Had a fantastic week. DOCU performed better than expected. And... I sold my TWLO today. Like.. all of it... great company to own I think but after seeing a drop with Splunk (i seriously considered buying them when I bought TWLO) I decided to cash in and move on. It was in my temporary account anyways so i have no regrets. I’m considering going in and getting some bio tech position with that money. Many great companies out there and the rush for the vaccine is making them all very promising. We’ll see what happens next week. Portfolio is at an all time high today. This week was a good one!
Advice: I know y’all aren’t professionals but I’m going to ask you anyway, because well I figure that guys that are on a Stockaholics board probably know more than their fair share on investing type topics. So here it is — I use Morningstar to track my portfolio. I’m 43 now. I was a straight indexer. Then, I ported 30% of my investments over to a broker. Then I took 10% of what I had and grew it way faster than the broker, and now I’m at the point where I’m figuring that I can let Vanguard run 50%, while I manage the other 50%. So, first question — ya think that’s a good or bad idea? Second, what’s the right number of stocks to track on one’s own (WXYZ/Tom how many stocks/funds do you own?) Third, I’m 43 — we’re in good position to retire early. I don’t want to ball up and go conservative, but at the same time I don’t want to take unnecessary risks. Here are the individual stocks I’m in on: Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Snowflake, CostCo, Alteryx, 3M, and Qorvo. Tech heavy, but really where I see the market in five years. What is your top stock that you’d add to my picks? I like to pick and hold for 3 months. I re-evaluate constantly, but try to only readjust quarterly.
Chris HERE is my actual portfolio. This might give you some idea of my thinking as a long term 71 year old investor. This MODEL PORTFOLIO is the same as my actual portfolios. The moves that are documented in this thread are put on here within hours of the REAL TRADE or MOVE being done in real life. There is no right or wrong in investing. I do not use a broker to manage anything....so that tells you my BIAS about handling your own investments. I think anyone that feels like they have the experience to do so.......as well as the risk tolerance.......and can......avoid micro-management and churning their account MIGHT be in a good position to try to manage their own investments. It is one of those things......you never know till you try. If for some reason it does not work out.....you can always go back to the professional management. The current market conditions are EXTREMELY ABNORMAL......so realize that going in. FOR MY TASTE.....3 months is WAY too short for a holding period. I personally prefer as an IDEAL..... a time horizan of at least 3-5 years. I DO NOT EVER readjust and I do NOT make quarterly changes in my mix. I RIDE WINNERS for as long as possible. FOR ME....the right number of stocks is 10-15. I prefer to IDEALLY have about 12 or 13 stocks. I own TWO FUNDS, a SP500 Index Fund and Fidelity Contra Fund. See below for more info on what and why I do things the way I do. IF I WAS YOU.....I might consider Nike, or Honeywell or Home Depot......as BIG CAP ICONS that are NOT in the tech world.......of course I DO OWN THEM. "HERE is a repeat of the portfolio model.......as usual: I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 55% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 45% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 12 stock portfolio. At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Honeywell Nike Microsoft Proctor & Gamble Tesla Nvidia Snow (100 shares, a rare, long term, speculative holding) MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (71). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my twelve stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."
POWERFUL markets today. I quit paying attention about 12:30 and it looks like the markets powered their way into the close. I ended up nicely green today......helped along by.....NKE, MSFT, HON, SNOW, NVDA, TSLA, PG and GOOGL. I was able to get a small beat of the SP500 by .02%. I am not complaining.........SNOW ended the day +$48 per share. I will take it and hang on for the ride. BUT.....some times I wish I was a trader. If so I could sell out on SNOW with a 68.7% PROFIT following my purchase on 9-16-20. UNFORTUNATELY......well actually FORTUNATELY since I have no interest in being a trader.....I am not a trader and this is a long term speculative holding....so I will enjoy the ride and put up with the inevitable UP and DOWN times ahead. I really dont see much to justify this action in the stock other than MOMENTUM......and I am guessing......traders using it as a trading vehicle. ZUKODANY.....I am also at an all time high today.....barely. Looking forward to the next months for many more.
