The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. weight333

    weight333 New Member

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    I haven't posted in this thread since March but have been following along regularly. However, when I saw WXYZ's comments regarding collecting and specifically sports cards, I got excited and had to share my two cents.

    As a 38 year old, I have been collecting baseball cards since I was a child and collected through the 90s. It's true most of the cards from the 80s and 90s are extremely overprinted and virtually worthless, however, many of those short printed refractors and serial numbered inserts are seeing a rapid rise in prices especially in top grades (PSA being the top authenticator). I'm guessing that Griffey must be a 93 Finest Refractor? That's the cream of the crop for 90s refractors. I have a Barry Bonds 93 Finest REF in a PSA 9. Bonds refractors and high end inserts have climbed quickly over the past two years as collectors see his probability of getting Hall of Fame induction in the next year or two as a stronger possibility. I've always viewed my collection as a fun hobby and not an "investment" per say but the prices are making me ponder what they may be worth in another 20 years when I reach retirement age. These days I primarily buy only PSA graded cards from the 1950-70s and high end 90s inserts when I can find them. I'll be attending a show at the local Salvation Army this coming weekend.

    I see a strong link between the "collecting gene" and stock market participation. I enjoy following both closely but have only done so with the stock market for the last 5 years. I've contributed to my 457 aggressively since it's inception but started taking more interest in also adding to a brokerage account that was sitting mostly stagnant prior to 2017.
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Hi weight333.

    I think this is the refractor card that he has....see below. My friend has very few that are graded. The refractor he has is graded a PSA 10. He has hundreds and hundreds of Ken Griffey cards, probably most, if not all, of the rookie cards. (except for the really expensive ones) Many, many, obscure Griffey cards put out by bread companies and other weird companies. Many are ungraded.....but well cared for and well protected. I told him he needs to sort through the cards and get the ones that have the best potential graded. He gave up on collecting the cards back in the mid to late 1990's and has not followed them since than.

    UNFORTUNATELY......he has very few of the cards that were really expensive even back in the 1990's. AND.......unfortunately he went for QUANTITY over QUALITY.....other than that one card I talked him into.

    YOU are collecting the cream of the crop......PSA graded......1950 to 1970. I have seen some articles lately talking about the 1951 Bowman Mickey Mantle cards being VERY UNDERVALUED. BUT.....still high graded cards are in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.

    As a 38 year old with those types of cards.......you should be able to fund your retirement in 30 years. Do you buy through Heritage or any of the big auctions?

    1993 Finest Refractor
    Ken Griffey Baseball Card #110


     
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  3. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    To echo WXYZ sentiment earlier, I have expected a dull Monday and probably a struggling full week with some bright spots here and there.... Tech will probably take a nosedive as already we have seen 2 great companies in Zoom & early last week in NVDA reporting EXCELLENT earning reports but taking a beating soon thereafter. No shock there. Think I’m gonna take a week off from the markets and concentrate on decorating for Xmas.
    Last note... my feeling is that we will have a major “world event”within the next 30-60day, likely right before the new president gets sworn in. Not to get into politics here, but I heard this sentiment from different people on both sides of the isle over thanksgiving dinner. The notion is that Trump won’t go out quietly.
    Well I don’t agree or disagree, again, just for the sake of escalating this into a non-stock political chatter, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
    How big will it be? Will it affect the markets? Will it even happen?!?
    Let’s see......
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL......the day was as expected. BORING.....and tired. I was in the RED by a MINIMAL amount and BEAT the SP500 by .18%. Of my 12 stock holdings I ended 6 and 6. Six up and six down for the day.

    Good plan Zukodany. I did the outside decorating over the weekend. My spouse did the inside of the house except for the tree which we will do some time over the next week. It NEVER hurts to take a break from the markets. As a long term investor.....me being gone is meaningless.....since I dont do anything day to day anyway. Your portfolio will SOMEHOW survive without you watching for a week.

    As to some big event in the next 30-60 days. There WILL ABSOLUTELY NOT be any sort of political event. ALL the fear mongering and media "STUFF" about the transition or inauguration is just BALONEY. Everything is going to happen exactly as it always does. SO.....as an investor I do not see anything to do with the inauguration as going to impact investors.

