Hi there WXYZ, first I'm hoping all is ok w/ you. Here is a short resume I wrote for you, in order you can have a global frame of what is Europe today. Europe, as in a certain way happens with the USA, is a mosaic of cultures, people, habits and distinct history. In this way "there is not a Europe" but a group of entities, in which some of them fit into subgroups, with some homogeneity or more things in common. Northern Europe also known as the rich Europe (includes the Scandinavian countries, Germany, Austria, Holland etc) are the countries that will most easily resist the crisis derived from the pandemic, for obvious reasons: strong human resources qualification, liberal markets with little state protection, Lutheran/calvinist tradition that "profit is good, it is not a sin", economies strongly focused on value creation. They also have reduced national debts (less than 100% of their GDP). The second group includes the states from the former Eastern bloc: Poland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Hungary, Baltic countries, etc. The "Russian bear" fear is still so strong that many have been exemplary students of the more liberal economic doctrines, so the growth rates have been interesting. In addition, they have a good level of manpower, good levels of education (tradition of the socialist economies of the East), and a labor cost - still - reduced to the average European standard. Portugal belongs to the last group, the southern economies (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece etc). The south, traditionally poorer, with later literacy, late and slow industrialization, economies overly regulated by the state, very averse to the culture of merit and in opposition more susceptible to the culture of personal lobby. The fact that any of the former countries went through long periods of dictatorship (again characterized by strong state control and little financial and economic freedom) did not help their development either. All these countries managed to narrow the gap for those in the front (first group) since the 1960s; however, much of this development (health, education, public works, etc.) was secured by public indebtedness, resulting in an extremely high average level of debt in most cases. Portugal in particular, although included in the previous group, is still penalized for having an economy heavily dependent on tourism and real estate, activities that are naturally impacted by the pandemic. I dont think future here will be much different from elsewhere (considering just ocidental world) because I see same patterns everywhere: migrations, nationalisms rising, gap beetween poor/wealth increasing etc. Just a thought.
Thanks RG....interesting and welcome. HERE is......another......little item that provides a HINT as to the future for stock and fund investors: Coronavirus spurred companies to hoard cash. Now they are starting to dole it out. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...ard-cash-now-they-are-starting-to-dole-it-out (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "After scrambling to hoard cash in the spring, some large U.S. companies that halted their dividend payments are reversing their decision, a sign that their leaders believe the worst of the crisis is behind them. Earlier this year, when much of the country's economy shut down in the first waves of the coronavirus pandemic, companies withdrew cash from credit lines, stopped repurchasing stock and halted dividend payments amid the uncertainty. The public health plight continues, but many businesses -- from factories to law firms -- have learned how to operate during the pandemic. Retailers, fast-food restaurants and car makers are doing better, and there is hope among executives that any new restrictions to battle the latest U.S. surge in cases won't be as severe. "Multinationals are beginning to exhale," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "The resumption of corporate dividend payments is an encouraging sign that executives believe that the pandemic will soon be behind us." RETAILERS BRACE AS COVID-19 BEARS DOWN ON CONSUMERS AND ECONOMY Kohl's Corp. was one of the 42 companies in the S&P 500 index that suspended its dividend to preserve cash after the Covid-19 virus arrived. In September, finance chief Jill Timm said the retailer would protect its cash reserves because of continued uncertainty. "As we see stabilization, we'll move back into paying a dividend," she said at an investor conference. Her tone changed last week when the department store chain reported third-quarter results that showed its business recovering after reopening locations. Revenue fell 14%, compared with a 23% drop in the previous quarter. Kohl's said it would resume its dividend in the first half of 2021. "We have shown progressive improvement and stability in the business," Ms. Timm said on a conference call. A company's decision to pay a dividend typically depends on management's comfort with having enough cash flow for other uses -- post-payment -- along with its ability to access other cash. It is a commitment to make regular payouts to shareholders and suspending it is frequently a last resort in a crisis. Of the 42 companies in the S&P 500 index that suspended their dividend earlier this year, six have resumed paying their dividend and several more have given a timeline to do the same, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. US RETAIL SALES MISS EXPECTATIONS IN OCTOBER Despite the economic shocks this year, many large companies have successfully navigated the pandemic, and some are benefiting by taking market share from