, it is ALL controlled by a massive world wide AI empire of machines that take perverse machine pleasure in seeing the "little humans" fight like animals.

    I was wondering what you were doing lately Emmett. AND.......yes.....I had to look. ALL accounts are actually UP today by .25% to .30%. I expected they would be with the Nasdaq being positive.....for the moment. I have probably DOOMED it for mentioning this in public
     
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  18. B Russ

    B Russ Well-Known Member

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    I think the anchorman already did it. Hell, one dude even had a trident! U are gonna have to bring your A game. ;). Jk. I love those short films of yours
     
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  19. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Oh yesss. We can even fit an 8’ tree in our house for the first time
    Going all out on Christmas decorations this year!!
    Amazing week for me, mostly because of Tesla but also all my tech positions are up significantly. I love having a nice diverse portfolio, even though I do have a lot of tech positions my other positions have rallied bigly last week so it’s a win win for me. Like I never thought I’d see my Macy’s take a strong lead but it did. I only bought 200 shares so nothing to brag about, but still
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.....I am sure it will be really nice for Christmas in a smaller city. Like something out of a Hallmark movie. I assume you found a house to buy?

    I have been out and about since my last post. NICE to come back to ALL the averages being in the GREEN.....even if the DOW gain is very small and could still flip on us before the close.
     

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