    As to some other type of major world event over the next 30-60 days outside of politics that might impact investors........nothing seems apparent or imminent at the moment that I can see. I think a lot of people are experiencing post traumatic stress from the past 9 months of constant NOISE. BUT who knows. NOT having to fear short term events......like a 30-60 day time period........ is one of the benefits of being a LONG TERM investor.
     
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  5. Globetrotter

    Globetrotter New Member

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    Sounds good to take some time off, great idea to start decorating for Christmas Zukodany! We always try to fit the largest tree possible, although sometimes we need to cut a piece from the top to place the star.

    When Biden (eventually) takes office, which sectors do you think will benefit. Taking in considerations that Biden wants to improve relations with previous allies, including Europe. I suspect Boris Johnson's window of opportunity to take advantage from Brexit is over. Biden is already taking tough stances on the topic of open borders between Ireland and Northern Ireland and emphasizing on the "Good Friday agreement" which brought peace to Northern Ireland. Will this bring an end to the "Trumpian protectionism"?

    Biden's Answer to the BBC "I'm Irish": https://twitter.com/i/status/1325146584284323841

    Biden's Irish history:
     
    #2645 Globetrotter, Dec 1, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2020
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES......that is the kind of open that I like to see. In my opinion....the general market trend is STILL......UP.

    Notes on the November Pundits Say You Should Remember
    The bull market’s breadth is a lot longer-lived than headlines suggest.

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...-the-november-pundits-say-you-should-remember

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Have you heard the good news? Evidently, November is when the S&P 500’s rally finally became real. In addition to being an overall banger of a month with a 10.8% price return, more constituents rose than in any prior month since April. Headlines hyped this piece of trivia Monday, exclaiming their relief that this bull market has finally spread beyond huge Tech and Tech-like companies. The implication: The recovery is now real and value stocks’ time to shine has arrived. Thing is, the rally has long been a lot broader than pundits seem to think, and it has featured several value countertrends. Reading into any of November’s trivia as if they were significant or predictive is a recipe for error, in our view.

    Through last Friday’s close, of the companies that have been in the S&P 500 all year, 464 had positive returns for November.[ii] That is indeed the most since April, when 477 were positive.[iii] But it isn’t like the vast majority of S&P 500 constituents just stood still all spring and summer. Even before November’s barn burner, 487 S&P 500 companies had positive returns since the bear market’s March 23 low.[iv] So if you are inclined to be cheeky, you are welcome to point out that the rally actually narrowed in November. More importantly: The notion that Tech and Tech-like companies alone were driving this rally has been wrong from the start. This new bull market has always had broad participation. It just took a long while for people to notice, which speaks to sentiment, but that is about it.

    The heavy focus on value’s November leadership also speaks to sentiment. People keep looking for value to take the reins permanently. As Exhibit 1 shows, this isn’t value’s first turn with the baton since the bull market began in March. It has had several prior short bursts of leadership, and pundits seized on all of them as a sign of a permanent shift. Yet growth has led overall, and it takes a fundamental change in market conditions for longer-term leadership to shift. That is why value’s prior stretches of outperformance didn’t last—they stemmed from sentiment, not fundamental change.

    Exhibit 1: Growth and Value in This Bull Market

    [​IMG]
    Source: FactSet, as of 11/30/2020. MSCI World Growth and Value Index returns with net dividends, 3/23/2020 – 11/27/2020. Indexed to 1 at 3/23/2020.

    "We think that is likely the case this time, as well. For months, we have heard speculation that a vaccine would be a catalyst for small value-oriented stocks to outperform, as it would allow the businesses most hit by the pandemic to get back to normal. While that is possible, the theory is widespread—suggesting efficient markets have already incorporated the developments into pricing. Investors have been well aware of the various candidates and their progress in clinical trials for months now. If a vaccine were a fundamental driver for value leadership, then based on how markets generally work, it would have shown up in returns before November. So while we are monitoring growth and value trends, we think this suggests November’s pop was another sentiment-based reaction.