Thank you WXYZ — i appreciate your thoughts. I’m really glad you brought up Fidelity’s ContraFund. That’s one I had heard of before, but hadn’t thought much about. I’ll take a deeper dive there.
I nearly forgot: SP500 year to date +14.50% SP500 for the week +1.67% DOW year to date +5.89% DOW for the week +1.03% We have 18 market days left in 2020. We are LOOKING GOOD for a year end between +17% and +22%. AMAZING.....who would have thought back in March. TOTAL CONFIRMATION of the LONG TERM investing style.
Chris.....here is why I have been an owner of Fidelity Contra Fund for many decades. Year to date......the fund is at +29.02% versus 14.50% for the SP500. One year....the fund is at 32.19% versus 17.46% for the SP500. Three year......the fund is at 17.92% versus 13.17% for the SP500 Five year......the fund is at 17.12% versus 13.99% for the SP500 Ten year......the fund is at 15.48%....versus 14.19% for the SP500 Life of the fund (launched in 1967)......the fund is at 12.87%.....the GOLDEN time period is the past 30 years under manager Will Danoff. I have owned this fund for that entire "DANOFF ERA". SP500 long term return.....10% to 11%. From Bloomberg: "Will Danoff is an outlier. He is the sole manager of Fidelity Investments’ storied Contrafund, a $139 billion large-cap growth fund. No one else in the country runs a fund that big by themselves. What’s more impressive is that the Contrafund has outperformed the S&P 500 Index 100% of the time in rolling 10-year time periods since Danoff took the helm three decades ago. The fund’s returns beat the market by an average of 3.21 percentage points per year over that time." MY COMMENT UNBELIEVABLE record and a nearly IMPOSSIBLE feat.
HERE is a site that I use a lot and like. I do not pay anything to use this site. I like them for stock research. They have good DEEP data on financials and other items in an easy to use and easy to compare format. https://www.macrotrends.net/ Macrotrends - The Premier Research Platform for Long Term Investors Stock screener with over 50 performance and fundamental criteria. 50+ years of historical stock price and dividend data. 10 years of quarterly stock fundamental data. 100+ years of inflation-adjusted data for major market indices. 100+ years of precious metals data. 45 years of commodity, interest rate and exchange rate data. 100+ years of economic data. I use this site for basic FUNDAMENTAL FINANCIAL research when I am considering or curious about a company. It also has GOOD historical data on the economy and stocks. When I am considering a stock I look for ANY AND ALL articles online with analysis....after all.....why should I do a lot of work if it is easily available. I ALSO take a look at ALL the financials on the above site to get MY OWN feel for the company FUNDAMENTALS. FOR EXAMPLE.....today I was curious about SALESFORCE....CRM....due to the recent coverage of their purchase of SLACK. So....I want to the research page and had all the following at my fingertips: Prices Financials Revenue & Profit Assets & Liabilities Margins Price Ratios Other Ratios Other Metrics Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement Once you click on one of these tabs.....for example Revenue....that you have available SUB-/TABS of additional information. For example under the "REVENUE" tab you have the sub-tabs: Revenue Gross Profit Operating Income EBITDA Net Income EPS Shares Outstanding I keep this site bookmarked.
Hi Chris. I will answer here since you asked directly. 50% vangaurd - sounds like a good idea based on careful study of performance over time. I currently own 8 publicly traded companies. How many you can research and follow will vary with each person but i put a ton of time into following 20 stocks and couldn't do it to the level I need. My research is deep so your experience may vary. Whats more, the more successful we've become, the less interested I am in spending many hours per day reading reports and news on any given company. Two years from now, i expect to be down to 6 stocks and one index. Three of our current holdings are tiny amounts of value that i don't take all that seriously. Five years from now, that number will probably be down to 3. There are two companies i believe in profoundly. One is tesla. Im pleased to own both, heavily, but the non-tesla company is never going to catch up to the return i have gotten from tesla. That doesnt mean it is a bad investment or that it is performing poorly; it just isnt a cinderella story. Don't underestimate the value of good people working hard. These are the folks who make the world go round and exactly the people I trust with my nest egg. It sounds like you have a methodical, structured approach, some self awareness, and are reasonably objective. There is no doubt you will do very well over time.