smaller competition. "It may not be a barometer of the strength of the broader economy," Mr. Zandi said, referring to renewed dividend payments. Oil producer Marathon Oil Corp. halted its dividend payments in May after oil prices dropped because of a decline in consumption of gasoline and jet fuel as millions of people worked from home and avoided driving and flying. Last month, the company declared a dividend for payment in December. "We believe we have successfully repositioned our company for success in a lower, more volatile commodity price environment," Chief Executive Officer Lee Tillman said at the time. Other companies resuming their dividends include Darden Restaurants Inc., operator of Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse and other chains; cosmetics company Estée Lauder Cos.; and timber giant Weyerhaeuser Co. Apparel chain Gap Inc. halted its dividend in March while also skipping rent payments, issuing debt and drawing cash out of its credit line. In late October, finance chief Katrina O'Connell said the company would be "returning to paying a consistent and competitive dividend" in early 2021. General Motors Co. CEO Mary Barra told investors in early November that the company would aim to resume its dividend, suspended in April, around mid-2021 if the current recovery continues for the auto maker. In 2019, GM paid more than $2.3 billion in shareholder dividends. Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of money manager Navellier & Associates Inc., said companies have been working to free up cash flow in the pandemic, and he sees more companies resuming their dividends. He expects investors to focus more on dividend-paying stocks because interest rates will remain low for a prolonged period. "I think dividends will become more important, and more companies will do it," he said. GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE Some companies are doing more than just resuming dividends. Retailer TJX Cos. said last week that it would resume its dividend, but at a 13% higher rate than it last paid in March, citing its cash flow and $10.6 billion in cash on its balance sheet. The company has reopened most of the TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods stores it had closed in the spring. "We are very bullish on the longer-term outlook because that feels significantly better than it did at the beginning of [the third quarter] when we didn't know where all of this was heading," CEO Ernie Herrman said on a conference call. One of the nation's largest hospital chains, Universal Health Systems Inc., said Thursday that it wasn't quite yet ready to resume paying a dividend, largely because of the recent surge in cases across the country. If the company can manage through another difficult Covid-19 period, finance chief Steve Filton said on a conference call, it would feel more comfortable paying out cash to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases. "We'd like to get through the next couple of months," Mr. Filton said, "and then maybe sometime in February, take stock of where we are."" MY COMMENT SOUNDS GOOD The ONLY problem is the fact that the government policies and actions that created the ECONOMIC BOOM are going to be reversed. The question is how much will be reversed. We have the Georgia Senate races ongoing. The best BET for the economy and probably investors going forward is the HOPE that the Congress will remain SPLIT. SO.....I continue with my belief that investors will do well this coming year. As to employees, workers, the general economy........who knows.
The stock market is riddled with uncertainty, but certain tried-and-true principles can help investors boost their chances for long-term success. Some of the more important basic investment advice includes riding winners and selling losers; avoiding the urge to chase "hot tips"; resisting the lure of penny stocks; and picking a strategy then sticking to it. If your time horizon allows it, a focus on the future with an eye toward long-term investment can maximize profits for most any investor.
WELL SAID.....Akwin. BASIC rules that will lead to success for any long term focused investor. Welcome to the thread. Feel free to post any time. If you are inclined tell us about your investing experiences and your portfolio.
$GWSO posted this info yesterday: https://gwsogroup.com/hle-healthy-lighting-energy-ozone-the-killer-combination-against-many-viruses/… I would suspect they will come with news today.
I want to be the FIRST to say.......HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE. LETS ALL have a good week.....family, friends, and life. AND......who knows.....we might even make some money as an added bonus. We will be DOING Thanksgiving on Friday. We have two police officers in my immediate family and they both are working on Thursday. I will be making a traditional Texas pecan pie.......using my mom's old recipe from the 1940's........on Thursday for Friday. Pecan pie is always better after siting in the refrigerator overnight.
Hanry Davies Welcome to the thread. If you wish.....tell us about your investing experiences some time. I just did my morning check on my primary account. I was looking at my NEW holdings and how they have done.....short term. For those that like DRAMA........not too much on the negative side.....TESLA, purchased on 6-23-20 +157%.....SNOW, purchased on 9-17-20 +15.6%......NVIDIA, purchased on 8-21-20 +7.43%. BEING short term it is random chance that all the above are positive. I do not expect new purchases to jump to the positive BUT I will take it. Another week.......another dollar.....I hope.