    Also favoring growth stocks: Financial conditions. Long-term bond yields might be up a smidge since summer, but they are still near generational lows, leaving yield curves globally quite flat. This is a headwind for value stocks, which tend to get the majority of their funding from bank loans rather than issuing corporate bonds. They also carry relatively higher debt, making them more of a credit risk than big growth stocks (which boast cash-rich balance sheets). When the yield curve flattens, it discourages lending to all but the most creditworthy companies—banks borrow at short rates and lend at long rates, so the yield curve spread is a proxy for their profit margins on new loans. A flat spread means flat profits and minimal reward for taking risk. Since value stocks are generally higher-risk for banks, a flat yield curve tightens credit availability. As a result, we have a strong hunch that even if a vaccine does turn on the revenue spigots for many of these companies, they will probably use that windfall to pay down debt and shore up the underlying business, rather than return mountains of cash to shareholders, which erases one of value stocks’ main attractions. Elsewhere, value-oriented Energy firms still face an oil glut that weighed on prices and profts even before the pandemic. Reigniting demand would help, but it will likely take a considerable resurgence.

    Value isn’t dead, and we think owning some for diversification’s sake is important. But we think it would take a fundamental shift and/or a notable deterioration in sentiment toward it—folks ceasing the continual hunt for a value catalyst—for its leadership to prove lasting. Thus far, we haven’t seen either one.

    Leadership or no, value stocks have participated in this bull market dating back to March. In our view, pundits’ inability to see this speaks to bleak pessimism that has led to so many dismissing the upturn for the entirety of its climb thus far. Perhaps that narrative changed in November. If so, fine, but investors shouldn’t see it as a material turning point for stocks. "

    MY COMMENT

    VALUE.....GROWTH......who cares. BOTH are going to continue to do well and will reward long term investors. The top ten stocks in the SP500 that are leading the markets.......are STILL going to lead the markets. Things have changed.....the MEDIA and financial professionals NO LONGER have the ability to jerk small investors around. They can CALL whatever they want......and....no one will pay attention. HERE is a key part of the article above:

    "Leadership or no, value stocks have participated in this bull market dating back to March. In our view, pundits’ inability to see this speaks to bleak pessimism that has led to so many dismissing the upturn for the entirety of its climb thus far."

    EXACTLY......the MEDIA and financial press and so called professional investors often have NO CLUE. THEY are a relentless pack of lemmings......running around......following each other.....but in reality often having no clue what or why anything is happening. They operate based on PR and hype and trying to cause short term market moves for their trading operations.

    AS I FINISH typing this......the markets have gone up significantly since I started. It is early in the day.....but....looks good to me. I CONTINUE to believe that we will see a GREAT SANTA RALLY this month and will see a BOOMING market over the next 4-6 months.
     
    #2646 WXYZ, Dec 1, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2020
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    EXHIBIT ONE in conjunction with the above post:

    Amazon sales surge during a record-breaking holiday shopping season

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/business/amazon-holiday-season-sales/index.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Amazon was already having a blowout year. And it's shaping up to be a record-breaking holiday shopping season, too.

    Shoppers have been increasingly relying on Amazon to deliver goods to their homes during the pandemic, and that has proven particularly true as infections soar during the colder months. Amazon said Tuesday that this year's holiday shopping season has been its largest (and longest) ever, which kicked off in mid-October with a delayed Prime Day.

    Amazon said the record sales had a halo effect on small- and medium-sized businesses that use the platform. Those online sellers brought in nearly $5 billion between Black Friday and Cyber Monday on Amazon — a 60% increase from last year. Amazon has been regularly criticized for destroying these types of businesses and promoting its own branded products instead.

    Top-selling items this year include Barack Obama's memoir "A Promised Land," the redesigned Echo Dot and the Revlon One-Step Hair Dryer and Volumizer Hot Air Brush. Self-care and home goods were also popular as more people are confined to their homes during the outbreak.

    Amazon has created more U.S. jobs in the last decade than any other company. These are jobs that pay at least $15 per hour, more than double the federal minimum wage.

    As usual, Amazon (AMZN) didn't release any specific sales numbers. But Adobe (ADBE) Analytics data showed online spending from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday broke records.

    The firm said Thanksgiving day sales grew 22% compared to last year to $5.1 billion and Black Friday sales jumped a similar amount to $9 billion. Cyber Monday raked in $10.8 in sales — a 15% jump compared to 2019 — becoming the largest online shopping day in US history. In total, the holiday shopping season has registered $106.5 billion in sales, an increase of 27.7%.