SP500 - 90 Year Historical Chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data'>S&P The chart above is interactive. I think it is interesting to look at the last 90 years of the SP500. Today I was focused on the BEAR MARKETS. There have been a few since the 1960's. THESE are REAL.......soul sucking, wear you down and spit you out......bear markets. The MODERN bear markets are on this chart. The first and I believe the absolute worst started in November of 1968 and continued to June of 1982. A very dismal time in general. Rampant STAGFLATION, the gas crises, the Iran hostage crises, and much political turmoil. The SP hit the November 1968 level, 797, on January of 1993. The next bear market on the chart is the time from March 2000 to about February 2003. The SP500 was at 2287 on March 2000 and by February 2003 it was at 1196. This nasty little bear market hit about a year or so into my retirement in early 1999. Not a good way to start out.......but you have to be prepared for this sort of thing in your planing. The next bear market is one that most current investors lived through not too long ago. August 2007 the SP500 was at 1845. By February 2009......a year and a half later......the SP was at 901. The index finally got back to 1845 in September of 2013. The strange thing is.....I made good money during all those time periods. I attribute that to long term investing and at times taking advantage of a BIG opportunity.........like going in big into MSFT in 1990. It is HARD to survive a NORMAL, multi year bear market. MOST people will be beaten down.....severely....and will ultimately give in and sell to try to preserve what they have. Within each of those times there is much movement up and down. I invested through those times with my same simple portfolio theory........half stocks half funds........although the stocks owned vary during different decades.
I have been TOTALLY out of touch with news or markets today. Not a bad thing since my portfolio is on AUTOMATIC PILOT as a long term account. When I saw that it was a mixed market today.....with the NASDAQ positive......I assumed that I had a gain. So, no surprise when I finally just looked at my account. Appears to be one of those days today when the markets slowly open down and than very slowly pick up steam to the negative side as the day goes on. In other words......a NORMAL day......in the current markets where we see the constant battle between the UP days and the DOWN days. Although.....we do know that the market BULLS are winning the battle since we have a really nice gain....year to date.....in the SP500. We also know that it is a good year by the fact that.......PROBABLY......most posters here are at or near an all time high in their account. We are in one of those times......I have seen them in the past at various times.......where stock investors are enjoying a very good year......even though the economy and others may not be. Of course.....us stock investors had to go thorough hell this year to get to this point. I see it as confirmation......ONCE AGAIN......as to the POWER of long term investing. Being a long term investor INSURES that you are in the markets to take advantage of the explosive moves that happen at the craziest most unexpected times.
NICE DAY today compliments of the NASDAQ. Good overall day....in the green. ALSO a good beat down of the SP500 by .87%. I was watching the close over the last 15 minutes of trading today. Focusing on the DOW. With ten minutes to go we were DOWN about 240 points. As those ten minutes went by......there was seventy point move in the DOW to the positive to close at 30,069. LOTS of buying at the close.....lots of buying into the weakness of the day at the close I suspect that will foretell a nice positive open tomorrow. We are in a TOTALLY news driven market the past week or two. If we can get a nice positive news item........that will kick things off for a few days.