WELL......markets are showing good strength as we head to the close. There was a nice little bump up at about 2:00 or so. Investing MEDIA theme of the day.....there are two.....the current shut down is going to cause a recession. This theme is based on what is happening to the economies of various socialistic.....small "s" socialistic....countries in the EU. Even though we ARE NOT seeing this over here, it is being pushed by financial media today. The second story of the day is that the markets are being driven by vaccine news. I DONT THINK SO......the vaccine news today was from AstraZeneca.....their vaccine is about 70% effective. REALLY GOOD data.......but....nowhere near the other vaccine results announced days ago that were 95% effective. SO.......to me......not really news since this vaccine severely under-performs the others that will be available.....probably quicker. BOTTOM LINE.......neither of these is the reason for the markets today. We are seeing a nice BOUNCE BACK today because the markets have incredible pent up demand, pent up funds, and pent up positive energy in OUR economy. We are seeing what we are today because the markets......as they have been doing since about March/April/May.......REFUSE to go down. The FOCUS.....as it should be........is on the time period about 5 months down the road when we RETURN TO NORMAL. Those that dont want to return to normal.......too bad......it is coming quickly. As people start to MOVE FORWARD......no one will care......if you want to hide in your house, be afraid to invest, afraid to go to work, afraid to face other people, etc, etc, etc. We played this weekend..........in a very cool venue in a tourist town about 100 miles away. HUGE crowds on the streets of the town and in the stores. ABSOLUTELY NO impact of this virus....."stuff". In fact there were more people and cars there than normal. Played a single set, two hour show, and made some nice money. The whole place was FULLY DECKED OUT for Christmas.
Nice close today. I was green with a loss to the SP500.....it got me by .20%. Dont care......being nicely green today was enough for me. About 400 points from DOW 30,000. A friend started talking about DOW 30,000 the other day. I told him...."if you are talking about DOW 30,000 again...I am going to sell EVERYTHING tomorrow". Last time he was talking about DOW 30,000 in February.....or so......at the peak.....next thing we know we are in the middle of a world wide pandemic and an economic collapse due to shutting down the economy. BUT.....this time I think he is right. We will hit DOW 30,000 some time over the next 3 weeks......at least that is my view.....year end at the latest.
I did not even notice earlier......that TESLA purchase was 5 months ago today. That is a nice return.....157% in 5 months. BUT.....being a forward looking investor.....my question to TESLA is.....what have you done for me lately and what will you do for me tomorrow. The past.....gets NO credit......it is past. At least I now have a pretty good cushion to ride out the inevitable drops that WILL occur from time to time.
This little article about "tomorrow" contains many HINTS as to what will DRIVE the markets to new all time highs over the next couple of months: Stock market news live updates: Futures add to gains, investors look to extend vaccine rally https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-november-24-2020-233338198.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Wall Street was poised to open higher on Tuesday, with stock futures indicating a willingness by investors to extend a rally on hopes that the deployment of a COVID-19 vaccine was imminent. Encouraging developments in the fight against the coronavirus carried major benchmarks within view of recent record highs on Monday. Although a relentless wave of new COVID-19 infections has crashed down on the global economy — driving up hospitalizations and deaths in its wake — major drugmakers have indicated that an inoculation is right around the corner. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now within striking distance of the psychologically-charged 30,000 level, which would be a fresh record. Investors also cheered news that President-elect Joe Biden was poised to nominate former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen — who is well regarded by Wall Street — as Treasury Secretary. Markets also ticked higher on news that the Trump administration would formally begin the transition process, in spite of President Donald Trump’s faltering effort to challenge the vote in key swing states. On Monday, University of Oxford and AstraZeneca (AZN) revealed that their candidate demonstrated efficacy of 70.4% in two large-scale trails, If a lower dose is used, then a second, full dose, the efficacy is up to 90%, the company said. However, AstraZeneca’s stock tumbled after one Wall Street analyst sharply questioned the efficacy of the inoculation, and raised questions about whether it would receive U.S. regulatory approval. Meanwhile, the U.S. plans to begin rolling out an antibody cocktail created by Regeneron (REGN) as early as Tuesday “Risk bulls could be excused for being slightly disappointed with the reaction so far to the very positive Astra-Zeneca news on the vaccine,” wrote Alan Ruskin, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a research note on Monday. Citing the market’s reaction to previously encouraging vaccine news, Ruskin posed a question: “Is a vaccine largely priced? The short answer is no.” In the immediate term, Ruskin said that some market bets are “starting to struggle. However, if the vaccines fulfill their promise, their impact would dominate the real economic landscape for the next 18 months at least,” he added. A fully inoculated public would be beneficial to beaten-down industries like travel, leisure and entertainment — all of which have been devastated by COVID-19 social distancing protocols. The AstraZeneca news came on the heels of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) announcing plans to file for an emergency use authorization with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which would allow them to have their vaccine used in the U.S. starting in December. Expectations for a relatively quick vaccine rollout have prospects for 2021 growth, while leading investors to unwind technology-heavy “stay at home” bets that previously bolstered key stocks like Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Zoom (ZOOM) and other names. Both the Dow (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) notched record closing highs last week, as traders rode a wave of exuberance sparked by the vaccine news. Also helping sentiment were manufacturing data that outpaced market expectations. U.S. business activity expanded at the fastest rate in more than five years this month. The survey was the latest indication the economy continues to extricate itself from the COVID-19 recession, even with new infections soaring. However, the near term outlook remains clouded by the relentless scourge of more COVID-19 infections, and the inability of Washington’s warring parties to agree on stimulus. The current wave of the virus is swamping the darkest days of March and April, threatening to overshadow the holidays and drag on growth. “This winter will be grim, and we believe the economy will contract again in 1Q, albeit at ‘only’ a 1.0% annualized rate,” JPMorgan Chase’s economics team wrote in a lengthy research note last week. “The economy no longer has that tailwind; instead it now faces the headwind of increasing restrictions on activity. The holiday season—from Thanksgiving through New Year’s—threatens a further increase in cases,” the bank said." MY COMMENT The MAJORITY of what I put in BOLD above will DRIVE the economy for the next couple of months and also for the next six months. GOING to be a lot of investors making a lot of money. ALSO.....going to be a lot of FEARFUL people that are siting on cash and on the sidelines NOT making that money and losing the POWER of compounding that comes with being in the markets during explosive moves up. It does NOT take bold thinking or decisive thinking to be invested at the moment. It is a GIVEN that the virus is DONE. When it is ALL said and done we will be looking at one of the most MASSIVE "V" shaped recoveries in history. The arm on the left side of the "V"....being about half an inch......and....the arm on the right side of the "V"....being about 12 inches high.
To reference your tsla what will u do vs what have you done for me lately, post. Open 2 new giga factories one in a new continent. Scale two new models with the openings, particularly austin. Blow everybody's mind with home energy revenue. Beat wedbush $1,000 bull case by some million deliveries, 2 yrs ahead of their expectation. Hopefully have full self driving. Available in small markets by 2022? Have the worlds best, cheapest and fasted produced lithium battery rollIng by 2021~2022?
VERY GOOD stuff....B Russ. YES......this is why I am NOT selling TESLA and taking my profit. It is a long term holding. I will let it run for as long as possible....hopefully many years. The BEST year for me is one in which I make ZERO changes in my portfolio. That means it is just humming along....with me doing nothing. Every position does not need to be booming....for me it is all about the return of the portfolio as a whole.