    "While Covid-19, the elections and uncertainty around stimulus packages impacted consumer shopping behaviors and made this an unprecedented year in ecommerce, we expect to see continued, record-breaking ecommerce sales from now until Christmas," said Taylor Schreiner, a director at Adobe Digital Insights, in a statement late Monday.

    Shopify (SHOP), a sales platform primarily used by small businesses, measured $5.1 billion in global sales over the four days between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, making it the largest weekend ever in its history.

    That's a sharp contrast to traffic at brick-and-mortar stores, which fell 52% on Black Friday compared to last year, according to a report from Sensormatic Solutions. Shopping traffic on Thanksgiving dropped by 95%, as many stores closed to give their employees time off and to avoid crowds.
    The pandemic and social distancing led shoppers to be more "purposeful" with in-person shopping, and many made their purchases online instead, Brian Field Sensormatic's senior director of global retail consulting, said in an earlier release. He predicts that people may head to stores on and after December 19 to do some last-minute holiday shopping."

    MY COMMENT

    YES.....the LEADERS......WILL LEAD going forward. I will say however.....there is a BIG DIFFERENCE between REAL results and business leadership and FAD. It is all about the REAL fundamentals. It is all about REALITY and seeing reality. Following the latest HOT FAD is going to end the SAME way it always does. The ability of investors to FOOL themselves will be alive and well as allways.
     
    #2647 WXYZ, Dec 1, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2020
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    OK....great.......nice little bump up in my account over the last 15 market minutes of the day. It increased my gains for the day by about a third. Not huge....but solid, day today with accounts all in the green. The SP500 got me by .42% today.

    HERE is the interesting news for me tomorrow:

    "Snowflake SNOW is set to release third-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Dec 2. Markedly, this would be the company's first earnings call."

    NOT that it REALLY matters, I only hold 100 shares in a few accounts. BUT....it is fun to follow this very new public company. The shares that I purchased the other day lost all their cushion by the close today and were very, very, slightly negative at the close. I have no clue what earnings will be. I DO KNOW that if they follow the trend of the past few years....perhaps even going back over the last 10 years.....the stock will be down REGARDLESS, based on some minor detail in the earnings....or......based on some forward looking statement. STILL....the company is at the beginning of establishing some FUNDAMENTAL data.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I happened to drive past the TESLA site the other night. Most of the site was LIT UP by HUGE lights. there were at least 8 cranes working on the site and in one area they were SITLL driving pilings into the ground. In two different areas they a e starting to raise up the massive concrete beams that will form the interior support of the structures being built. From the road the buildings look to be somewhere between three and five stories tall.

    Here is how it looks right now:

    Checking in on Tesla’s Austin-area factory

    https://www.statesman.com/business/20201130/checking-in-on-teslarsquos-austin-area-factory

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Construction of the planned Tesla factory in southeastern Travis County has been proceeding so fast that watching it take shape is practically a spectator sport.

    Here are five things to know about the facility, which is at Texas 130 and Harold Green Road.

    [​IMG]

    1. Tesla appears intent on producing more than cars here

    The company has said it will manufacture many of its electric vehicles at the factory, but it has filed for a permit from the state to produce batteries as well. That would make the facility among the first Tesla locations to have both full-scale battery and vehicle production.

    Tesla, which is based in California, hasn’t publicly confirmed the battery operation, but an air-quality permit application it filed with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality makes things pretty clear.

    The facility is proposing to operate a cell-manufacturing unit to produce the battery packs that are installed in the vehicle. The final product from this operation are the cells,” the application says.

    [​IMG]


    2. Speaking of electric vehicles ...

    The new manufacturing plant will be a key site for Tesla as it attempts to break into the U.S. market for pickups now dominated by Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler, the so-called Big Three automakers.

    The factory, just outside Austin in Travis County, will be the launching point for Tesla’s electric pickup — which it is calling the Cybertruck because of the vehicle’s unconventional, sci-fi appearance.

    Tesla also has said the plant will serve demand in the eastern and central portions of the country for its Model 3 compact sedan and for its recently introduced Model Y compact sport utility vehicle. In addition, it will produce Tesla’s planned commercial semi-truck for long-haul shipping.

