Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 23rd! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 1:00 p.m. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Tuesday 9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices 9:00 a.m. FHFA/home prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence 11:00 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 12:00 p.m. New York Fed President John William Wednesday 8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Durable goods 8:30 a.m. Q3 GDP second reading 8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators 10:00 a.m. Personal income/spending 10:00 a.m. New home sales 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 2:00 p.m. Fed meeting minutes Thursday Thanksgiving Day holiday Markets closed Friday Stock market closes at 1 p.m.
Stocks Dip, Crypto Rips As 'Dark Winter' Trumps 'Spring Reopening' For all the hype about vaccines returning us to normal, it appears to be more a "sell the news" event as vaccine good news is stimulus bad news (and Mnuchin's move didn't help the latter's hype). So, in spite of all the good news on vaccines and treatments, stocks were mixed with S&P and Dow red on the week (Dark Winter?), Small Caps best (value rotation), Nasdaq tumbled into the red in the last few minutes (mixed picture)... It appears winter is coming before spring can sprung... Airlines rallied this week (but faded the last couple of days)... Source: Bloomberg Similar picture for banks as they eked out gains after a strong start... Source: Bloomberg Momentum fell relative to value for the second week in a row... Source: Bloomberg Notably, however, the momo/value rotation drastically decoupled from bond yields this week... Source: Bloomberg HY bond prices dropped today, but modestly, not reacting very violently to Mnuchin's Fed punchbowl pull... But spreads did decouple today from equity risk... Source: Bloomberg Despite the mixed bag in stocks, bonds were bid aggressively with the long-end yield dropping over 11bps... Source: Bloomberg 30Y Yields tumbled, erasing all of the Pfizer vaccine spike... Source: Bloomberg The Dollar drifted lower all week, back at the post-election, pre-Pfizer-vaccine lows... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos had a big week with Litecoin and Ripple outperforming... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin neared its record high... Source: Bloomberg And Ethereum surged back above $500... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin has erased most of the DeFi boom outperformance of Ethereum... Source: Bloomberg Copper and Crude rallied on the week as PMs limped lower... Source: Bloomberg Gold bounced off the Pfizer vaccine plunge lows... Oil (WTI) ended the week above $42... Copper has soared to a two year high on vaccine 'return to normal' hopes, but the copper/gold ratio remains entirely decoupled from bonds... Source: Bloomberg Finally, as Bloomberg reports, the world's stock of negative-yielding debt climbed to a record $17.1 trillion as pandemic-spurred economic damage and monetary stimulus continued to grip bond investors even as news of progress on a vaccine lifted equity markets. The frenzy for China's first sovereign-bond sale with a sub-zero yield only underscored the unwavering demand for the asset class. And that is supportive for gold (and maybe one reason for Bitcoin's surge)... Source: Bloomberg And in stock-land, Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns that the data suggests a significant amount of the aggregate options position $Gamma to run-off across SPX / SPY, QQQ, IWM and EEM as per standard options expiration cycle - and in-light of such extreme “long $Delta,” the end of day today into early next week is the window for the market to “un-pin,” especially as recent and incredibly supportive Dealer Vanna- and Charm- flow is gone. Trade accordingly.
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
The Thanksgiving Trade Trading around Thanksgiving has a bullish tendency perhaps buoyed by the “holiday spirit.” First published in the 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving combined were up 34 times in 35 years. The only S&P 500 decline was in 1964. Subsequently, this trend changed. In the 33 years since 1987, there have been 9 declines and 24 advances. The best short-term trade appears to be getting long into any weakness on Monday or Tuesday of Thanksgiving week and selling into any subsequent rally by the end of Thanksgiving week. But as COVID-19 cases are on the rise again remain nimble as exogenous events like Greece’s debt crisis in 2011 or 2018’s fourth quarter rout can cancel Thanksgiving on Wall Street. Also of note is the change in the yearend rally. Prior to 1987, from the close of trading on the Friday after Thanksgiving to yearend, the S&P 500 rallied only 20 times in 35 years. As Thanksgiving bullishness lost steam in 1987, the rally afterwards occurred more frequently. Since 1987, S&P 500 has logged gains in 25 of 33 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to yearend. 5 Noteworthy Charts To Watch As Stocks Soar First, the big economic data point this week was retail sales. Although the headline number was a little light at 0.3% versus an expected 0.5% gain month-over-month, it still hit another new all-time high along the way (source: US Census Bureau). “The miss could be a sign the consumer is finally starting to slow amid record COVID-19 cases and more restrictions, with restaurant sales dipping for the first time since April,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. The good news is retail sales has hit a new high for five consecutive months, and the economy has never been in a recession after three consecutive new highs—yet another sign the recession may be over, even if it hasn’t been called officially. How strong has the recent rally been? Well, as of Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 Index was on pace to have its second-best month of November ever. November isn’t over yet of course, but this could open the door to a potential late-month snap back lower after a huge move, which would be perfectly normal and healthy. After Monday’s record close, the S&P 500 now has 24 new all-time high closes in 2020. The surge after the election was historic in many ways. The number of stocks in the S&P 500 recently making new monthly highs caught our attention. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, previous surges in new monthly highs opened the door for near-term weakness, but the weakness was a nice buying opportunity. In fact, a year after previous major breadth thrusts saw stocks higher every single time, not something we want to ignore. Last, more than 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 recently were above their 200-day moving average—another sign of impressive participation in this recent market strength. Once again, future results would suggest this extreme strength is a sign of potential future strong performance and weakness could be used as a buying opportunity. B.I.G. Tips - Retail Sales Slow Tue, Nov 17, 2020 The October Retail Sales report missed expectations this morning on both a headline and core basis. In addition to the weaker than expected reading for October, September's report was also revised lower. Breadth in this month’s report was also negative for the first time since April. Of the thirteen sectors tracked in the report, just five showed growth while eight declined. On the positive side, Non-Store retail was the main bright spot with m/m growth of 3.11%. That’s the last thing every traditional retailer wants to hear and could be indicative of another wave of retrenchment on the part of consumers as the weather gets colder and case counts rise. Electronics and Appliances also reported strong sales growth likely aided by the launch of the iPhone 12. On the downside, Clothing and Sporting Goods both saw m/m declines of over 4%, while sales at General Merchandise retailers dropped 1.1%. While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just-released B.I.G. Tips report, we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts. Finally A New High for Small Caps Mon, Nov 16, 2020 It only took over two years, but the Russell 2000 finally put in a new all-time high on Friday. As shown in the charts below, Friday marked the first all-time high on a closing basis since August 31st, 2018; a total of 553 trading days between highs. As shown in the second chart below, since the index began trading in the late 80's, that makes for the third-longest stretch without a new high. The only two longer periods were from March 10th, 2000 through April 2nd, 2004 and from July 16, 2007 through April 26th, 2011. Both of those streaks were nearly twice as long as the past two years' streak. The Russell 2000 is up another 2% to more fresh highs this morning, but the recent move to new highs has left the index very overbought. As shown in the snapshot of our Trend Analyzer below, at Friday's close small caps like the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) are two of the most overbought major index ETFs after having seen some of the strongest performance over the past five days. Granted, as other large-cap indices like the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) were quicker to return to all-time highs earlier this year making them some of the stronger performers on the year, small caps have been laggards on a year to date basis. In other words, this year's weakest performers have been a factor in recent strength. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for our best research available. A Month for the Ages Mon, Nov 16, 2020 Just when you think you've seen it all from this market, a month like November comes around. Stock returns so far this month have been extraordinary, and what makes the gains even more impressive is the fact that they came not from a starting point of a depressed bear-market environment but instead from a level that was already pretty close to record highs. Within the Russell 3000, which encompasses stocks with market caps of all sizes, the average MTD performance of stocks in the index is a gain of over 15%. Even in the large-cap S&P 500, the average stock in the index has rallied more than 13.5% so far this month! Keep in mind too that these are just averages, and plenty of individual stocks are up multiples of that. In the Russell 3000, there are 51 stocks that are up over 50% so far in November. We don't have enough room to list them all, but the first table below shows the twenty top performers. Topping the list is Five Prime Therapeutics (FPRX), which has rallied more than 349% this month! That's years worth of returns in sixteen days. Behind FPRX, there are two other stocks - Cooper Standard (CPS) and Revlon (REV) - which have both more than doubled. Many of the names listed below are unknown small caps, but a handful of names like Transocean (RIG), Coty (COTY), and Lyft (LYFT) are very well known. In the large-cap S&P 500, the gains haven't been as gaudy but are still impressive. As shown in the table below, the twenty top-performing stocks in the index are all up over 30% MTD. One sector well represented on this list is Energy with eight of the twenty names listed coming from that sector. While just about every stock in the S&P 500 is up this month, 18 stocks have managed to trade lower. Of these 18 stocks, only two - Hanesbrands (HBI) and NortonLifeLock (NLOK) - are down more than 5%. What's really interesting about this list, however, is that while Energy dominates the list of S&P 500 winners, no sector dominates the list of losers as it's a diverse set of stocks spanning ten of the eleven GICS sectors. The only sector not represented is Industrials. Long Term Averages Taken Out Tue, Nov 17, 2020 With equities having another strong day yesterday, a large number of stocks closed above their 200-DMAs. For the S&P 500 as a whole, nearly 90% of the index closed above their long term moving averages. That was the highest percentage for the broad index since July 3rd, 2014. As equities pullback today, that reading is lower at 86.56% as of this writing which is still in the 90th percentile of readings since 1990. As shown in the charts below, the same applies on a sector by sector basis as well. Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Financials, Industrials, and Materials all currently boast readings above 90%. For Consumer Discretionary, there have been a few similarly high readings since the start of the month, and these have all been the highest on record since at least 1990. For other sectors, recent readings have similarly been at multi-year highs. Levels for Communication Services, Health Care, and Materials, are all their highest since September or late August, but for others, it has been much longer since we saw similar readings. For example, the last time Industrials saw as high of a percentage of stocks above their 200-DMA was way back in May of 2013, and for Consumer Staples, the last higher reading was in October of 2013. The sector that has the weakest number of stocks above their 200-DMAs is unsurprisingly Energy. Whereas yesterday exactly half of the stocks in the Energy sector finished above their 200-DMA, today less than a third remain above that level. Granted, that is far better than the end of October when not even 5% were above. In the table below, we show a list of the S&P 500 Energy sector's components showing how far each is above/below their 200-day moving average as well as the MTD and YTD performance. Baker Hughes (BKR), Halliburton (HAL), and Marathon (MPC) are all the most elevated, currently above their 200-DMAs by double-digit percentages. TechnipFMC (FTI) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV) have been the top performers in the sector, but they both still sit a few percentage points below their 50-DMAs even after rallies of more than 40% this month. The only Energy sector stock to have fallen in what has been a remarkably strong month is Cabot Oil and Gas (COG), though it is one of the best performers YTD with a decline of just 2.4%. Still, its recent decline leaves it as one of the furthest below its 200-DMA. Stocks Flying Around the Globe Wed, Nov 18, 2020 Since bottoming on the last trading day of November, the S&P 500 (SPY) has had a banner month so far this November rising 10.61% month to date. While there is still nearly two weeks left in the month, SPY is on pace for its best month since April. That is also in the top 1% of monthly moves of the past two decades. Other than April, the only month of the past 20 years that has seen a larger gain was October of 2011. Looking across the various country ETFs in our Global Macro Dashboard, there similarly have been some massive moves so far this month. Several of these have risen over 20% and only two, India (INDA) and China (MSHI), have risen by single-digit percentages. Spain (EWP), Italy (EWI), France (EWQ), Mexico (EWW), Norway (ENOR), and the UK (EWU) are all on pace for their best month of the past twenty years. Every other country ETF is also seeing monthly moves in the top decile of their respective 20-year ranges. For some of these, like Singapore (EWS) or Switzerland (EWL), this month has been the best month in over a decade.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 11.20.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 11.20.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for November 20th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.22.20 Video from ShadowTrader
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 11.23.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 11.23.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 11.24.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 11.24.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 11.25.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 11.25.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Thursday 11.26.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THANKSGIVING DAY.) Thursday 11.26.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THANKSGIVING DAY.) Friday 11.27.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 11.27.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($BBY $NIU $DKS $DLTR $DQ $MDT $TWST $ADSK $BZUN $DE $SJM $ANF $HRL $PLAN $BURL $ADI $A $ICLK $TNP $JWN $URBN $NTNX $DELL $DSX $WMG $GPS $AMWD $FRO $BLRX $AMBA $HPQ $AEO $ONE $KFY $ARWR $PSTG $CBT $J $TITN $EV $CHS $DY $CMCM) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning November 23rd, 2020 <-- click there to view!
Here is the Globex futures holiday schedule for this upcoming Thanksgiving Day holiday: Here's to a VERY HAPPY Thanksgiving to all of our members here at Stockaholics! Have a great holiday with your families and friends and stay healthy and safe everyone!
Big Bear will we ever see you back to posting regularly on the threads again anytime soon? This board hasn’t really been the same w/o you man. I for one have greatly missed your daily market commentary and statistics. I hope you have been well. Thank you again for taking the time and effort out of your day to put out these threads. They are by far my most favorite threads on the whole forum, and IMO they are greatest weekly market kick off I’ve seen anywhere on the internet. I always look forward to them every week! I’m sure I speak for the other regulars when I say that as well. I am admittedly sometimes surprised these threads don’t get more likes from the community honestly. Thank you! Oh and just a quick edit here to wish you and your fam a Happy Thanksgiving as well.
Happy Thanksgiving trading week to you all, and hope you all have a safe and happy Thanksgiving weekend
Would like to thank @anotherdevilsadvocate for mentioning SI as a potential bitcoin play awhile ago, I am up almost 12% now after getting in
Yeah a bank that does Bitcoin! Recently read that it is in one of the ARK funds too. Nice breakout by TSLA above 500.
Happy Thanksgiving to all Stockaholics Hope you stay safe, but don't forget to enjoy life safely. Thank you for keeping this board clean and full of information and ideas.
The vaccine hope continues for the market I guess, industrials, financials, materials, energy and travel stocks, etc. are doing very well