AS an INVESTOR......I like this little article. I ALSO like.....CEO TYPES.....that are aggressively positive toward their company......if they are being totally accurate. CEO of this Warren Buffett-backed tech juggernaut says it has just scratched the surface of cloud computing https://finance.yahoo.com/news/snow...-the-surface-of-whats-possible-175510678.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "CEO of this Warren Buffett-backed tech juggernaut says it has just scratched the surface of cloud computing" "Veteran software executive turn CEO of Snowflake Frank Slootman (aka leader of the hottest tech IPO of 2020) says his company’s early mover position with a data cloud business model will be essential to power the corporations of the future. “Snowflake is 100% essential, and I am not just saying that because we are Snowflake,” Slootman told Yahoo Finance Live. “If you look at the history of cloud computing, the data later is crucial and essential.” In its most simplest terms, Snowflake’s data cloud allows companies to break down silos in data they collect in the cloud. The pitch is that better access to data-driven information will lead to faster decision-making inside a company and possibly, better financials. The pitch from Snowflake (SNOW) attracted big name investors such as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (which still owns 6.1 million shares) before Snowflake made its public debut in mid-September. Snowflake’s high-profile investor base — coupled with Slootman’s careful selection of more long-term minded investors — went a long way to signal to the market that the company could be a successful, profitable tech entity. Shares shot up 111.6% to about $226 on the company’s first day of trading on Sept. 16. And they haven’t looked back since, with the stock now trading a stone’s throw away from $400. The company’s first quarter as a public company went a long way to justifying the bull case on the stock. Total revenue surged 119% from a year ago to $159.6 million. The company lost $168 million as it invested to scale up its business. But it’s the company-specific metrics on Snowflake that highlight what most on the Street are seeing in the company. First, the company was able to raise prices by 7% in the third quarter despite volatile economic conditions brought on the pandemic. Second, Snowflake added 437 new customers in the third quarter, up from 397 in the second quarter. It added nine customers spending over $1 million a year. Finally, Snowflake’s client retention rate ticked up to 162% in the third quarter from 158% in the second quarter. “This growth is suggestive of a very large TAM [total addressable market] and clear product market fit,” says Deutsche Bank analyst Patrick Colville. BTIG analyst Stefan Schwarz was upbeat as well after the quarter. “Overall, we thought it was a good report. Third quarter trends were encouraging, and we came away with a higher degree of confidence in the long term growth story,” Schwarz noted. The next tailwind to Snowflake’s stock could be a new wave of analysts upgrading shares after months of voicing concern over valuation. Out of the 22 sell-side analysts covering Snowflake, 12 rate it a Hold compared to nine Buys and one Sell. The average price target is $295, and the highest is $350 — both way below the aforementioned $396 current bid. Slootman probably wouldn’t be surprised by the Street catching up to Snowflake’s story. Remember, he does see Snowflake as an essential service especially during the pandemic. “We definitely see an increased interest in data analytics as a function of this crisis,” Slootman said." My COMMENT Sounds good to me. If they can SCALE this business and SELL this product and avoid ending up as a one trick pony takeover target this could be a killer company. SPEAKING of killer companies....TESLA....$642 today. What a MONSTER. I bought at $1000 per share and here we are.......I am too lazy to look up the date......perhaps 6 months down the road.....and.....we are at the equivalent of about $3210 per share. OUTRAGEOUS. ALSO good news regarding the APPLE chips. They are apparently in testing on an INTEL beating chip for the MAC. No reason to pay Intel.....just keep that chip money and increased profit from cheaper chips in house. This is the sort of CORPORATE GREED that I like. Keep everything in house and pass the savings on to the business and shareholders.......hopefully.....the TRUE meaning of creating shareholder value. "Apple Aims to Unveil Intel-Beating Chips as Early as Spring Apple's aims to unveil a line of Macintosh chips, with performance stronger than that of Intel's, as early as spring, a media report says." https://www.thestreet.com/investing/apple-could-launch-intel-beating-chips-as-early-as-spring
Excellent kick off for the week, I was up a full 1.01 percent. All time high. And all that on the heels of a sell off of one strong position last week? I’ll take it! WXYZ thank you for sharing all this VALUABLE information with us - your knowledge and wisdom are a major guidance for me and I believe many others. Once again... where the F do I send the check to?!? I have bookmarked your site and will go through it tonight. I use https://simplywall.st/ for company research But they do ask that you become a paying member at some point. Their visual analysis is very appealing to me. I am very curious about bear years, as I have only been invested for 18 months now and I love it. I know that we had a disastrous year, and that it got us into bear territory, but would you consider going through this pandemic dip a “bear market”? Or was it more of a glitch? Curious to hear your and others opinion on that mainly bcs i managed to survive this “bear episode” and wonder if that could be compared to the other bear years in history? Not sure if my question makes sense Anyway, happy investing!