    The new manufacturing plant will be just the company’s second in the United States and fourth in the world.

    [​IMG]


    3. Hiring has begun

    When Tesla executives sought taxpayer-funded incentives earlier this year to locate the factory in Travis County, they pledged to employ a minimum of 5,000 people here eventually.

    The company appears to have hit the ground running on that target, even though the factory remains a long way from operational. Dozens of jobs have been listed on Tesla’s corporate website for positions in Austin.

    Rohan Patel, Tesla’s senior director of public policy and business development, said recently that the company also plans to forge partnerships with area high schools, colleges, workforce training agencies and trade groups as it builds its roster of employees in the region.


    “We need access to the best, we need access to a lot of folks, and we need trained people, and we need to have those partnerships in place,” Patel said, speaking during a recent panel discussion on regional workforce development.

    Travis County and the Del Valle school district helped lure Tesla here by approving tax breaks sought by Tesla that are valued at a minimum of about $60 million combined.

    4. Next year, the first Texas-made Tesla vehicles could roll off the factory floor.

    Tesla hasn’t provided an official public timeline for the project. But Elon Musk, the company’s maverick CEO, has said he hopes to have the factory running — and possibly turning out Cybertrucks — by late 2021.

    In addition, Tesla documents dated from this summer peg May 1 as the date for “first substantial completion” of the plant. It’s unclear how soon after that milestone actual vehicle production will begin, however, and Tesla hasn’t said.

    Still, Musk, a billionaire, is accustomed to getting what he wants, so it appears to be a good bet that the Austin-area factory will be in production sometime in 2021.

    5. What else does Musk and Tesla have in store for the Austin area?

    Battery production wasn’t publicly discussed when the prospect of a local Tesla factory first was raised, but now it appears to be a big part of the company’s plans.

    In addition, another Musk-led business, a tunneling and infrastructure transportation firm called the Boring Company, recently hinted that Musk has additional efforts in the works here as well.

    “Rumor has it that ‘Austin Chalk’ is geologically one of best soils for tunneling. Want to find out? Austin jobs now available,” the company said on its Twitter this month.

    It’s unclear where and why the company would be planning to tunnel in the Austin area.

    But Musk — himself an energetic, if cryptic, Twitter user — appears to have taken a liking to the region, meaning more surprises could be brewing."

    [​IMG]




    MY COMMENT

    VERY cool all lit up at night.

    PHOTO CREDIT: those photos are NOT part of the article. They were taken by JOE TEGTMEYER and are great quality work.
     
    #2649 WXYZ, Dec 1, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2020
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    DONT ACCUSE ME.........of being a market cheerleader. Of course......I am. When you have a long term investor mentality.....as I do.....the future is ALWAYS positive at some point out there. For those that are NEGATIVE...here is the current negative sentiment....at least what I can find:

    Thinking of putting new cash to work? Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub suggests waiting until after December

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/01/trouble-lurks-for-stock-market-in-december-credit-suisse-warns-.html

    AND

    Harry Dent: Stocks to crash 40% by April and won't rebound for decades, here's why

    https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-11-...and-won-t-rebound-for-decades-here-s-why.html

    AND

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...naling-says-contrarian-strategist-11606824335

    AND

    An investment chief who crushed the market during the coronavirus crash sees the S&P 500 crashing 20% in the near term — but says investors should buy these 2 stocks on the dip

    https://markets.businessinsider.com...ortunity-mcdonald-hercules-2020-11-1029807231

    MY COMMENT

    Do I believe any of this "stuff"......no. BUT...here it is for those that want the negative view. Most of what I see here is simply WILD ASS GUESSWORK. BUT who knows.......so.......if you like to live in the DARK SIDE of the markets....here you go. Pretty pathetic stuff....you would think there would be better arguments for a big crash or market drop. PERHAPS the ABSENCE of a good article making the negative case is actually a contrary indicator of a coming crash. Do I believe this.......NO.
     