REMEMBER the ridiculous BALONEY we used to see in the general media a few years back about how the MILLENNIAL'S are different....they are not going to buy houses, they are going to live in the city center, they dont case about stuff....they want experiences...blah, blah, blah. WELL......they are TOTALLY driving the housing markets, they are FLOODING into the suburbs as they start to have children. THEY are following ALL the normal steps that we see with EVERY GENERATION. HERE is the latest housing data......yes....local, local, local. BUT...the strong housing market and price increases are SWEEPING the country. In my simple opinion MUCH of this is due to MILLENNIAL buyers. That generation has about 72 MILLION people. They are now the largest group in the country. They are now in prime home buying age....many of them will be turning 40 in the next year......they span the years 1981 to 1996.........many of them range from age 30 to 40. Those that are between ages 30 and 40 are entering their prime career years.......and......have gotten through the CONFUSING young adult years......they are fueling a baby boom and massive move to the suburbs. In my little area of about 3000 homes.......I noticed yesterday that we had ONE HOUSE for sale BELOW $1.2MIL. That ONE HOUSE is priced at $949,000. The next three homes for sale are $1.2MIL, $1.7MIL and $1.8MIL. That is it. Four homes for sale total with ONLY one BARELY below $1MIL. WE......are NOT a million dollar neighborhood.......average price is probably about $500,000 to $700,000........IF......big if.....you can find one to buy. A HOT, HOT, HOT, market. Home prices see biggest spike in 6 years in September, according to S&P Case Shiller https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/home-prices-see-biggest-spike-in-6-years-in-september.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Strong, Covid-induced demand from homebuyers over the summer caused an exceptionally strong spike in home prices. The 10-City Composite was up 6.2% year-over-year, up from 4.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.6% gain, up from 5.3% in the previous month. Strong, Covid-induced demand from homebuyers over the summer caused an exceptionally strong spike in home prices. Values jumped 7% annually, in September, up from a 5.8% annual gain in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. That is the largest annual gain since September 2014. Prices are now nearly 23% higher than their last peak in 2006. The 10-City Composite was up 6.2% year-over-year, up from 4.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.6% gain, up from 5.3% in the previous month. There was no reading for Detroit, due to data collection issues resulting from the pandemic. This index is a three-month running average, so it represents prices from July through September, when buyers were eagerly seeking homes with more space for working and schooling at home, due to the coronavirus. “Housing prices were notably – I am tempted to say ‘very’ – strong in September,” says Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This month’s increase may reflect a catch-up of COVID-depressed demand from earlier this year; it might also presage future strength, as COVID encourages potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. The next several months’ reports should help to shed light on this question.” Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego continued to see the highest annual gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in September. Home prices in Phoenix rose 11.4% year-over-year, followed by Seattle with a 10.1% increase and San Diego with a 9.5% increase. Dallas and New York saw the smallest annual gains but were still both up in the 4% range compared with September 2019. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending September 2020 versus the year ending August 2020. Low mortgage rates, which have set 13 new record lows so far this year, have helped fuel both demand and prices. Rates are now down about a full percentage point from a year ago. “The delayed spring homebuying season fueled sales well into October and past the time when they would normally begin to slow down,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at realtor.com. “Heading into winter, demand continues to be strong, driven by mortgage rates which have broken record lows 13 times this year and a growing list of companies which have extended their remote work policies well into 2021.” Adding to pressure on home prices is the ever shrinking supply of homes for sale, already at a record low. Inventory fell to a 2.5-month supply at the end of October, according to the National Association of Realtors. While single-family home construction is rising slowly, it is not even close to meeting the demand, especially in the lower price tiers. In addition, single-family building permits, which are an indicator of future construction, were basically flat in October month-to-month, according to the U.S. Census, suggesting construction is not going to rise significantly in the winter months." MY COMMENT In most areas there WILL NOT be a drop in activity in the winter. Sales and prices will remain very strong. If you own a house......great. If you are a house seller....great. If you are looking to buy......not so great. We have owned 10 different houses over our lifetime......the lowest price we have paid was our first house.....a HUD REPO for $16,000 in 1974 that was slightly on the wrong side of the tracks with a payment of about $160 per month. We were scared to death about being able to make that payment......we were young, low income buyers. The highest price we have ever paid was $800,000. Of the ten houses we owned.....out of the last six......five are now over $1MIL in value. The highest is now valued at about $2MIL. The ONLY one that is not over 1MIL in value is the current home that we downsized to......and.....it is quickly heading there. Of course.....to others....the values above are meaningless since you are talking about home purchases spread over about 46 years and the prices when we bought were relative to the ERA of the purchase.........and.....in the not too distant past (15-20 years ago) a house in a CEO type neighborhood was well under $1MIL in many areas.....even hot areas.
YIKES.......we are very close to .......TOUCHING.....DOW 30,000. But closing there is a different story....perhaps within a day or two.
GLAD.....to see gold prices dropping quickly over the past months. I will be making my little......2oz.....two coin.....purchase of "American gold Buffalo" coins at the start of the new year. If things hold or drop more.....it will be nice to save a little bit of money over where the prices were 4 months ago. NO......I am NOT a gold investor. I am just continuing a many decade habit of buying a little bit of metal at the start of each new year.
Gee great! Thanks for the grim news for us looking for a home! I suspend your posting privileges just for that forecast alone, and that’s not even discussing your DOW 30k forecast in the next 3 weeks (ok I know I know, that joke is getting old)