Hello all, let the good long term investments roll. I have a question, is it too late to add money to buy more shares of the same stock? When is the best time to add or should I just sit it out until the very best deal comes along? Thanks in advance, don't know if I have said this lately, but I really enjoy this forum.
I will message you the address to send my check....... ZUKODANY. NO......just kidding.....I make NO MONEY from this site. YOU know on the topic of BEAR MARKETS and CORRECTIONS. YES.....I do consider the definitions of a 10% or more drop for a correction and 20-25% of more drop for a bear market to STILL be the general standard. HOWEVER....I also believe a REAL correction should last for months....not weeks. AND.....a REAL bear market should last at the minimum 4-6 months OR more. I think it is CRAZY how people now call a week or two drop a correction......or.....some event that lasts about a month or less....a bear market. THESE sorts of events are simply the general market range these days.....not negative events. THERE IS NO DOUBT that we will see a BEAR MARKET some time in the future. WHEN.......who knows. I am talking about a REAL bear market.....a drop by 20-40% that lasts a year to two to three years. I would not consider this pandemic dip a bear market in the slightest. First the drop was caused by a totally artificial event and second it did not last long enough......at least for me to call it a bear market. Perhaps we are beyond the use of the terms "correction" and "bear market" now and into a NEW ERA of MICRO-EVENTS that just last weeks or a month or two. BUT....anytime everyone starts talking about a new era.....the OLD ERA has a nasty way of reappearing. That is one reason I was looking at the SP500 chart.....to REMIND myself of the really NASTY impact of past bear markets. I think a lot of people are getting a little carried away right now with their investing and do not realize the inherent danger that is always present......especially.....if you are NOT long term in your approach and thinking. The KEY words are RATIONAL and REASONABLE and REALITY.
WXYZ, THANKS for all you do by your posting, comments, sharing, answering questions, and everything with the extra mile. Thank you again, look forward to your next post. Happy investing and continued blessings.
Thank you BIGMAIX......you know me....I never wait to time the markets. When I want to buy a position or add to a position.....I do it NOW. If my THESIS is reasonable in terms of the future of the company.....I want to be in it NOW not later. I believe the research supports this.....so I prefer to go with the PROBABILLITY. ALSO.....at this moment......I see the markets over the next 6 months as being VERY much to the positive side of PROBABILITY. SO....I want my money in the markets and working. Of course......that is what I try to do ALL THE TIME....being a fully invested, all the time, long term investor
I was thinking about what Bigmaix asked above about invest now or wait for the best price in the future. ONE reason that it is EASY for me to invest NOW is the fact that I am......usually.......not talking about adding OUTSIDE MONEY to an account. If I am buying something.....it is usually because I sold something. As a result....most of the time......when I am investing money it is ALREADY stock market money. SO......I see the move as a LATERAL MOVE......taking money from the market in one holding and investing it in the market in another holding....hopefully.....a BETTER holding. Of course....being a long term investor.....my HOPE is to NOT sell anything in a year. That means all my holdings are performing nicely or the portfolio as a whole is performing nicely. Once in a while I have some NEW money to invest.....but usually not.....since I am retired. I DO invest a lump sum of money into my account at the start of each year since I do not need all of my income for living expenses. As to BEAR MARKETS......I am NOT being negative by thinking about bad markets. I dont worry about bear markets or any other sort of market. PRIMARILY because I simply hold through them all....good or bad......I TRUST the BIG CAP companies that I own to do the heavy lifting. LOOKING FORWARD....to starting a new investing year in 17 market days. A fresh start.....not that the returns have been bad.....they have actually been EXCEPTIONAL.