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  11. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    To be honest, I like coming to this board because of the optimism and positive attitude this thread seems to bring. As opposed to most of the yahoo finance, motley fool, market watch, et al sites which posts articles almost all spun negatively. Helps me remember that the day to day negativity doesn’t really matter in the long run.
     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    EMMETT

    I bought my two gold BUFFALO coins on Monday. That day gold ranged from $1766 to $1785. At the moment spot gold is at $1828. Of course....when you buy new US gold coins you pay a premium over the spot price of gold. I NORMALLY buy a little gold or in the past silver at year end.....but....I decided to do the buy NOW......using funds from next years budget...... since I anticipate the price of gold going up over the next month or so. I DO NOT follow gold in the slightest....so that opinion about prices rising short term is simply a feeling and a guess.

    Earlier I mentioned that I do NOT see gold as an investment.......at least for me. Emmett......(one of my favorites on this site).....asked how that could be. WELL....gold can certainly be an investing vehicle.....especially for those that trade futures and larger amounts or speculate in it. BUT....for me.....I do not consider my holding of any silver or gold as an investment. Yes, it will go up and down day to day. AND...there is potential to make or lose money. BUT....I see it like buying a piece of art....over time it might increase in value....in fact most that I buy DOES increase in value......but I do not buy it as a direct investment.....and.....I do not care what the price does. I guess I could call it.....for me...... an indirect investment. The value may change over time and may go up...but that is NOT why I buy it. To me it is just a fun little extension of the family tradition that my parents started.....giving each adult member a 1oz silver coin on their birthday and for Christmas each year. We have continued this tradition with our kids and their spouses. At the same time it is the ULTIMATE EMERGENCY vehicle.
     
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  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Amen, brother.

    "The future does not belong to the pessimists." - Warren Buffett
     
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ANOTHER slow, lingering, open today. Minimal "stuff" going on in my accounts presently......a little red. I think there is a potential for the markets to gain a little strength as the day moves on toward the close....just a feel for where we are. BUT....I really dont see a lot of energy in the markets right now. Post election and virus let down......people and investors are just tired.

    SNOW reports after the bell today....that is the event of the day that I am curious to see and am interested in how the stock reacts as well as the professionals opinions.

    My accounts in general are JUST BELOW all time highs at the moment. We NEED to get these markets KICK STARTED and moving on up. SP500 at the moment is at +13.41% year to date......I would REALLY like to see us at +17% or higher at year end. DEFINITELY doable........I believe it WILL happen. AFTER what we have gone through this year...........WE DESERVE IT.
     
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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Jwalker......WELL SAID. I agree. I have NEVER been a negativity focused investor. Actually.....I dont see how you could be a long term investor and be negative all the time. My opinion is that MOST of the negative stuff is just short term sensationalism aimed at clicks. PURE opinion and fantasy by LAZY media or by short sellers and others trying to manipulate the markets in their favor.
     
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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    So many people think they are smarter than everyone else and, therefore, will dominate the stock market. Pretty much all of these people will say they are plundering when it's pretty clear roughly all of them are having their asses handed to them.

    Tom's opinion of what is not needed to do well in the market: extreme intellect, formal training, insider knowledge

    Tom's opinion of what is needed to do well in the market: objectivity, positive outlook, patience


    Also, the average person seems to equate stock brokers with market expertise. I worked at a bank, some decades ago. At that time, I had an opportunity to join an internal course on trading and I ended up getting my license. I've never executed a trade order in my life, only issued them, but it was interesting to see how the mechanism worked. Not one second of that course or exam had anything to do with what companies will do well over time. Understanding how a brokerage works and understanding companies are two entirely different things with zero need for connection. So, people who go to their bank for "expert advice" are misguided in thinking a bank teller knows how to manage money.

    By the way, I have significantly more wealth than any of the people who work on the trading desk at the last financial institution I worked at. While they were busy following hot tips, I was mostly ignoring my portfolio because I already knew trading was a fools errand.


    The most successful people I know are folks like WXYZ who buys good companies and then lets them build wealth for a decade or two while they get on with their lives.

    The traders I know are all within a couple of house payments of defaulting on their mortgages, if they were to lose their jobs. These folks see a cash windfall around every corner but, somehow, it never quite happens.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AGREE...TomB16.....wise words below:

    "Tom's opinion of what is not needed to do well in the market: extreme intellect, formal training, insider knowledge.
    Tom's opinion of what is needed to do well in the market: objectivity, positive outlook, patience."

    SNOWFLAKE had their first earnings report as a public company today......here is the data:

    Snowflake shows 119% revenue growth in first earnings report as a public company

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/02/snowflake-snow-earnings-q3-2021.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Snowflake’s revenue growth was roughly in line with the prior quarter.
    • The company’s shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in September as Berkshire Hathaway and Salesforce invested.

    Shares of Snowflake fell as much as 8% in extended trading on Wednesday after the data-warehousing software maker issued its first quarterly financial results as a public company.

    Here’s how Snowflake performed:

    • Earnings: Loss of $1.01 per share.
    • Revenue: $159.6 million.
    Snowflake’s revenue grew 119% year over year in its fiscal third quarter, which ended on Oct. 31, according to a statement. In the previous quarter it delivered 121% growth. Losses narrowed from $1.92 per share in the year-ago quarter, while gross margin fell to 58.2% from 59.6%.

    The company’s software provides a cloud-based alternative to data warehouses that unify a variety of data and execute queries with on-premises hardware and software. The coronavirus pandemic has driven greater interest in Snowflake, CEO Frank Slootman said in April. Competition comes from the top public clouds, which also happen to be key suppliers for Snowflake, Slootman told analysts on a conference call on Wednesday.

    The company said for the fiscal fourth quarter it expects $162 million to $167 million in product revenue, which represented 93% of total revenue in the fiscal third quarter. Snowflake said at that range, product revenue would be up 97% to 103% year over year.

    Snowflake said it now has 65 customers contributing over $1 million in product revenue over the trailing 12 months. The company reported $927.9 million in remaining performance obligation for contracted revenue that hasn’t been recognized, up 240% on an annualized basis.

    Over time Snowflake can widen its margins to the mid-70% range by receiving more favorable pricing from cloud providers such as Amazon and Microsoft, along with becoming larger and cutting back on discounts, Mike Scarpelli, Snowflake’s finance chief, said on the call.

    In September Snowflake completed its initial public offering and joined the New York Stock Exchange with Berkshire Hathaway and Salesforce investing. The stock closed at $253.93 per share on its first day of trading and has since increased about 15% since then, excluding Wednesday’s stock move, compared with a 8% increase for the S&P 500 over the same stretch."

    MY COMMENT

    OK.....from here on there will be data accumulating that will allow accurate comparison from quarter to quarter. A very young and speculative company.
     
    #2657 WXYZ, Dec 2, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2020
  18. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Yup this week all the HUGE tech companies recorded extraordinary earning reports... ZM, CRM, SNOW and tomorrow DOCU... but the latest trend is to ditch tech for pre covid Dow stocks so you’re seeing a shit show of an outcome. Great time to buy these companies... covid schmovid.. they will all outpace current levels and will be here when the next covid hits... I mean... when covid goes away
    Tomorrow’s DOCU earnings will make that stock sink by Fridays open... here millennials- I just gave you a tip
     
  19. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Now.. back to my Xmas tree
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I could not get into Schwab earlier. They must have been having some sort of issue. Just as well since I ended minor to moderate RED and got beat by the SP500 by .71%. Onward and upward....tomorrow is the future....today is the past.

    At least in general today we saw the DOW and the SP500 end positive. The DOW is.....severely.....lagging the SP500 which is +13.56% for the year.....versus.....+4.71% for the DOW. As I have said before.....I dont think the DOW is relevant any more.....merely SYMBOLIC. I dont think it reflects either the markets in general or the economy.

    As to SNOW.......I dont know what people expect. With the type of business they are in and how early they are in their company life....you would not expect MASSIVE results. I see them as.........most probable....... a medium term......2-4 year..... ACQUISITION TARGET.....perhaps by Microsoft, Amazon, or Salesforce. Or....as a less probable alternative....they become a stand alone, long term power company. OR.....third alternative......they never mature into what people think they will be.......due to their technology being leapfrogged and made less desirable or other causes. WAY TOO EARLY to know.

    The NEXT exciting event will be the addition to TESLA to the SP500 on December 21. I am interested to see how the markets and all the SP500 Index funds react to that event.
     

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